DFS/Props Week 8 Discussion
- Thread starter ScopeY
- Start date
ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
Thursday Night/Showdown Slate
MIN@LAC
Vikings have a great RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Chargers have a good RB matchup, bad P matchup.
McCarthy? has a bad pass potential. Mason? has a meh rush potential.
Herbert has a bad pressure rate situation. Vidal has a good rush potential.
Pace of play is 10th (meh).
- There is a 3 game sample size with Wentz and Addison, and there isn't to much that separates JJ from Addison, they both have good aDOTs in the 13s, but JJ has a 28% target share to Addisons 23% (about 2 more targets/g), and Addison even has twice as many RZ targets (6 to 3), I say this because they are priced 4K apart.... I will have both, but I will be much more weighted towards Addison. Hockenson plays a lot, and on PPR sites he should be fine, but I hate his 3.2 aDOT, he has 0 TDs with Wentz, and even his backup oliver (who has about a 50% snap share) has avg'd 1 rz target/g, I will say he isn't to expensive, but I'll hope others fail when taking him. I'm fine with going down to Nailor, he actually gets a handle of RZ work too, and he is only 2.4K (half of Hockenson) w/ an 8+ aDOT. We can't really make a decision at RB until we know Jones status, but without him, Mason is an obvious play, he's ranging between 15-19 opps/g, with 2.33 targets/g, but if Jones is in, I am off of him, and will only have interest in Jones when building a LAC win type lineup.
Vidal will be one of my captain candidates, the guy has played 66%~ of snaps the L2, averaging 4.5 targets/g (never fewer than 4), and for the 3rd time this year, LAC has another RB injury, the guy who has been playing the other 33%~ of snaps... he should only have a higher floor/ceiling range now and he's cheap. Idk if it was because he had just came back from injury or not, but in Johnstons return last week, it was (finally) Ladd with Allen who dominated the show. They all had aDOTs ranging from 9.2 to 10.1, but Ladd/Allen made up 54% of the targets (28%/26%). I can't click QJ when he is the highest priced. If mass entering, I'll include him a touch just incase, but others I am sticking to the other 2. Gadsden is the other interesting guy, I made a note last week, and I had not played him, but he has put up b2b quality games. Having said that, and it may be the likely scenario, I would only play him if you think the pass volume will continue to be up there for this team, because he only had a 16.7% target share last week, despite 9 targets. If Herbert attempts 40~ passes, and not 55 passes, he drops to about 6 targets. But his aDOT is really good for a TE (9.9), and the attempts volume should still be on the north side of herberts range.
MIN@LAC
Vikings have a great RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Chargers have a good RB matchup, bad P matchup.
McCarthy? has a bad pass potential. Mason? has a meh rush potential.
Herbert has a bad pressure rate situation. Vidal has a good rush potential.
Pace of play is 10th (meh).
- There is a 3 game sample size with Wentz and Addison, and there isn't to much that separates JJ from Addison, they both have good aDOTs in the 13s, but JJ has a 28% target share to Addisons 23% (about 2 more targets/g), and Addison even has twice as many RZ targets (6 to 3), I say this because they are priced 4K apart.... I will have both, but I will be much more weighted towards Addison. Hockenson plays a lot, and on PPR sites he should be fine, but I hate his 3.2 aDOT, he has 0 TDs with Wentz, and even his backup oliver (who has about a 50% snap share) has avg'd 1 rz target/g, I will say he isn't to expensive, but I'll hope others fail when taking him. I'm fine with going down to Nailor, he actually gets a handle of RZ work too, and he is only 2.4K (half of Hockenson) w/ an 8+ aDOT. We can't really make a decision at RB until we know Jones status, but without him, Mason is an obvious play, he's ranging between 15-19 opps/g, with 2.33 targets/g, but if Jones is in, I am off of him, and will only have interest in Jones when building a LAC win type lineup.
Vidal will be one of my captain candidates, the guy has played 66%~ of snaps the L2, averaging 4.5 targets/g (never fewer than 4), and for the 3rd time this year, LAC has another RB injury, the guy who has been playing the other 33%~ of snaps... he should only have a higher floor/ceiling range now and he's cheap. Idk if it was because he had just came back from injury or not, but in Johnstons return last week, it was (finally) Ladd with Allen who dominated the show. They all had aDOTs ranging from 9.2 to 10.1, but Ladd/Allen made up 54% of the targets (28%/26%). I can't click QJ when he is the highest priced. If mass entering, I'll include him a touch just incase, but others I am sticking to the other 2. Gadsden is the other interesting guy, I made a note last week, and I had not played him, but he has put up b2b quality games. Having said that, and it may be the likely scenario, I would only play him if you think the pass volume will continue to be up there for this team, because he only had a 16.7% target share last week, despite 9 targets. If Herbert attempts 40~ passes, and not 55 passes, he drops to about 6 targets. But his aDOT is really good for a TE (9.9), and the attempts volume should still be on the north side of herberts range.
Last edited:
ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
Sunday 1PMs/Main Slate
NYG@PHI
Giants have a meh P/RB matchup.
Eagles have a great RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Dart has a meh pressure rate situation, and a meh pass potential.
Barkley has a good rush potential.
Giants TTR is 18th (meh).
Eagles TTR is T-6th (good).
Pace of play is 8th (meh). O/U Rank is 8th.
- I'll start with Dart, he has had 3 rushing TDs in 4 games, and is avg'ing 8.75 carries/g, he is just soo cheap at 5.5K, and has 3x'd this with ease in all 4 of his starts. I typically don't like paring QB with RB, but in tourneys it has been successful as it makes your lineup different. I thought Skattebo would see a dip with tracy back, but his usage has remained the same, and didn't see a target dip, as in his last 2 games he's avg'd 21.5 opps (4 targets/g), he can be considered. Wandale has a good target share at 26.25% with Dart, while his aDOT leaves a lot to be desired, 7, he is only 5.2K, and can easily get there on PPR sites, but with Slayton, his numbers drop to 20%, and 3.25 aDOT, I would recommend avoiding him, and go towards the cheaper WR nobody will be playing much, and that is Slayton, who in his 2 starts had a 17% target share, but a big time 16.9 aDOT. This whole giants team screams value, I want to include Theo Johnson too, as he has hit double digit FPs in 3 of 4 with dart, and is just 3.7K (double digits would at a minimum 3x this salary). I am not in love with Theo/Wandale if Slayton is in, but if he is out, I will be overweight. Worth noting that Johnson has 5 rz targets in the 4 games with Dart.
I know it's revenge game here, but Barkley has had 3 single digit performances in 7 games this season, and as yet to hit 19 fps total in any game, I'm concerned when paying 7.6K for that. My one saving grace is that everyone is thinking this, and we know he has HR hitting upside, so I don't mind taking a shot or two if mass entering in tourneys. Another reason for the above about Barkley is because this passing offense is so cheap for what they do. Since the return of Goedert, Brown and Smith have combined for a 54% target share. Brown sits at 29% (12.8 aDOT), and Smith at 25% (11 aDOT), but they are priced at 6.1K/5.9K, they both should be a touch higher, and I will have shares of these guys. I'll mention Goedert because he has been really good this year with a good te aDOT of 9.2, and a good 20% share, while this doesn't match the elite TEs, he is priced below them, my problem is I want to either find value or get to the top at this position, and I like the other pieces in this game much more, I will likely have no shares outside of a big game stack, maybe.
MIA@ATL
Dolphins have a good RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Falcons have a great P/RB matchup.
Tua has a bad pass potential.
Penix has a good pressure rate situation, and a good pass potential. Bijan has a great rush potential.
Dolphins TTR is 17th (meh).
Falcons TTR is 5th (good).
Pace of play is 9th (meh). O/U Rank is T-6th.
- No Hill, no Waller, and Waddle is Q, yes all pieces minus Achane scream value is Waddle is out, but I would limit it to just a one-off if you need a stars & scrubs lineup/salary saver, the problem is they now have 3 TEs (called up Dulcich), so I wouldnt go there, and at WR, maybe Washington or Ikhine --- agian if Waddle is out. But who I would really lean into if he is is Achane, I would think that he would be in line for 25+ opps, with a high target floor.
Play the RB vs MIA D, and we have one of this years goats, it is hard not to like Bijan, and if allgeier is out, we should still see 85%+ snap share, keep in mind he has had b2b games with 8 targets, and has yet to have fewer than 5 all season, that is CMC like. If Allgeier is in, i've stressed this before, but in ATLs wins, he has scored in all 3, and is avg'ing 14 carries/g, never fewer than 10... do we expect ATL to win, yes, then I think in tourneys, where mass entering, we can consider him as a cheap 4.8K option. I personally expect ATL to play with a lead, I don't want any pass catcher. The only one I'd say is contrarian for tourneys is London, he has hit 10+ targets in 3 straight, 2 of which were games ATL led in, and he is the #1 rz target for Penix, but I'd leave that for mass entering/pivot of Bijan in just a lineup or two.
NYJ@CIN
Jets have a great P/RB matchup.
Bengals have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Taylor has a meh pressure rate situation.
Flacco has a meh pressure rate situation, but a good pass potential. Brown has a meh rush potential.
Jets TTR is 16th (meh).
Bengals TTR is T-6th (good).
Pace of play is T-2nd (good). O/U Rank is T-6th.
- Assuming Taylor is in, In Taylors 1 full start, he 4x'd this salary in a game where he had just 2 TDs and 2 turnovers.... He is arguably going up against a softer defense --- I know there is no Wilson, which we will get too, but he has a rushing floor, and a projected positive pass script, he can be considered in tourneys at 4.5K. Wilson had a massive 37% target share, while his aDOT (the entire teams really) left a lot to be desired (5.7), the WR1 can get you there on PPR formats, and the WR1 this week only costs 3.9K.... 5-70-0 3x's this salary, if its something like 7-82-1, and we more than 5x'd it, sign me up. If mass entering and wanting to target these cheapies, I'd sprinkle in Arian Smith over Reynolds a few times, not Lazard. RBs had a 23% target share with Taylor in week 3, Hall finished with 6 targets, I can easily see a 70%+ snap share, with a good floor if you wanted to one-off him.
Flacco was in a neutral to positive pass script in both of his starts with CIN, and hit 45 and 47 pass attempts, I think most believe they won't be in a positive pass script, but if NYJ can either hit a big play or two, or get a defensive TD, I can see the path. Either way, Chase has had an insane 41% target share with Flacco, idk if that can be kept up, but even 30% of 33 pass attempts, which flacco has exceeded in all games this year, would put Chase at 10 targets... and both of those look like bottom/floor level of production, I think he can easily be considered. Higgins is fine, he leads in aDOT at 11.9, and had a 21% target share, but I probably won't have much. Now if you project a positive run script, which I think most of us do, Brown can be interesting, his opps have been down but he is getting the goalline work, he is still running his share of routes, and is dirt cheap at 5.4K, he and chase would be my primary bring backs/mini game stack options.
CHI@BAL
Bears have a great P/RB matchup.
Ravens have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Williams has a great pressure rate situation, and a good pass potential. Swift has a great rush potential.
Lamar has a bad pressure rate situation, and a bad pass potential. Henry has a bad rush potential.
Bears TTR is 11th.
Ravens TTR is 2nd (great).
Pace of play is 12th (bad). O/U Rank is 2nd (good).
- We have the BAL D back that has the BAL O to make the opposing team continue to score! The pace looks bad, but definitely dragged down at least a touch due to Rush over Lamar, and the blowouts they've been involved in. First Swift, he is coming off b2b 100+ yard games, but he has also seen his snaps level out to about 55%, while averaging 18.5 opps/g, 2 targets/g, I don't think I'll one-off him as I like others, but I think he is viable in game stacks despite the snap share drop, In games they played from behind/earlier in the season, he averaged 4.67 targets/g, and the matchup couldn't be better. In the games where CHI had a neutral to positive pass script, Odunze led the way with a 27% target share, and the best aDOT among all players for CHI with 12.5, I will have my fair share of him. If Moore is inactive, I will have interest in Zacchaeus (more than Burden).
They made Lamar the cheapest he has ever been, and in his 3 full starts he has practically 4x'd this salary, he is probably the most obvious QB selection on the slate. I don't want to click Henry, he practically has no PPR floor, having said that, he is just 6K, which may be the cheapest he has been in 4+ years, if people are off of him, that's when you jump in, as he can easily go for 100+ 2+ and break the slate open, I won't go overboard, but something to consider, especially when mass entering. In the first 3 weeks of the year, Flowers had a 30.6% target share, with a 10.1 aDOT, those metrics don't belong on a guy that is 5.4K, one of my favorite WR plays. I don't really want Andrews, but I will say, Likely hit 81% of snaps last week, as he had 3 straight games of decent jumps in playing time, BAL doesn't really trust the WRs after Flowers, and I think he can be considered at 2.6K, we know Lamar likes to target them in RZ, and this will be the first game they've played together --- I'd rather take a shot and be ahead of the train then chase it later.
SFO@HOU
49ers have a good RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Texans have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Purdy? has a great pressure rate situation, but a meh pass potential.
Stroud has a good pressure rate situation. Chubb/Marks has a meh rush potential.
49ers TTR is 14th (meh).
Texans TTR is 12th.
Pace of play is T-6th. O/U Rank is 9th (meh).
- CMC is matchup proof, and has hit atleast 22.7 PPR FPs in every game this year --- he is AVERAGING 9.7 targets a game through 7 games.... never fewer than 7 targets, re-read that again. And he has had fewer than 17 carries just once this year. If you can afford him, go for it, we just saw him hit 42 FPs in a game where SFO only scored 20 total points..... I know Kittle is coming off a 0 catch performance, but maybe a different script, and another week healthier, we could see his return, I only mention it because he is only 4.5K... week 1 he was 5.8K and was on pace for like 30+ FPs (semi joking, but not really). I wouldn't cross him off your list, and is a reason why I don't want Goedert and Co. at this price range. I know Bourne has flashed more, and been healthy, but just like Kittle, Jennings is another week healthier, and from what I can see at the moment, no longer carries an injury designation.... I don't know how CMC fits into lineups this week, and I don't want to over play my hand on this game, but Jennings is another one that can be considered, I know its a tough matchup on paper, but Jones was averaging 313 passing yards in his first 4 starts, and in tournaments, you can convince me of anything, I don't think this one is that outrageous, and if he does, it will funnel through those 3 guys above.
Houston can not run the ball, so Stroud being 5.1K, and having to put the team on his shoulders looks like a safe bet to at the least 3x+ this salary with relative ease. It looks like no Collins/Kirk, and schultz is even Q. There is really no metrics to look at in this case, but Hutinchson/Higgins --- Noel would be how I go about this, and stacking stroud with 1 costs less than 9K total (the price of CMC lmao), Even if you don't want to play stroud, these WRs do give you cheap value options with some upside.
CLV@NEP
Browns have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Pats have a bad P/RB matchup.
Gabriel has a meh pressure rate situation, and a bad pass potential.
Maye has a good pass potential. Stevenson has a bad rush potential.
Browns TTR is T-19th (bad/last).
Pats TTR is 9th (good).
Pace of play is T-6th. O/U Rank is 10th (meh/last)
- I can't chase Judkins performance vs MIA, he has no PPR upside, even in the game CLV fell behind and Gabriel threw 52 times, he had 1 target... if you want to play one of these pass catchers, you have to think this game doesn't play in a neutral script, as they are limiting his volume if it is possible. Can't forget CLV has the lowest TT for the week, so I don't want much of them anyways, but for one-offs, I'd limit it to just Jeudy, he no longer carries an injury designation, and has a 22% target share/10 aDOT with Gabriel, and we expect the higher end of the volume if we believe Pats play with a lead. Off on fannin, I like him, but I want other TEs. Rest are pass.
Stevenson is coming off b2b 72%+ snap counts, and for the first time this year, he hit 20 opps (2 targets), I will always consider a 5K RB with 20+ opp upside, and it looks like they've given him the backfield, he is the redzone back as well, and they are favorites --- I know the matchup is tough, but if he goes unowned, I could see a path to 3x'ing this salary. Problem with this offense, is any given week, it may be another guy.... 11 guys had targets on this team the L3, but only 1 has a target share at/above 16%, and that is Diggs with a big 29% target share, I'll be underweight, but on PPR sites, I'd leave him on my list. Only other thing I'll note, is Henry is back to his lowest price of the season, and we've seen tournament winning upside on him for a couple years now, and the last time he was priced here this year, he hit for 29 fps, you could consider him too.
BUF@CAR
Bills have a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Panthers have a great RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Allen has a great pressure rate situation, and a great pass potential. Cook has a good rush potential.
Dalton has a bad pressure rate situation, and a meh pass potential. Dowdle/Chubba has a great rush potential.
Bills TTR is 4th (great).
Panthers TTR is 15th (meh).
Pace of play is 13th (bad/last). O/U Rank is T-4th (good).
- It is hard to really breakdown the underlying mentrics with this team as players have been in and out on offense.... what I will say, is we typically hate the pass catchers here because Allen will send it to anyone. Having said that, Coleman playing time keeps him at the top, and with no Palmer, he has the standout aDOT over Shakir (12.1 to 3.8), and I get the feeling nobody will be playing him in what looks to be a tough matchup. Also if Kincaid is out, I will be overexposed to him (and shakir a touch). Cook is starting to slide to early season price, but in 3 of his 6 games he hasn't even eclipsed 1 target, and we know Allen is a vulture... the matchup is tough, and I'll pass.
Last year Dalton started 5 games (weeks 3-7), and he supported WR1 production, as Diontae Johnson had a 28% target share/10.2 aDOT. If they fall behind, McMillan, I think McMillan, could eat. If you think legette, go for it, but they would be the only 2 I consider, and the other WRs are pretty much phased out. If CAR wants to compete, and I think they obviously know this, the best bet is to keep the ball out of Daltons hands and do what ATL did, run it. And they've been doing that so well since Dowdle has had his time to shine. The problem is Chubba came back last week and this looks like a true 5050 split, they combined for 36 total opps (5 targets), neither fewer than 14 carries/2 targets. I can really see both arguements. Dowdle maybe is to expensive for his current role, or even in his current role, he hit 19 opps, almost 100 total yards, and has an easier matchup, and you would think, could slowly get more and more of the time share.... personally, I will have some shares, but probably be underweight.
Sunday 4PMs/Main Slate (Cont.)
TBB@NOS
Bucs have a great P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Saints have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Baker has a good pressure rate situation, and a great pass potential. Bucky? has a bad rush potential.
Rattler has a bad pressure rate situation, and a meh pass potential. Kamara has a meh rush potential.
Bucs TTR is T-6th (good).
Saints TTR is 13th.
Pace of play is 1st (good). O/U Rank is T-4th (good).
- With Evans/Egbuka back last week, I dropped Tez from a handful of my year longs (after picking him up that week) and after last weeks performance, I wasn't able to get him back --- still mad about that, had to get that out, moving on. Whites avg'ing over 80% of snaps without Bucky, 18 opps, 4.33 targets/g, never fewer than 3.... the matchup is nice, they are slight faves, the pace is #1, the total is good, what's not to like? I guess I could say I like other RBs, and there's only so many you can start, and having 80%+ of snaps, but having trouble hitting 20 opps isn't the best either... I'll be underweight, but I'm not crossing him off. This is another offense with tough to look at metrics because of the revolving door the weapons have been doing. Otton has seen his targets go up by way of ingame injuries, I think normally that hasn't been the case, but in PPR formats you can go there if you'd like. Egbuka feels a touch expensive, but if he truly is off the injury report, the volume should funnel through him first, and I think I like him the most as Tez will be the sexy pick, having said that Tez is 2.7K cheaper than Egbuka, and he has competed in aDOT with him, I won't be exluding him.
I like playing QBs vs TBB, and Rattler is priced under the typical floor for starting QBs (5K), he is 4.7K, last week he 3x'd this despite FOUR turnovers.... he is one of my favorite plays actually. Kamara got to over 80% of snaps again with the Miller injury, He is to cheap at 5.7K, I don't like the rushing matchup for him --- unless Vea is out, sign me up, but we know he can get there with his PPR floor, and should be included on your list. Olave continues his streak of double digits FPs for the entirety of the year, hitting a season high 26.8 last week.... Over his L3 he has a 32% target share/12.4 aDOT, which are actually slightly better than his year long metrics, I will be on him again. Shaheed can always be considered in tourneys, but he is a bit to closely priced to Olave, despite a drop in target share, and actually a similar aDOT. Off Johnson since the return of the TEs behind him, his targets have really fallen, lets see if last weeks blip is a return to the early season numbers, but I'll pass for now.
TEN@IND
Titans have a meh P/RB matchup.
Colts have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Ward has a great pressure rate situation, but a bad pass potential. Pollard/Spears have a bad rush potential.
D. Jones has a great pressure rate situation, and a great pass potential. Taylor has a great rush potential.
Titans TTR is T-19th (bad/last)
Colts TTR is 1st (great).
Pace of play is 4th. O/U Rank is 3rd (good).
- Similar to CLV, we at best want to just one-off this offense, but can easily skip it entirely if you'd like. My problem is the matchup is the best is could be, they don't have a defense like CLV that can keep a game close (more passing opps), and they are all priced so cheap. Pass on this backfield though, they have some PPR volume, but Pollard/Spears have had 12/9 opps total in each of the last 2 games respectively, just can't do it. Ayomanor still leads this team in targets the L2, and has a 12.1 aDOT, I don't mind taking a shot with him, I am not chasing Dike, and think if you don't want Ayomanor, then maybe TD hunt with Jefferson, otherwise pass. No ty at TE.
We are at the alpha RB part of the discussion where Henry/Barkley/CMC all have been at certain points of the last few years ---- we either need to fade ownership and hope it doesn't screw all your lineups, or go in on it and get different elsewhere. Taylor just has been that good, and already has 3 3 TD games on the season.... one of which was vs this very same team. The best part of Taylor is he has had a PPR floor this year too averaging 3.6 targets/g, and fewer than 3 just once (2), on top of a great oline, rz work, etc..... But do we pay 9.5K for this masterpiece, idk yet. One way to gain instant leverage is to maybe think about Danny dimes, and hope the TDs funnel through the air, or through Jones' legs. The weapons of this offense have all been healthy just once in the L4, and in that game, Warren led with a big 30% target share (6 aDOT), and Downs, despite playing the last of the 4, had a 23% target share (4.7 aDOT), I'm not in love with either aDOT, and if IND plays with this big time lead, Jones may be limited in pass attempts (he had just 25 in his last matchup vs TEN)... I say this, because if you go this route, you want TEN to keep pace to the point where you should really be playing a TEN bring back.
DAL@DEN
Cowboys have a good RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Broncos have a great P/RB matchup.
Dak has a great pass potential.
Nix has a good pressure rate situation. Dobbins has a great rush potential.
Cowboys TTR is 10th (good).
Broncos TTR is 3rd (great).
Pace of play is T-2nd (good). O/U Rank is 1st (great).
- Dak has had 4 straight games of 3+ TDs, if you think this defense is a bit overrated, or that Dak can continue this level this week keep going, the pace/total are great.... I actually think DEN should set the pace too, so maybe that helps with volume.... Having said all that, I'd rather fade what I think will be a bit to high of ownership for this matchup. I will say, this offense looks as concentrated as ever with Lambs return. about 86% of all targets went to these 4, WR1/2/TE1/RB1. Lamb/Pickens/Ferguson all hit over 20% of targets. My fear with ferguson is his price, matched with his 1 aDOT, yes one point zero. Pickens is still priced so high, but while his target share was lower than Lambs (21% compared to 27%), his aDOT was awesome at 18.67... if you like this passing offense, you can go either way of the 2. Jav continues to see good work, even in the 22 point win he hit 4 targets, and has had a relatively good ppr floor... I'm leaning to be underweight, but I wouldn't be surprised at a 20+ FP game and a relatively low ownership.
While Dobbins is in the 5K range, he offers no ppr floor, hitting just 1 target in 4 straight, and has yet to get to 3 in any game, and has kind of been capped to 50% of snaps, pass. We may want a DAL bringback because we have to like Nix at 6K, he has a rushing floor, and big upside vs this DAL D that has been a opposing QBs fantasy dream for most of the season. Like my comments last week, you could play him naked even. I think Engram is trending in the right direction, but he has a poor aDOT, and a decently low floor for not being a punt priced TE. If you look at the L4 weeks, Franklin actually grades out better than Sutton (despite a much lower snap share) and he comes in 2K cheaper, and he has a whopping 7 Rz targets in that span which leads the team... he is quietly a favorite play of mine --- that's not to say I won't have some sutton, maybe even a Mims too.
NYG@PHI
Giants have a meh P/RB matchup.
Eagles have a great RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Dart has a meh pressure rate situation, and a meh pass potential.
Barkley has a good rush potential.
Giants TTR is 18th (meh).
Eagles TTR is T-6th (good).
Pace of play is 8th (meh). O/U Rank is 8th.
- I'll start with Dart, he has had 3 rushing TDs in 4 games, and is avg'ing 8.75 carries/g, he is just soo cheap at 5.5K, and has 3x'd this with ease in all 4 of his starts. I typically don't like paring QB with RB, but in tourneys it has been successful as it makes your lineup different. I thought Skattebo would see a dip with tracy back, but his usage has remained the same, and didn't see a target dip, as in his last 2 games he's avg'd 21.5 opps (4 targets/g), he can be considered. Wandale has a good target share at 26.25% with Dart, while his aDOT leaves a lot to be desired, 7, he is only 5.2K, and can easily get there on PPR sites, but with Slayton, his numbers drop to 20%, and 3.25 aDOT, I would recommend avoiding him, and go towards the cheaper WR nobody will be playing much, and that is Slayton, who in his 2 starts had a 17% target share, but a big time 16.9 aDOT. This whole giants team screams value, I want to include Theo Johnson too, as he has hit double digit FPs in 3 of 4 with dart, and is just 3.7K (double digits would at a minimum 3x this salary). I am not in love with Theo/Wandale if Slayton is in, but if he is out, I will be overweight. Worth noting that Johnson has 5 rz targets in the 4 games with Dart.
I know it's revenge game here, but Barkley has had 3 single digit performances in 7 games this season, and as yet to hit 19 fps total in any game, I'm concerned when paying 7.6K for that. My one saving grace is that everyone is thinking this, and we know he has HR hitting upside, so I don't mind taking a shot or two if mass entering in tourneys. Another reason for the above about Barkley is because this passing offense is so cheap for what they do. Since the return of Goedert, Brown and Smith have combined for a 54% target share. Brown sits at 29% (12.8 aDOT), and Smith at 25% (11 aDOT), but they are priced at 6.1K/5.9K, they both should be a touch higher, and I will have shares of these guys. I'll mention Goedert because he has been really good this year with a good te aDOT of 9.2, and a good 20% share, while this doesn't match the elite TEs, he is priced below them, my problem is I want to either find value or get to the top at this position, and I like the other pieces in this game much more, I will likely have no shares outside of a big game stack, maybe.
MIA@ATL
Dolphins have a good RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Falcons have a great P/RB matchup.
Tua has a bad pass potential.
Penix has a good pressure rate situation, and a good pass potential. Bijan has a great rush potential.
Dolphins TTR is 17th (meh).
Falcons TTR is 5th (good).
Pace of play is 9th (meh). O/U Rank is T-6th.
- No Hill, no Waller, and Waddle is Q, yes all pieces minus Achane scream value is Waddle is out, but I would limit it to just a one-off if you need a stars & scrubs lineup/salary saver, the problem is they now have 3 TEs (called up Dulcich), so I wouldnt go there, and at WR, maybe Washington or Ikhine --- agian if Waddle is out. But who I would really lean into if he is is Achane, I would think that he would be in line for 25+ opps, with a high target floor.
Play the RB vs MIA D, and we have one of this years goats, it is hard not to like Bijan, and if allgeier is out, we should still see 85%+ snap share, keep in mind he has had b2b games with 8 targets, and has yet to have fewer than 5 all season, that is CMC like. If Allgeier is in, i've stressed this before, but in ATLs wins, he has scored in all 3, and is avg'ing 14 carries/g, never fewer than 10... do we expect ATL to win, yes, then I think in tourneys, where mass entering, we can consider him as a cheap 4.8K option. I personally expect ATL to play with a lead, I don't want any pass catcher. The only one I'd say is contrarian for tourneys is London, he has hit 10+ targets in 3 straight, 2 of which were games ATL led in, and he is the #1 rz target for Penix, but I'd leave that for mass entering/pivot of Bijan in just a lineup or two.
NYJ@CIN
Jets have a great P/RB matchup.
Bengals have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Taylor has a meh pressure rate situation.
Flacco has a meh pressure rate situation, but a good pass potential. Brown has a meh rush potential.
Jets TTR is 16th (meh).
Bengals TTR is T-6th (good).
Pace of play is T-2nd (good). O/U Rank is T-6th.
- Assuming Taylor is in, In Taylors 1 full start, he 4x'd this salary in a game where he had just 2 TDs and 2 turnovers.... He is arguably going up against a softer defense --- I know there is no Wilson, which we will get too, but he has a rushing floor, and a projected positive pass script, he can be considered in tourneys at 4.5K. Wilson had a massive 37% target share, while his aDOT (the entire teams really) left a lot to be desired (5.7), the WR1 can get you there on PPR formats, and the WR1 this week only costs 3.9K.... 5-70-0 3x's this salary, if its something like 7-82-1, and we more than 5x'd it, sign me up. If mass entering and wanting to target these cheapies, I'd sprinkle in Arian Smith over Reynolds a few times, not Lazard. RBs had a 23% target share with Taylor in week 3, Hall finished with 6 targets, I can easily see a 70%+ snap share, with a good floor if you wanted to one-off him.
Flacco was in a neutral to positive pass script in both of his starts with CIN, and hit 45 and 47 pass attempts, I think most believe they won't be in a positive pass script, but if NYJ can either hit a big play or two, or get a defensive TD, I can see the path. Either way, Chase has had an insane 41% target share with Flacco, idk if that can be kept up, but even 30% of 33 pass attempts, which flacco has exceeded in all games this year, would put Chase at 10 targets... and both of those look like bottom/floor level of production, I think he can easily be considered. Higgins is fine, he leads in aDOT at 11.9, and had a 21% target share, but I probably won't have much. Now if you project a positive run script, which I think most of us do, Brown can be interesting, his opps have been down but he is getting the goalline work, he is still running his share of routes, and is dirt cheap at 5.4K, he and chase would be my primary bring backs/mini game stack options.
CHI@BAL
Bears have a great P/RB matchup.
Ravens have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Williams has a great pressure rate situation, and a good pass potential. Swift has a great rush potential.
Lamar has a bad pressure rate situation, and a bad pass potential. Henry has a bad rush potential.
Bears TTR is 11th.
Ravens TTR is 2nd (great).
Pace of play is 12th (bad). O/U Rank is 2nd (good).
- We have the BAL D back that has the BAL O to make the opposing team continue to score! The pace looks bad, but definitely dragged down at least a touch due to Rush over Lamar, and the blowouts they've been involved in. First Swift, he is coming off b2b 100+ yard games, but he has also seen his snaps level out to about 55%, while averaging 18.5 opps/g, 2 targets/g, I don't think I'll one-off him as I like others, but I think he is viable in game stacks despite the snap share drop, In games they played from behind/earlier in the season, he averaged 4.67 targets/g, and the matchup couldn't be better. In the games where CHI had a neutral to positive pass script, Odunze led the way with a 27% target share, and the best aDOT among all players for CHI with 12.5, I will have my fair share of him. If Moore is inactive, I will have interest in Zacchaeus (more than Burden).
They made Lamar the cheapest he has ever been, and in his 3 full starts he has practically 4x'd this salary, he is probably the most obvious QB selection on the slate. I don't want to click Henry, he practically has no PPR floor, having said that, he is just 6K, which may be the cheapest he has been in 4+ years, if people are off of him, that's when you jump in, as he can easily go for 100+ 2+ and break the slate open, I won't go overboard, but something to consider, especially when mass entering. In the first 3 weeks of the year, Flowers had a 30.6% target share, with a 10.1 aDOT, those metrics don't belong on a guy that is 5.4K, one of my favorite WR plays. I don't really want Andrews, but I will say, Likely hit 81% of snaps last week, as he had 3 straight games of decent jumps in playing time, BAL doesn't really trust the WRs after Flowers, and I think he can be considered at 2.6K, we know Lamar likes to target them in RZ, and this will be the first game they've played together --- I'd rather take a shot and be ahead of the train then chase it later.
SFO@HOU
49ers have a good RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Texans have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Purdy? has a great pressure rate situation, but a meh pass potential.
Stroud has a good pressure rate situation. Chubb/Marks has a meh rush potential.
49ers TTR is 14th (meh).
Texans TTR is 12th.
Pace of play is T-6th. O/U Rank is 9th (meh).
- CMC is matchup proof, and has hit atleast 22.7 PPR FPs in every game this year --- he is AVERAGING 9.7 targets a game through 7 games.... never fewer than 7 targets, re-read that again. And he has had fewer than 17 carries just once this year. If you can afford him, go for it, we just saw him hit 42 FPs in a game where SFO only scored 20 total points..... I know Kittle is coming off a 0 catch performance, but maybe a different script, and another week healthier, we could see his return, I only mention it because he is only 4.5K... week 1 he was 5.8K and was on pace for like 30+ FPs (semi joking, but not really). I wouldn't cross him off your list, and is a reason why I don't want Goedert and Co. at this price range. I know Bourne has flashed more, and been healthy, but just like Kittle, Jennings is another week healthier, and from what I can see at the moment, no longer carries an injury designation.... I don't know how CMC fits into lineups this week, and I don't want to over play my hand on this game, but Jennings is another one that can be considered, I know its a tough matchup on paper, but Jones was averaging 313 passing yards in his first 4 starts, and in tournaments, you can convince me of anything, I don't think this one is that outrageous, and if he does, it will funnel through those 3 guys above.
Houston can not run the ball, so Stroud being 5.1K, and having to put the team on his shoulders looks like a safe bet to at the least 3x+ this salary with relative ease. It looks like no Collins/Kirk, and schultz is even Q. There is really no metrics to look at in this case, but Hutinchson/Higgins --- Noel would be how I go about this, and stacking stroud with 1 costs less than 9K total (the price of CMC lmao), Even if you don't want to play stroud, these WRs do give you cheap value options with some upside.
CLV@NEP
Browns have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Pats have a bad P/RB matchup.
Gabriel has a meh pressure rate situation, and a bad pass potential.
Maye has a good pass potential. Stevenson has a bad rush potential.
Browns TTR is T-19th (bad/last).
Pats TTR is 9th (good).
Pace of play is T-6th. O/U Rank is 10th (meh/last)
- I can't chase Judkins performance vs MIA, he has no PPR upside, even in the game CLV fell behind and Gabriel threw 52 times, he had 1 target... if you want to play one of these pass catchers, you have to think this game doesn't play in a neutral script, as they are limiting his volume if it is possible. Can't forget CLV has the lowest TT for the week, so I don't want much of them anyways, but for one-offs, I'd limit it to just Jeudy, he no longer carries an injury designation, and has a 22% target share/10 aDOT with Gabriel, and we expect the higher end of the volume if we believe Pats play with a lead. Off on fannin, I like him, but I want other TEs. Rest are pass.
Stevenson is coming off b2b 72%+ snap counts, and for the first time this year, he hit 20 opps (2 targets), I will always consider a 5K RB with 20+ opp upside, and it looks like they've given him the backfield, he is the redzone back as well, and they are favorites --- I know the matchup is tough, but if he goes unowned, I could see a path to 3x'ing this salary. Problem with this offense, is any given week, it may be another guy.... 11 guys had targets on this team the L3, but only 1 has a target share at/above 16%, and that is Diggs with a big 29% target share, I'll be underweight, but on PPR sites, I'd leave him on my list. Only other thing I'll note, is Henry is back to his lowest price of the season, and we've seen tournament winning upside on him for a couple years now, and the last time he was priced here this year, he hit for 29 fps, you could consider him too.
BUF@CAR
Bills have a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Panthers have a great RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Allen has a great pressure rate situation, and a great pass potential. Cook has a good rush potential.
Dalton has a bad pressure rate situation, and a meh pass potential. Dowdle/Chubba has a great rush potential.
Bills TTR is 4th (great).
Panthers TTR is 15th (meh).
Pace of play is 13th (bad/last). O/U Rank is T-4th (good).
- It is hard to really breakdown the underlying mentrics with this team as players have been in and out on offense.... what I will say, is we typically hate the pass catchers here because Allen will send it to anyone. Having said that, Coleman playing time keeps him at the top, and with no Palmer, he has the standout aDOT over Shakir (12.1 to 3.8), and I get the feeling nobody will be playing him in what looks to be a tough matchup. Also if Kincaid is out, I will be overexposed to him (and shakir a touch). Cook is starting to slide to early season price, but in 3 of his 6 games he hasn't even eclipsed 1 target, and we know Allen is a vulture... the matchup is tough, and I'll pass.
Last year Dalton started 5 games (weeks 3-7), and he supported WR1 production, as Diontae Johnson had a 28% target share/10.2 aDOT. If they fall behind, McMillan, I think McMillan, could eat. If you think legette, go for it, but they would be the only 2 I consider, and the other WRs are pretty much phased out. If CAR wants to compete, and I think they obviously know this, the best bet is to keep the ball out of Daltons hands and do what ATL did, run it. And they've been doing that so well since Dowdle has had his time to shine. The problem is Chubba came back last week and this looks like a true 5050 split, they combined for 36 total opps (5 targets), neither fewer than 14 carries/2 targets. I can really see both arguements. Dowdle maybe is to expensive for his current role, or even in his current role, he hit 19 opps, almost 100 total yards, and has an easier matchup, and you would think, could slowly get more and more of the time share.... personally, I will have some shares, but probably be underweight.
Sunday 4PMs/Main Slate (Cont.)
TBB@NOS
Bucs have a great P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Saints have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Baker has a good pressure rate situation, and a great pass potential. Bucky? has a bad rush potential.
Rattler has a bad pressure rate situation, and a meh pass potential. Kamara has a meh rush potential.
Bucs TTR is T-6th (good).
Saints TTR is 13th.
Pace of play is 1st (good). O/U Rank is T-4th (good).
- With Evans/Egbuka back last week, I dropped Tez from a handful of my year longs (after picking him up that week) and after last weeks performance, I wasn't able to get him back --- still mad about that, had to get that out, moving on. Whites avg'ing over 80% of snaps without Bucky, 18 opps, 4.33 targets/g, never fewer than 3.... the matchup is nice, they are slight faves, the pace is #1, the total is good, what's not to like? I guess I could say I like other RBs, and there's only so many you can start, and having 80%+ of snaps, but having trouble hitting 20 opps isn't the best either... I'll be underweight, but I'm not crossing him off. This is another offense with tough to look at metrics because of the revolving door the weapons have been doing. Otton has seen his targets go up by way of ingame injuries, I think normally that hasn't been the case, but in PPR formats you can go there if you'd like. Egbuka feels a touch expensive, but if he truly is off the injury report, the volume should funnel through him first, and I think I like him the most as Tez will be the sexy pick, having said that Tez is 2.7K cheaper than Egbuka, and he has competed in aDOT with him, I won't be exluding him.
I like playing QBs vs TBB, and Rattler is priced under the typical floor for starting QBs (5K), he is 4.7K, last week he 3x'd this despite FOUR turnovers.... he is one of my favorite plays actually. Kamara got to over 80% of snaps again with the Miller injury, He is to cheap at 5.7K, I don't like the rushing matchup for him --- unless Vea is out, sign me up, but we know he can get there with his PPR floor, and should be included on your list. Olave continues his streak of double digits FPs for the entirety of the year, hitting a season high 26.8 last week.... Over his L3 he has a 32% target share/12.4 aDOT, which are actually slightly better than his year long metrics, I will be on him again. Shaheed can always be considered in tourneys, but he is a bit to closely priced to Olave, despite a drop in target share, and actually a similar aDOT. Off Johnson since the return of the TEs behind him, his targets have really fallen, lets see if last weeks blip is a return to the early season numbers, but I'll pass for now.
TEN@IND
Titans have a meh P/RB matchup.
Colts have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Ward has a great pressure rate situation, but a bad pass potential. Pollard/Spears have a bad rush potential.
D. Jones has a great pressure rate situation, and a great pass potential. Taylor has a great rush potential.
Titans TTR is T-19th (bad/last)
Colts TTR is 1st (great).
Pace of play is 4th. O/U Rank is 3rd (good).
- Similar to CLV, we at best want to just one-off this offense, but can easily skip it entirely if you'd like. My problem is the matchup is the best is could be, they don't have a defense like CLV that can keep a game close (more passing opps), and they are all priced so cheap. Pass on this backfield though, they have some PPR volume, but Pollard/Spears have had 12/9 opps total in each of the last 2 games respectively, just can't do it. Ayomanor still leads this team in targets the L2, and has a 12.1 aDOT, I don't mind taking a shot with him, I am not chasing Dike, and think if you don't want Ayomanor, then maybe TD hunt with Jefferson, otherwise pass. No ty at TE.
We are at the alpha RB part of the discussion where Henry/Barkley/CMC all have been at certain points of the last few years ---- we either need to fade ownership and hope it doesn't screw all your lineups, or go in on it and get different elsewhere. Taylor just has been that good, and already has 3 3 TD games on the season.... one of which was vs this very same team. The best part of Taylor is he has had a PPR floor this year too averaging 3.6 targets/g, and fewer than 3 just once (2), on top of a great oline, rz work, etc..... But do we pay 9.5K for this masterpiece, idk yet. One way to gain instant leverage is to maybe think about Danny dimes, and hope the TDs funnel through the air, or through Jones' legs. The weapons of this offense have all been healthy just once in the L4, and in that game, Warren led with a big 30% target share (6 aDOT), and Downs, despite playing the last of the 4, had a 23% target share (4.7 aDOT), I'm not in love with either aDOT, and if IND plays with this big time lead, Jones may be limited in pass attempts (he had just 25 in his last matchup vs TEN)... I say this, because if you go this route, you want TEN to keep pace to the point where you should really be playing a TEN bring back.
DAL@DEN
Cowboys have a good RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Broncos have a great P/RB matchup.
Dak has a great pass potential.
Nix has a good pressure rate situation. Dobbins has a great rush potential.
Cowboys TTR is 10th (good).
Broncos TTR is 3rd (great).
Pace of play is T-2nd (good). O/U Rank is 1st (great).
- Dak has had 4 straight games of 3+ TDs, if you think this defense is a bit overrated, or that Dak can continue this level this week keep going, the pace/total are great.... I actually think DEN should set the pace too, so maybe that helps with volume.... Having said all that, I'd rather fade what I think will be a bit to high of ownership for this matchup. I will say, this offense looks as concentrated as ever with Lambs return. about 86% of all targets went to these 4, WR1/2/TE1/RB1. Lamb/Pickens/Ferguson all hit over 20% of targets. My fear with ferguson is his price, matched with his 1 aDOT, yes one point zero. Pickens is still priced so high, but while his target share was lower than Lambs (21% compared to 27%), his aDOT was awesome at 18.67... if you like this passing offense, you can go either way of the 2. Jav continues to see good work, even in the 22 point win he hit 4 targets, and has had a relatively good ppr floor... I'm leaning to be underweight, but I wouldn't be surprised at a 20+ FP game and a relatively low ownership.
While Dobbins is in the 5K range, he offers no ppr floor, hitting just 1 target in 4 straight, and has yet to get to 3 in any game, and has kind of been capped to 50% of snaps, pass. We may want a DAL bringback because we have to like Nix at 6K, he has a rushing floor, and big upside vs this DAL D that has been a opposing QBs fantasy dream for most of the season. Like my comments last week, you could play him naked even. I think Engram is trending in the right direction, but he has a poor aDOT, and a decently low floor for not being a punt priced TE. If you look at the L4 weeks, Franklin actually grades out better than Sutton (despite a much lower snap share) and he comes in 2K cheaper, and he has a whopping 7 Rz targets in that span which leads the team... he is quietly a favorite play of mine --- that's not to say I won't have some sutton, maybe even a Mims too.
Last edited:
ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
Sunday Night/Showdown Slate
GBP@PIT
Packers have a good P/RB matchup.
Steelers have a meh P/RB matchup.
Love has a great pass potential. Jacobs has a good rush potential.
Rodgers has a good pressure rate situation, but a meh pass potential.
Pace of play is 11th (Bad).
- Notes
GBP@PIT
Packers have a good P/RB matchup.
Steelers have a meh P/RB matchup.
Love has a great pass potential. Jacobs has a good rush potential.
Rodgers has a good pressure rate situation, but a meh pass potential.
Pace of play is 11th (Bad).
- Notes
Last edited:
ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
Monday Night/Showdown Slate
WAS@KCC
Commanders have a good RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Chiefs have a good P/RB matchup.
Mariota? has a bad pressure rate situation. Croskey has a good rush potential.
Mahomes has a meh pressure rate situation, but a great pass potential.
Pace of play is 5th.
- It is hard to gauge metrics for WAS, as Mariota is starting, and in 1 of his 2 starts this year, McLaurin was not in, and in the other, they had a 3+ possession win vs Raiders. I will say, I expect the passing volume to be a touch higher than his norm with who the opponent is, and I expect WAS to be aggressive not only because of that, but the Kicker is dealing with a back issue. I kind of like him as a sneaky capt. option because of his rushing upside as well, and nobody will be doing it. I don't love Ertz, but his aDOT with Mariota this year is almost 10, but in 2 full games (1 without Mclaurin too) he only has a 17% target share... he is cheap enough to consider, but I won't be going overboard. I think Lane/Moore/McCaffrey can be avoided, if you need a cheap 1-off maybe we can find one on the otherside, we just don't know how the WR3 position will shake out, if I had to pick though I'd go Moore>Lane>McCaffrey. I will have shares of both Deebo and McLaurin, but I lean Deebo for full PPR sites, McLaurin on half. If anyone thinks WAS keeps this game close, or even play with a lead, I think you play Croskey as your captain, otherwise avoid him entirely... as he gets scripted out, and offers low PPR value, but again, he actually has very good RB metrics (YAC/pa, ERR, etc.), so I can see a path to 100+ 2+ like 3 weeks ago.
We had all healthy participants last week, and it went so well the starters didn't even play an entire game. In that game Rice still managed a 29.5% target share (despite a terrible 0.8 aDOT.....), I do like him a lot on PPR sites, a little bit less on half ppr, but it is worth noting that Mahomes looked his way 4 times in the redzone (and surprisingly never looked the TEs way in those scenarios). After that, it gets extremely dicey.... I don't really love anyone else... I guess Juju the most, as he is dirt cheap, Thornton if you really want to HR hit, but he may end up with 0 catches, worthy is just to expensive for me, and I guess Hollywood for the gadgety stuff in the redzone, but again he could end with few targets. Who I want to mention, is Brashard Smith... he had 19 opps (5 targets) last week, and all 5 of his targets came in the first half, and on 1st and 2nd downs, never even 3rd down, and one of those was a RZ attempt within the 5 yard line --- they like this kid, and I will follow the breadcrumbs while they try t oget him his first TD. I am not giving up on Pacheco, and my year long fantasy benches don't want to either, but even in a close game, Mahomes has typically done quick split second passes in the redzone, or hunt has been plunging in, and he rarely eclipses 12 total opportunities --- and with hunt in, and Smith taking up more of a role, how can we trust it?!?
WAS@KCC
Commanders have a good RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Chiefs have a good P/RB matchup.
Mariota? has a bad pressure rate situation. Croskey has a good rush potential.
Mahomes has a meh pressure rate situation, but a great pass potential.
Pace of play is 5th.
- It is hard to gauge metrics for WAS, as Mariota is starting, and in 1 of his 2 starts this year, McLaurin was not in, and in the other, they had a 3+ possession win vs Raiders. I will say, I expect the passing volume to be a touch higher than his norm with who the opponent is, and I expect WAS to be aggressive not only because of that, but the Kicker is dealing with a back issue. I kind of like him as a sneaky capt. option because of his rushing upside as well, and nobody will be doing it. I don't love Ertz, but his aDOT with Mariota this year is almost 10, but in 2 full games (1 without Mclaurin too) he only has a 17% target share... he is cheap enough to consider, but I won't be going overboard. I think Lane/Moore/McCaffrey can be avoided, if you need a cheap 1-off maybe we can find one on the otherside, we just don't know how the WR3 position will shake out, if I had to pick though I'd go Moore>Lane>McCaffrey. I will have shares of both Deebo and McLaurin, but I lean Deebo for full PPR sites, McLaurin on half. If anyone thinks WAS keeps this game close, or even play with a lead, I think you play Croskey as your captain, otherwise avoid him entirely... as he gets scripted out, and offers low PPR value, but again, he actually has very good RB metrics (YAC/pa, ERR, etc.), so I can see a path to 100+ 2+ like 3 weeks ago.
We had all healthy participants last week, and it went so well the starters didn't even play an entire game. In that game Rice still managed a 29.5% target share (despite a terrible 0.8 aDOT.....), I do like him a lot on PPR sites, a little bit less on half ppr, but it is worth noting that Mahomes looked his way 4 times in the redzone (and surprisingly never looked the TEs way in those scenarios). After that, it gets extremely dicey.... I don't really love anyone else... I guess Juju the most, as he is dirt cheap, Thornton if you really want to HR hit, but he may end up with 0 catches, worthy is just to expensive for me, and I guess Hollywood for the gadgety stuff in the redzone, but again he could end with few targets. Who I want to mention, is Brashard Smith... he had 19 opps (5 targets) last week, and all 5 of his targets came in the first half, and on 1st and 2nd downs, never even 3rd down, and one of those was a RZ attempt within the 5 yard line --- they like this kid, and I will follow the breadcrumbs while they try t oget him his first TD. I am not giving up on Pacheco, and my year long fantasy benches don't want to either, but even in a close game, Mahomes has typically done quick split second passes in the redzone, or hunt has been plunging in, and he rarely eclipses 12 total opportunities --- and with hunt in, and Smith taking up more of a role, how can we trust it?!?
Last edited:
Thx
ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
1 PMs
D. Smith Receptions O5.5 -145 (he should get 10+)
D. Slayton Rec Yds O38.5 -110
R. Dowdle Rush Yds O50.5 -115 (even in a timeshare, he should get 15~ carries, need a touch better than 3 ypc, yes please)
K. Coleman Rec Yds O41.5 -109
A. Smith Receptions O1.5 -168 (hate the juice, but he will be out there for 90%+ of plays...)
C. Brown Rush&Rec Yds O72.5 -114
J. Jeudy Receptions O3.5 -138
R. Stevenson Rush Attempts O13.5 -135
T. Allgeier Rush Attempts O9.5 -113 (you knew this was coming)
D. Achane Receptions O4.5 -112
J. Jennings Rec Yds O38.5 -111 (stay healthy please --- CMC O5.5 receptions may be the better play)
J. Higgins Rec Yds O33.5 -112
4 PMs
C. Olave Receptions O5.5 -128 (I like Kamara O3.5 too)
T. Johnson Rec Yds O42.5 -110
Jav. Williams Rush Yds O64.5 -110
T. Franklin Rec Yds O35.5 -110 (like this a lot)
E. Ayomanor Rec Yds O36.5 -110
J. Taylor Rush Yds O100.5 -111
D. Smith Receptions O5.5 -145 (he should get 10+)
D. Slayton Rec Yds O38.5 -110
R. Dowdle Rush Yds O50.5 -115 (even in a timeshare, he should get 15~ carries, need a touch better than 3 ypc, yes please)
K. Coleman Rec Yds O41.5 -109
A. Smith Receptions O1.5 -168 (hate the juice, but he will be out there for 90%+ of plays...)
C. Brown Rush&Rec Yds O72.5 -114
J. Jeudy Receptions O3.5 -138
R. Stevenson Rush Attempts O13.5 -135
T. Allgeier Rush Attempts O9.5 -113 (you knew this was coming)
D. Achane Receptions O4.5 -112
J. Jennings Rec Yds O38.5 -111 (stay healthy please --- CMC O5.5 receptions may be the better play)
J. Higgins Rec Yds O33.5 -112
4 PMs
C. Olave Receptions O5.5 -128 (I like Kamara O3.5 too)
T. Johnson Rec Yds O42.5 -110
Jav. Williams Rush Yds O64.5 -110
T. Franklin Rec Yds O35.5 -110 (like this a lot)
E. Ayomanor Rec Yds O36.5 -110
J. Taylor Rush Yds O100.5 -111
Lexington 125
I cap it all, and I cap it well.
GL today!
I’m on
Bijan rush yds o91.5
Odunze rec yds o56.5
Chase brown td
I’m on
Bijan rush yds o91.5
Odunze rec yds o56.5
Chase brown td
ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
Like all these too, glad to you as well!
rambler882
2024 CTG Supporting Donation Member
Darnell Mooney o55.5, 3u -112
Caleb Williams o214.5, 3u -112
Saquon Barkley TD, 2u -141
Saquon Barkley o86.5, 2u -112
Harold Fannin Jr. o3.5, 2u -126
Derrick Henry o86.5, 2u -112
De'Von Achane rec o31.5, 2u -112
Jordan Love o240.5, 2u -112
Courtland Sutton o62.5, 2u -112
James Cook TD, 1u -150
DeVonta Smith o5.5, 1u -142
Breece Hall rush + rec 92.5, 1u -114
Breece Hall o66.5, 1u -112
Rome Odunze o55.5, 1u -112
Tee Higgins o54.5, 1u -112
Eric Ayomanor o36.5, 1u -112
Jaylen Warren u56.5, 1u -112
Darius Slayton o37.5, 1u -112
Caleb Williams o214.5, 3u -112
Saquon Barkley TD, 2u -141
Saquon Barkley o86.5, 2u -112
Harold Fannin Jr. o3.5, 2u -126
Derrick Henry o86.5, 2u -112
De'Von Achane rec o31.5, 2u -112
Jordan Love o240.5, 2u -112
Courtland Sutton o62.5, 2u -112
James Cook TD, 1u -150
DeVonta Smith o5.5, 1u -142
Breece Hall rush + rec 92.5, 1u -114
Breece Hall o66.5, 1u -112
Rome Odunze o55.5, 1u -112
Tee Higgins o54.5, 1u -112
Eric Ayomanor o36.5, 1u -112
Jaylen Warren u56.5, 1u -112
Darius Slayton o37.5, 1u -112
ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
12-6 yesterday
13-7 for the week.
Monday night DFS thoughts updated above.
B. Smith Receptions O1.5 -185 (I like it a lot --- sites like DK allow you to slide the range/go higher too, and I may have sprinkled some on 4+ +345 too)
May add a Mariota or Croskey prop, but holding off for now.
13-7 for the week.
Monday night DFS thoughts updated above.
B. Smith Receptions O1.5 -185 (I like it a lot --- sites like DK allow you to slide the range/go higher too, and I may have sprinkled some on 4+ +345 too)
May add a Mariota or Croskey prop, but holding off for now.
ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
this looks like a great day
ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
Im live adding
McNichols receptions 5+ +115 (sprinkled some 6+ +475)
Really should have done this immediately, have some of him in dfs too
Washington is 4 down territory if passed the half, while struggling to both throw it deep and running it, him being the 3rd down back gives him many more snaps because of 4th downs too
McNichols receptions 5+ +115 (sprinkled some 6+ +475)
Really should have done this immediately, have some of him in dfs too
Washington is 4 down territory if passed the half, while struggling to both throw it deep and running it, him being the 3rd down back gives him many more snaps because of 4th downs too
Great idea