1PMs/Main Slate
LAC/ATL
Chargers have a great P/RB matchup.
Falcons have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Herbert has the best ASR matchup.
Mariota has a bad ASR matchup. Algeier/Huntley have a good ALY push.
Chargers TTR is 3rd.
Falcons TTR is T-9th.
Pace of play is T-7th overall, T-6th in MS. O/URank is T-2nd.
- Injuries - LAC - On D, no CB Jackson, a few Q's. On O, no WR Williams, WR Allen is still sidelined, RB Ekeler is Q, TE Parham is Q, WR Palmer cleared concussion protocol.
- ATL - On D, CB Hayward out for 2nd week, CB Terrell is out . On O, RB Patterson could return?
- The chargers have the 3rd best TTR, they have a great DVOA matchup on both fronts, and Herbert is expected to have time in the pocket, oh, and 2 of ATLs starting CBs are out..... oh, and we get cheap value as Herberts pass catchers are out (most likely the 2 atleast)... the only thing that you can talk me out of here is ownership being to high here, but its to good to pass up. Ekeler is averaging almost 21 Opp's a game, where almost 9 of them are targets, that's fucking nuts and gives him one of the highest floors for a RB. Without Allen/Williams, you'd think that atleast gets maintained here. He has TD equity too, he's almost a must start if healthy. Also, he saw his highest snap count 2 games ago, and topped that in his last game, at 77%. Palmer/Carter should operate as the 1/2 w/o Williams/Allen, but Bandy can hit a homerun ball too, maybe in just 1 lineup. In 2 games Parham played (and didn't complete atleast 1 of them), Everett averaged 3 catches on 5 targets for an aDOT/r of 1.125~, that's gross, and I'd actually rather a cheaper parham if he plays, but will most likely pass altogether.
Allgeier played 60%~ of snaps past 2 weeks, and has averaged around 15 opportunities, not terrible, not great, the thing I'd like to see is he got his first target last week, actually 3 of them!, If that continues, I can see him paying his way, especially with a TD, they have a good ALY push, and the DVOA matchup is good, and we know they don't have to be competitive to continue to use him. IF patterson is in, I'll probably pass on the backfield. London saw his career high snaps last week, and was 3rd on the target list... I can't trust it unfortunately, but I guess its a buy low spot. Pitts I mentioned being a sneaky spot last week, and it paid off, he had a good TE aDOT/r of 7.2, led the team in targets at 9 (32.1% target share), and finished with 5-80-1.... he's price went up a bit, but I think he can still be considered if you want a piece of this offense not at RB.
BUF/NYJ
Bills have a bad P/RB matchup.
Jets have a bad P/RB matchup.
Allen has a good ASR matchup. Singletary has a bad ALY push.
Z. Wilson has a bad ASR matchup. Carter/Robinson have a bad ALY push.
Bills TTR is 1st.
Jets TTR is T-18th (for last with 3 others, /20)
Pace of play is 1st overall/MS. OURank is 5th.
- Injuries - BUF - On D, S Poyer is out. Milano is Q but hasn't parcticed, and they did activite CB White.
- NYJ - On O, no WR Davis, 2 OLineman are out, and obiously no RB Hall either.
- The bills have the #1 TT (like most weeks), and its the best pace of the bunch, but they have a tough matchup on D DVOA wise. I'm not saying not to take them, as you don't want another explosive play game (see Pitt) where you're SOL if you had no bill, but I think I'll be underweight. They're the most expensive, and there are paths for other people to outperform. One off will be my majority. Singletary gets like 14~ opps. a game but will his 4~ targets a game take a hit with Hines, maybe... and we know Allen can vulture him, pass. Diggs is the WR1 on the team with the biggest team total, he sees over 10 targets a game, at a decent 9.3 aDOT/r.... he obviously can be played, but he doesn't come cheap. Gabe Davis has a MASSIVE 18.8 aDOT/r, and he's consistently seen more snaps than diggs actually. I don't think I'll be on the slot men. Knox hasn't seen more than 4 targets in a game this year, and is at 0.66 RZ targets a game, we can find better.
Carter saw 56% of snaps, Robinson 22%, I'm assuming those numbers both crunch inwards, but maybe I'm wrong. I do think the script can only be better for carter though, and he had 7 targets last week... if you tell me he'll get 8+ targets and have 50+ snaps, I think he could be played, with a TD I wouldn't be shocked to see 20+ FPs. Moore played just 17% of snaps last week, assuming because of his comments from weeks back, until that's proven otherwise, pass, that did lead Wilson to have his season high of snaps at 88%, Mims ay 75%, and even Berrios at 51%,, and Wilson had 41 pass attempts.... Do you think that's the norm again vs Buffalo? or That his attempts will go back to his usually.... I think it remains high of course. If so, Wilson had a solid 21% target share, and a solid aDOT/r of 9.7. I think he's still super cheap and can be considered, keep an eye on White coming back though. Conklin had a 30% target share, and a solid TE aDOT/r of 8.5.... He may be my game stack candidate. He's cheaper than knox for example, and will probably see more than double the targets and a deeper level.
MIA/CHI
Dolphins have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
Bears have a great P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Tua has a good ASR matchup. Mostert has a good ALY push.
Fields has the worst ASR matchup (he did last week too and still excelled).
Dolphins TTR is T-6th.
Bears TTR is 15th.
Pace of play is T-11th overall, 10th in MS. OURank is 6th.
- Injuries - MIA - On D, S Jones out for 2nd week, Needham out for 3rd week, couple Q's. CB Jones not ready yet, but they did add Chubb. On O, OL Eichenberg is out.
- CHI - On O, OL Patrick is out.
- Tua has a good matchup, and shouldn't be pressured, plus these bears stats were with Smith/Quinn too, so you can only guess the pass rush will be worse. Tua, despite playing what, 4 full games and less than 2 half games? (Off memory) is EIGTH in total air yards, despite having 67 less attempts than the next closest guy above him, and leads all QBs in airyards/attempt (of course). You can argue the pace here sucks, but same was said last week with the CHI/DAL, and that game turned out ok. These 2 WRs are slate breakers, and have 60% of the target share on this team, and are both in the top 4 in receiving yards. You can argue either going 8+-100+1+. , sorry sherfield. I won't have him, but Gesicki has finished top 8 in fantasy scoring for TEs 3 times this year, but he only has more than 4 catches once and Smythe should be back... pass.
Had fields as my de facto capt. in primetime vs the commanders (I think), and he's been really good since, for fantasy atleast... The last 3 weeks, he's had an average of 23+ pass attempts, and 11+ rush attempts, he has hit atleast 60 yards rushing in each of those games. For perspective, his first 3 weeks he averaged 15 pass attempts, 9 rushes, and never topped 47 yards on the ground. There are a ton of cheap options at QB this week (which we'll get too), and I think he's the sneakiest one. Now I think he can be played naked, but I guess Mooney/Claypool?/Kmet can be stacked with him. Montgomery play 70% of snaps to Herberts 28%, yet herbert had 1 more carry (16 to 15), and almost double the yards (99 to 53), he continues to be the better back, but until the make the change, I think neither is playable. Plus Fields can vulture.
MIN/WAS
Vikings have a great P matchup, and bad RB matchup.
Commanders have a good P matchup, and meh RB matchup.
Cook has a good ALY push.
Heinicke has a bad ASR matchup, and Robinson? has a bad ALY push.
Vikes TTR is T-9th.
Commanders TTR is 16th.
Pace of play is 5th overall, 4th in MS. OURank is 7th.
- Injuries - MIN - On D, DT Tomlinson is out. On O, no TE Smith.
- WAS - On D, LB Holcomb is out, worth noting back LB MAyo, and Eifler have been out too. On O, no RB McKissic, or WR Dotson.
- Vikes have an above average TT, the pace is good, the O/U is middling, but they're also faves. I feel like nobody is talking about Cook, and it kind of makes me really like him, His past 2 games he's seen his highest combined snaps at 87/76%, and hadn't been utilized more last week, totaling 25 opportunities (5 catches) 141 Yds, and a TD, if it wasnt for many monster weeks from backs, this would have been a great effort. He has 100+ and multi td+ potential, and could be low owned (need to check projections). Osborn continues to see meaningful snaps but not much opportunity with Jefferson/Theilen. These two are literally the same person, but more targets/snaps for jefferson. Either of them can be the success/pivot off of cook if he underperforms. You can totally go this route, I will just be underweight, and how much will Hockenson eat into these 2!? Remains to be seen.
We can't trust robinson, he has yet to see 50% of snaps, and saw his season low of 25% last week. No more mckissic does open opportunities for both, as he had 36% snaps last week, and 5 targets, but gibson also had 36% of snaps and 7 targets of his own, I think they play from behind, and I honestly can see gibson getting 10+ targets in that scenario, I think he can be a sneaky cheap option. It's worth noting that McLaurin is an everydown WR practically, and with Heinicke, he's seen a 26% target share (in those 2 games), with 8 targets/game, and a 10 aDOT/r, he can always hit a homerun but I won't have much if any.
GBP/DET
Packers have a great P/RB matchup.
Lions have a great RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Rodgers has a great ASR matchup. Jones has a great ALY push.
Goff has a good ASR matchup. Swift? has the best ALY push.
Packers TTR is 2nd.
Lions TTR is T-9th.
Pace of play is 10th overall, 9th in MS. OURank is 1st.
- Injuries - GBP - On D, LB Campbell is out, LB Smith is Q w/ 2 injuries. On O, obviously no Cobb, but Lazard/Watson are Q and worth monitoring.
- DET - On D, no CB Parker, and backup CBs Melifonqu/Lucas are out. On O, WR Reynolds is doubtful, RB Swift is Q, TE Wright is Q.
- We have QBs/RBs in prime spots in this one, the only knock is the pace is shitty. Rodgers is one of those cheap QBs I mentioned that will probably be favored over the Fields type. If he's missing a WR or 2, we are already getting the cheap position here even cheaper (like herbert...). Doubs/Watkins played about 80% of snaps last week and both have had aDOT/rs over 10 (which is suprising for Doubs, as his sits at 4.7 on the season). If Lazard is out, I have interest in both, if he's in, I like him/Watkins more. Tonyan is a pretty shallow target catcher, but he did see his season high in snaps last week, but that could have been the script. Pass for me. Jones has steadily separated himself the past few weeks over Dillon, I have interest here, just last week he had 25 opportunies, 5 of which were targets, he has a supreme matchup, and a steady floor, and we know Rodgers tends to use these backs more when he needs to get right.
Idk what to do about the lions backfield.... I want to pass despite a great matchup as they'll be eating into eachother. Swift did see 55% of snaps but its reported he's still not 100% and won't have a full workload. In his 3 games he didn't play, Williams didn't even see 50% of snaps once... situation stinks. St. Brown saw 10 targets last week, there is now no more Hockenson, Reynolds is doubtful, chark has been on IR, and he played 95% of snaps... he could see 12+ targets easy. It's worth nothing that Kalif Raymond is obviously in the same situation, over the last 3 games he's landed between 85 and 90% of snaps, is seeing an average of almost 6 targets a game, and has an aDOT/r of 10+, he's also extremely cheap... I think he can be considered. If Brock Wright is out, James Mitchell is a minimum priced TE that should technically see a ton of snaps.
IND/NEP
Colts have a great RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Pats have a good P matchup, and bad RB matchup.
M. Jones has a meh ASR matchup. Stevenson has a meh ALY push.
Colts TTR is T-18th (T-Last.)
Pats TTR is 13th.
Pace of play is T-7th overall, T-6th in MS. OURank is 10th (last).
- Injuries - IND - On D, DT Lewis is out. On O, no RB Taylor.
- NEP - On D, a ton of Q's. On O, no WR Parker, RB Harris is Q, but the OL will be without C Andrews or T Cannon.
- Lets start with Deon Jackson. he averaged 19.5 opportunities in his 2 games without Taylor AND Hines. Moss may not suit up. I actually do think the Colts play with a lead/low scoring game, and this isn't matt ryan, so I doubt he sees a ton of dump offs, I think people gravitate towards him, but I like that it'll keep the gibson/carter ownerships even lower. Not saying he's a bad play, but the total here stinks, the pace is low, and there are some unknowns. Pittman saw 9 targets with Ehlinger, more shallow but still steady. Pierce was the deep threat, and he had 5 targets with an aDOT/r of 18, it's nice to see some arm strength with no Ryan, I think you can consider one-offing, but I probably won't be. Pass at TE.
If Harris is out, I have interest in Stevenson, just note 2 OLineman are out, and they already had a meh ALY push. I think he can still get there though with a TD, plus his targets, as he's seen 15 targets in the past 2 games, and one of those games they were never in a negative script. Not playing the guessing game at TE, pass. Meyers however has quietly scored 10+ fantasy points in every game this season, just last week he had 13 targets, the P matchup is better than the RB one here, and I do think they could be playing from behind/low scoring, and he could be peppered. I think he's an option too.
LVR/JAC
Raiders have a good P/RB matchup.
Jaguars have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Carr has a great ASR matchup, Jacobs has a great ALY push.
Lawrence has a great ASR matchup, Ettienne has a meh ALY push.
Raiders TTR is T-6th
Jags TTR is T-9th.
Pace of play is 9th overall, 8th in MS. OURank is 4th.
- Injuries - LVR - On D, CB Hobbs out for 3rd week, LB Deablo is Q. On O, TE Waller is Q.
- JAC - On D, CB Griffin out for 3rd week.
- We again have 2 cheap QBs in prime spots with a good OURank/TTR's. I think you have to pick a script and go for it here. Raiders fell behind last week and Jacobs saw his season low in snaps. I don't think that happens again exactly, but i'll temper my expectations, as jacobs has either finished as a top 3 RB 3 times, our outside of the top 24 3 times, he's range-y and is the 4th most expensive back. Hollins continues to see 90%+ snaps, and is averaging 5+ targets a game with a 10.5 aDOT/r, and he's not expensive, I think he can be considered. I like that Adams had a dud last week, he's expensive, people will be considering jacobs more, and practiced in full to end the week post illness. Despite the clunker, he's still averaging almost 10 targets a game, and almost 2 RZ targets a game, with a decent aDOT/r of 8.9. If no waller means more opportunities for all other pass catcher, and Carr is expected to have time in the pocket, I like it.
It's now B2B weeks of Ettienne at 80% of snaps, and he's seen 24 Opps/g, 4 of which are targets. That's a solid combo, and he's probably a bit to cheap for that kind of volume, just know he's techinically a dog, his ALY push is meh, and the pace isn't great, he will be highly owned and may be smarter to pivot in most lineups. Zay Jones continues to see virtually every snap work for the past 3 weeks, Kirk is right behind him, in those 3 weeks, they've seen almost identical stat lines, Jones is 6 targets a game to Kirks 7, aDOT/rs are 8.4 to 7.6... but Zay Jones comes cheaper. Marvin Jones though missed one of those games and has a touch less targets but much deeper aDOT/rs.... it's a crap shoot between the 3, I wouldn't be shocked to see any put up a clunker, and the other to put up a stud performance, idk what I'm doing here yet.
What I do like is seeing Engram see his snaps rise in 4 straight games, finishing at 93%, and he's had 4 straight games of atleast 6 targets, and finished top 9 at the position in 3 of those weeks, depsite scoring just 1 TD. He's cheap, and you know is a bit more reliable than predicting the WR position, which allows you to lock in TE and go more steady at WR.
CAR/CIN
Panthers have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Bengals have a great P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Foreman has a good ALY push.
Panthers TTR is T-18th (T-Last)
Bengals TTR is 5th.
Pace of play is 4th overall, 3rd in MS. OURank is T-8th.
- Injuries - CAR - On D, no CB Burris, CB Jackson is Q. 3rd week w/o DE Anderson. On O, no RB Hubbard, no WR R. Higgins.
- CIN - On D, no DT Tupou for 3rd week, no CB Hilton, no CB Awuzie, and CB Flowers is Q. On O, no WR Chase.
- Another week with Foreman being the lead back, he's seen his snaps rise to and may just command the backfield even in hubbards return. He had 68% snap count last week, he's had 22 opps/g in the 2 weeks, but last week finsihed at 27 total, he's had over 100 yards on the ground alone in both games, he's still too cheap, and has a good ALY push. Moore and Marshall are the WR1/2 on this team. Bengals are missing atleast 2 of their 4 cbs, maybe 3, and they're projected to be playing from behind. In the 2 weeks w/o anderson/mccaffrey, they've had a 58% target share, Moore has seen over 10 targets a game with an aDOT/r of 13.4, Marshal is at 6 targets a game with an aDOT/r of 11.5. I think pricewise, both can be considered. Pass at TE.
Despite the blowout loss, Higgins/Boyd without chase played almost every snap, but they finished with a combined 11 targets, how is that even possible?! I want to trust them, you aren't really getting a discount on higgins, and boyds is meh, I just think i'd rather pay up or down or around then take them at those prices. The panthers have only allowed a 300 yard passer once, and it took Jameis getting 2 40+ yard catches with 4 minutes to go down 15 to get there. If Mixon continues to see that target share, with out chase, and maybe playing from behind (if you see it that way), he has a solid floor, but if they play with a lead, you can argue the same thing. I think I'd rather him over the other positional players here.
4PMs/Main Slate
SEA/ARI
Seahawks have a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Cards have a meh P/RB matchup.
Walker has a meh ALY push.
Kyler has a meh ASR matchup, Connor? has a meh ALY push.
Seahawks TTR is 8th.
Cards TTR is 4th.
Pace of play is T2nd overall, and is 2nd in MS. OURank is T-2nd.
- Injuries - SEA - On D, DE Taylor is out for 2nd week. On O, no WR Goodwin.
- ARI - No new outs on D, on O, still no RB Dar. Williams, and Conner is GTD. On OL, they're missing like 3 guys for a few weeks now.
- Seattle plays 3 TEs, I'm not predicting which gets it. No Goodwin should open even more targets for Lockett/Metcalf, I'm repeating myself, but both guys are virtually the same, they have 25% target share, aDOT/rs of 9.6/9.7, but metcalf sees almost triple the RZ targets and would be my preferred option. Walker is in a meh matchup, and is a technically a dog, his biggest problem is he's averaging LESS than 2 targets a game since taking over... he obviously has a path to success on the ground if the script is favorable, but I won't be putting to many eggs here.
If no Connor, Benjamin should remain the 70-90% snap back, he only sees 17 opportunites a game, but 5 of those are targets, he has an ok floor and he's cheap in a game with a fast pace/great OU. Can we talk about DHop!! and becoming an immediate alpha gain. In his 2 games he's playing virtually every snap, he is averaging 13.5 targets a game with a good aDOT/r of 10.5, he's seen targets in the RZ, his 2 game actual average is 11-131-0.5, that's 27+ FPs. He may be matchup proof, and may be under Kupp when the season is over in terms of DK Price, yet he's only number 6 at the moment. The success of Hopkins has shadowed Ro. Moore a bit, the guy still plays just as much as hopkins, but his aDOT/r in the 2 games with him is 2.6, gross. He can be considered, but pass for me. Ertz is the most expensive TE on the slate, which I guess will keep his ownership down, but I'll probably play a punt at the position. He does get targets though, especially in the RZ, and again, is playing in one of the faster pace games with a high OU... so he can make it worth it.
LAR/TBB
Rams have a good RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Bucs have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Stafford has a bad ASR matchup, Henderson? has the worst ALY matchup.
Brady has a good ASR matchup, Fournette has a meh ALY matchup.
Rams TTR is 17th.
Bucs TTR is 14th.
Pace of play is 6th overall, 5th in MS. OURank is T-8th.
- Injuries - LAR - On D, CB Haley out for 3rd week. On O, WR Jefferson is Q, RB K. Williams may be activated, 3 OL who started the year have been out for 3+ weeks now.
- TBB - On D, no S Winfield, S Ryan out for 4+ weeks too, no LB Barrett, 3 others are Q. On O, no TE Brate, no WR Gage. On OL, G Goedeke is out for 2nd week.
- I'm not touch the rams backfield ever until proven otherwise. There are much better options at Staffords price for QB. Jefferson may be out, and Kupp did practice in full, but the ankle worries me especially if you have to pay the biggest price at WR for it. But Robinson is intriguing, he had 7 targets last week, should see more volume as dogs/teammate injuries, continues to see RZ targets, he's cheap, and I think he may be sub 1% owned in the smallest slate of the year, he's on my radar. Higbee is a safe floor guy, but he just doesn't see deep targets... last week he had 2 catches and 0 air yards, on the season he sits at 2.9... I don't like the upside in that.
Coming into this week, I wanted to take TBB D + Fournette, I may still do it, but not as enticing to me because he seems range-y too. His last 2 games he's seen under 10 carries a game, and we know this is a pass first team, but his targets have dropped off too in those games, and vs baltimore it was a pretty neutral script until late in the 4th. I'm not sure he's worth the 6th RB price on DK. Godwin/Evans continue to share the most targets, but Evans dumps on him when it comes ot depth, last week alone both saw 11 targets, caught 6, evans had an aDOT/r of 16.3, Godwin was 2.3.... just a massive difference, Evans also beat him in RZ targets 3 to 2, but both of those are respectable. I have interest in Evans every week in this pass first team where he gets atleast the majority of targets, and the deeper ones.
