3-1 +2.2 Yesterday.
Getting the templates down for now, hopefully updated before noon tomorrow.
1 PMs/Main Slate
ATL/CIN
Falcons have a meh RB matchup, and bad P matchup.
Bengals have a great RB matchup, and good P matchup.
Allgeier has a good ALY push.
Mixon has a good ALY push.
Falcons TTR is 16th.
Bengals TTR is 3rd.
Pace of play is 8th overall, 7th in MS. OURank is 5th in MS.
- Injuries - ATL - On D, no CB Alford, or CB Hayward.
- CIN - On D, no DT Tupou, or LB Wilson, but should be getting back LB Bachie.
- Allgeier is seeing almost 60% of snaps, but him and Huntley are almost equal in carries. The problem is they are almost TD dogs, and they receive practically 0 targets (in games where they saw both positive and negative scripts)... I can't trust that kind of floor, and there's no path to a high ceiling minus a unlikely script. Pass. Zacchaeus is starting to play as much, if not more, snaps as london, and their aDOT/r's the past 2 weeks have been virtually the same (london having just 3 more targets).... I do think this is a script that favors a pass catcher to do well, but I think I'd limit it to just a bring back game stack as opposed to one-offs in other lineups. Pitts missed the game 2 weeks ago where they were in passing situations, but thankfully last week on just 3 targets he finally scored... I think he can be considered as a bring back too if you dont want to go zaccheaus/london, but we have Andrews/Kelce on this slate and they are just head and shoulders above the rest.
Alright so we have Mixon with a good ALY push, great DVOA matchup, 3rd best TTR, and a projected positive script. He plays roughly 73%~ of snaps, and gets 23~ opportunities a game (5 of which are targets), he's definitely a player to be considered that offers a high floor/ceiling combo. I'm not going to go all in here, but I think its a good bet. What I do also like is Atlanta being down 2 CBs (Ie. Saints last week), and getting a shot at the home run hitters here. Chase/Higgins/Boyd all play considerable snaps, it was good to see higgins get 9 targets last week despite injury concerns, I still think boyd is bottom of the barrell, as he's seen just 2 RZ targets all year, where chase is averaging atleast 2/game. Higgins can be considered as a pivot off of chase.
DET/DAL
Lions have a good RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Cowboys have a great P/RB matchup.
Swift? has a good ALY push.
Dak has a great ASR matchup, Zeke has a great ALY push.
Lions TTR is 15th.
Cowboys TTR is T-1st.
Pace of play is 2nd overall/MS. OURank is 2nd in MS.
- Injuries - DET - On D, S Price is out, LB Harris out for 2nd week. On O, WR Chark is out, on OL 6th man Nelson is out. Swift/Reynolds are Q.
- DAL - Overall healthy, and getting pieces back from IR on D.
- I obviously don't like the lions matchup a ton, but the pace and O/U are great, and they are almost TD dogs, someone will get production. Is Swift/St. Brown ready to be full go? I have interest in Swift if I can guarantee he gets his normal playing time but idk if that'll happen and if splitting time, I don't want to be a part of that backfield this week. Same can be said for St.brown, but I kind of like a pivot to Reynolds here, he may be the 3rd or 4th man in the pecking order for this offense, but he sees a comfortable amount of targets, has a great aDOT/r of 11, there's no chark, and in the 2 games w/o chark, he's averaged 88%~ of snaps, and has 9 RZ targets in 5 games. Hock is another consideration, he has a good target share on this team, rz targets, and a decent TE aDOT/r of 6.6, but I'd save him for game stacks, and not really one-offs.
Dallas seems committed to Zeke, as he sees a 60-65% to Pollards 35-45% of snaps. He sees about 17 opportunities to Pollards 12. If those numbers were higher for either one, I'd consider locking it in in all lineups, unfortunately it's not. Having said that, they have the #1 TTR, and great matchups/pace all around/7pt faves.... We have to consider a back from here, I'd primarily go Zeke, but Pollard can easily be the RB1 on this team every so often. Do we finally have a fully healthy Schultz, back with a fully healthy Dak? If so, this would be my sneaky low owned TE option in tourneys in a game where he could be a dud, or a stud. Since Gallups return, Brown and him have been battling for deep threat, as both have decent aDOT/rs, if you want to take a shot on one to hit one, you could, not sure how I want to play it yet. Lamb however has had a massive 32.9% target share in those 3 weeks, and sits at 33.3% on the year (#1 overall), and has played no lower than 93% of snaps in every game. He can be an option if you don't want to go Zeke/Pollard + D, or as a Dak Stack.
IND/TEN
Colts have a great P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Titans have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Ryan has a meh ASR matchup. Taylor? has a bad ALY matchup.
Tanny has a meh ASR matchup. Henry has a bad ALY matchup.
Colts TTR is T-18th.
Titans TTR is 14th.
Pace of play is 13th overall, 10th in MS. OURank is 9th in MS.
- Injuries - IND - On D, LB Leonard is still out, DE Paye is out for 2nd week.
- TEN - On D, LB Cunningham out for 3rd week, LB Adeniyi out for 4th week. On OL, G Davis out for 3rd week.
- Taylor was not preforming prior to his injury, and I have concerns on it post his injury in this matchup. Colts are quietly the 3rd most pass heavy team in the NFL. He has a bad ALY matchup/DVOA matchup, the pace and OURank are one of the worst. How can we come to playing him? I can't. The Colts use all their TE's when all are active, I can't trust it, but if you want to absolutely punt at that position, you do get a chance at a TD, and some yards here, but for me, pass. I said last week that I liked Pierce but not to forget about the others. There's enough to go around, and Campbell saw 100% of snaps last week, Pittman is also an every down player, and Pierce has seen his snaps rise every week (65% last week), Pittman/Campbell/Pierce can all be one-offed, I think Campbell goes lowest owned and would be my sneaky pivot, but I can make an argument for all of them.
Henry sees about 2/3rds of snaps and gets almost 24 opportunities a game, they are the opposite of the Colts by being the 5th must run heavy team in the NFL. While matchups/game stats aren't favorable, minus being slight faves, I think he has enough TD equity, and low ownership to be considered. We have had 1 game without Burks, and woods saw a 35% target share. If you go Ryan+Pass Catcher(S), he can be a bring back option. It is worth nothing that Ikhine saw 91% of snaps in that game (more than woods), and was the deep ball threat. Same as colts at TE, Swaim is the leader, but they played 4 in their last game, and anyone can vulture a TD, not enough opportunity to look here.
GBP/WAS
Packers have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Commanders have a great RB matchup, and meh P matchup.
Rodgers has a meh ASR matchup.
Heinicke has a bad ASR matchup. Robinson has a good ALY push.
Packers TTR is T-11th.
Commanders TTR is 21st.
Pace of play is 14th overall, 11th/last in MS. OURank is 10th.
- Injuries - GBP - On O, no Cobb/Watson, Watkins may be back.
- WAS - On D, CB Jackson out for 2nd week. On O, no TE Thomas, Bates is Q. No WR Brown, Dotson is Q but more doubtful imo.
- Both of these backs are in like a 60-50 split, and both have 15.5 opportunities/g average. I don't love either of them in a slow ass pace, and terrible OURank, do I think one could pop off? Yes, but not only do you need it to happen, but you need to guess which one too.... I also think the Commanders quietly play with a lead too. It's the Lazard/Doubs show until further notice, but let's see if Watkins comes back or not and disrupts anything. I said it for a couple weeks now, while Doubs is seeing a target share similar to lazard, there's a BIG gap in aDOT/r that can't be ignored, Doubs is an extremely shallow depth guy, and lazard gets 10+ aDOT/r... its lazard for me. It's worth noting that Tonyan saw his largest snap share by a lot, at 63%, just his 2nd time all season he was above 44%, it lead to 12 targets, and a good TE aDOT/r of 6.6. If that continues, he can be a riser.
Heinicke is back, last year McLaurin had a 25% snap count, and over a 10 aDOT/r, he could be one-offed in tourneys as we know he has homerun upside, but don't go overboard. Robinson led the backfield but saw just 47% of snaps with 0 targets and apparently the coach said he needed to utilize Gibson more in the first half... I don't know what to make of it, I personally think Robinson goes up in snap %, especially with a script that I think they lead, but idk if I can trust him this week despite a good ALY push too. Regretfully I'll probably pass here. If Bates is out again with Thomas, Cole Turner saw 97% of snaps... he only had 2 targets, but realistically, vegas thinks they play from behind, and that kind of field presence means production is possible... and I'm assuming he's bare minimum.
TBB/CAR
Buccaneers have a great P matchup, and good RB matchup.
Panthers have a bad P/RB matchup.
Brady has the best ASR matchup. Fournette has a meh ALY push.
Walker? has a bad ASR matchup (worst in MS).
Bucs TTR is T-5th.
Panthers TTR is 22nd/last.
Pace of play is 1st. OURank is 11th/last in MS.
- Injuries - TBB - On D, no CB Bunting for 2nd week, no S Ryan for 3rd week. On O, no Julio or Brate.
- CAR - On D, no S Chinn for 4th week, DE Ioannidis is Doubtful. On OL G Eiflein is doubtful. Ton of Q's. On O, no Baker/DArnold,
- What do we do with Tampa, despite having 2 possession leads at some point in half of their games, they are still #1 in pass play %, I say this because they are obviously big road faves in a matchup they should smack. So do we go Fournette + D and call it a day? You could, but weeks 4&5, when they were being blown out, and blew a team out, he saw his lowest snap share... having said that, he still scored and put up good numbers. The game also has a great pace, and tampa should see a lot of scoring opportunities. OR we could go Brady with a pass catcher or two. Godwin saw his snap count back up!, to 89% last week, and had 12 targets to go with it... him and Evans are obviously the top dogs, but gage shouldn't go unnoticed, he only had 4 targets last week, but all were in the RZ, he's definitely bottom of the totem pole though. The more I keep reviewing games the more I keep finding more about TEs.... with no Brate, we may expect Otton to go back up to 95%~ of snaps, which is huge, and in his last opportunity, 2 weeks ago, he saw 7 targets, 2 in the RZ, and finished with a 6-43 statline, that's really good for a bare minimum player, and with a TD, he's practically optimal.
Wtf do we do with Carolina.... with no Anderson, Marshall/Smith see volume go up, and definitely have a higher production opportunity over their salary, Moore sees an uptick too, but his aDOT/r has been atrocious last week with Walker. Is Chubba the PPR back? because that's what they'll need this week. One of these players could be in an optimal ppr lineup with a TD too, but they need to score first.
NYG/JAC
Giants have a meh P/RB matchup.
Jaguars have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
D. Jones has a meh ASR matchup, Barkley has a meh ALY push.
Lawrence has a great ASR matchup.
Giants TTR is 17th.
Jags TTR is T-11th.
Pace of play is 3rd overall/MS. OURank is 8th in MS.
- Injuries - NYG - On D, CB Flott out for 4th week. LB Ojulari out for 3rd week, LB Ximines is out, S Jefferson is out for 2nd week, DT Davidson out for 3rd week, CB Robinson out for 3rd week, again. On O, no Shep/Toney/Golladay.
- JAC - On D, no CB Griffin, some Q's. On O, OL Bartch out for 2nd week (and for year). M. Jones is Q.
- This game does surprising have a great pace, and it is projected to be close. Barkley can always be considered, despite playing from behind in most games, the giants are 4th in run play %, and barkley plays a ton, and already sees 24~ opportunities a game, I'm not sure if I'll be able to fit him in, and overall, i'd rather pass, but won't fault anyone from going here. Personally, I think the giants play from behind again, but even if they finally abandon the run game, he can catch balls. None of the giants "big 3" at WR are in again, for the 3rd straight week. We did see Robinson play his first game since week 1, and here's how the snap count of 5 Giant receivers went. Slayton/Johnson/Sills/James/Robinson, 69/62/35/34/23%. they had 15 targets combined, nobody had less than 2, nobody had more than 4.... that's gross. If I had to dig deeper, I liked that Slayton had the highest snap %, as well as the best aDOT/r of the group, with a RZ target too, I also think Robinson will see more playing time coming back from injury, and he also saw 4 targets (T-most) despite playing the least, AND had a RZ target too... I'd decide between 1 of them. Bellinger had 5 targets (2 RZ), and played 94% of snaps, that's a solid punt option too.
I really want to play one of these backs in Jacksonville but I don't know if I can, none have seen over 15 opportunities since week 3, when Robinson was still a lead back, last week neither even hit 50% of snaps.... ugh, idk. I still want to believe in Kirk, but for him to succeed, it needs to be a competitive game, or Giants lead. I think it could happen, and I'd like it more if Marvin Jones sits again but he is a 90%+ snap guy regardless.....Engram has been ok, he saw 6 targets last week, and saw his season high snaps at 78%, he's trending the right way.
CLV/BAL
Browns have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Ravens have a great P/RB matchup.
Brissett has a great ASR matchup. Chubb has a great ALY push.
Lamar has a good ASR matchup. Drake? has a great ALY push.
Browns TTR is T-18th.
Ravens TTR is T-5th.
Pace of play is 11th overall, 9th in MS. OURank is T-6th in MS.
- Injuries - CLV - On D, CB Ward out for 2nd week, LB Walker out for 4th week. Clowney may be coming back, as well as Deion Jones. On OL, G Teller is out.
- BAL - On D, S Williams out for 2nd week. On O, no Dobbins/Edwards, Bateman/Andrews are Q.
- Despite the pace being slow, there's great matchups everywhere. Chubb sees 20+ opportunities a game despite being a 55% snap guy, and he's averaging a massive 5.9 YPC (notables penny/herbert/swift were averaging more on far fewer carries). He can be considered whenever. I think Cooper OR DPJ can be considered, they own 46%+ of the target share. Cooper sees more targets, but has a smaller aDOT/r, but still decent, at 8.7, DPJ is at 11.4. I don't really hate Njoku either, his floor has been 80% of snaps, and 6 targets, he has a decent TE aDOT/r of 6.5, and is just over 1 RZ target/g, I like other TEs more, but you could do worse.
Lets talk Andrews first, the guy is a fucking stud. He sees 33.3% of target share, that's 1 in every 3 passes lamar throws, its #2 across the whole league, and is 9.1% higher than the 2nd best TE. That's a huge gap to make up at that position if he hits his projection, and you can argue it's not worth trying to catch that gap elsewhere. He sees almost 2 RZ Targets/g, and also has an aDOT/r of 8.4.... which is really only behind notables in Pitts and Juwan Johnson, but he's also had triple there receptions. So you're getting a guy that gets the most target share at the position, the deepest throws at the position, and has td equity.... uh yes. If Bateman is back, it'll hurt duvernay/robinson... he's a homerun hitter that was seeing 5.5 targets a game at a good aDOT/r of 11.3, he can be stacked with lamar and/or andrews if you want, but wouldn't go overboard.
4PMs Slate/Main Slate Cont.
NYJ/DEN
Jets have a good RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Broncos have a meh P/RB matchup.
Z. Wilson has a meh ASR matchup.
R. Wilson has a bad ASR matchup, Murray? has a meh ALY matchup.
Jets TTR is 9th.
Broncos TTR is 8th.
Pace of play is 5th overall/MS, OURank is 4th.
- Injuries - NYJ - On D, DE Johnson out for 3rd week. On OL Fant and Mitchell are both still out. WR Moore is out.
- DEN - On D, S Sterns is doubtful, CD Darby out for 2nd week, LB Gregory out for 3rd week. couple Qs. On O, No Wilson.
- The stats above obviously are a bit different now with the news drop, but the spread moved what 2.5 points? (and across 0....) yet the total dropped by 11+.... weird. Edit --- Im seeing now the OU was around 42.5, I may have had a typo in that OURank/TTR's.... either way, its now the worst OU, and the TT's are both 2 of the bottom 4. Not sure what to do here, in the 3 games since hall was effectively been the starter, he's seen roughly 66% of snaps, and has had almost 22 opportunities per game, with a 5.1 YPC, that's all solid. He does run into a tough defense though, and jets are projected maybe 2 tds? Idk if I want to stomach it, but they are in the top 10 (3rd in MS) in ASR, and that can correlate with a RB+DEF lineup. Jets have been running more two TE sets past couple weeks, and maybe its way Hall has been more successful, but they're less utilized in the passing game. Pass. Moore was #2 in snap count on this team, and had a 13.2% target share that is now vacant. Davis plays almost 90% of snaps, and sees deep balls, I don't like him in the matchup, and if they do play with a lead, he may see less than 4 targets. Wilson leads the team in targets, he should see the bigger/imporant rise in snap share, and already had a decent aDOT/r of 7.8, to go along with the most RZ targets, if you want to play someone as a one-off who probably gets more volume than his price, it would be wilson for me.
Murray on 47% of snaps had 16 opportunities.... there's a chance both of those numbers go up, and there's a scenario where denver D creates opportunity for him, and he would be a super low owned option. Not saying to slam him into lineups, but I think you can get creative there. Does this offense get considerably worse with the way Russ has played? I'm not sure haha, and it still has 2 solid 90-100% snap count WRs in Jeudy/Sutton that can also do well/be under owned given the situation but lets limit some expectations. Its worth noting that out of nowhere Dulchich saw 71% of snaps, something to note going forward.
HOU/LVR
Texans have a great P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Raiders have a great RB matchup, and meh P matchup.
Mills has a good ASR matchup. Pierce has a meh ALY matchup.
Carr has a good ASR matchup. Jacobs has the best ALY matchup.
Texans TTR is 20th.
Raiders TTR is 4th.
Pace of play is 6th overall/MS. OURank is T-6th in MS.
- Injuries - HOU - On D, DE Greenard is out for 2nd week, DT Dwumfour out for 3rd week. On O, TE Jordan is Q.
- LVR - On D, CB Hobbs is out. On O, no Waller, Hollins/Renfrow are Q.
- Houston is 7 point road dogs, and have a great P dvoa matchup, in a spot where he should have time in the pocket... I like me a cooks or collins here. Collins after the first 4 weeks has seen his snaps rise from 66% to 80%, and rival Cooks, in those 2 weeks, they both have seen 25% target share each.... Collins has the much better aDOT/r (13.9) though and comes at a cheaper price. Howard has also seen his snaps rise week to week, but he has 10 total targets on the season, pass. Pierce has seen his snaps gradually rise as well, and got up to 79% last game, if that continues, he's a top 10 RB in general, he's already averaging 20 opportunities/g, but that number is closer to 24+ after week 2. He's a solid option, but I'll probably one-off collins (or cooks) here.
Lets start with the obvious, Josh Jacobs is in a smash spot. Last 2 weeks he's averaged 85~ snap count, and has seen 22 opportunities a game which has trended upward since start of season. Take him and pivot else where. With no Waller, Moreau comes in and is a fine punt option, in his 2 games, where waller also had playing time, he has averaged 4 targets, I wouldn't be shocked to see 8+ with some td equity. Adams is an everydown player, he already has a massive 31.4% target share, it equates to 10+ targets/g, and a good aDOT/r of 9.5 he's also in a good spot, and the offense may be with hollins (possibly renfrow), and definitely waller.... we don't expect those numbers to get worse,
SEA/LAC
Seahawks have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Chargers have a great P matchup, and good RB matchup.
Geno has a bad ASR matchup. Walker has a meh ALY matchup.
Herbert has a great ASR matchup.
Seahawks TTR is 13th.
Chargers TTR is T-1st.
Pace of play is 4th overall/MS. OURank is 1st in MS.
- Injuries - SEA - On O, Lockett is Q, important to watch.
- LAC - On O, Palmer/Parham/Guyton are all out, Allen is Q, important to watch.
- Walker saw 69% of snaps last week in his first official start, he's averaging a great 5.5 YPC, but 3.5 YPC came before contact, and he goes from one of the best ALY matchups, to one of the worst (it's not terrible, but not ideal).... he also has a negative game script projection... I think I'll let others chase, but there are scenarios he succeeds. Seattle started 3 TEs last week, 2 had over 65% of snaps, and fant had 7 targets, and possibly no Lockett... it's not a bad play, but I'll probably not have much exposure. If lockett is out, goodwin will see more time, but Metcalf becomes an even better bring back option (or one-off), he has practically the same stats as lockett, solid target share/aDOT/r, but has RZ targets to go with it, he's a good play.
If Allen sits, Chargers will have Williams as a huge play, but Carter/Bandy become super cheap options with great upside., either way, we want a piece from this offense, they have the highest TTR, in a game with good pace, and of course, highest O/U, and herbert has one of the better ASR matchups. I don't hate everett, but there's much better options to pay down or up on, and he's seen his snaps dwindle week to week. Ekeler has seen the most snap % of the year last week at 66%, the last 3 weeks he's been the RB1, has 6 TDs, sees 21~ opportunities a game (that's trended upwards), and his averaginga massive 8+ targets/g... he has a huge floor/ceiling combo, and I'm considering him close to a must play.
KCC/SFO
Chiefs have a bad P/RB matchup.
49ers have a great P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Helaire has the worst ALY push of the MS.
Chiefs TTR is 7th.
49ers TTR is 10th.
Pace of play is 10th overall, 8th in MS. OURank is T-2nd.
- Injuries - KCC - On D, DT Wharton out for 3rd week, CB Fenton out for 2nd week.
- SFO - On D, S Armstead out for 3rd week, CB Moseley out for 2nd week, DT Kinlaw out for 4th week, LB Shaair out for 4th week, CB Ward/S Hufanga are Q.
- Kelce is a fine option, he's obviously top tier, but Andrews is a touch cheaper, and I think he has better floor/upside combo. So passing... This backfield is a rotation I don't want to rely on for DFS either, 1 can go 2+ scores, but it's limited opportunities and way to much risk. So pass. At WR, we liked what we saw out of JuJu last week, but MVS is just 1 other game removed from an 8 target game, they both play 80%+ of the snaps, and he has the better aDOT/r of the two.... I want a piece of the offense, and I think I'd start here.
What the heck do we do with SF, we obviously cross Wilson off our list, I think we have to cross CMC off the list, he's so expensive, and should be playing just a limited role, how can we trust that, and why would we want to crush our salary with a player like that, so pass. I've been saying Aiyuk has been the deeper aDOT/r guy over samuel, and has been beating him in snap% too, and he finally paid off for us!... I still like him this week, but will not be overboard. If you want to pivot off of Andrews, I think I'd rather go to Kittle than Kelce.... he played 98% of snaps last week, and saw 10 targets, and we have another game where the 49ers can actually be playing from behind, if that's the case, 10+ FPs is his floor, and with a TD, he absolutely goes above 20+.
