ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
Lets get it fellas.
Atleast on DKs its been separated into a Sat Slate/Sun Slate/or all Weekend Slate. (All can be showdown'd of course).
Instead of the great/good/meh/bad ASR/ALY's I'll actually tell you where they rank 1 to 12.
Sat Slate/Main Slate
SEA/SFO
Seahawks have a bad P/RB matchup.
49ers have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
SFO D is ranked the best (/12) ASR matchup (bad for Geno), SFO DLine has the best (1st) ALY push (bad for Walker).
SEA D is ranked 4th best ASR matchup (meh for Purdy). SEA DLine has the worst (12th) ALY push (great for CMC/Mitchell).
49ers TTR is 2nd.
Seahawks TTR is 11th.
Pace of play is 5th overall, OURank is 6th (last).
- Injuries - SEA - On D, LB Brooks (94%) is out for 2nd week, 3 notable Q's, DE Harris (59%)/DT Woods (39%)/S Neal (84%). On O, no WR Goodwin, no RB Homer, RBs Dallas/Walker Q, no TE Dissly, TE Fant Q.
- SFO - On D, a handful of Q's, but ultimately healthier than usual. On O, CMC is Q.
- I personally think SFO smacks SEA, as they couldn't be further apart on mostly every metric. At best I would one-off a SEA pass catcher, atleast for the sat slate, for the MS, I understand avoiding completely. I will mention, in a do or die game last week, SEA played Walker 87% of snaps (his most since wk10), and he had 24 opportunities. The problem is, I don't think he'll maintain a 5.8 YPC, and he only had 1 target. If you really envision SEA having success, I think you go all in on Walker, as he'll be super low owned, and his usage would be insane in that scenario, but I don't I can do it. I'm not sure how roster constuction will be yet, and how hard it'll be to fit in some players, but a punt option could be Cade Johnson (or Young), as they both seemed to pass treadwell as the WR3 post Goodwin. Johnson had the higher of the snap counts at 41%, and if they really do play from behind, it should only be higher. I almost don't care if Fant is in, Parkinson has out snapped him in both of the last 2 weeks, and has had more targets (10 to 7), plus there's a chance fant isn't in. Parkinson is the SEA player I'd one-off the most, as he's also min. priced.
SFO has the 2nd highest TT, you want to be a part of it, I think both CMC and Mitchell are worth their price (in Sat Slate you can even consider rostering both IMO.). In 6 games with Purdy, Kittle has had 3 mutli-TD games, and 7 total TDs, I don't think I'll go here to often, as I believe he'll be over owned, and definitely has a path to failure (vs other TEs). With Deevo back, Jennings saw his snap count plummet to 42%, and that was in a blow out, in a close game he's unplayable, and in a blowout, he won't get targets. I'm not going to Deebo yet, he had just 4 opportunities last week, I'd like to think it ticks higher and higher as the playoffs continue (if they continue to win) but I'll wait. Aiyuk still had a 25% target share last week, and its what he had since Purdy has taken over. I think as far as pass catchers go, I'd like to have him the most, he's definitely the aDOT/r guy too of the big 3, just know a 25% target share on just 20 pass attempts is still just 5 targets..... If you want to take a shot on Purdy stacks, as he's incredibly cheap, with a good TTR, I have no problem with it, I'd save it for mass entering.
My thoughts on the game itself --- SFO crushes/cruises.
LAC/JAC
Chargers have a great P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Jags have a great RB matchup, bad P matchup.
LAC D has the 3rd worst (10th) ASR matchup (great for Lawrence). LAC DLine has the 3rd worst (10th) ALY push (great for Etienne).
JAC D has the worst (12th) ASR matchup (great for Herbert). JAC DLine has the 2nd best ALY push (bad for Ekeler).
Chargers TTR is 4th.
Jags TTR is T-7th.
Pace of play is 2nd overall, OURank is 2nd.
- Injuries - LAC - On OL, T Slater has been designated to return (2nd best rated OLineman on team). On O, WR Williams is Q.
- JAC - On D, DE Smoot (45%) is out for 3rd week. On OL, T Robinson (2nd best rated) is out for 3rd week. On O, WR Agnew is Q (so is QB Lawrence).
- I meannn we have the second most pass happy team in the league (LAC), with the best ASR matchup, a great P DVOA matchup, and the second highest pace and O/U ranking, oh and possibly returning a great T too. This is one of my favorite stacks of the slate, and with an injured williams, it creates more concentration to Allen/Ekeler, and gives us a possible opportunity to roster cheap WRs if we want to go there. I don't think I can stomach playing Everett.... LAC has 3 healthy TE's past 2 weeks, and all received no less than 34% snap count, and no more than 56% snap count.... I'd only consider a McKitty/Parham (prefer Parham) if you want leverage of the similarly priced Parkinson. We have to wait for Williams status at WR, but even still, Palmer looks like he had a 60%~ snap floor with him in, and 80% plus without him, I'm not sure I go there if Williams is in, as I wish he was cheaper but he wouldn't shock me to hit a HR. Carter can only be chosen if Williams is out.
I'm confused, and may have been something, but did something happen to Etienne last week? He played only 55% of snaps (really his lowest since becoming the sole starter), and the game was within 1 possession/neutral throughout, AND it was do or die game. That gives me concern. Having said that, the Titans run D is much better than the Chargers, so obviously I can see success, I'm just more worried than I thought I'd be. If Hasty truly has a path close to 50% of snaps again, I don't think he's a bad punt option at 4.6K in mass entering tourneys. I don't get how Zay Jones is that much cheaper than Kirk..... he's so cheap, idk if it even makes sense to consider Marvin either. I'd only consider Kirk if mass entering, and need to be different than the field, as everyone will flock to Zay between the 3, so I get that. Since Week 13, Engram has averaged over 8 targets/g, equaling about a 24% target share, for PPR formats, that's super safe, his only knock is his terribly low 3.5 aDOT/r, but I think JAC will be in a passing script, and he has the easiest matchup of the bunch and will be on my list.
My thoughts on the game itself --- I think LAC wins, as they won't have trouble scoring... Jags need to play clean, and try to control some time of possession.
Sunday Slate/Main Slate Cont.
MIA/BUF
Dolphins have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Bills have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
MIA D is ranked 5th worst (8th) in ASR matchup (good for Allen). MIA DLine has the 4th best ALY push (meh for Singletary/Cook).
BUF D is ranked 6th worst (7th) in ASR matchup (good for Thompson/Tua/Teddy). BUF DLine has the 5th best ALY push (meh for Wilson).
Dolphins TTR is 12th (last).
Bills TTR is 1st.
Pace of play is 4th overall, OURank is T-4th.
- Injuries - MIA - On D, notable LBs Phillips (73%)/Chubb (67%) are Q. On OL, they have 4 lineman Q, the notable one to pay attention to is Armstead. On O, no QB Tua, we still aren't sure on Teddy. WRs Wilson/Waddle are Q, RBs Mostert/Wilson are Q.
- BUF - On D, S Hamlin (86%) out for 3rd week, but S Hyde is designated to return from IR, notable DT/S Phillips (44%)/Poyer (96%) are Q. On O, WR McKenzie is Q.
- Wilson is more likely to play, and Mostert is more likely to sit. Wilson last week tied is miami high snap count at 65%, and if mostert is indeed out, I don't see how thats not hitting 70%+... these 2 backs are a game removed from a 15 target split, and I don't see them not falling behind in this one... I think Wilson is a 90%+ lock for me if Mostert is out. I won't ever talk anyone off Hill, the script suits them, and in weeks 4-6 with Thompson/Teddy he had a monster 32% target share. Idk how much Hill I'll end up having, but if you do like him, please take a share or two of Waddle just incase he outperforms. Sherfield is a decent punt option at min price if you want no other exposure to this offense, he's quietly played 60% of snaps practically all year. I know Gesicki just had the game of his year (sarcasm), but I still don't want him with Smythe active. he only played 38% of snaps last week. Pass.
My thoughts on the game itself --- Buffalo crushes/cruises.
NYG/MIN
Giants have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Vikings have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
NYG D is ranked 6th best in ASR matchup (meh for Cousins). NYG DLine has the 2nd worst (11th) ALY push (great for Cook).
MIN D is ranked 3rd best in ASR matchup (bad for Jones). MIN DLine has the 6th worst (7th) ALY push. (good for Barkley).
Giants TTR is T-7th.
Vikes TTR is 3rd.
Pace of play is 3rd, OURank is 1st.
- Injuries - NYG - On D, 4 notable Q's, CBs/DE/LB Pinnock (68%)/Jackson (87%)/Williams (75%)/Ojulari (54%).
- MIN - On D, CB Evans (39%) may be returning, CB/S Dantzler (75%)/H. Smith (95%) are Q. On OL, best rated T O'Neil is out, G Schlottmann is out, C Bradbury is Q, T Brandel may return from IR.
- I've said this many times, but we have Pass Funnel D in Minny coming to town. I'll note Dantzler didn't really play any or much of the last 10 games for MIN, and he should be returning, so maybe that helps a smidge, but it doesn't matter to me value wise. The Giants pass catchers are so cheap, the problem is just picking which one we want. All 3 range from 3.9K to 4.2K, from weeks 14 to 17, they all played 80-99% of snaps. In that time frame, James/Hodgins/Slayton had aDOT/rs of 7/8.3/7.2, targets(target shares) of 32(25.4%)/27(21.4%)/19(15.1%), Hodgins/James averaged 1 RZ target/g in that span, Slayton had a total of 0 redzone targets. I think they are all EXTREMELY close to each other, and any of them can beat the other, so I won't fault you for picking any, but my money will be on Hodgins>James>>>>>>>>Slayton. In that same timeframe of this 3 WR set, Bellinger has averaged just 3 targets a game, and 1 total RZ target in 4 games, his aDOT was nice a 7.1, but not worth it IMO, there's better options. I won't talk anyone off barkley this week, we know he's seeing a minimum of 80% of snaps, he's recently shown a big PPR floor in 2 of his most recent games (hitting 10 targets vs minny last time), and is one of the few choices that can see the most opportunities this week.
Adorree Jackson/Xavier McKinney both didn't play week 16 vs MIn, and Ojulari got hurt mid game, plus MIN is without their best rated T who got hurt last week... this could be a different/more difficult game for MIN than expected. Having said that, I don't want this to take away from a team that has the 3rd best TTR, a good overall pace, and the best OU of the week, I just may be slightlyyyy underweight the field. Dalvin Cook post the MIN bye, up until they clinched, was averaged an extremely solid 82%~ snap count (taking out the blowout loss to DAL), which equaled a 22 opportunity average, 4.5~ of which were targets. If people see how he ended the season (when MIN are clinched), as well as the higher priced choices above him (Ekeler/Barkley/CMC) then I actually may be slightly overweight here (Despite what I just said earlier), as I think he has a solid floor, and it is what NYG have been weaker against. In that same timeframe, post bye to game clincher (taking out DAL game), Jefferson has had fewer than 11 targets just once, and it was the first game of the range (post bye) where he had 8.... if you're telling me 11 targets is his floor, its very had to pass him up if you actually have the salary range to pay it, he finished his last 3 games with no fewer than 15 targets, and 30+ fps in each, so I get it... do it if you want, I'm not avoiding him, I just might be lower than the field, I need to check how the roster construction works. Thielen is so disrespected being priced below Osborn. In that same 8 game stretch mentioned twice already, Osborn had roughly the same (but lower) target share as Theilen, but 33% of it came in that insame fell behind comeback win vs indy. Aside from that game, he hit over 5 targets once, and has the lowest aDOT/r of the 3 by a mile (4.1), with just 3 RZ targets across those 8 games. Thielen however has an aDOT/r of 8.2, gets more consistent targets, and averaged 1 RZ target/g.... in no way am I playing Osborn, and if he burns me so be it. I will have some theilen. I'm kind of torn on Hockenson, he actually had his best game vs the Giants this year, but was just 1 of 2 games he scored a TD in, he is averaging 8+ targets a game as a viking, with a meh aDOT/r of 5.4, imo he is a better version of Engram, but when ownership comes into play, I think I may fall down to Engram more.
My thoughts on the game itself --- I came into the week, and even into starting this writeup thinking I'd like Minnesota, and while a part of me still does, I actually think giants are a smarter option/play (even if I want Jefferson to advance). If Jones continues to protect the ball like he has crushed in doing this year, they should win this game.
BAL/CIN
Ravens have a meh P/RB matchup.
Bengals have a meh P matchup, bad RB matchup.
BAL D is ranked 2nd best in ASR matchup (bad for Burrow). BAL DLine has the 5th worst (8th) ALY push (good for MIxon).
CIN D is ranked 5th best in ASR matchup (meh for Huntley/Lamar). CIN DLine has the 4th worst (9th) ALY push (good for Edwards/Dobbins/Drake).
Ravens TTR is 10th.
Bengals TTR is T-5th.
Pace of play is 6th (last), OURank is T-4th.
- Injuries - BAL - On D, CB Stephens (59%) is Q. On O, RB Edwards is Q, QB Jackson is D.
- CIN - On D, CB Taylor-Britt (93%) is Q. On OL, they are now missing their top 2 OLineman in Collins and Cappa.
- If Edwards is in, I probably avoid this 3 headed monster. The problem with Dobbins is he has a 0 to 1 target ceiling (lol), he only surpassed that in weeks 3/4 when Drake was out, well Drake is playing. Because of this, Dobbins needs like 100+ on the ground as well as a TD to really slate break. While he could do this, I'll limit him to just a couple of lineups max (strictly because he will go unowned, and in the event he does produce a good performance, you'll have a leg up.) If edwards is out and you really want to punt Drake (and it allows you to jam top end guys at other positions), go for it, but you're TD hunting at that point, so its hard to trust, plus you probably get better value out of Cook/Mitchell, even Hasty. Its hysterical to me that the most expensive BAL WR (Robinson) is only 3.5K (the lowest a WR can be is 3K)..... Now in Huntleys 5 starts, he averages like 22 pass attempts a game, and WRs are the bottom of the totem pole when it comes to that, but if you think BAL plays from behind (like vegas does), we could get something closer to last week where Brown attempted 44 passes, and Robinson ended up with 9 targets.... I'd save them strictly for that kind of script (a CIN game stack). While the WRs struggle to break over 60-70% of snaps, we know BAL likes 2 TE sets, and we know Andrews is a 85-95% snap guy, weeks 13-17 with Huntley, Andrews had a 30% target share, with a good aDOT/r of 8.3 for TEs, he's probably my #1 choice....
Unpopular opinion, but I'll be underweight the entire field on CIN's offense. There's just to many red flags. From an overall game perspective, 1) they'll be popular, 2) the pace of the game is the worst, and 3) they're down their 2 best OLineman. From Mixon's stand point, prior to his Week 11 injury, he was playing 72%~ of snaps, and had at least 17 opportunities (never less than 3 targets) in ALL 9 games but one. Since returning from his injury, he's broken 17 opportunities just once in 4 games, and got over 60% of snaps just once. No question about it, Perine has spelled him more than ever. While he may be more of a decoy out there and imo not an option, Mixon has some relevancy because he still has a PPR floor to him, I don't hate him, but I don't love him. Hurst doesn't get you up at night, he's good for 4-5 shallow targets, and I want upside, and I'd rather punt lower, or go up at that position. Just 4 times in the last 10 games has the CIN big 3 WRs played together. 13/15/16/18. Chase has had a 27% target share in those games, around 11+ a game, with the 2nd best aDOT/r, Higgins has had a 18% target share, around 7+ a game, but with the best aDOT/r, and Boyd is at 13% target share, aounrd 5+ a game, with the lowest aDOT/r. I don't think I can play Boyd, IMO he's the 4th option at best, and receives to shallow of routes. Chase has been a PPR monster of late, so I can't fault anyone for going there, as he has a great floor/ceiling combo, but you can't afford all the monsters, and he's probably the one I avoid the most. Higgins is probably my favorite of the 3, his mid priced, has HR potential, and gets good volume in this offense.
My thoughts on the game itself --- I actually feel like BAL can keep this game competitive, and has the most upset potential of the 3 big spreads this week. Not really seeing much love, which makes me kind of like it more.
Mon Night Showdown/Main Slate Cont.
DAL/TBB
Cowboys have a meh P/RB matchup.
Bucs have a bad P/RB matchup.
DAL D is ranked 2nd worst (11th) in ASR matchup (great for Brady). DAL DLine has the 3rd best ALY push (bad for Fournette/White).
TBB D is ranked 4th worst (9th) in ASR matchup (good for Dak). TBB DLine has the 6th best ALY push (meh for Zeke/Pollard).
Cowboys TTR is T-5th.
Bucs TTR is 9th.
Pace of play is 1st overall, OURank is 3rd.
- Injuries - DAL - On D, DT Hankins (35%) is returning, DE Lawrence (61%) is Q.
- TBB - On D, 2 notable Q's in DT/S Vea (63%)/Ryan (73%). On OL, C Hainsey is Q, but Jensen may be returning? On O, TE Rudolph is Q.
- This game is tough for me, and not sure exactly what direction I'm going. When it comes to DAL, since Wk 12, Zeke/Pollard have been in practically a 5050 split, but we know both DL's have ALY advantages here, and even though the opportunities seem the same, pollards leans into the target area than zeke, which equals more DFS points, and would be the back I play of the 2 (if you want to be contrarian and go Zeke, be my guest... don't think I will). Hilton has seen his snaps rise in 3 straight games, from 16% > 28% > 39%, what's weird is it didn't really take away snaps from Lamb/Gallup and a lot from Brown. I'm going to put that more on them being down 2 to 3 possession for the entire 2nd half, and most of the 2nd quarter too. I can't trust hilton yet, and brown is the one hurt the most by this, so both are off my board, especially when Gallup is hitting 85-90% of snaps, and is priced almost just as cheap, I think he has higher expected value over his price and should be on your player pool. Lamb is one of the many Alpha WRs playing this weekend and was 4th among WRs in total team target share for the year. The only knock is that his team isn't as pass happy as the rest of the guys around him (aside from London - lol), and he has the lowest aDOT/r of the group, I'll definitely have some of him, but if you project TBB to lead/keep it close, I'd go heavier, if you think DAL plays with a bit of a lead, I'd go much more underweight. Schultz has been solid, since his return from the PCL? injury, he's averaged about 6 targets a game, with an ok 6.6 aDOT/r, as well as almost 1.5 RZ targets/g... He is a floor guy, who can have spike weeks, and he doesn't really break the bank so I get going here.
When it comes to TBB backfield, pass heavy/happy Brady is allowing them to co-exist. Since week 13 (when fournette returned from injury), Fournette/White were in a 60/50-50/40 split, combined they're averaging 32 opportunities a game, 17 for fournette, 15 for white, each averaging atleast 5 targets a game... which is each better than what some sole starters for other teams can say. They're both cheap, and I think either can be played. Godwin/Evans are the only WRs I'd consider on TBB, they just get so much more of the target %, and should be more than double the price of Gage/Jones, who eat into eachother. I've said this many times (and it worked beautifully vs Carolina), but Evans sees slightly more than 1 target less than godwin, but the aDOT/r is MASSIVELY different.... on the season its 11.8 to 4.8 (even slightly wider over the last 6~ weeks), if picking just 1, I'd go evans like 90% of the time. I know Otton is definitely the de facto pass catching TE on the team, but with Brate & Rudolph back, I see an unsafe floor, and he wont hit his typical 80-90% of snaps when those other guys are missing... 65% seems to be his cap on his best days. I'm fine taking a shot in tourneys if you want, but I won't be.
My thoughts on the game itself --- I'm most uncomfortable here... as I don't know how it'll play out, my gut tells me not to go against Brady at home, and DAL D has been very vulnerable at times (and elite at other times), and while the TBB O has been so shoddy all year (despite ramping up to end the season), the D has been quietly solid. But overall, I do think DAL is better, so idk.... I need help here.
Atleast on DKs its been separated into a Sat Slate/Sun Slate/or all Weekend Slate. (All can be showdown'd of course).
Instead of the great/good/meh/bad ASR/ALY's I'll actually tell you where they rank 1 to 12.
Sat Slate/Main Slate
SEA/SFO
Seahawks have a bad P/RB matchup.
49ers have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
SFO D is ranked the best (/12) ASR matchup (bad for Geno), SFO DLine has the best (1st) ALY push (bad for Walker).
SEA D is ranked 4th best ASR matchup (meh for Purdy). SEA DLine has the worst (12th) ALY push (great for CMC/Mitchell).
49ers TTR is 2nd.
Seahawks TTR is 11th.
Pace of play is 5th overall, OURank is 6th (last).
- Injuries - SEA - On D, LB Brooks (94%) is out for 2nd week, 3 notable Q's, DE Harris (59%)/DT Woods (39%)/S Neal (84%). On O, no WR Goodwin, no RB Homer, RBs Dallas/Walker Q, no TE Dissly, TE Fant Q.
- SFO - On D, a handful of Q's, but ultimately healthier than usual. On O, CMC is Q.
- I personally think SFO smacks SEA, as they couldn't be further apart on mostly every metric. At best I would one-off a SEA pass catcher, atleast for the sat slate, for the MS, I understand avoiding completely. I will mention, in a do or die game last week, SEA played Walker 87% of snaps (his most since wk10), and he had 24 opportunities. The problem is, I don't think he'll maintain a 5.8 YPC, and he only had 1 target. If you really envision SEA having success, I think you go all in on Walker, as he'll be super low owned, and his usage would be insane in that scenario, but I don't I can do it. I'm not sure how roster constuction will be yet, and how hard it'll be to fit in some players, but a punt option could be Cade Johnson (or Young), as they both seemed to pass treadwell as the WR3 post Goodwin. Johnson had the higher of the snap counts at 41%, and if they really do play from behind, it should only be higher. I almost don't care if Fant is in, Parkinson has out snapped him in both of the last 2 weeks, and has had more targets (10 to 7), plus there's a chance fant isn't in. Parkinson is the SEA player I'd one-off the most, as he's also min. priced.
SFO has the 2nd highest TT, you want to be a part of it, I think both CMC and Mitchell are worth their price (in Sat Slate you can even consider rostering both IMO.). In 6 games with Purdy, Kittle has had 3 mutli-TD games, and 7 total TDs, I don't think I'll go here to often, as I believe he'll be over owned, and definitely has a path to failure (vs other TEs). With Deevo back, Jennings saw his snap count plummet to 42%, and that was in a blow out, in a close game he's unplayable, and in a blowout, he won't get targets. I'm not going to Deebo yet, he had just 4 opportunities last week, I'd like to think it ticks higher and higher as the playoffs continue (if they continue to win) but I'll wait. Aiyuk still had a 25% target share last week, and its what he had since Purdy has taken over. I think as far as pass catchers go, I'd like to have him the most, he's definitely the aDOT/r guy too of the big 3, just know a 25% target share on just 20 pass attempts is still just 5 targets..... If you want to take a shot on Purdy stacks, as he's incredibly cheap, with a good TTR, I have no problem with it, I'd save it for mass entering.
My thoughts on the game itself --- SFO crushes/cruises.
LAC/JAC
Chargers have a great P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Jags have a great RB matchup, bad P matchup.
LAC D has the 3rd worst (10th) ASR matchup (great for Lawrence). LAC DLine has the 3rd worst (10th) ALY push (great for Etienne).
JAC D has the worst (12th) ASR matchup (great for Herbert). JAC DLine has the 2nd best ALY push (bad for Ekeler).
Chargers TTR is 4th.
Jags TTR is T-7th.
Pace of play is 2nd overall, OURank is 2nd.
- Injuries - LAC - On OL, T Slater has been designated to return (2nd best rated OLineman on team). On O, WR Williams is Q.
- JAC - On D, DE Smoot (45%) is out for 3rd week. On OL, T Robinson (2nd best rated) is out for 3rd week. On O, WR Agnew is Q (so is QB Lawrence).
- I meannn we have the second most pass happy team in the league (LAC), with the best ASR matchup, a great P DVOA matchup, and the second highest pace and O/U ranking, oh and possibly returning a great T too. This is one of my favorite stacks of the slate, and with an injured williams, it creates more concentration to Allen/Ekeler, and gives us a possible opportunity to roster cheap WRs if we want to go there. I don't think I can stomach playing Everett.... LAC has 3 healthy TE's past 2 weeks, and all received no less than 34% snap count, and no more than 56% snap count.... I'd only consider a McKitty/Parham (prefer Parham) if you want leverage of the similarly priced Parkinson. We have to wait for Williams status at WR, but even still, Palmer looks like he had a 60%~ snap floor with him in, and 80% plus without him, I'm not sure I go there if Williams is in, as I wish he was cheaper but he wouldn't shock me to hit a HR. Carter can only be chosen if Williams is out.
I'm confused, and may have been something, but did something happen to Etienne last week? He played only 55% of snaps (really his lowest since becoming the sole starter), and the game was within 1 possession/neutral throughout, AND it was do or die game. That gives me concern. Having said that, the Titans run D is much better than the Chargers, so obviously I can see success, I'm just more worried than I thought I'd be. If Hasty truly has a path close to 50% of snaps again, I don't think he's a bad punt option at 4.6K in mass entering tourneys. I don't get how Zay Jones is that much cheaper than Kirk..... he's so cheap, idk if it even makes sense to consider Marvin either. I'd only consider Kirk if mass entering, and need to be different than the field, as everyone will flock to Zay between the 3, so I get that. Since Week 13, Engram has averaged over 8 targets/g, equaling about a 24% target share, for PPR formats, that's super safe, his only knock is his terribly low 3.5 aDOT/r, but I think JAC will be in a passing script, and he has the easiest matchup of the bunch and will be on my list.
My thoughts on the game itself --- I think LAC wins, as they won't have trouble scoring... Jags need to play clean, and try to control some time of possession.
Sunday Slate/Main Slate Cont.
MIA/BUF
Dolphins have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Bills have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
MIA D is ranked 5th worst (8th) in ASR matchup (good for Allen). MIA DLine has the 4th best ALY push (meh for Singletary/Cook).
BUF D is ranked 6th worst (7th) in ASR matchup (good for Thompson/Tua/Teddy). BUF DLine has the 5th best ALY push (meh for Wilson).
Dolphins TTR is 12th (last).
Bills TTR is 1st.
Pace of play is 4th overall, OURank is T-4th.
- Injuries - MIA - On D, notable LBs Phillips (73%)/Chubb (67%) are Q. On OL, they have 4 lineman Q, the notable one to pay attention to is Armstead. On O, no QB Tua, we still aren't sure on Teddy. WRs Wilson/Waddle are Q, RBs Mostert/Wilson are Q.
- BUF - On D, S Hamlin (86%) out for 3rd week, but S Hyde is designated to return from IR, notable DT/S Phillips (44%)/Poyer (96%) are Q. On O, WR McKenzie is Q.
- Wilson is more likely to play, and Mostert is more likely to sit. Wilson last week tied is miami high snap count at 65%, and if mostert is indeed out, I don't see how thats not hitting 70%+... these 2 backs are a game removed from a 15 target split, and I don't see them not falling behind in this one... I think Wilson is a 90%+ lock for me if Mostert is out. I won't ever talk anyone off Hill, the script suits them, and in weeks 4-6 with Thompson/Teddy he had a monster 32% target share. Idk how much Hill I'll end up having, but if you do like him, please take a share or two of Waddle just incase he outperforms. Sherfield is a decent punt option at min price if you want no other exposure to this offense, he's quietly played 60% of snaps practically all year. I know Gesicki just had the game of his year (sarcasm), but I still don't want him with Smythe active. he only played 38% of snaps last week. Pass.
My thoughts on the game itself --- Buffalo crushes/cruises.
NYG/MIN
Giants have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Vikings have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
NYG D is ranked 6th best in ASR matchup (meh for Cousins). NYG DLine has the 2nd worst (11th) ALY push (great for Cook).
MIN D is ranked 3rd best in ASR matchup (bad for Jones). MIN DLine has the 6th worst (7th) ALY push. (good for Barkley).
Giants TTR is T-7th.
Vikes TTR is 3rd.
Pace of play is 3rd, OURank is 1st.
- Injuries - NYG - On D, 4 notable Q's, CBs/DE/LB Pinnock (68%)/Jackson (87%)/Williams (75%)/Ojulari (54%).
- MIN - On D, CB Evans (39%) may be returning, CB/S Dantzler (75%)/H. Smith (95%) are Q. On OL, best rated T O'Neil is out, G Schlottmann is out, C Bradbury is Q, T Brandel may return from IR.
- I've said this many times, but we have Pass Funnel D in Minny coming to town. I'll note Dantzler didn't really play any or much of the last 10 games for MIN, and he should be returning, so maybe that helps a smidge, but it doesn't matter to me value wise. The Giants pass catchers are so cheap, the problem is just picking which one we want. All 3 range from 3.9K to 4.2K, from weeks 14 to 17, they all played 80-99% of snaps. In that time frame, James/Hodgins/Slayton had aDOT/rs of 7/8.3/7.2, targets(target shares) of 32(25.4%)/27(21.4%)/19(15.1%), Hodgins/James averaged 1 RZ target/g in that span, Slayton had a total of 0 redzone targets. I think they are all EXTREMELY close to each other, and any of them can beat the other, so I won't fault you for picking any, but my money will be on Hodgins>James>>>>>>>>Slayton. In that same timeframe of this 3 WR set, Bellinger has averaged just 3 targets a game, and 1 total RZ target in 4 games, his aDOT was nice a 7.1, but not worth it IMO, there's better options. I won't talk anyone off barkley this week, we know he's seeing a minimum of 80% of snaps, he's recently shown a big PPR floor in 2 of his most recent games (hitting 10 targets vs minny last time), and is one of the few choices that can see the most opportunities this week.
Adorree Jackson/Xavier McKinney both didn't play week 16 vs MIn, and Ojulari got hurt mid game, plus MIN is without their best rated T who got hurt last week... this could be a different/more difficult game for MIN than expected. Having said that, I don't want this to take away from a team that has the 3rd best TTR, a good overall pace, and the best OU of the week, I just may be slightlyyyy underweight the field. Dalvin Cook post the MIN bye, up until they clinched, was averaged an extremely solid 82%~ snap count (taking out the blowout loss to DAL), which equaled a 22 opportunity average, 4.5~ of which were targets. If people see how he ended the season (when MIN are clinched), as well as the higher priced choices above him (Ekeler/Barkley/CMC) then I actually may be slightly overweight here (Despite what I just said earlier), as I think he has a solid floor, and it is what NYG have been weaker against. In that same timeframe, post bye to game clincher (taking out DAL game), Jefferson has had fewer than 11 targets just once, and it was the first game of the range (post bye) where he had 8.... if you're telling me 11 targets is his floor, its very had to pass him up if you actually have the salary range to pay it, he finished his last 3 games with no fewer than 15 targets, and 30+ fps in each, so I get it... do it if you want, I'm not avoiding him, I just might be lower than the field, I need to check how the roster construction works. Thielen is so disrespected being priced below Osborn. In that same 8 game stretch mentioned twice already, Osborn had roughly the same (but lower) target share as Theilen, but 33% of it came in that insame fell behind comeback win vs indy. Aside from that game, he hit over 5 targets once, and has the lowest aDOT/r of the 3 by a mile (4.1), with just 3 RZ targets across those 8 games. Thielen however has an aDOT/r of 8.2, gets more consistent targets, and averaged 1 RZ target/g.... in no way am I playing Osborn, and if he burns me so be it. I will have some theilen. I'm kind of torn on Hockenson, he actually had his best game vs the Giants this year, but was just 1 of 2 games he scored a TD in, he is averaging 8+ targets a game as a viking, with a meh aDOT/r of 5.4, imo he is a better version of Engram, but when ownership comes into play, I think I may fall down to Engram more.
My thoughts on the game itself --- I came into the week, and even into starting this writeup thinking I'd like Minnesota, and while a part of me still does, I actually think giants are a smarter option/play (even if I want Jefferson to advance). If Jones continues to protect the ball like he has crushed in doing this year, they should win this game.
BAL/CIN
Ravens have a meh P/RB matchup.
Bengals have a meh P matchup, bad RB matchup.
BAL D is ranked 2nd best in ASR matchup (bad for Burrow). BAL DLine has the 5th worst (8th) ALY push (good for MIxon).
CIN D is ranked 5th best in ASR matchup (meh for Huntley/Lamar). CIN DLine has the 4th worst (9th) ALY push (good for Edwards/Dobbins/Drake).
Ravens TTR is 10th.
Bengals TTR is T-5th.
Pace of play is 6th (last), OURank is T-4th.
- Injuries - BAL - On D, CB Stephens (59%) is Q. On O, RB Edwards is Q, QB Jackson is D.
- CIN - On D, CB Taylor-Britt (93%) is Q. On OL, they are now missing their top 2 OLineman in Collins and Cappa.
- If Edwards is in, I probably avoid this 3 headed monster. The problem with Dobbins is he has a 0 to 1 target ceiling (lol), he only surpassed that in weeks 3/4 when Drake was out, well Drake is playing. Because of this, Dobbins needs like 100+ on the ground as well as a TD to really slate break. While he could do this, I'll limit him to just a couple of lineups max (strictly because he will go unowned, and in the event he does produce a good performance, you'll have a leg up.) If edwards is out and you really want to punt Drake (and it allows you to jam top end guys at other positions), go for it, but you're TD hunting at that point, so its hard to trust, plus you probably get better value out of Cook/Mitchell, even Hasty. Its hysterical to me that the most expensive BAL WR (Robinson) is only 3.5K (the lowest a WR can be is 3K)..... Now in Huntleys 5 starts, he averages like 22 pass attempts a game, and WRs are the bottom of the totem pole when it comes to that, but if you think BAL plays from behind (like vegas does), we could get something closer to last week where Brown attempted 44 passes, and Robinson ended up with 9 targets.... I'd save them strictly for that kind of script (a CIN game stack). While the WRs struggle to break over 60-70% of snaps, we know BAL likes 2 TE sets, and we know Andrews is a 85-95% snap guy, weeks 13-17 with Huntley, Andrews had a 30% target share, with a good aDOT/r of 8.3 for TEs, he's probably my #1 choice....
Unpopular opinion, but I'll be underweight the entire field on CIN's offense. There's just to many red flags. From an overall game perspective, 1) they'll be popular, 2) the pace of the game is the worst, and 3) they're down their 2 best OLineman. From Mixon's stand point, prior to his Week 11 injury, he was playing 72%~ of snaps, and had at least 17 opportunities (never less than 3 targets) in ALL 9 games but one. Since returning from his injury, he's broken 17 opportunities just once in 4 games, and got over 60% of snaps just once. No question about it, Perine has spelled him more than ever. While he may be more of a decoy out there and imo not an option, Mixon has some relevancy because he still has a PPR floor to him, I don't hate him, but I don't love him. Hurst doesn't get you up at night, he's good for 4-5 shallow targets, and I want upside, and I'd rather punt lower, or go up at that position. Just 4 times in the last 10 games has the CIN big 3 WRs played together. 13/15/16/18. Chase has had a 27% target share in those games, around 11+ a game, with the 2nd best aDOT/r, Higgins has had a 18% target share, around 7+ a game, but with the best aDOT/r, and Boyd is at 13% target share, aounrd 5+ a game, with the lowest aDOT/r. I don't think I can play Boyd, IMO he's the 4th option at best, and receives to shallow of routes. Chase has been a PPR monster of late, so I can't fault anyone for going there, as he has a great floor/ceiling combo, but you can't afford all the monsters, and he's probably the one I avoid the most. Higgins is probably my favorite of the 3, his mid priced, has HR potential, and gets good volume in this offense.
My thoughts on the game itself --- I actually feel like BAL can keep this game competitive, and has the most upset potential of the 3 big spreads this week. Not really seeing much love, which makes me kind of like it more.
Mon Night Showdown/Main Slate Cont.
DAL/TBB
Cowboys have a meh P/RB matchup.
Bucs have a bad P/RB matchup.
DAL D is ranked 2nd worst (11th) in ASR matchup (great for Brady). DAL DLine has the 3rd best ALY push (bad for Fournette/White).
TBB D is ranked 4th worst (9th) in ASR matchup (good for Dak). TBB DLine has the 6th best ALY push (meh for Zeke/Pollard).
Cowboys TTR is T-5th.
Bucs TTR is 9th.
Pace of play is 1st overall, OURank is 3rd.
- Injuries - DAL - On D, DT Hankins (35%) is returning, DE Lawrence (61%) is Q.
- TBB - On D, 2 notable Q's in DT/S Vea (63%)/Ryan (73%). On OL, C Hainsey is Q, but Jensen may be returning? On O, TE Rudolph is Q.
- This game is tough for me, and not sure exactly what direction I'm going. When it comes to DAL, since Wk 12, Zeke/Pollard have been in practically a 5050 split, but we know both DL's have ALY advantages here, and even though the opportunities seem the same, pollards leans into the target area than zeke, which equals more DFS points, and would be the back I play of the 2 (if you want to be contrarian and go Zeke, be my guest... don't think I will). Hilton has seen his snaps rise in 3 straight games, from 16% > 28% > 39%, what's weird is it didn't really take away snaps from Lamb/Gallup and a lot from Brown. I'm going to put that more on them being down 2 to 3 possession for the entire 2nd half, and most of the 2nd quarter too. I can't trust hilton yet, and brown is the one hurt the most by this, so both are off my board, especially when Gallup is hitting 85-90% of snaps, and is priced almost just as cheap, I think he has higher expected value over his price and should be on your player pool. Lamb is one of the many Alpha WRs playing this weekend and was 4th among WRs in total team target share for the year. The only knock is that his team isn't as pass happy as the rest of the guys around him (aside from London - lol), and he has the lowest aDOT/r of the group, I'll definitely have some of him, but if you project TBB to lead/keep it close, I'd go heavier, if you think DAL plays with a bit of a lead, I'd go much more underweight. Schultz has been solid, since his return from the PCL? injury, he's averaged about 6 targets a game, with an ok 6.6 aDOT/r, as well as almost 1.5 RZ targets/g... He is a floor guy, who can have spike weeks, and he doesn't really break the bank so I get going here.
When it comes to TBB backfield, pass heavy/happy Brady is allowing them to co-exist. Since week 13 (when fournette returned from injury), Fournette/White were in a 60/50-50/40 split, combined they're averaging 32 opportunities a game, 17 for fournette, 15 for white, each averaging atleast 5 targets a game... which is each better than what some sole starters for other teams can say. They're both cheap, and I think either can be played. Godwin/Evans are the only WRs I'd consider on TBB, they just get so much more of the target %, and should be more than double the price of Gage/Jones, who eat into eachother. I've said this many times (and it worked beautifully vs Carolina), but Evans sees slightly more than 1 target less than godwin, but the aDOT/r is MASSIVELY different.... on the season its 11.8 to 4.8 (even slightly wider over the last 6~ weeks), if picking just 1, I'd go evans like 90% of the time. I know Otton is definitely the de facto pass catching TE on the team, but with Brate & Rudolph back, I see an unsafe floor, and he wont hit his typical 80-90% of snaps when those other guys are missing... 65% seems to be his cap on his best days. I'm fine taking a shot in tourneys if you want, but I won't be.
My thoughts on the game itself --- I'm most uncomfortable here... as I don't know how it'll play out, my gut tells me not to go against Brady at home, and DAL D has been very vulnerable at times (and elite at other times), and while the TBB O has been so shoddy all year (despite ramping up to end the season), the D has been quietly solid. But overall, I do think DAL is better, so idk.... I need help here.
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