DFS/Props Week 9 Discussion
- Thread starter ScopeY
- Start date
ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
Thursday Night/Showdown Slate
BAL@MIA
Ravens have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Dolphins have a great P/RB matchup.
Lamar has a bad pressure rate situation.
Tua has a good pressure rate situation, but a meh pass potential. Achane has a good rush potential.
Pace of play is 13th (bad).
- Lamar is back, I want to say he is a capt. candidate due to his legs, and all around upside, but maybe we think they take it easy on him in that regard? I'm of the mindset that if they have to cater to a different gameplan for him then he wouldn't be starting today (not to say they won't go more conservative quicker if they get up big -- I get that). Anyways, I know Henry can smash, but for DFS he has such a low floor, and averaged just 0.67 targets/g with lamar through those 3 games (I know one game was a blowout though, but still), I will have some shares of him where mass entering, but otherwise I will be off. I would include Mitchell only if we believe (and it is possible) BAL plays with a 2+ possession lead, he is just 1.4K, even 42 total yards, 0 catches, and he is worth it. It is a showdown slate, so we have to look at everything, but there's a scenario MIA sets the pace on this defense, and Justice Hill may be the player that nobody if targets (especially with mitchells showing last week, and the run game matchup vs MIA), but if you go like a 4-2 MIA build, and expect them to do well, he can be a really good leverage option. With Lamar, Flowers had a really good 30.7% target share through 3 games, and an aDOT of 10.2, everyone sees the matchup on the ground, and rightfully so, but I think he is a sneaky plug in that probably has suppressed ownership. I am not getting cute with these other WRs, I'll have some shares of Bateman where mass entering, but not much at all. Just last week, all of these TEs had 1 RZ target, Likely is Keaton Mitchell cheap, and we can see that attacking MIA through the air is typically done via TEs not WRs, while I don't hate Andrews, Likely getting to 10 points is equivalent to Andrews getting 25 points, and I think the TD can come from anywhere, and we've seen breakout games from Likely before, I will have my fair share of him too.
Achane just does it all, even in a 24 point win last week, he still ended up with 7 targets, and he actually has 4 receiving TDs on the year, as they don't shy away from targeting him in the RZ either (6 on the season) --- the 25 opps last week came on just 55% of snaps too ---- it feels wrong not playing him in every lineup.... With Hill, Waddle had a 19.5% target share/8 aDOT, w/o Hill, his target share has only gone up to 23%, but his aDOT has ballooned to 15.8, which is much higher than his career avg too and is why he should be included too. Similar to BAL, I don't really care for these other WRs, I guess you can consider washington (Similar to Bateman comments above), he did have a 19% target share last week with no waller. Conner didn't hit 50% of snaps despite no Waller or Hill, he did have 2 targets, but he is priced at almost 3K, I think he can be viable for TD hunting, but I got to think Dulcich sees a bigger role with more familiarity to the offense, and if his snaps rise from 28% number last week, then he could be a steal at $600, really 1 8 yard catch and you are at least ok with it.
BAL@MIA
Ravens have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Dolphins have a great P/RB matchup.
Lamar has a bad pressure rate situation.
Tua has a good pressure rate situation, but a meh pass potential. Achane has a good rush potential.
Pace of play is 13th (bad).
- Lamar is back, I want to say he is a capt. candidate due to his legs, and all around upside, but maybe we think they take it easy on him in that regard? I'm of the mindset that if they have to cater to a different gameplan for him then he wouldn't be starting today (not to say they won't go more conservative quicker if they get up big -- I get that). Anyways, I know Henry can smash, but for DFS he has such a low floor, and averaged just 0.67 targets/g with lamar through those 3 games (I know one game was a blowout though, but still), I will have some shares of him where mass entering, but otherwise I will be off. I would include Mitchell only if we believe (and it is possible) BAL plays with a 2+ possession lead, he is just 1.4K, even 42 total yards, 0 catches, and he is worth it. It is a showdown slate, so we have to look at everything, but there's a scenario MIA sets the pace on this defense, and Justice Hill may be the player that nobody if targets (especially with mitchells showing last week, and the run game matchup vs MIA), but if you go like a 4-2 MIA build, and expect them to do well, he can be a really good leverage option. With Lamar, Flowers had a really good 30.7% target share through 3 games, and an aDOT of 10.2, everyone sees the matchup on the ground, and rightfully so, but I think he is a sneaky plug in that probably has suppressed ownership. I am not getting cute with these other WRs, I'll have some shares of Bateman where mass entering, but not much at all. Just last week, all of these TEs had 1 RZ target, Likely is Keaton Mitchell cheap, and we can see that attacking MIA through the air is typically done via TEs not WRs, while I don't hate Andrews, Likely getting to 10 points is equivalent to Andrews getting 25 points, and I think the TD can come from anywhere, and we've seen breakout games from Likely before, I will have my fair share of him too.
Achane just does it all, even in a 24 point win last week, he still ended up with 7 targets, and he actually has 4 receiving TDs on the year, as they don't shy away from targeting him in the RZ either (6 on the season) --- the 25 opps last week came on just 55% of snaps too ---- it feels wrong not playing him in every lineup.... With Hill, Waddle had a 19.5% target share/8 aDOT, w/o Hill, his target share has only gone up to 23%, but his aDOT has ballooned to 15.8, which is much higher than his career avg too and is why he should be included too. Similar to BAL, I don't really care for these other WRs, I guess you can consider washington (Similar to Bateman comments above), he did have a 19% target share last week with no waller. Conner didn't hit 50% of snaps despite no Waller or Hill, he did have 2 targets, but he is priced at almost 3K, I think he can be viable for TD hunting, but I got to think Dulcich sees a bigger role with more familiarity to the offense, and if his snaps rise from 28% number last week, then he could be a steal at $600, really 1 8 yard catch and you are at least ok with it.
Last edited:
ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
Sunday 1PMs/Main Slate
DEN@HOU
Broncos have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Texans have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Nix has a great pressure rate situation, but a meh pass potential. Dobbins~ has a good rush potential.
Stroud has a meh pressure rate situation, and a meh pass potential. Chubb~ has a meh rush potential.
Broncos TTR is 19th (meh).
Texans TTR is 16th.
Pace of play is 7th (meh). O/U Rank is 11th (bad/last --- by at least 4 points).
- Total being low, and the defenses being good keep me off of any game stacks, so we will look just for one-offs. I usually like naked nix (wink), but he is the most expensive he has ever been, and hasn't even 3x'd this salary in half of his games, and we expect to play him vs a tougher D than his avg... I'll pass. Dobbins, simialr to Henry, has no PPR value, and struggles to get 16+ opps, pass at 6K. Since Wk4, Franklin has the same target share as sutton (20~%), but has a big of a higher aDOT of 13.7 vs 11.1, and he has 8 RZ targets to Suttons 3 --- he is 1.6K cheaper, and would be probably my only one-off on this side. I want Engram to be cheaper, his 17.5 target share is ok, but his aDOT of 4.6 isn't the best either, I'll pass for now.
Chubb had 19 opps (2 targets), Marks had 15 opps (4 targets), the snaps were 44%/40% --- Normally I would say this looks like a 5050 split, and it may very well be, but HOU led by 2+ possessions practically throughout, which I would have thought meant Chubb would have been more weighted in the split/work, and it wasn't... this may officially be the passing of the torch, and I don't love Marks, but if he ends up playing, I think he could be a sneaky option in tournaments --- in a closer game, or playing from behind script, I actually expect him to be over 60%+ of snaps. The only plus for Collins is that he has been an alpha WR in the past, and nobody will be playing him ---- thats it. In the 3 games that both he and Kirk have played together this year, he has just a 23% target share, and 12.45 aDOT --- I don't want to pay 7.1K for those kind of metrics, when those around him are much better and are in easier matchups. Don't really want Schultz, he had an ok aDOT of 7.2, and his target share is fine at 19%, I think he is fine either way to keep or remove from your list.
CHI@CIN
Bears has a great P/RB matchup.
Bengals have a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Caleb has a great pressure rate situation, but a good pass potential. Swift has a great rush potential.
Flacco? has a meh pass potential. C. Brown has a good rush potential.
Bears TTR is 5th (great).
Bengals TTR is 12th (good).
Pace of play is T-3rd. O/U Rank is 2nd (great).
- Bears have like 100 injuries... jeez... Williams has failed and succeeded in these optimal spots, but I have interest in range-y guys that have ceilings for tourneys, especially if Flacco is on the other side (not browning). In the 3 games since the bye, Odunze still grades out the best, while 23.6% target share, and a really good aDOT of 15.5 seems a bit lower tier than the other alphas, he is only priced in the 6K range, and should be left on your list.... I'm fine going more in bigger game stacks too, but I have more interest in Zaccheaus, as he is almost floor price, will have less exposure, and has a similar target share with Moore (19% to 18%). While it isn't a lot Burdens 8% target share (and Swifts 7%) should rise these guys floors a touch. Pass at TE, don't like that both are actice, none have good metrics, neither are min priced. There's no Roschon, there's no swift.... Monangai becomes the de facto square fill in on most lineups for people. He has to be in line for 20+ opps, if you want to make an arguement his PPR floor is low, and you have another cheap price option that you could see out perform him 10, 20%~ of the time, maybe take a shot in a lineup or two, because if you're right, you immediately create great leverage.
I am expecting Flacco to start, if that is the case, we have to address Chase and his insane 46~% target share (just a 7 aDOT, but we'll manage), he's averaging 18 targets a game (3 games), never fewer than 12.... Imo he may be a must lock, as his floor is about 20 points, and his ceiling is everything you want in a slate breaker. If you want to get sexy you can take your attempt at Higgins, his 17% target share isn't great, but if you do want to take him, project CHI playing with a lead, as you will need the pass volume to be up there. Brown is ranging between 11 and 15 opps with Flacco, about 3 targets/g... it isn't the best, but atleast he is still in the 5K range and is in an environment with one of the best O/U's, so I understand the play.
SFO@NYG
49ers have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
Giants have a great P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Purdy? has a good pressure rate situation. CMC has a good rush potential.
49ers TTR is 8th (good).
Giants TTR is 14th.
Pace of play is 2nd (good). O/U Rank is T-4th (good).
- Want to start and say Mac Jones at 5K is viable, he has almost 3x'd this in 5 of 6 starts, and almost 4x'd in 3 of 6 starts, and the matchup is obviously good. CMC has failed us last week, but still had 6 targets, it was the lowest of the season for him, and it came in a game where it was tied for their worse loss, weird. Either way, the guy has slate breaking upside, and a typical high floor (despite last week), he can be fired up if you want. In the L2 weeks with Bourne/Jennings/Kittle playing, Jennings has a big time 27.5% target share, and good 12.3 aDOT, he is WAY to cheap at 4.3K and probably why I am off bourne (althoug hfi mass entering, feel free to shift) -- and he is probably healthier than he has every been during this season stretch too. Kittle wasn't used much in game 1 back, and he jumped up to 5 targets (17%) last week, I will probably be underweight, because his price has risen, and we (I) love Jennings this week, but I do think he can pop up any moment with an 8+ 100+ 1+ performance, so I want to include him too.
I'll start by saying Dart feels to cheap again, they just aren't changing his price despite because close to almost 4x'ing this salary in all 5 of his starts (3.6x'ing was his lowest). He is a way to get different over Tracy, and while I think Tracy should be popular tomorrow, if lineups aren't playing both him and Monangai, they have to take a stand on one... Tracy played 63% of snaps last week, but about 75% of the snaps post Skattebo injury... if he is going to be up there again, he should comfortably get to 20+ opps. In the 2 Dart games with Slayton+Wandale (and no nabers), they have the same target share, but Slayton has a much better aDOT of 15.9 to 9, he also comes in much cheaper, if I want to mini stack Dart, I will do it with him mostly. Theo Johnson is the only other consideration, he is kind of cheap, had a 18% target share, we know RZ targets are there, and his aDOT of 6.9 is good enough for a TE.
LAC@TEN
Chargers have a great P/RB matchup.
Titans have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Herbert has a bad pressure rate situation, but a great pass potential. Vidal has a great rush potential.
Ward has a bad pass potential. Pollard/Spears has a bad rush potential.
Chargers TTR is 7th (good).
Titans TTR is 20th (meh).
Pace of play is 5th. O/U Rank is T-9th.
- I like this passing offense a lot, but in the 2 semi blowout wins, Herbert never eclipsed 27 targets, and if thats the case, we can't feed everyone, and why I am down in attacking this team. Ladd in his L2 has had a 32% target share, with a 10 aDOT, which is elite enough at 6K, so if you like it do it. Allen over Qj for now, based off metrics, as QJ just doesn't make sense at the moment, but neither of them are that far away priced from Ladd, so I would only do it if mass entering and want to be different, as everyone will first start by going Ladd (myself included), but in tourneys, and on sunday, anything can happen. Again, similar to the above, I like Gadsden, and I got him in a lot of year-longs, but if the pass volume is down, there just isn't enough mouths to feed and his price as skyrocketed to 5.3K, more expensive than bowers/kittle/kelce/laporta/etc, and similar to Warren, passing this week. The man we should be considering is Vidal, there is nobody behind him again this week, and last week he finished with 25 opps (2 targets), and he is still low 6Ks, I like him the most by far.
I think Spears is interesting, he finally out snapped Pollard this week, and they should likely be in a positive pass script most weeks. He is a leverage candidate over Monangai/Tracy --- with a TD, I could easily see 20+, and every point over Tracy/Monangai will catapult you, it's viable imo. Have I given up on the pass catchers? Kind of ya, but all 3 of them are in the 3K range (3K is the min price), and all 3 without Ridley have a target share between 17 and 19% (12/12/13 targets each), if everyone is officially off this offense, or even ayomanor and go to Dike, now is the time to play him --- again in tourneys only --- has there has to be a 100+ 1+ game in ther for one of these guys at some point, but even a 5-70 without a TD even pays off well enough.
ATL@NEP
Falcons have a meh P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Pats have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Penix? has a good pressure rate situation, but a meh pass potential.
Maye has a bad pressure rate situation, but a good pass potential. Stevenson? has a meh rush potential.
Falcons TTR is 18th (meh).
Pats TTR is T-9th (good).
Pace of play is 11th (bad). O/U Rank is T-7th.
- Penix and London are both back, that should help alleviate Bijan who failed last week in a smash spot -- prior to that, the guys numbers were CMC like, so if you like him, rip it. There's been now 3 games without rayray on this team, and ATL has done more 2 WR sets than usual, with Casey Washington confirmed out, there is no depth guy I want. London had a 28% target share/11 aDOT in that game, those are good enough mentrics to contend at 6.4K, but I'll be underweight as I don't love the matchup. I think Pitts is interesting though, he's seen his sames hover around 80%, to closer to 90%, and he is coming off b2b good target performances 10 and 9, he's only 4.2K, and actually matched London on share the week all parties were healthy and playing --- you get him 2.2K cheaper. I'd consider Mooney for cheap punt options as he has a big aDOT, and plays 90%+ of snaps typically.
It slipped my mind no Stevenson when mentioned the cheap punt plays --- lets add another one, man this is going to be an interesting slate, because there is no competition for Henderson to lose a 20+ opp role, and joins the Monangai/Tracy -- Spears~ of pricing/value. I hate playing these passing weapons, any one of them can go off... I don't want diggs/boutte as they are the hgihest priced, Douglas doesn't play enough --- but if I had to have a value/salary saver option, I'd consider Mack Hollins he is 3.6K, has a 13.5 aDOT, is consistently at the top of snap counts for this team, and the 17% target share over the L3 is actually tied for 2nd best (diggs leads with 21%).
CAR@GBP
Panthers have a meh P/RB matchup.
Packers have a good P/RB matchup.
Young? has a meh pressure rate situation, and a bad pass potential.
Love has a good pressure rate situation, and a great pass potential.
Panthers TTR is 21st (bad).
Packers TTR is 1st (great).
Pace of play is 10th (meh). O/U Rank is T-7th.
- In Youngs L2 full games (where Dowdle was a lone man too) McMillan had a 27% target share and a 13 aDOT, those metrics, in a projected positive pass script, should give me a good floor/ceiling combo, someone in the 5K range with those metrics feels to cheap. I'm not considering any other pass catcher except a cheap/salary saver Sanders at best. I know Dowdles price is to the point where he shouldn't be this cheap if he has a week 5/6 role again, but I'll believe it when I see it --- Do I expect him to get more carries than the L2 weeks? Yes, but I still expect them to be playing from behind, and at best be in a 60-40 split, so I'll let others chase, especially with a ton of value RBs available.
Golden is unplayable at that price, and he isn't even expensive, in Watsons first game back, Golden saw a target share of 8.5%, and an aDOT of 0.67, pass. I know Kraft just went HAM, and had a 26% target share, which is great for PPR sites, but his aDOT of 1.9, projected game script, and insane price, have me off completely. Doubs and Watson are interesting, both had big time aDOTS of 18+, and I do think Watson gets a little more involved each week, especially with no Reed/Wicks, I am not going overboard here, but they do have the #1 TT on the slate, and shouldn't be completely crossed off your list. I'll have some of both, but I lean Watson a bit more. I'm torn on Jacobs, I think I will be off because he has been dealing with a calf injury, and if the game gets out of hand, I can see him seeing less playing time to preserve him --- if you want to play jacobs, make sure to do a CAR bring back --- plus he has a lower target floor than most of the guys priced around him, and is coming off b2b games where he didn't even hit 17 opps, his one plus is big time TD equity, but we know that is extremely variable.
IND@PIT
Colts have a good P/RB matchup.
Steelers have a meh P/RB matchup.
D. Jones has a great pressure rate situation, and a good pass potential. Taylor has a great rush potential.
Rodgers has a great pressure rate situation.
Colts TTR is 6th (great).
Steelers TTR is 13th (good).
Pace of play is 9th (meh). O/U Rank is 3rd (great).
- Taylor is on the verge of being the first player to hit a 10K salary this year, which is 1/5 of your 9 man lineup salary, the guy is on a MVP mission, and a multiple TD machine, and he's even 3x'd+ this salary 5 times this year (out of 8), so if you want him, I can't fault you, I just will be looking elsewhere, because for him to succeed, he needs everything to align (maybe I'll regret this, because its been aligning all year). I do however want to play this passing offense. There's only been 2 weeks recently where the entire offense was available to Jones, and in those games Pierce grades out the best with an ok target share of 15.5%, but a huge 25+ aDOT, the guy is perfect for tourneys, because when he hits, it's extremely valuable. I can't play downs, he is next on targets (so almost lowest( and has a bad aDOT. Warren feels a touch expensive, but I am not entirely crossing him out, his 24% target share is good, his 6 aDOT is good enough too, there's a chance I don't know the savings with a punt TE, with all that we have at RB, but if roster construction says I need the savings, I'll pay down at TE. I'll have some shares of Pittman.
I don't love the matchup, but I think Warren can be serviceable, we've seen a PPR floor, we've seen 20+ opp games, and he's in that 5K range, I just don't think I'll have much of him with all the other options. In all of Rodgers losses (and 2 of their wins) he hit 30+ pass attempts --- we expect this game to be more of the same. Last week was Austins first game back in 3+ weeks, and Metcalf and him made up about 43% of targets. Imo, that gets atleast one of these guys to 9+ targets, and at 5.5K/4K they seem to cheap. I probably don't have much of austin, but I will have both, especially Metcalf. Pass elsewhere.
MIN@DET
Vikings have a bad P/RB matchup.
Lions have a great RB matchup, bad P matchup.
McCarthy? has a bad pass potential. Jones/Mason have a bad rush potential.
Goff has a meh pressure rate situation. Gibbs~ has a good rush potential.
Vikings TTR is 17th.
Lions TTR is 3rd (great).
Pace of play is 12th (bad). O/U Rank is T-4th (good).
- We are not paying 5K for a RB timeshare with a ton of value options, pass. McCarthy only has 2 starts under his belt and he's shown both sides of his range --- almost 5x'ing, and barely 1x'ing --- for tourneys, we like that range of outcomes, because if the upside hits, you get instant leverage on a guy who won't be owned, and he may have a bit of a rushing floor too. In those 2 starts Addison wasn't there either, plus it should be a positive pass script, so maybe we can expect a higher floor overall, and I like him as a value option. We don't have appropriate metrics that matchup with past performances, but I think both JJ and Addison and be considered respective to their price, but even if not game stacking I actually like Hockenson as a one-off candidate. He is just 3.4K, he plays 80%+ of snaps, his direct backup in Oliver is out, even without a TD, it is not hard seeing a 5+-50+ game that will easily 3x this salary.
Gibbs can always be considered, on only 20 opps (3 targets) last game he hit over 200+ total yards, my only problem with him is we know if DET is expected to play with a decent lead (like this week), that Montgomery can get time to shine --- if that's the case, there is an argument to fade him here at 8K salary --- and actually looking further, in 5 of 7 games this year, he barely got to 2.5x FPs of this salary, 2 were losses, 3 were 2+ possession wins. Over his L5 ASB has a 34% target share, with just a 7 aDOT, but on PPR sites, over 30%+ is nice, if we expect this to be a competitive week I say fire him up, and could be a good bring back candidate. Jameson for a HR hit, his 16% target share is fine, but we obviously love the 16.7 aDOT, it's reminiscent of Pierce and probably a pivot off of him.
Sunday 4PMs/Main Slate (Cont.)
NOS@LAR
Saints have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Rams have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Shough? has a bad pressure rate situation, and a bad pass potential. Kamara has a bad rush potential.
Stafford has a great pass potential. Kyren has a bad rush potential.
Saints TTR is 22nd (bad/last).
Rams TTR is 2nd (great).
Pace of play is 1st (great). O/U Rank is T-9th.
- We can't play the RBs here, w/ou Kendre last week, Kamara didn't even hit 50% of snaps, I know they were down 2+ possessions throughout, but that will be most weeks anyways. Shough came in and attempted 30 passes --- 27% of them went to Shaheed, while I'll still like Olave from a PPR perspective, I want to try and get ahead of this when it comes to tourneys, and the Q tag may keep even more people off of him. Similar to Hockenson, I don't mind Juwan Johnson at 3.2K, he had an aDOT of 11.25 last week, which is great for a TE, and with just Shoughs pass attempts, he did hit a 20% target share. Overall, I will stick to one-offs or mini game stacks here, as they do have the worst TT of the main slate.
Kyren feels weird, he still plays 75%~+ of snaps, and we've seen some workhorse games, but at the same time, we've seen him be capped to 15-16 opps (3 of his last 4 games), if we get that, we will be pissed, but he isn't priced like the alpha backs up top, and we've seen slate breaking upside (24 opp (10 target) game vs SFO), the script should be good, so I think we keep him. The first 5 weeks of the year Puka was doing alphamale things, as he almost had a 35% target share, my fear, is that Stafford could end up with less than 30 pass attempts in the projected script --- while that could still equate to 10 targets, that may be his ceiling, as I can see him being rug pulled to keep that ankle injury as safe as possible, I probably sway away from him this week. Adams price is a bit inflated as the price is indicative of no Puka last few weeks, it kind of keeps me off of him too, but I know he could get there and is a favorite target of stafford in the RZ (16 RZ targets in 7 games is great). If mass entering, maybe make a line up with the expectations that NOS keeps the game close.
JAC@LVR
Jags have a great P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Raiders have a meh P/RB matchup.
Lawrence has a great pressure rate situation, and a good pass potential.
Geno has a good pressure rate situation, but a bad pass potential. Jeanty has a bad rush potential.
Jags TTR is 11th (good).
Raiders TTR is 15th.
Pace of play is 8th (meh). O/U Rank is 6th.
- I think Etienne could be a fine play, but why take reduce opportunities with guys similarly priced in better roles this week, pass. Pass at TE too, it has been 2 weeks w/o strange, and no TE has an 8% target share... now this is where it gets interesting Hunter was starting to come along, and had a 23.6% target share over the L2 weeks, we now have concentrated targets due to injury, in a plus matchup vs this LVR pass D, and these guys (minus BTJ) are very cheap. I obviously will have shares of all of them, but Parker Washington is coming off an 80%+ snap share game, has had a big 19.4 aDOT, and we've seen him have the ability to slate break/shine in situations like this last year, at 3.7K he's a steal. If you wanted to pivot to Dyami, who will most likely be less owned, I have no issues too, I will a tad if mass entering.
I want to throw out the game vs KCC, as they had like 2 offensive plays that game.... but his L3 prior to that, Jeanty was averaging 23.67 opps/g (4.33 targets/g), he feels like he is priced in no mans land, as people will go up to kyren or down to vidal, that's a great recipe for tournament leverage. I want to say grab Geno, and play him with one of Meyers/Tucker, but is he 1 bad half or even quarter from getting benched for pickett? I'm not sure, and I am fighting with how cheap he is, and how good of a matchup this is, it should help him too as this is the first week with Bowers since Wk4. which was the last time he hit over double digit fantasy points (lol...) Speaking of Bowers, in that game he had a 30% target share, I don't want to forget what this guy did last year, but if we get that kind of production again, it is a scenario that I want to be ahead of over behind. I like him more than the Krafts/Warren(kind of)/Gadsdens above him.
KCC@BUF
Chiefs have a great RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Bills have a good RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Hunt/Smith~ have a great rush potential.
Allen has a meh pressure rate situation. Cook has a great rush potential.
Chiefs TTR is 4th (great).
Bills TTR is T-9th (good).
Pace of play is 14th (bad/last). O/U Rank is 1st (great).
- Is this one of those games in a slate where you will get burned if you don't atleast mini stack it? Probably, but I am mentally fighting it. With no Pacheco, people will be going right to hunt in the 4K range, he is utilized in the RZ so much, and obviously going to have a higher floor in overall opportunities, so I do think he can be considered, but I think Smith has more explosiveness, will be atleast the 3rd down back/ppr value, and in the scenarios where BUF sets the pace/leads, he should be seeing more playing time, I lean that way. Overall though, there are so many value backs, I don't think you need to go here, and you won't regret passing. I like Rice, he had a 28% target shar last week, but his aDOT of 4.1, paying an alpha price similar to JJ/ASB/etc., and a most likely high exposure in tourneys, is kind of keeping me off. I think Kelce is fine too, but again, at TE I kind of like other plays. I actually think Worthy is the best value play, his target share was still 22% last week, his aDOT, while not good, is better than rice's, sitting at 7, and he is 2K cheaper than rice.
I know Cook has slate breaking upside, and good TD equity, but in his L3 games, he has 1 TOTAL target, we hate that on PPR sites, and he isn't cheap. The problem with Allen, is he can spread it around, while having a low pass volume, but what we like, outside of his legs (and hailee), is that we should finally see a game where he attemtps more than 31 passes (which we haven't seen since week 1), if that ends up being the case, all of these pass catchers are cheappp. In Palmers first missed action last week, Shakir had a 30.5% target share, if we get to 33 pass attempts, we could get 10 targets out of a guy who is priced in the 5K range --- we like that. Elijah Moore saw the biggest jump in snaps last week, and he finished T-2nd with a 17% target share, and had the best aDOT among WRs at 10.25, he is $100 off the min price, and probably my go to option here (now watch Coleman finally effing do well). Pass at TE.
DEN@HOU
Broncos have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Texans have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Nix has a great pressure rate situation, but a meh pass potential. Dobbins~ has a good rush potential.
Stroud has a meh pressure rate situation, and a meh pass potential. Chubb~ has a meh rush potential.
Broncos TTR is 19th (meh).
Texans TTR is 16th.
Pace of play is 7th (meh). O/U Rank is 11th (bad/last --- by at least 4 points).
- Total being low, and the defenses being good keep me off of any game stacks, so we will look just for one-offs. I usually like naked nix (wink), but he is the most expensive he has ever been, and hasn't even 3x'd this salary in half of his games, and we expect to play him vs a tougher D than his avg... I'll pass. Dobbins, simialr to Henry, has no PPR value, and struggles to get 16+ opps, pass at 6K. Since Wk4, Franklin has the same target share as sutton (20~%), but has a big of a higher aDOT of 13.7 vs 11.1, and he has 8 RZ targets to Suttons 3 --- he is 1.6K cheaper, and would be probably my only one-off on this side. I want Engram to be cheaper, his 17.5 target share is ok, but his aDOT of 4.6 isn't the best either, I'll pass for now.
Chubb had 19 opps (2 targets), Marks had 15 opps (4 targets), the snaps were 44%/40% --- Normally I would say this looks like a 5050 split, and it may very well be, but HOU led by 2+ possessions practically throughout, which I would have thought meant Chubb would have been more weighted in the split/work, and it wasn't... this may officially be the passing of the torch, and I don't love Marks, but if he ends up playing, I think he could be a sneaky option in tournaments --- in a closer game, or playing from behind script, I actually expect him to be over 60%+ of snaps. The only plus for Collins is that he has been an alpha WR in the past, and nobody will be playing him ---- thats it. In the 3 games that both he and Kirk have played together this year, he has just a 23% target share, and 12.45 aDOT --- I don't want to pay 7.1K for those kind of metrics, when those around him are much better and are in easier matchups. Don't really want Schultz, he had an ok aDOT of 7.2, and his target share is fine at 19%, I think he is fine either way to keep or remove from your list.
CHI@CIN
Bears has a great P/RB matchup.
Bengals have a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Caleb has a great pressure rate situation, but a good pass potential. Swift has a great rush potential.
Flacco? has a meh pass potential. C. Brown has a good rush potential.
Bears TTR is 5th (great).
Bengals TTR is 12th (good).
Pace of play is T-3rd. O/U Rank is 2nd (great).
- Bears have like 100 injuries... jeez... Williams has failed and succeeded in these optimal spots, but I have interest in range-y guys that have ceilings for tourneys, especially if Flacco is on the other side (not browning). In the 3 games since the bye, Odunze still grades out the best, while 23.6% target share, and a really good aDOT of 15.5 seems a bit lower tier than the other alphas, he is only priced in the 6K range, and should be left on your list.... I'm fine going more in bigger game stacks too, but I have more interest in Zaccheaus, as he is almost floor price, will have less exposure, and has a similar target share with Moore (19% to 18%). While it isn't a lot Burdens 8% target share (and Swifts 7%) should rise these guys floors a touch. Pass at TE, don't like that both are actice, none have good metrics, neither are min priced. There's no Roschon, there's no swift.... Monangai becomes the de facto square fill in on most lineups for people. He has to be in line for 20+ opps, if you want to make an arguement his PPR floor is low, and you have another cheap price option that you could see out perform him 10, 20%~ of the time, maybe take a shot in a lineup or two, because if you're right, you immediately create great leverage.
I am expecting Flacco to start, if that is the case, we have to address Chase and his insane 46~% target share (just a 7 aDOT, but we'll manage), he's averaging 18 targets a game (3 games), never fewer than 12.... Imo he may be a must lock, as his floor is about 20 points, and his ceiling is everything you want in a slate breaker. If you want to get sexy you can take your attempt at Higgins, his 17% target share isn't great, but if you do want to take him, project CHI playing with a lead, as you will need the pass volume to be up there. Brown is ranging between 11 and 15 opps with Flacco, about 3 targets/g... it isn't the best, but atleast he is still in the 5K range and is in an environment with one of the best O/U's, so I understand the play.
SFO@NYG
49ers have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
Giants have a great P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Purdy? has a good pressure rate situation. CMC has a good rush potential.
49ers TTR is 8th (good).
Giants TTR is 14th.
Pace of play is 2nd (good). O/U Rank is T-4th (good).
- Want to start and say Mac Jones at 5K is viable, he has almost 3x'd this in 5 of 6 starts, and almost 4x'd in 3 of 6 starts, and the matchup is obviously good. CMC has failed us last week, but still had 6 targets, it was the lowest of the season for him, and it came in a game where it was tied for their worse loss, weird. Either way, the guy has slate breaking upside, and a typical high floor (despite last week), he can be fired up if you want. In the L2 weeks with Bourne/Jennings/Kittle playing, Jennings has a big time 27.5% target share, and good 12.3 aDOT, he is WAY to cheap at 4.3K and probably why I am off bourne (althoug hfi mass entering, feel free to shift) -- and he is probably healthier than he has every been during this season stretch too. Kittle wasn't used much in game 1 back, and he jumped up to 5 targets (17%) last week, I will probably be underweight, because his price has risen, and we (I) love Jennings this week, but I do think he can pop up any moment with an 8+ 100+ 1+ performance, so I want to include him too.
I'll start by saying Dart feels to cheap again, they just aren't changing his price despite because close to almost 4x'ing this salary in all 5 of his starts (3.6x'ing was his lowest). He is a way to get different over Tracy, and while I think Tracy should be popular tomorrow, if lineups aren't playing both him and Monangai, they have to take a stand on one... Tracy played 63% of snaps last week, but about 75% of the snaps post Skattebo injury... if he is going to be up there again, he should comfortably get to 20+ opps. In the 2 Dart games with Slayton+Wandale (and no nabers), they have the same target share, but Slayton has a much better aDOT of 15.9 to 9, he also comes in much cheaper, if I want to mini stack Dart, I will do it with him mostly. Theo Johnson is the only other consideration, he is kind of cheap, had a 18% target share, we know RZ targets are there, and his aDOT of 6.9 is good enough for a TE.
LAC@TEN
Chargers have a great P/RB matchup.
Titans have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Herbert has a bad pressure rate situation, but a great pass potential. Vidal has a great rush potential.
Ward has a bad pass potential. Pollard/Spears has a bad rush potential.
Chargers TTR is 7th (good).
Titans TTR is 20th (meh).
Pace of play is 5th. O/U Rank is T-9th.
- I like this passing offense a lot, but in the 2 semi blowout wins, Herbert never eclipsed 27 targets, and if thats the case, we can't feed everyone, and why I am down in attacking this team. Ladd in his L2 has had a 32% target share, with a 10 aDOT, which is elite enough at 6K, so if you like it do it. Allen over Qj for now, based off metrics, as QJ just doesn't make sense at the moment, but neither of them are that far away priced from Ladd, so I would only do it if mass entering and want to be different, as everyone will first start by going Ladd (myself included), but in tourneys, and on sunday, anything can happen. Again, similar to the above, I like Gadsden, and I got him in a lot of year-longs, but if the pass volume is down, there just isn't enough mouths to feed and his price as skyrocketed to 5.3K, more expensive than bowers/kittle/kelce/laporta/etc, and similar to Warren, passing this week. The man we should be considering is Vidal, there is nobody behind him again this week, and last week he finished with 25 opps (2 targets), and he is still low 6Ks, I like him the most by far.
I think Spears is interesting, he finally out snapped Pollard this week, and they should likely be in a positive pass script most weeks. He is a leverage candidate over Monangai/Tracy --- with a TD, I could easily see 20+, and every point over Tracy/Monangai will catapult you, it's viable imo. Have I given up on the pass catchers? Kind of ya, but all 3 of them are in the 3K range (3K is the min price), and all 3 without Ridley have a target share between 17 and 19% (12/12/13 targets each), if everyone is officially off this offense, or even ayomanor and go to Dike, now is the time to play him --- again in tourneys only --- has there has to be a 100+ 1+ game in ther for one of these guys at some point, but even a 5-70 without a TD even pays off well enough.
ATL@NEP
Falcons have a meh P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Pats have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Penix? has a good pressure rate situation, but a meh pass potential.
Maye has a bad pressure rate situation, but a good pass potential. Stevenson? has a meh rush potential.
Falcons TTR is 18th (meh).
Pats TTR is T-9th (good).
Pace of play is 11th (bad). O/U Rank is T-7th.
- Penix and London are both back, that should help alleviate Bijan who failed last week in a smash spot -- prior to that, the guys numbers were CMC like, so if you like him, rip it. There's been now 3 games without rayray on this team, and ATL has done more 2 WR sets than usual, with Casey Washington confirmed out, there is no depth guy I want. London had a 28% target share/11 aDOT in that game, those are good enough mentrics to contend at 6.4K, but I'll be underweight as I don't love the matchup. I think Pitts is interesting though, he's seen his sames hover around 80%, to closer to 90%, and he is coming off b2b good target performances 10 and 9, he's only 4.2K, and actually matched London on share the week all parties were healthy and playing --- you get him 2.2K cheaper. I'd consider Mooney for cheap punt options as he has a big aDOT, and plays 90%+ of snaps typically.
It slipped my mind no Stevenson when mentioned the cheap punt plays --- lets add another one, man this is going to be an interesting slate, because there is no competition for Henderson to lose a 20+ opp role, and joins the Monangai/Tracy -- Spears~ of pricing/value. I hate playing these passing weapons, any one of them can go off... I don't want diggs/boutte as they are the hgihest priced, Douglas doesn't play enough --- but if I had to have a value/salary saver option, I'd consider Mack Hollins he is 3.6K, has a 13.5 aDOT, is consistently at the top of snap counts for this team, and the 17% target share over the L3 is actually tied for 2nd best (diggs leads with 21%).
CAR@GBP
Panthers have a meh P/RB matchup.
Packers have a good P/RB matchup.
Young? has a meh pressure rate situation, and a bad pass potential.
Love has a good pressure rate situation, and a great pass potential.
Panthers TTR is 21st (bad).
Packers TTR is 1st (great).
Pace of play is 10th (meh). O/U Rank is T-7th.
- In Youngs L2 full games (where Dowdle was a lone man too) McMillan had a 27% target share and a 13 aDOT, those metrics, in a projected positive pass script, should give me a good floor/ceiling combo, someone in the 5K range with those metrics feels to cheap. I'm not considering any other pass catcher except a cheap/salary saver Sanders at best. I know Dowdles price is to the point where he shouldn't be this cheap if he has a week 5/6 role again, but I'll believe it when I see it --- Do I expect him to get more carries than the L2 weeks? Yes, but I still expect them to be playing from behind, and at best be in a 60-40 split, so I'll let others chase, especially with a ton of value RBs available.
Golden is unplayable at that price, and he isn't even expensive, in Watsons first game back, Golden saw a target share of 8.5%, and an aDOT of 0.67, pass. I know Kraft just went HAM, and had a 26% target share, which is great for PPR sites, but his aDOT of 1.9, projected game script, and insane price, have me off completely. Doubs and Watson are interesting, both had big time aDOTS of 18+, and I do think Watson gets a little more involved each week, especially with no Reed/Wicks, I am not going overboard here, but they do have the #1 TT on the slate, and shouldn't be completely crossed off your list. I'll have some of both, but I lean Watson a bit more. I'm torn on Jacobs, I think I will be off because he has been dealing with a calf injury, and if the game gets out of hand, I can see him seeing less playing time to preserve him --- if you want to play jacobs, make sure to do a CAR bring back --- plus he has a lower target floor than most of the guys priced around him, and is coming off b2b games where he didn't even hit 17 opps, his one plus is big time TD equity, but we know that is extremely variable.
IND@PIT
Colts have a good P/RB matchup.
Steelers have a meh P/RB matchup.
D. Jones has a great pressure rate situation, and a good pass potential. Taylor has a great rush potential.
Rodgers has a great pressure rate situation.
Colts TTR is 6th (great).
Steelers TTR is 13th (good).
Pace of play is 9th (meh). O/U Rank is 3rd (great).
- Taylor is on the verge of being the first player to hit a 10K salary this year, which is 1/5 of your 9 man lineup salary, the guy is on a MVP mission, and a multiple TD machine, and he's even 3x'd+ this salary 5 times this year (out of 8), so if you want him, I can't fault you, I just will be looking elsewhere, because for him to succeed, he needs everything to align (maybe I'll regret this, because its been aligning all year). I do however want to play this passing offense. There's only been 2 weeks recently where the entire offense was available to Jones, and in those games Pierce grades out the best with an ok target share of 15.5%, but a huge 25+ aDOT, the guy is perfect for tourneys, because when he hits, it's extremely valuable. I can't play downs, he is next on targets (so almost lowest( and has a bad aDOT. Warren feels a touch expensive, but I am not entirely crossing him out, his 24% target share is good, his 6 aDOT is good enough too, there's a chance I don't know the savings with a punt TE, with all that we have at RB, but if roster construction says I need the savings, I'll pay down at TE. I'll have some shares of Pittman.
I don't love the matchup, but I think Warren can be serviceable, we've seen a PPR floor, we've seen 20+ opp games, and he's in that 5K range, I just don't think I'll have much of him with all the other options. In all of Rodgers losses (and 2 of their wins) he hit 30+ pass attempts --- we expect this game to be more of the same. Last week was Austins first game back in 3+ weeks, and Metcalf and him made up about 43% of targets. Imo, that gets atleast one of these guys to 9+ targets, and at 5.5K/4K they seem to cheap. I probably don't have much of austin, but I will have both, especially Metcalf. Pass elsewhere.
MIN@DET
Vikings have a bad P/RB matchup.
Lions have a great RB matchup, bad P matchup.
McCarthy? has a bad pass potential. Jones/Mason have a bad rush potential.
Goff has a meh pressure rate situation. Gibbs~ has a good rush potential.
Vikings TTR is 17th.
Lions TTR is 3rd (great).
Pace of play is 12th (bad). O/U Rank is T-4th (good).
- We are not paying 5K for a RB timeshare with a ton of value options, pass. McCarthy only has 2 starts under his belt and he's shown both sides of his range --- almost 5x'ing, and barely 1x'ing --- for tourneys, we like that range of outcomes, because if the upside hits, you get instant leverage on a guy who won't be owned, and he may have a bit of a rushing floor too. In those 2 starts Addison wasn't there either, plus it should be a positive pass script, so maybe we can expect a higher floor overall, and I like him as a value option. We don't have appropriate metrics that matchup with past performances, but I think both JJ and Addison and be considered respective to their price, but even if not game stacking I actually like Hockenson as a one-off candidate. He is just 3.4K, he plays 80%+ of snaps, his direct backup in Oliver is out, even without a TD, it is not hard seeing a 5+-50+ game that will easily 3x this salary.
Gibbs can always be considered, on only 20 opps (3 targets) last game he hit over 200+ total yards, my only problem with him is we know if DET is expected to play with a decent lead (like this week), that Montgomery can get time to shine --- if that's the case, there is an argument to fade him here at 8K salary --- and actually looking further, in 5 of 7 games this year, he barely got to 2.5x FPs of this salary, 2 were losses, 3 were 2+ possession wins. Over his L5 ASB has a 34% target share, with just a 7 aDOT, but on PPR sites, over 30%+ is nice, if we expect this to be a competitive week I say fire him up, and could be a good bring back candidate. Jameson for a HR hit, his 16% target share is fine, but we obviously love the 16.7 aDOT, it's reminiscent of Pierce and probably a pivot off of him.
Sunday 4PMs/Main Slate (Cont.)
NOS@LAR
Saints have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Rams have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Shough? has a bad pressure rate situation, and a bad pass potential. Kamara has a bad rush potential.
Stafford has a great pass potential. Kyren has a bad rush potential.
Saints TTR is 22nd (bad/last).
Rams TTR is 2nd (great).
Pace of play is 1st (great). O/U Rank is T-9th.
- We can't play the RBs here, w/ou Kendre last week, Kamara didn't even hit 50% of snaps, I know they were down 2+ possessions throughout, but that will be most weeks anyways. Shough came in and attempted 30 passes --- 27% of them went to Shaheed, while I'll still like Olave from a PPR perspective, I want to try and get ahead of this when it comes to tourneys, and the Q tag may keep even more people off of him. Similar to Hockenson, I don't mind Juwan Johnson at 3.2K, he had an aDOT of 11.25 last week, which is great for a TE, and with just Shoughs pass attempts, he did hit a 20% target share. Overall, I will stick to one-offs or mini game stacks here, as they do have the worst TT of the main slate.
Kyren feels weird, he still plays 75%~+ of snaps, and we've seen some workhorse games, but at the same time, we've seen him be capped to 15-16 opps (3 of his last 4 games), if we get that, we will be pissed, but he isn't priced like the alpha backs up top, and we've seen slate breaking upside (24 opp (10 target) game vs SFO), the script should be good, so I think we keep him. The first 5 weeks of the year Puka was doing alphamale things, as he almost had a 35% target share, my fear, is that Stafford could end up with less than 30 pass attempts in the projected script --- while that could still equate to 10 targets, that may be his ceiling, as I can see him being rug pulled to keep that ankle injury as safe as possible, I probably sway away from him this week. Adams price is a bit inflated as the price is indicative of no Puka last few weeks, it kind of keeps me off of him too, but I know he could get there and is a favorite target of stafford in the RZ (16 RZ targets in 7 games is great). If mass entering, maybe make a line up with the expectations that NOS keeps the game close.
JAC@LVR
Jags have a great P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Raiders have a meh P/RB matchup.
Lawrence has a great pressure rate situation, and a good pass potential.
Geno has a good pressure rate situation, but a bad pass potential. Jeanty has a bad rush potential.
Jags TTR is 11th (good).
Raiders TTR is 15th.
Pace of play is 8th (meh). O/U Rank is 6th.
- I think Etienne could be a fine play, but why take reduce opportunities with guys similarly priced in better roles this week, pass. Pass at TE too, it has been 2 weeks w/o strange, and no TE has an 8% target share... now this is where it gets interesting Hunter was starting to come along, and had a 23.6% target share over the L2 weeks, we now have concentrated targets due to injury, in a plus matchup vs this LVR pass D, and these guys (minus BTJ) are very cheap. I obviously will have shares of all of them, but Parker Washington is coming off an 80%+ snap share game, has had a big 19.4 aDOT, and we've seen him have the ability to slate break/shine in situations like this last year, at 3.7K he's a steal. If you wanted to pivot to Dyami, who will most likely be less owned, I have no issues too, I will a tad if mass entering.
I want to throw out the game vs KCC, as they had like 2 offensive plays that game.... but his L3 prior to that, Jeanty was averaging 23.67 opps/g (4.33 targets/g), he feels like he is priced in no mans land, as people will go up to kyren or down to vidal, that's a great recipe for tournament leverage. I want to say grab Geno, and play him with one of Meyers/Tucker, but is he 1 bad half or even quarter from getting benched for pickett? I'm not sure, and I am fighting with how cheap he is, and how good of a matchup this is, it should help him too as this is the first week with Bowers since Wk4. which was the last time he hit over double digit fantasy points (lol...) Speaking of Bowers, in that game he had a 30% target share, I don't want to forget what this guy did last year, but if we get that kind of production again, it is a scenario that I want to be ahead of over behind. I like him more than the Krafts/Warren(kind of)/Gadsdens above him.
KCC@BUF
Chiefs have a great RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Bills have a good RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Hunt/Smith~ have a great rush potential.
Allen has a meh pressure rate situation. Cook has a great rush potential.
Chiefs TTR is 4th (great).
Bills TTR is T-9th (good).
Pace of play is 14th (bad/last). O/U Rank is 1st (great).
- Is this one of those games in a slate where you will get burned if you don't atleast mini stack it? Probably, but I am mentally fighting it. With no Pacheco, people will be going right to hunt in the 4K range, he is utilized in the RZ so much, and obviously going to have a higher floor in overall opportunities, so I do think he can be considered, but I think Smith has more explosiveness, will be atleast the 3rd down back/ppr value, and in the scenarios where BUF sets the pace/leads, he should be seeing more playing time, I lean that way. Overall though, there are so many value backs, I don't think you need to go here, and you won't regret passing. I like Rice, he had a 28% target shar last week, but his aDOT of 4.1, paying an alpha price similar to JJ/ASB/etc., and a most likely high exposure in tourneys, is kind of keeping me off. I think Kelce is fine too, but again, at TE I kind of like other plays. I actually think Worthy is the best value play, his target share was still 22% last week, his aDOT, while not good, is better than rice's, sitting at 7, and he is 2K cheaper than rice.
I know Cook has slate breaking upside, and good TD equity, but in his L3 games, he has 1 TOTAL target, we hate that on PPR sites, and he isn't cheap. The problem with Allen, is he can spread it around, while having a low pass volume, but what we like, outside of his legs (and hailee), is that we should finally see a game where he attemtps more than 31 passes (which we haven't seen since week 1), if that ends up being the case, all of these pass catchers are cheappp. In Palmers first missed action last week, Shakir had a 30.5% target share, if we get to 33 pass attempts, we could get 10 targets out of a guy who is priced in the 5K range --- we like that. Elijah Moore saw the biggest jump in snaps last week, and he finished T-2nd with a 17% target share, and had the best aDOT among WRs at 10.25, he is $100 off the min price, and probably my go to option here (now watch Coleman finally effing do well). Pass at TE.
Last edited:
ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
Sunday Night/Showdown Slate
SEA@WAS
Seahawks have a good P/RB matchup.
Commanders have a meh P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Darnold has a great pass potential. Walker~ has a meh rush potential.
Daniels? has a meh pressure rate situation. Croskey~ has a meh rush potential.
Pace of play is T-3rd.
- Notes
SEA@WAS
Seahawks have a good P/RB matchup.
Commanders have a meh P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Darnold has a great pass potential. Walker~ has a meh rush potential.
Daniels? has a meh pressure rate situation. Croskey~ has a meh rush potential.
Pace of play is T-3rd.
- Notes
Last edited:
ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
Monday Night/Showdown Slate
ARI@DAL
Cardinals have a great P/RB matchup.
Cowboys have a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Kyler? has a bad pressure rate situation, but a good pass potential.
Dak has a great pass potential.
Pace of play is 6th (meh).
- Notes
ARI@DAL
Cardinals have a great P/RB matchup.
Cowboys have a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Kyler? has a bad pressure rate situation, but a good pass potential.
Dak has a great pass potential.
Pace of play is 6th (meh).
- Notes
Last edited:
jdoggoakley
Pretty much a regular
Trying to figure out how the Colts TT of 27-1/2 doesn’t hit? Oh, and over 13-1/2 1st half as welll.
This Steelers D is not stopping anybody and the Colts O is efficient and scores in a variety of ways. Tucker Kraft torched them and I imagine Tyler Warren will as well. Jonathan Taylor > Josh Jacobs and Colts O-line > Pack O-line.
Can anyone talk me out of this?
This Steelers D is not stopping anybody and the Colts O is efficient and scores in a variety of ways. Tucker Kraft torched them and I imagine Tyler Warren will as well. Jonathan Taylor > Josh Jacobs and Colts O-line > Pack O-line.
Can anyone talk me out of this?
jdoggoakley
Pretty much a regular
Great point, BAR! But do we really know any of this shit??
Dodgers probably should have already closed out the Jays, but here we are
Dodgers probably should have already closed out the Jays, but here we are
austinhous
Delicately Satirical
noticed likely been running more routes than andrews for a few weeks now
ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
oh yeah, I tried attacking him in DFS last week, wasn't the best (but he was min price) --- looking into general stuff now
Looks good Scope
UTSUX
Old-timer
I'm Riding with Ya.
2daBank
2024 CTG Supporting Donation Member
Gotta love bears Monangia over 76.5, the bears win when they run the ball and this coach schemes it really well, hungry rookie vs the dog shit cincy d that allows 5ypc feels like a slam dunk. Understand if you looking for other dfs options in tourneys cause im sure his price dictates everyone playing him but if I still played dfs not sure this a spot id try to hedge. Unless the cincy offense just jumps all over bears I don’t see how this kid doesn’t go for 100ish and a td at minimum.
rambler882
2024 CTG Supporting Donation Member
Brock Bowers o54.5, 3u -114
Josh Downs o35.5, 3u -112
Kyle Monangai o73.5, 2u -114
Brian Thomas Jr. o67.5, 2u -112
Christian McCaffrey o132.5 combo, 2u -112
Darius Slayton o41.5, 2u -112
DK Metcalf o61.5, 2u -112
Drake London o63.5, 2u -112
Nico Collins o4.5, 1u -142
Nico Collins o65.5, 1u -112
TreVeyon Henderson o50.5, 1u -112
TreVeyon Henderson TD, 1u -108
TreVeyon Henderson o13.5 attempts, 1u +112
Kimani Vidal TD, 1u -150
Geno Smith o222.5, 1u -115
Jameson Williams o46.5, 1u -112
Tyjae Spears o2.5, 1u -104
Derrick Henry o89.5, 1u +115
Josh Downs o35.5, 3u -112
Kyle Monangai o73.5, 2u -114
Brian Thomas Jr. o67.5, 2u -112
Christian McCaffrey o132.5 combo, 2u -112
Darius Slayton o41.5, 2u -112
DK Metcalf o61.5, 2u -112
Drake London o63.5, 2u -112
Nico Collins o4.5, 1u -142
Nico Collins o65.5, 1u -112
TreVeyon Henderson o50.5, 1u -112
TreVeyon Henderson TD, 1u -108
TreVeyon Henderson o13.5 attempts, 1u +112
Kimani Vidal TD, 1u -150
Geno Smith o222.5, 1u -115
Jameson Williams o46.5, 1u -112
Tyjae Spears o2.5, 1u -104
Derrick Henry o89.5, 1u +115
2daBank
2024 CTG Supporting Donation Member
Gotta rock with JJ ov 20.5 rush yards now that he back. Kid sucks but game script outta be one where he dropping back a bunch and when you not that great a thrower and a pretty decent athlete ya bound to take off 4-5x. Cashed him the 1st 2 he played and see no reason to stop until the number gets a little higher.
ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
Agreed, there are a ton of 5K~ priced RBs in good spots though, not sure what I am doing yet in regards to that
ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
BOL, taking a look soon myself!
ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
Co-sign
2daBank
2024 CTG Supporting Donation Member
Like a lot of these. I played a few alts on treveyon rushing and rec, if he gets all the work can’t imagine he doesn’t have a nice game. I rocked with Pitts instead of London but I was torn, te’s have been roasting the pats tho. Maybe Penix play in order? The way to beat pats is def thru the air. Gl buddy
rambler882
2024 CTG Supporting Donation Member
Same, back and forth on London or Pitts.
2daBank
2024 CTG Supporting Donation Member
I always been partial to Pitts, only took 3 years or something to start paying off
really just came down to how te’s been killing pats d lately. Think there most likely enough passing volume from atl for both to cash, thought bout Bijan under cause pats run d been fantastic, don’t think they have allowed anyone rb to go for more than 50! Books starting to figure it out tho, Bijan rush total is freaking lower than Judkins last week, I just can’t stomach that, he bust one decent one and he will clear 62.5. I was thinking he be more like 80ish.
2daBank
2024 CTG Supporting Donation Member
2daBank
2024 CTG Supporting Donation Member
ju ju number keeps getting lower every week but he continues getting 2-3 passes a game. 12.5 is insane, even with everyone healthy they trust him and he gonna get a few balls, in 5 of the 8 weeks including the last 3 he has caught a pass longer than this total as now he might not be as involved but with all the attention on others he bound to get free once or twice.
2daBank
2024 CTG Supporting Donation Member
Bears rb smashed but mfers refuse to give him a carry inside the 5, really piasing me off, now a fucking backup rb scored. Of course the highest wheel I bet w him my greedy ass put a td with it, I mean if he was gonna go for 120+ you think he fucking score! Instead they have Moore throwing 2 yard passes to the qb and shit