Sunday 1PMs/Main Slate
WAS/ATL
Commanders have a great P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Falcons have a great P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Howell has a meh pressure rate situation. Br. Robinson has a meh run potential.
Ridder has a bad pressure rate situation.
Commanders TTR is 18th.
Falcons TTR is 8th.
Pace of play is 9th, O/U Rank is T-7th (meh).
- Injuries - WAS - On D, S Forrest (99%) is out.
- ATL - On T, T McGary (88%) is Q.
16.3, 7, 22.4, 15.9, 22.7, those are the combined ppr FPs of TE's each week vs this ATL defense, 17~/g given up. In his 3 full games, Thomas has averaged 80% of snaps, 7.33 targets, with an ok aDOT of 6.73, DK only has him priced at 3.5K, he definitely needs to be in your player pool. I think there is a path to maybe do a game stack in this game, howell + receivers can be viable if they are in a negative script, as we've seen already, they aren't afraid to continually throw when playing from behind, they've done it a lot this season already, and because of it, are #2 in pass/run ratio. But if you think it is semi competitive, or they play with a lead, I'd avoid at all costs. There isn't much of a price difference between McLaurin/Dotson, but Mclaurin as a superior aDOT (11.16 to 7.57), and target share (26.29% to 17.25%), can't play Dotson... and if you look the other way, Samuel is cheaper, and almost mirrors his stats (7.11 to 7.57, and 14.59% to 17.25%), and that doesn't consider the couple of rush attempts he gets per game. McLaurin>Samuel>>>>>>>> Dotson. I'd only consider Robinson if you think WAS plays with a decent lead... while he was targeted in the blowout last week, he played under 40% of snaps, and got to just 10 opps... pass.
Look I like Joonu Smith, I recommended him heavily in the showdown slate in London, but there is no way I can click him being just $100 cheaper than Pitts. He has had atleast 6 targets in 4 straight, and his 18~% target share/6.24 aDOT look fine on the surface, but then you look at Pitts. He has a 21% target share, and a great TE aDOT of 11.72. He is the same price as Thomas, and technically has a lower volume floor, but he has as much upside as anyone else, and in tournaments, you definitely look for that. Kind of like Washington, I think you can only take these WRs in a game stack, if you think they'll have a positive script. London is kind of cheap for a 20% target guy/10.2 aDOT, but when that share is on a team in the bottom quarter in pass/run ratio, it doesn't look as appealing. Now I was ready to tout up Mack Hollins as the sneakier stack (again), as he is almost floor priced. But a couple things. ATL has brought in V. Jefferson from Rams (unsure about how big of a role he will be getting but could eat into him), and Hollins somehow had just a 39% snap count last week, and finished with 2 targets in a neutral/competitive game. His 14.47 aDOT/price are both nice, but again, strictly for mass entering, and if you think it will be a positive passing script. Bijan has had 3 games now with just 16 opps, while this as a floor is nice, you are paying top dollar for him. I want to say his 2 targets last week (both coming later in the 2nd half somehow) was an anomaly, but there is some risk. I think if you believe ATL wins/plays with a lead, it may be best to keep him out of rosters (fine with an allgeier if mass entering), but otherwise, he should still be a fine play.
MIN/CHI
Vikings have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Bears have a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Cousins has a good pressure rate situation, and a great pass potential.
Fields has a meh pressure rate situation.
Vikes TTR is 6th (good)
Bears TTR is 13th.
Pace of play is 1st (great), O/U Rank is 5th.
- Injuries - MIN - On D, CB Evans (94%~) is Q. On O, WR JJ is out, WR Addison is Q.
- CHI - On D, S Jackson/CB Gordon may both be returning. On O, G Patrick is Q. RB Herbert is D, RBs Homer/Johnson are Q. WR St. Brown is Q, TE Kmet is Q.
The pace is the best, the total is near the top, and we have injuries that are allowing for cheap value options. The argument here is tournament leverage/concentration, but lets get into some numbers. My initial lean is to be much underweight the field in terms of pass catchers/qbs. Cousins is priced as the QB4 on the slate, he just lost the best WR in the game, and has no rushing upside... how can we stomach that? Yes minny is #1 in pass/run ratio at 70%, but know that in 3 of there 4 losses, they were behind either big early, or atleast at somepoint by 2 possesions. In the one game in which they actually led/won, they were at 47% pass/run ratio, which would be good for 31st in the league, he only had 19 pass attempts that week. I'm saying these things to know that there is a real chance you can gain big leverage by fading this offense a bit in tournaments. Addison at 5.7K seems fine even for one-offs, despite JJ playing 3 quarters~, Addison finished with a 20% target share, and a good aDOT of 11.56, and you'd think some of JJs 13% from that game could be dispersed to him. Powell came in for the last quarter+~, and had a 13% target share, 11 aDOT,, and he is min priced... now, against KC they were down 2 plus possessions, IF you think CHI can play with a lead/big lead, he has to be a play, otherwise, scratch him. Osborn doesn't have the aDOT of addison, but targets wise they are practically equals, and he will probably be a 100% snap guy, we've seen him have spike weeks last year, and if he going to be much lower owned than Addison, I have no problem going heavier here as leverage. I like Hockenson, but he is the #1 priced TE, I can see him being the #1 owned TE, and his aDOT is just ok at 6.62, and his target share 20%.... the plus to him, is 20% of targets on the #1 passing team is huge, and JJ's targets need to get dispersed as well. I don't have issues with him, but I'm leaning towards MIN playing with a lead/close game, making me want to be more underweight. Everyone wants to talk about Mattisons snap shares going down last week, but it is not like Akers went up, at all. I still think it was a product of being down 2 possessions with 17.5 minutes left, and running 31 more plays across 3 drives after.... and it is worth noting, he did come in on both of the 2 drives the vikes got into the RZ... I think I'm going to ride him for another week until his decline becomes a tend, not only will my comments make him already lower owned than he should be, he will be a huge leverage off the popular passing stacks in this game.
Would it shock you that Fields is the QB3/4~ going into this week, after the start to the year he/the bears had... wow.... and he is cheaper than cousins (more reason as why you just can not play kirk). Who ever is actually the starting RB this week, based off health, can be considered, as they are all below 5K, I still don't know if I go here though unless all 3 of Herbie/Roschon/Homer are out. Moore has some great stats, a 24% target share, and a great 13.06 aDOT to go with it, these numbers have only increased week to week, and he has another great matchup. I'm fine if you want to go here. Mooney is the WR2 here, and plays 80%~ of snaps, while his target share is meh in his 4 completed games (14%), his aDOT is just as good as moores (13.13), and he is priced in the 3Ks, I think he is a fine tournament punt/pivot -- keep in mind no claypool, and maybe no st. brown either. Kmet is a mirror image of hockeson in terms of snaps/targets/aDOT, he comes 2K cheaper, but with technically less projected volume most weeks, while I'd rather have moore, and maybe punt TE, I have no issues if you want to go here (or over Hock).
SEA/CIN
Seahawks have a great RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Bengals have a great P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Walker has a great run potential.
Burrow has a meh pass potential, Mixon has a bad run potential.
Seahawks TTR is 12th.
Bengals TTR is 4th (good).
Pace of play is T-7th, O/U Rank is T-3rd.
- Injuries - SEA - On D, LB Brooks (76%), CB Bryant (77%), CB Burns (45%) are all Q. On O, Gs Lewis/Haynes are Q. WR Metcalf is Q.
- CIN - On D, CB Awuzie (73%) is Q. On O, WR Higgins is Q.
Prior to the bye, Walker played a season high 71% of snaps, and finished with 17 opps. My problem is he had 0 targets, and is the 7th priced RB. I think he is always a candidate for 100+ 2+, and he is in a great DVOA/Run matchup so I won't cross him off, but I won't be overweight either. We finally are getting to the point where Metcalf/Lockett prices are separating a bit... this makes me like lockett a little bit more. He leads Metcalf in target share 22 to 19%, but loses in aDOT, 9.63 to 13.09, if you go here, you can make a case for either.. I probably won't have much. SEA still back to 3 TEs, all played between 45 and 58% of snaps, they have low route run %'s, just pass.
With Higgins is out, Boyd practically played in his same role, snap snaps, same etc, and the aDOT was bad. Irwin fit right in where Higgins was, and finished with a 23% target share, and a 10.2 aDOT, he is just above floor price, and can definitely be played without Higgins. With Higgins in, god I want to back him, but he has burned me so many times my bias wants me to just say eff you. Chase may be a lock for me with or without higgins. Without, he had a MASSIVE 43% target share, and an aDOT of 8.11, with him, he had a 29% target share, and a 7.27 aDOT, while the aDOT leaves a lot to be desired, he is a huge ppr upside, and has YAC/HR potential, and already has 9 RZ targets too. In his first game back since week 2, Irv Smith played 61% of snaps (2 other TEs had over 25%), and he drew 0 targets --- without higgins too... PASS. Mixon is so steady, last week he had 29 opps (4 targets), in 3 of 5 games, he has had atleast 4 targets, he only has 1 TD on the season, it wouldn't shock me to see him be optimal, but it wouldn't shcok me if he does nothing really great for you either.... I can be sway either way with him.
SFO/CLV
49ers have a bad P/RB matchup.
Browns have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Watson? has a bad pressure rate situation, and a bad pass potential. Ford has a meh run potential.
49ers TTR is T-10th.
Browns TTR is 22nd (worst/bad)
Pace of play is 15th (worst/bad), O/U Rank is 11th (worst/bad).
- Injuries - SFO - On D, LB Greenlaw (88%) is Q, On O, G Banks is Q, RB Mitchell is Q.
- CLV - On D, DE Garrett (77%) is Q. On O, G Bitonio is out, C Pocic is Q. QB Watson is out, and TE Njoku is Q.
This game has the worst pace, and o/u... it makes you want to skip it altogether. Opposite of MIN/CHI, the argument here is tournament leverage/ownership. Personally, my lean is to come close to a full fade, and play maybe a lineup or 2 around some SFO players. It isn't like these players aren't great, it's just that the matchup looks so rough, if a guy like CMC goes under 5% owned, and he hits one of his great games, you'll separate yourself so well, but with Mitchell possibly back, and the possibility of a lopsided affair, he may not get his full compliment of opps/snaps. Between Aiyuk/Deebo, if you go here, Deebo leads in targets 24.5% to 21%, but Aiyuk has a massive aDOT at 15.67, compared to Deebos 7.42 --- while Aiyuk has slate breaking aDOT, I feel like a tougher defense gives way to more movement/closer LOS targets, so I lean Deebo. Kittle is to expensive for me, even if he crushes, You could go down and have a better matchup/range, or up and same thing, passing.
I know this sounds crazy, but I feel like I don't hate the idea of Ford. He should definitely get the goal line work, since replacing chubb, he is averaging 4.33 targets/g, and actually saw his highest snap count in his last game (despite Hunts 2nd week). He's only 5.2K, if he gets a TD, he will be a low owned & cheap player that could easily have gotten you 20 points. I know there is risk, but I'll take a stab in a couple lineups. Again, I'm not saying to hammer this side, I will have minimal amount if that, but PJ Walker is floor priced at 4K, and if he get can to 200~ yards, and 1 TD, He could atleast 2.5X his salary... maybe the defense sets him up in good field position, and somehow he throws for 2 TDs? Is the path to success possible? Maybe, and this side will be roughly under 1% owned... Panthers last year were a run first team with only DJ moore, and he attempted more than 22 passes once in 5 starts... in that game he was a pretty inaccurate 19 for 36, but finished with 317 yards and 1 TD, and you can argue his weapons are better here (but the matchup is obviously worse), now I wouldn't really one-off these players, but obviously if trying to be cute, I'd pair him with one off Cooper/Moore ---- maybe Njoku.
CAR/MIA
Panthers have a good P/RB matchup.
Dolphins have a great RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Young has the worst pressure rate of the main slate, and a meh pass potential.
Tua has the best pressure rate, and a good pass potential. Mostert has the best run potential.
Panthers TTR is 20th (meh).
Dolphins TTR is 1st (best/great).
Pace of play is T-7th. O/U Rank is T-1st (good).
- Injuries - CAR - On D, still no CB/LB Horn/Thompson for 4~ weeks now, S woods (85%~) is out for 3rd week, S Bell (100%) is now out, DT Brown (88%)/LB Burns (80%) are both Q. On O, RB Sanders is out, TE Thomas is Q (and TEs Ricci/Sullivan are already out). Gs Zavala/Corbett are out.
- MIA - On D, LB Phillips (71%) is Q. On O, RB Achane is out, RB Wilson is D. G/T Williams/Armstead are out.
Man Carolina is ravaged by key injuries this year, especially on D. Either way, it is hard not to like Hubbard, he is just 4.3K (nuts), and is thrusted into a lead role. The last 2 weeks, in tough matchups, he has averaged 51% of snaps, and 13.5 opps (2t/g)... can only imagine those numbers going up here. Thielens prices has finally risen, but I think he is still cheap enough were people go here, His target share is phenomenal, with a meh aDOT of 7.55, I still think he will be the most common bringback with MIA, and I have been fading him practically every week.... I am going to regret this, but I think I'm going to continue it for another week, but you don't have to agree with this take. In Charks 3 full games, he's had an ok target share of 16%, but his aDOT is massive at 15.55, he is only 4K, and has HR potential for tourneys... won't have a lot, but as a one-off/punt option in a lineup or two, I get it, but lets get to Mingo first... he is a touch cheaper than chark, and in his 3 full games, he's played at least 86% of snaps, has a better target share at 20.5%, and an aDOT that still is good at 12.35, I think he is the better one-off/salary relief option for a lineup or two. If I. Thomas is in fact out, I guess Hurst will be put into a bigger role, but his target share is meh at 10%, his aDOT is okay at 6.21, and he isn't that much cheaper than that 3.5K~ range TEs I mentioned earlier, passing.
How do we not play the Moose?!, No Achane, Wilson is doubtful... if he is out, it is at worst a 60-40 split (imo more like 70-30) with Ahmed. They're 2~ td faves, and have an incredibly projected run matchup. Plus Achanes last 2/3~ weeks has kept Mosterts price from really deviating, he has to be in your player pool. Hill as an unreal 30% target share, paired with a 12.22 aDOT, he can hit a homerun at any time, even in weeks 3 and 5s blow outs, where he didn't even get over 53% of snaps, he did more damage than 99% of other WRs, I'll never talk you off. I won't talk you off Waddle, but his price just doesn't match his production this year, and I'm lowest on him with this offense. He could be a good tournament leverage/play, and last week it seemed like they put an effort in getting him involved (10 targets, b2b endzone targets), but without the TD, he finished just 5 for 35. for 7.6K, there's risk. Smythe is cheap, and continues to play a lot, but he only runs a route on 67% of dropbacks (which is meh), and his target share is under 10%, will he eventually have a good week? Sure, but I'm passing for now.
IND/JAC
Colts have a meh P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Jaguars have a good P/RB matchup.
Taylor/Moss have a meh run potential.
Lawrence has a good pressure rate situation, and a good pass potential.
Colts TTR is T-14th.
Jags TTR is 3rd (good).
Pace of play is 3rd (good), O/U Rank is T-3rd.
- Injuries - IND - On D, 2nd week without CB Flowers (99%). On O, no T Smith (100%), C Kelly is Q.
- JAC - On D, LB Lloyd (92%) is Q to come back after missing 2 weeks. On O, no WR Jones, no T Little.
They say Taylor is expected to get more playing time, which is easy, considering he only played 15% of snaps, but he is priced higher than moss, and they may be in a true timeshare... until we see what actually is going on in this backfield, I feel like both are kind of overpriced, so I'll pass. At WR Pittman has been great, on the season he has a 29% target share with a meh 7.7 aDOT, if you really need salary relief, I guess Downs is a dumbed down version of Pittman, as he has a 20% target share, and a 6.82 aDOT, I don't think I go to him but I get it. Who I am interested more in (for what feels like the 99th time already) is Pierce. On the season he has just a 10% target share, but the guy plays close to 100% of snaps, and in Week 3, where Minshew drew his only full game start, he had a 17% target share and a massive 23 aDOT... I'm taking my chances. The Colts are still using 3 TEs without Jelani, Alie-Cox is unplayable, Granson seems to be the one most targetted, but he has seen his snaps consistently drop, while Ogletree as seen them consistently rise, I guess if you want a true punt and hopeful TD, ogletree is the one.
Etienne has been a really good workhorse. In 4 of his 5 weeks, he has at least hit 23 opportunities, and has never had lower than 3 targets (4.2 average/g). He's been almost an 80%+ snap guy, which only 5~ RBs can say the same. I have no issues if you want to go here. Z. Jones has realistically been out for 3 weeks, and now a 4th, in those 3 games Kirk has led with a 24% target share, but an ok aDOT of 8.54, Ridley has just a 16% target share, but a massive 15.82 aDOT.... I think a lot of the target share problem comes because of a small sample size that includes Ridleys 2 target performance where JAC led ATL by 2+ possessions for 3 quarters, taking week 4 out, he had a 20% target share,and maintained is aDOT of 15.47. I think he is an alpha, and capable of being played, Don't mind kirk if you want to go there though. In those 3 weeks Engram has had a good target share of 22%, that is solid for PPR formats like DK, my issue is his pedestrian aDOT of 4.21, and a salary that kind of puts you in a weird spot, I think I'm mostly passing.
NOS/HOU
Saints have a good P/RB matchup.
Texans have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Carr has a good pressure rate situation, but a meh pass potential.
Stroud has a great pressure rate situation. Pierce has the worst run potential.
Saints TTR is T-10th.
Texans TTR is 16th.
Pace of play is 5th (good). O/U Rank is T-7th (meh).
- Injuries - NOS - On O, T Young is out, and G Peat is Q. TE Johnson is out.
- HOU - On D, CB Stingley (98%) is out for 4th week, LB Harris (66%) is Q to return from a 1 week absence. On O, C Green is out, and WRs Woods/Dell are Q.
Kamara is probably to cheap for his production, especially on DK. He is averaging 25 opps, with 8.5 targets/g. I will have a healthy amount of him. Olave has a really good 26.5% target share, with a great 14.07 aDOT, and idk if it's the whole Carr shoulder, or the come back of Kamara, but the last 2 weeks have been pretty bleak for him, and he seems to be priced a little bit too high, it also doesn't help that the saints D just doesn't allow for shootouts. I guess for tournaments, you can make a case that a guy with that aDOT/Target combo going super low owned is great leverage, idk if I can stomach it though. Thomas is also much cheaper, has a good target share of 24% too, and an aDOT of 10.67, so it's not like you can't pivot to him if you really want a part of this passing attack. Again, I probably don't have too much of either if I do. Without Johnson, Moreau came in and played 67% of snaps, but he just wasn't utilized for routes, even Johnson was under 10%~ target share, probably pass, despite being so cheap.
Pierce does have b2b games with over 20 carries, but with just 1.5 targets/g, He isn't expected to have much room, and hasn't touch 60% of snaps yet... he is 5.1K, maybe he gets some short yard TDs... idk if I can do it, but I guess I can see the argument. We don't know the status of 2 of the 3 WRs just yet (woods/dell), lets assume all are in, here are their stats on the year. Collins/Woods/Dell --- 20.69/22.99/16.09, and aDOT of 11.36/9.18/12.89. Imo Collins looks slightly superior to Dell and they are closely priced, and he's injury free. I don't think I'll have either, as I slightly prefer the PPR floor of Woods, and he is also just 3.8K, I'd lean there. I don't hate schultz, but I can't play him at that price with better options... his last 2 weeks, while the most productive, has been his lowest snap count, and he has a run route rate of 61%~, which is meh, they need more blockers than anything, and probably more so tomorrow.
Sunday 4PMs/Main Slate (Cont.)
NEP/LVR
Patriots have a good P/RB matchup.
Raiders have a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
M. Jones has a meh pass potential.
Garop has a good pressure rate situation, but a bad pass potential. Jacobs has a bad run potential.
Pats TTR is 19th (meh).
Raiders TTR is 9th.
Pace of play is 2nd (good), O/U Rank is 9th (meh).
- Injuries - NEP - On D, 2nd week w/o LB Judon (70%)/CB Gonzalez (80%), they have about 6 other players Q, billichek special. On O, T/G Reiff/Strange are out. WRs Douglas/Juju are out, Thornton is Q.
- LVR - On D, CB Hobbs (93%) is out for 3rd week, CB Bennett (83%) is Q to return after a 1 game absence
I'm not sure if Stevenson deserves to be at 5.4K just yet.... I know his snap counts have been dipping, but weeks 4/5 the Pats were blown out from the jump... 4 of his 5 opponents were PHI/NYJ/DAL/NOS, nothing to scoff at. Prior to last week, he had no fewer than 17 opps in a game, with 3 targets being his floor. He runs a route on 52% of dropbacks, which is T-5th best among RBs....I will absolutely be playing him, especially if people move off of him. I think Bourne/Parker both offer us good vlaue plays. They're both cheap, and really the only 2 receiving options on the team. Despite 3 of 5 games at 50% snap count, Bourne has a decent target share at 18%, with a massive 15.27 aDOT, I like him as a dart one-off at the least. In the 4 weeks Parker has played, his target share is a touch worse at 15%, with an aDOT of 10.95, I'd rather Bourne, but if you have conviction with Parker, be my guest. I don't think I can play Henry at his price, as his target share is just under 14%, but he does have a great TE aDOT at 9.64, if you really want to punt the position and TD hunt, Gesicki isn't a terrible option, as his aDOT is just as good at 9,76, while there's obvious risk, I get it in tournaments.
Jacobs already has 4 games with at least 5 targets, he plays almost 80% of snaps, and is typically a lock for 20+ opps, I have no issues if you want to go here, I'll probably be neutral in exposure. Adams has the best target share in the league, at 34%, with a good aDOT of 10.8, while averaging 2.4 rz targets/g... if you can afford him, and prefer him over the top options, I get it. If you want some salary relief, you can comfortably turn to meyers (especially if you are a believer in revenge games), He is just a softer version of Adams... in his 4 games, he has a great target share of 27%~, with a decent aDOT of 9.86, and is averaging 1.75 RZ targets/g, and he comes in considerably cheaper... only 2 WRs to think about here, and both are extremely viable. Pass at TE, they are in a time share, and don't see much work.
DET/TBB
Lions have a good RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Bucs have a bad P/RB matchup.
Montgomery has a good run potential.
Baker has a great pressure rate situation. R. White has a bad run potential.
Lions TTR is 7th (good).
Bucs TTR is 17th.
Pace of play is 11th (meh). O/U Rank is 6th.
- Injuries - DET - On D, S Branch (77%) out for 2nd week, and still out S Gardner-Johnson/CB Moseley. On O, G Jackson (99%) and T Nelson (25%) are out. RB Gibbs is out, and TE laPorta is Q.
- TBB - On D, LB Nelson (39%) is D, LB Barrett (60%) is Q.
Montgomery is priced as the RB2 this week, and rightfully so. Returning from injury in week 4 he has played at least 75% of snaps, averaging an insane 29.5 opps, and without Gibbs last week he was targeted 6 times.... well there is no Gibbs this week, and aside from week 1, Bucs have been kind of gashed on the ground... I have no problems going here, it is a matter of salary/can I fit him. St. Brown is back, and in the 4 weeks he has played, he has a 23% target share, and an aDOT of 8.77, while my redraft leagues are excited, his price for DFS purposes has me concerned, as there are players around him that have higher target share/aDOTs, and are playing in games that don't have one of the worst paces... they're also faves, so the script could get away, I'll be underweight. I'm still unsure about the ancillary pieces in Detriot, because last weeks script was fluky, had no St. Brown, and Jameson Williams returned... the snaps look wonky, and I kind of want to take a wait and see approach with how it'll be dispersed this week. LaPorta has been great, he runs a good amount of routes at 70%, his target share is over 20%, which only a handful or so of TEs can say, and has a decent aDOT for a TE at 7, there is injury concern though, and he is priced as the #2 TE... I'd rather look elsewhere.
I think White is a good buy-low candidate in redrafts AFTER this week, as he has had a brutal schedule that begins to soften quickly. He has played no less than 70% of snaps, hitting over 90% once already, He has a safe PPR floor, 3.33 t's/g, and is good for just under 20 opps, he is cheap enough and probably will be low owned, where if you wanted to take a shot in tournaments, I get it, not sure how much I will though. If you think this game turns into either a shootout, or a pass heavy script for TBB, don't be afraid to fire up Evans. The guy is quietly having a great statistical year, Evans practically missed Week 4, but including the 37% snap count he had in that game, he is still averaging a 26% snap share, with a great aDOT of 13.55, and is carrying no injury designation, totally fine with him. Unfortunately for Godwin, he has a great target share too of 25%, but his aDOT of 8.67 is meh, and he is just $200 cheaper than Evans, the gap needs to be a bit wider before I consider. Otton is cheap, and practically an every down player, he runs a route on 77% of dropbacks, which is good, and has a 12.5% target share, his aDOT is meh at 4.53, but I do think he is a safe play.
ARI/LAR
Cardinals have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
Rams have a great P/RB matchup.
Dobbs has a good pass potential. Demarcado? has a good run potential.
Stafford has the best pass potential of the main slate. K. Williams has a great run potential.
Cards TTR is T-14th.
Rams TTR is 2nd (great).
Pace of play is 6th (good), O/U Rank is T-1st (good).
- Injuries - ARI - On D, S Thompson (100%) is out, LB Woods (70%), DE Ledbetter (64%) are Q. On O, no RB Conner, WR Hollywood is Q.
- LAR - On D, DT Brown (40%) is out, LB Jones (100%) is Q. On O, T Noteboom is Q.
While I think the backfield could be an equal timeshare, I still think Demarcado will be a better play, as the depth chart news will pivot people off of him (or the backfield as a whole).... Hollywood has 28% target share, and a really good aDOT of 12.36, he is low 5K, nobody has that combo and is that cheap, he is absolutely viable, and possibly a good bring back candidate for game stacks. There's no reason There's no reason to play Moore, when Wilson is practically the same price and has almost the same target share but a massive gap in aDOT, 13.72 to 2.88. I say this every week it seems, but Ertz continues to be disrespected. He has a 22.5% target share, with a good TE aDOT of 7.74, he plays 75%+ of snaps, and has an 81% route run rate on dropbacks, he should be MUCH higher.
I'm praying ARI can keep this game close/interesting, as I want to fade Kyren.... I still think he can break a slate with his usage, but he has seen his massive workhouse snap count drop in last 2 weeks, and I just love the passing attack more. Last week Puka AND Kupp had almost a combined 70% target share, and BOTH had aDOTs over 11, idk if I can fit him, as they are priced big, but I may try to get a lineup or two with both of these guys. Tutu seems like the forgotten soul, but he still also had a great aDOT of 12.8, but his target share dropped to 14.71%, for tournaments, I think he is still viable as a pivot to these guys, as I wouldn't be absolutely shocked if he beat one of them in FPs, and he's cheap! Higbee is an ok option on paper, but he took a backseat last week, and he is more expensive than the 3.5K range of TEs we like a lot, pass.
PHI/NYJ
Eagles have a meh P/RB matchup.
Jets have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Hurts has a meh pressure rate situation, but a great pass potential. Swift has a good run potential.
Z. Wilson has a bad pressure rate situation, and a bad pass potential. Hall has a bad run potential.
Eagles TTR is 5th (good).
Jets TTR is 21st (meh).
Pace of play is 12th (meh). O/U Rank is 10th (meh).
- Injuries - PHI - On D, CB Slay (100%), DT Carter (51%), S Evans (82%) are all out and CB Maddox (90%) is still out. On O, no WR Watkins.
- NYJ - On D, CB Gardner (98%) is out, CB Reed (98%) is out for 2nd week, backup CB Echols is out.
Swift is not priced correctly for his usage... I like him a lot this week, the only issue is goal line work can be hurts, but either way, he's shown to be a workhorse, and the last 2 weeks he is also averaging 5 targets/g, I hope he goes unnoticed. Devonta Smith has been really good with a target share of 22%, and an aDOT of 12.38, but how can we take him when he is just $800 cheaper than Brown who has a 33% target share, and a 13.61 aDOT... I get pivots/leverage in tourneys, so I'm not saying completely cross him off, but give me brown all day. Goedert runs a route on 84% of drop backs, which is the best for a TE in the main slate, he has a good target share at 18%, and an ok aDOT of 6.68, I'm fine if you want to go here again, just know his spike week last week could draw more ownership.
Hall turned the breaking of his chains into 52% snaps, and 25 opps (3 targets), you can make an arguement every one of those metrics are more likely to increase than decrease, and if that's the case he is still a steal at 6K, unfortunately I'd rather fade this week in a tough matchup. When you have over a 30%+ target share and you aren't over 6K, you can be played every week... he also has an aDOT of 10.26, with the secondary injuries, and a positive game script, I have no issues with Wilson this week. For the same reasons I think Lazard is a really good punt/salary relief one-off at 3.7K... he plays practically every snap, and has a great aDOT of 14.1. I don't want to play conklin as the jets play 3 TEs, and he doesn't run a lot of routes, but he does have a good target share of 17%, and an aDOT of 7, I don't think he has to be x'd off your list.
