DFS/Props Week 6 2025 Discussion
- Thread starter ScopeY
- Start date
ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
Thursday Night/Showdown Slate
PHI@NYG
Eagles have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
Giants have a meh P/RB matchup.
Barkley has a good rush potential.
Dart has a meh pressure rate situation, and a bad pass potential.
Pace of play is 10th overall (meh).
- It is concerning that the eagles had 9 called runs last week, and barkley finished with 9 total opps (3 targets), he still finished with 17.8 FPs, thanks to a 47 yard receiving TD (66% of his FPs). We are paying a premium for him, but this is a prime matchup/revenge game too, if the above, as well as workload management concerns keep people away, I say thats when you dive in. PHI this year has really flip flopped, are we running it today, or are we throwing it today, my concern is they are 7 point faves, but even last week, while leading by 2+ possessions for most of the game, Hurts had his season high pass attempts (38), if thats the case, these WRs could explode. In the L3 weeks, Brown has had a 30% target share, with a good 11.9 aDOT, he's had just 1 breakout game this year, but I can see him getting overlooked with all these other higher priced options. I think Smith is playable, especially if all in on the passing offense, but I will have less of him since they are only $200 in price differnce, and his metrics are not as elite (23%/8.5). I don't love Goedert either, but Hurts will look his way in the RZ, and he is the best cheapest piece of this offense to have, so I don't mind if you want to go there.
In his 2 games with Dart, Skattebo is avg'ing 24.5 opps (4.5 targets/g), imo those numbers look better than Barkley, especially on full PPR sites, the problem is, Tracy is now back, and I wouldn't be shocked at a 55-60%/45-40% split, and if mass entering, I'd rather pay down to a cheaper and less owned Tracy, who could see the RZ work too after Skattebo's fumble last week. Again look at darts 2 games, Nabers, and Slayton combined for a 21% target share, and both are out for tonights game... Wandale has a terrible aDOT of 3.25, but his target share of 20% should tick up, I have some interest on full ppr sites (DK), a bit less on 0.5 ppr ones (FD). Theo Johnson becomes very interesting, he's had a good target share of 20% as well, that should tick up, a better aDOT than Wandale (6.5), and FIVE RZ targets in these 2 games, he's cheaper than Wandale, with maybe a safer floor, and higher ceiling... he's even cheaper than tracy, come on. Hyatt must stink, Beau Collins has already creeped on his WR3 role in terms of snaps/usage, if mass entering, I'd sprinkle him in, just incase he hits a HR, otherwise I am going Collins much more, and may eve ndart in a Olszewski.
PHI@NYG
Eagles have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
Giants have a meh P/RB matchup.
Barkley has a good rush potential.
Dart has a meh pressure rate situation, and a bad pass potential.
Pace of play is 10th overall (meh).
- It is concerning that the eagles had 9 called runs last week, and barkley finished with 9 total opps (3 targets), he still finished with 17.8 FPs, thanks to a 47 yard receiving TD (66% of his FPs). We are paying a premium for him, but this is a prime matchup/revenge game too, if the above, as well as workload management concerns keep people away, I say thats when you dive in. PHI this year has really flip flopped, are we running it today, or are we throwing it today, my concern is they are 7 point faves, but even last week, while leading by 2+ possessions for most of the game, Hurts had his season high pass attempts (38), if thats the case, these WRs could explode. In the L3 weeks, Brown has had a 30% target share, with a good 11.9 aDOT, he's had just 1 breakout game this year, but I can see him getting overlooked with all these other higher priced options. I think Smith is playable, especially if all in on the passing offense, but I will have less of him since they are only $200 in price differnce, and his metrics are not as elite (23%/8.5). I don't love Goedert either, but Hurts will look his way in the RZ, and he is the best cheapest piece of this offense to have, so I don't mind if you want to go there.
In his 2 games with Dart, Skattebo is avg'ing 24.5 opps (4.5 targets/g), imo those numbers look better than Barkley, especially on full PPR sites, the problem is, Tracy is now back, and I wouldn't be shocked at a 55-60%/45-40% split, and if mass entering, I'd rather pay down to a cheaper and less owned Tracy, who could see the RZ work too after Skattebo's fumble last week. Again look at darts 2 games, Nabers, and Slayton combined for a 21% target share, and both are out for tonights game... Wandale has a terrible aDOT of 3.25, but his target share of 20% should tick up, I have some interest on full ppr sites (DK), a bit less on 0.5 ppr ones (FD). Theo Johnson becomes very interesting, he's had a good target share of 20% as well, that should tick up, a better aDOT than Wandale (6.5), and FIVE RZ targets in these 2 games, he's cheaper than Wandale, with maybe a safer floor, and higher ceiling... he's even cheaper than tracy, come on. Hyatt must stink, Beau Collins has already creeped on his WR3 role in terms of snaps/usage, if mass entering, I'd sprinkle him in, just incase he hits a HR, otherwise I am going Collins much more, and may eve ndart in a Olszewski.
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ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
Sunday Morning/London/Showdown Slate
DEN@NYJ
Broncos have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Jets have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Nix has a great pressure rate situation, and a good pass potential.
Fields has a bad pressure rate situation, and a meh pass potential. Hall has a meh rush potential.
Pace of play is 6th overall.
- Notes
DEN@NYJ
Broncos have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Jets have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Nix has a great pressure rate situation, and a good pass potential.
Fields has a bad pressure rate situation, and a meh pass potential. Hall has a meh rush potential.
Pace of play is 6th overall.
- Notes
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ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
Sunday 1PMs/Main Slate
DAL@CAR
Cowboys have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Panthers have a great P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Dak has a good pressure rate situation, and a great pass potential.
Young has a meh pressure rate situation. Hubbard? has a great rush potential.
Cowboys TTR is 3rd (great)
Panthers TTR is 9th (good).
Pace of play is T-2nd. O/U Rank is 1st (good).
- If we throw out the blowout loss to CHI in wk3 (where Jav still had 5 targets), Williams is avg'ing 21 opps (3.75 targets/g), 1.5 TDs/g, it gives him a solid floor, with upside for an offense with the 3rd highest TT. Not sure how much of him I'll have, as I still have to feel out the slate, and kind of prefer some passing options more. Assuming Lamb is out, I think I have to pass on Pickens, we are paying a premium price for a WR that has just a 22% target share without Lamb, while that's not terrible, he's priced with Adams/Egbuka, and just a notch below JSN/Chase. Idk how the cheapie TEs are priced, but Ferguson continues to garner a lot of my attention (pawned Bowers & some pieces for him and some pieces that I am happy about in redrafts), He's avg'ing 10 targets/g w/o lamb (1.67 RZ t/g, and was even at 8 targets/g with Lamb), he can be fired up in PPR formats. I am struggling at WR3, I think in tourneys, I'm still willing to dart throw Tolbert, Flournoy got his chance due to turpin being out, but Tolberts snaps didn't really change much, and he went from 6 targets, then 6 targets, to 1 target, while still maintaining the highest aDOT among the healthy core. If mass entering, maybe I'll consider flournoy in 1 or 2, but I'll use more of tolbert as my punt/pivot.
If Hubbard is out again, Dowdle has to be fired up once more (revenge game too), he is coming off a 27 opp (4 target) game and is priced in the 5K range, again in a great environment too. If Hubbard is in, I probably avoid this backfield entirely. It looks like Coker could be back, making the WR2 position a little shaky in terms of who's who, for tournaments, you typically like to see that and if you guess right, you'll get paid, but not sure I go here. McMillan is a fine play, he is reasonably priced, has a 24%~ target share, with a decent aDOT of 11.33, in a projected script and an environment that is favorable for him. Pass at TE, will note that Sanders may be back, and in his last full game, he did have 9 targets with a good TE aDOT of 8+, IF you need a punt/salary saver, and a way to be different in this popular game, that's a way.
CLV@PIT
Browns have a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Steelers have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Gabriel has a bad pressure rate situation, and a meh pass potential (stats somewhat off due to Flacco).
Rodgers has a meh pass potential. Warren? has a bad rush potential.
Browns TTR is 19th (bad).
Steelers TTR is 13th.
Pace of play is T-4th. O/U Rank is 10th (bad/last).
- It needs to be mentioned that Gabriels price went from 4K (min price) to just 4.4K.... like what? No starting QB is under 5K unless the backup is playing post pricing release, he practically 4x'd this salary last week, and is in a better situation, I think he should be considered. Also to note, they played in a neutral script throughout last week, and their pace didn't slow down despite gabriel over flacco (in fact it was a touch faster, but could be sample size). Judkins has yet to hit fewer than 20 opps since leading this backfield (3 weeks), and he is doing that without hitting 60% of snaps yet, and in tough matchups, entire NFC North (MIN/DET/GBP), in last weeks first start with Gabriel, he hit 25 opps (2 targets), someone with that kind of floor in the 5K price range can always be played/considered. I was regretfully giving up on Njoku in redrafts, but Gabriel may be showing us something. Njoku had a big time 28% target share, with a decent aDOT of 6.1, he also had 2 RZ targets in this game, he is priced so low at 3.5K, it practically crosses off the Sanders types mentioned above, as his floor/ceiling combo is so much higher. Nobody is going to be on Jeudy, so if you want to take a shot in tourneys as a low owned option, I think you can, and I have a feeling I'll warm up to it as time goes on, because he is the WR1, and this is a week to week league where metrics should return to the mean, I say this, because Bond is CHEAP in the 3K range, and he had a 22% target share/13.5 aDOT last week with Gabriel, which outshines Jeudy very well.... if the ownership is going to far in Bonds direction, I'll gladly take Jeudy, but thats not to say avoid Bond, as maybe this is a sign of things to come.
If you think Gainwell has earned a bigger timeshare of the backfield, then maybe we avoid this with Warren now healthy, but if you think Warren continues where he left off, he finished week 3 with an 80% snap share, and 24 opps (6 targets), nobody will be playing him because of what I first started, as well as a tough matchup vs CLV, but in tourneys, I can see the reason why. I don't love these pass catchers, but they are cheap, and can easily pay off this salary. Why I don't love it, is Metcalf has a 21% target share, which is fine, but his aDOT is just 6.4, and the pass volume on this team remains low (in 2 of 4 games Rodgers didn't even get to 24 pass attempts... 20% of that is rounding up to just 5 targets, ew. If Austin plays, I guess he could be dart throwed, as he has a big 14.5 aDOT, with decent target share, if he is out, I guess some of that does funnel to DK. Pass at TE, steelers play 4, but keep an eye out for Washington, he went from under 50% snaps, to 90%+ last game, while Frier/Joonu went from 70%+ to under 30%.
LAC@MIA
Chargers have a great P/RB matchup.
Dolphins have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Herbert has a bad pressure rate situation, but a great pass potential. Haskins/Vidal have a great rush potential.
Tua has a meh pressure rate situation, and a meh pass potential. Achane has a bad rush potential.
Chargers TTR is T-6th (good).
Dolphins TTR is 15th.
Pace of play is 11th (meh). O/U Rank is T-6th.
- I really hope LAC sets the pace here, because both of these teams are top 4 in pass play %, one because of script typically (MIA), and the other because it looks like their mentality change/they trust the QB (LAC).
I guess you can take a stab at this backfield in tourneys, but post hampton injury, these 2 almost perfectly split, and I got a feeling that continues, so while 1 may pane out, it's more likely neither satisfies you. These TEs are cheap, but Dissly is back, and it makes it more convoluted, I think it's best to pass, again Njoku isn't that much more expensive, and probably has a higher floor than these guys ceilings. WR spot is very interesting to me, I mentioned LAC has been pass first mentality this year, but they may be pushed further in that direction with another injury to the backfield, if they can set the pace I think this is a good tourney/game stack option, where I hope people see the pace/wr matchup and decide to stay away. All 3 are playable, all 3 are within $300 of eachother, I like QJ the least with the injury concern and the biggest aDOT, and I say that because of the OL issues for LAC, he'll have less time to develop his routes, but I won't exclude him, Ladd>Allen>QJ for me.
I'm fine with Achane on PPR sites, he's averaging more than 6 targets/g, and hit 7 last week without Hill, and truthfully, that may be his floor. What I don't like is he is priced as the RB3, with having just 1 boom game this year (out of 5), and even that boom game, he only 3.3x'd this salary, and had just 30 yards on the ground. I can see where he studs or duds you. In his first game w/o Hill this year, Waddle had a pretty good 27% target share, but a massive 16 aDOT, which is double what his first 4 weeks were combined. Increased volume, increased depth, WR1 now priced at the bottom of 6K, in a positive projected script, got to like him again. I guess Washington/Ikhine can be mentioned, as they are near floor price, and are trying to establish themselves as the WR2, but Ikhine wasn't targetted, and Washington had a 4 aDOT... Waller after Waddle (maybe Achane) is my other consideration. He had a 15% target share which is just ok, but he had a really good TE aDOT of 11.6, and more importantly has had 3 RZ targets in his L2 games. I probably won't have much of him at all (as I currently like going down to njoku or up to ferguson at the moment) but I get it if you like it.
LAR@BAL
Rams have a great P/RB matchup.
Ravens have a good RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Stafford has a great pass potential.
Rush? has a bad pressure rate situation, and a bad pass potential.
Rams TTR is 4th (good).
Ravens TTR is T-17th (meh).
Pace of play is 15th (bad/last). O/U Rank is T-6th.
- I know this could very well bite me in the ass, Nacua is in god mode, he is the highest he has ever been priced (higher than Taylor/CMC too), and he still has practically 3x'd this salary in all 5 games. The matchup looks wonderful, but I have major concerns. One, the weather (which I wish doesn't get played up), could end up having 25-30 mph gusts, with some rain too, they are big faves, I mentioned his extremely high price, but while the Rams play at a pretty fast pace, the Ravens are one of the slowest in the league, and last week with Rush they were the slowest of all teams, and that was with a positive pass script, and a reason to hurry up a bit (atleast until it was completely blowout territory). I will be very underweight this game. Having said that, if the wind doesn't look as bad as it will be, and everyone is making noise about not touching this game, there is reason to take these players. We know the offense is concentrated, and they like to throw, as Nacua and Adams make up over 60% of the target share. Kyren is 3rd at 11%. Speaking of Kyren, weather the above holds true or not, he can be played, he is a bellwcow priced in the 6K range in a favorable script, and quietly had 10 targets last week... now we know that won't hold, but it is nice to see he has had a steady floor, plus the matchup is still good.
They trailed and still only threw the ball 20 times... how can we trust the pass catchers on PPR sites? To add in the conditions above too. How the mighty have fallen, Henry is the cheapest he has ever been, he unfortunately doesn't have a good PPR floor, hitting single digits in 3 of 5 games, and with no threat of being thrown on, or lamar's legs, how can we trust his opportunities on the ground? If you want to click him at extreme low single digit ownership, and hope he rips a long one, or plods for 2 short TDs, have at it. I'll note that flowers did lead the team with a 25% target share, but that resulted in 5 total targets, and he is about 6K, I can't see it being worth it.
ARI@IND
Cards have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Colts have a meh P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Kyler? has a great pressure rate situation. Carter? has a meh rush potential.
D. Jones has a great pressure rate situation, and a good pass potential. Taylor has a good rush potential.
Cards TTR is 16th (meh).
Colts TTR is 2nd (great).
Pace of play is 13th (bad). O/U Rank is 4th (good).
- Carter is cheap, and he is coming off a 23 opp (5 target) game, we've gone over this, but 20+ opps with a ppr floor is value in the 5K range. It also helps that his backup had the blunder that we all have witnessed. He also did this on less than 60% of snaps, so I get going here as a tourney pivot off the other popular cheap RB options, not sure I go here. We don't know if Kyler plays or not, but the game is in a dome, and they are in a positive passing script, Brissett is cheap at 4.2K, and so is Kyler at 5.7K, Kyler has yet to have a spike game, but has such a consistent floor, he practically 3x's this each week again without a real spike game, something to keep an eye on moving forward if he remains in the 5K range. W/o Jones, Mi. Wilson played almost 100% of snaps week 4 and had 6 targets, he is one to add to the punt/salary saver list if needed. The 2 we primarily need to look at is MHJ and McBride, they both grade out similarly, mcbride more targets, MHJ double the aDOT. I am leaning more into MHJ because he is so cheap for his position, and we have other TE options we like, but I won't cross him off.
If you have conviction in playing Taylor then do it, the guy has consistently seen 20+ opps, and actually has had a decent PPR floor, and has logged 3 TD games in 2 out of 5 games this year. Practically last years Barkley. My concern is ownership, pricing, and that in 2 of 5 games, he actually didn't 2x this salary, so he feels boom or busty (which I guess is good for tourneys). Jones has lost a bit of that rushing floor he has shown in the past, and only accounts for 1 total TD in 2 of his last 3, but we need to be mindful of ARI injuries, they've been w/o CB Williams for 3 weeks (still out), and Melton for 1 week (Q at the moment), and just got back Johnson last week (Q at the moment), as well as DT Robinson/LB Wilson, both Q. Looking to see if atleast 1 of those other CBs are out, Pierce looks to be back as well, and Jones best 2 games was when he had his full lineup out there. In those 2 games, Pierce had a huge aDOT of 17.6, and worthy of a dart throw it's just that he is not that much cheaper than pittman.. who has scored in 4 of 5 games this year, and a 23.5% target share, averaging 1 rz target/g, Fine with Warren as well, I do prefer to pay up for ferguson, but he is a pivot off of him and maybe less owned.
SEA@JAC
Seahawks have a good RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Jags have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Lawrence has a great pressure rate situation.
Seahawks TTR is T-10th.
Jags TTR is T-6th (good).
Pace of play is 8th (meh). O/U Rank is T-2nd (good).
- I have some fear here, as both defenses in this matchup have been of the "they're kind of underrated/pretty good", and I don't want to forget that there is a path to failure in stacking this game. But I kind of want to trust Vegas's line, and we've seen these teams already play in high scoring games this year. I know Nacua gets all the attention, and the volume is there to outshine JSN, but JSN as WR1 overall capabilities every week, and grades out as the #1 WR when looking at target share (33%), and aDOT, 12.8. I have no problem firing him up in any matchup, including this one. I want to say that I am off Kupp, he has a bad aDOT of 5.4, but a 22% target share, and about a 90%+ snap share capability kind of makes me like him as a pivot because he is priced so cheap. In 4 of 5 weeks, Barner was capped at 3 targets, now he is coming off a 7 target game, and he does get RZ looks, so I understand taking a shot on him, but I think I would use him strictly in game stacks. With Charb healthy, I really can't touch this backfield, I actually rather Charb, as I think he plays more, and is looking like he gets the RZ looks while being 1K cheaper, but I am not taking either when on a weekly basis we get a value back with more of a guarantee for opps/snaps.
I think ETN is ok to play, he has a bit of a ppr floor, and he does get usage/snaps, but we wish it to be higher, now if Tutan (Q) is out, I will happily take him, ala R. White last week (although White didn't run to well, he found room as a pass catcher, and did secure 2 TDs). BTJ seems to be trending upwards, as he had a 24% target share last week, with a really good aDOT of 15.33, Strange got hurt at halftime, but he is leaving behind about a 15% target sharem and some should funnel his way (and probably accounts for some of that 24%), we just saw Egbuka do well against this secondary, I kind of think BTJ could be a good play this week. I don't want to take hunter just yet, but I will note that he played a season high 66% of snaps on offense, and also had an aDOT of 16, but I think its a bit to volatile for me, and both Brown/Washington look to be healthy again.
NEP@NOS
Pats have a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Saints have a great P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Maye has a great pass potential. Stevenson? has a bad rush potential.
Pats TTR is T-6th (good).
Saints TTR is 14th.
Pace of play is 1st (good). O/U Rank is 5th.
- If we look at the L2 weeks, Diggs has an insane 42% target share, and 10.1 aDOT, is the beginning of the trend? If so, he could be a must to jump on now while he is still under 6K, because those metrics are alpha status. Henry continues to have one of the best TE aDOTs in the league (10 for the season at the moment), he's just a little to range-y for me and is kind of priced in no mans land. Last week was Henderson highest snap share game of the year (50%), but neither RB even got to 10 opps. Do I think one could get into the endzone twice? Sure, but I'm not wasting my money this week. If I want to get ahead on Diggs, I have no problem stacking him with Maye, we've seen 20+ ceiling games which at a minimum 3+x's this salary of his.
Olave is starting to feel more of a cash game play over a tourney play, as he has yet to post a single digit stat line, but he also has not hit 1 HR yet... The thing is he still has a 31.5% target share that more than makes up for his 7.9 aDOT (and even better metrics last week in a positive rush script), I have no problem going here at 5.1K. Shaheed has hit 2 long TDs this year (39 and 87 yards), so if you want to aim for a HR hit, you could do worse, he also has yet to have less than 4 catches in a game this year, on the flipside, I am off Juwan Johnson, with Hill/Moreau he has seen his production drop, maybe it's a small sample size, as he has had consistent snap usage, but I'll let others go for it. Saints led, and Kamara barely got over 50% of snaps, and just 8 carries... not sure I want to go here if this is a trend that will hold, he still has a nice PPR floor, and maybe there's an argument he shouldn't be 5k range, but I'm not doing it.
Sunday 4PMs/Main Slate (Cont.)
SFO@TBB
49ers have a great P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Bucs have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Purdy? has a good pass potential. CMC has a bad rush potential.
Baker has a good pressure rate situation, and a good pass potential.
49ers TTR is 12th.
Bucs TTR is 5th (good).
Pace of play is 8th (meh). O/U Rank is T-2nd (good).
- We have issues in this game, we want to attack this pass funnel D in TBB, but there's a chance there is no Purdy OR Jones in this one. If that's the case, idk if I want play this offense at all, if one of them is in, they are cheap enough that we want to play him. CMC's worst PPR game this year resulted in 22.7 FPs... think about that. I don't necessarily want to play him without the 2 QBs, but I guess 8+ target floor is doable with any QB. He doesn't have a rushing TD yet this season, and he isn't likely to get it with no QB, and the TBB run D. I don't think Pearsall will be in, but Jennings looks more likely to be playing, I've already mentioned the pass funnel D that is TBB, if we get a QB in this game, we want to attack Jennings/Bourne, even Tonges but just for PPR formats.
Yes White only had 18 opps last week (4 targets), and had a poor YPC performance, but he saw 80% of snaps, was utilized in the RZ, and the matchup does not appear to be as difficult, he has to be considered at 6K. I obviously like egbuka, especially if godwin is out, but if Godwin is in, I think he is a smarter tourney pivot. He is only avg'ing 1.5 less targets than Egbuka in this 2 game stretch, and also has a double digit aDOT (which wasn't typical of him in prior years), I lean more that way. I guess we can include Otton because he plays a ton, and is avg'ing 4.5 targets/g w/o evans, but he has burned me so many times, and why pay for him when Njoku is $300 more, or even Juwan $100 less, pass.
TEN@LVR
Titans have a great P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Raiders have a great P/RB matchup.
Ward has a meh pressure rate situation. Pollard~ has a meh rush potential.
Geno has a great pressure rate situation, but a bad pass potential.
Titans TTR is T-17th (meh).
Raiders TTR is T-10th.
Pace of play is 7th. O/U Rank is 9th (meh).
- Cam Ward has been bad, but look, he 2x'd this salary with 0 TDs and negative rush yards last week, and now has a matchup vs LVR, and maybe building confidence off of their first win, I actually have some interest in him. In that game last week, Ridley had a 27% target share, and a 16.8 aDOT, if this is even the Ridley of last year, he has background/quiet breakout potential, and he is in the 4K salary range, you can have these 2 players for under 10K... just as a thought, if you go these 2 + a cheap D, you can practically stack any of the best options you want, and maybe need 1 more value play. I don't want to forget about Ayomanor, there have been a couple games this year where he has had better metrics than Ridley, and if mass entering, I'll tinker with both a touch, but I am going to stick with more ridley. I fully understand if you don't want to go here though, only other thing I'll note, is that Pollard still kept his bellcow role with Spears back, who is still going through precautions with his injury, do I think spears will eat into him as the year goes on, of course, but until that happens, Pollard has a decent floor/ceiling combo that gets lost because he plays for the Titans, he's had atleast 14 carries and 3 targets in 3 straight games.
Raiders are favorites? is that the first time all year? Definitely the biggest all year, as -4.5 at the moment. Jeanty has now had b2b games 21+ opps, 4.5 targets/g, we saw his spike game vs CHI, and I would assume they are trying to dial back in Geno from throwing it forward to much, and he has a matchup that looks great on paper. I don't love his price of 6.9K, but I understand if you want to go here. Last week the 2 TEs for LVR saw 9 targets, bowers doesn't look like a go, and Mayer may be back and Bowers is still out, I don't hate him as a cheap punt option at 3.1K (similar to Njoku). I know Geno is cheap, and we've seen his spike games more than 4x this salary, but even in a cake matchup vs the bears, where he threw for 2 TDs, he still finished with just 12.8 FPs (that looks impossible to do typing that out), and he has a pretty sad floor, I'll be passing, but go for it if you want. Somehow Meyers is priced the highest all year despite 3 straight games of single digit performances, if you think TEN finds something on offense vs this LVR D, then maybe consider these guys as low owned options with good ceilings, but I still lean towards tucker a touch.
CIN@GBP
Bengals have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Packers have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
Flacco? has a bad pressure rate situation, and a bad pass potential (somewhat skewed). C. Brown has a meh rush potential.
Love has a great pass potential. Jacobs has a good rush potential.
Bengals TTR is 20th (bad/last).
Packers TTR is 1st (great).
Pace of play is 9th (meh). O/U Rank is T-6th.
Weirdly enough, Flacco gets his second shot at this GBP D, everyone making a stink about being behind another bad offensive line, but he also hasn't had these weapons at his disposal. He is priced at the stone min of 4K, and will probably end up with 40+ pass attempts again, I am totally cool with going here. Now I don't want to heavily stack this game, so idk if I will stack flac with chase brown, but I will note in his 4 games in CLV, he targeted RBs 34 times (8.5 targets/g), he feels to cheap at 5.6K, and I will include him as a one-off for sure. Kind of a wait and see approach on Flacco here, but if we think he will have 40+ attempts, everyone is on the table... I think price wise, it could be smart getting ahead on higgins at a cheap price, and let chase be, but no worries whichever direction you prefer.
In the 2 full weeks without Reed, all 3 of these WRs have been practically identical, especially Golden/Doubs, if you want to go here, I would sprinkle them all in, but I think Wicks should be included in the cheap/punt/salary saver option, as he is near the floor price, and has had the best aDOT of the 3, and a target share just 3% lower than them (10/10/8 total targets for the 3). I think Jacobs has solid TD equity, is in a prime spot, has a turnover friendly QB on the other side, and we've now seen b2b games with 25+ opps (6.5 targets/g), shouldn't be upset clicking his name.
DAL@CAR
Cowboys have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Panthers have a great P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Dak has a good pressure rate situation, and a great pass potential.
Young has a meh pressure rate situation. Hubbard? has a great rush potential.
Cowboys TTR is 3rd (great)
Panthers TTR is 9th (good).
Pace of play is T-2nd. O/U Rank is 1st (good).
- If we throw out the blowout loss to CHI in wk3 (where Jav still had 5 targets), Williams is avg'ing 21 opps (3.75 targets/g), 1.5 TDs/g, it gives him a solid floor, with upside for an offense with the 3rd highest TT. Not sure how much of him I'll have, as I still have to feel out the slate, and kind of prefer some passing options more. Assuming Lamb is out, I think I have to pass on Pickens, we are paying a premium price for a WR that has just a 22% target share without Lamb, while that's not terrible, he's priced with Adams/Egbuka, and just a notch below JSN/Chase. Idk how the cheapie TEs are priced, but Ferguson continues to garner a lot of my attention (pawned Bowers & some pieces for him and some pieces that I am happy about in redrafts), He's avg'ing 10 targets/g w/o lamb (1.67 RZ t/g, and was even at 8 targets/g with Lamb), he can be fired up in PPR formats. I am struggling at WR3, I think in tourneys, I'm still willing to dart throw Tolbert, Flournoy got his chance due to turpin being out, but Tolberts snaps didn't really change much, and he went from 6 targets, then 6 targets, to 1 target, while still maintaining the highest aDOT among the healthy core. If mass entering, maybe I'll consider flournoy in 1 or 2, but I'll use more of tolbert as my punt/pivot.
If Hubbard is out again, Dowdle has to be fired up once more (revenge game too), he is coming off a 27 opp (4 target) game and is priced in the 5K range, again in a great environment too. If Hubbard is in, I probably avoid this backfield entirely. It looks like Coker could be back, making the WR2 position a little shaky in terms of who's who, for tournaments, you typically like to see that and if you guess right, you'll get paid, but not sure I go here. McMillan is a fine play, he is reasonably priced, has a 24%~ target share, with a decent aDOT of 11.33, in a projected script and an environment that is favorable for him. Pass at TE, will note that Sanders may be back, and in his last full game, he did have 9 targets with a good TE aDOT of 8+, IF you need a punt/salary saver, and a way to be different in this popular game, that's a way.
CLV@PIT
Browns have a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Steelers have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Gabriel has a bad pressure rate situation, and a meh pass potential (stats somewhat off due to Flacco).
Rodgers has a meh pass potential. Warren? has a bad rush potential.
Browns TTR is 19th (bad).
Steelers TTR is 13th.
Pace of play is T-4th. O/U Rank is 10th (bad/last).
- It needs to be mentioned that Gabriels price went from 4K (min price) to just 4.4K.... like what? No starting QB is under 5K unless the backup is playing post pricing release, he practically 4x'd this salary last week, and is in a better situation, I think he should be considered. Also to note, they played in a neutral script throughout last week, and their pace didn't slow down despite gabriel over flacco (in fact it was a touch faster, but could be sample size). Judkins has yet to hit fewer than 20 opps since leading this backfield (3 weeks), and he is doing that without hitting 60% of snaps yet, and in tough matchups, entire NFC North (MIN/DET/GBP), in last weeks first start with Gabriel, he hit 25 opps (2 targets), someone with that kind of floor in the 5K price range can always be played/considered. I was regretfully giving up on Njoku in redrafts, but Gabriel may be showing us something. Njoku had a big time 28% target share, with a decent aDOT of 6.1, he also had 2 RZ targets in this game, he is priced so low at 3.5K, it practically crosses off the Sanders types mentioned above, as his floor/ceiling combo is so much higher. Nobody is going to be on Jeudy, so if you want to take a shot in tourneys as a low owned option, I think you can, and I have a feeling I'll warm up to it as time goes on, because he is the WR1, and this is a week to week league where metrics should return to the mean, I say this, because Bond is CHEAP in the 3K range, and he had a 22% target share/13.5 aDOT last week with Gabriel, which outshines Jeudy very well.... if the ownership is going to far in Bonds direction, I'll gladly take Jeudy, but thats not to say avoid Bond, as maybe this is a sign of things to come.
If you think Gainwell has earned a bigger timeshare of the backfield, then maybe we avoid this with Warren now healthy, but if you think Warren continues where he left off, he finished week 3 with an 80% snap share, and 24 opps (6 targets), nobody will be playing him because of what I first started, as well as a tough matchup vs CLV, but in tourneys, I can see the reason why. I don't love these pass catchers, but they are cheap, and can easily pay off this salary. Why I don't love it, is Metcalf has a 21% target share, which is fine, but his aDOT is just 6.4, and the pass volume on this team remains low (in 2 of 4 games Rodgers didn't even get to 24 pass attempts... 20% of that is rounding up to just 5 targets, ew. If Austin plays, I guess he could be dart throwed, as he has a big 14.5 aDOT, with decent target share, if he is out, I guess some of that does funnel to DK. Pass at TE, steelers play 4, but keep an eye out for Washington, he went from under 50% snaps, to 90%+ last game, while Frier/Joonu went from 70%+ to under 30%.
LAC@MIA
Chargers have a great P/RB matchup.
Dolphins have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Herbert has a bad pressure rate situation, but a great pass potential. Haskins/Vidal have a great rush potential.
Tua has a meh pressure rate situation, and a meh pass potential. Achane has a bad rush potential.
Chargers TTR is T-6th (good).
Dolphins TTR is 15th.
Pace of play is 11th (meh). O/U Rank is T-6th.
- I really hope LAC sets the pace here, because both of these teams are top 4 in pass play %, one because of script typically (MIA), and the other because it looks like their mentality change/they trust the QB (LAC).
I guess you can take a stab at this backfield in tourneys, but post hampton injury, these 2 almost perfectly split, and I got a feeling that continues, so while 1 may pane out, it's more likely neither satisfies you. These TEs are cheap, but Dissly is back, and it makes it more convoluted, I think it's best to pass, again Njoku isn't that much more expensive, and probably has a higher floor than these guys ceilings. WR spot is very interesting to me, I mentioned LAC has been pass first mentality this year, but they may be pushed further in that direction with another injury to the backfield, if they can set the pace I think this is a good tourney/game stack option, where I hope people see the pace/wr matchup and decide to stay away. All 3 are playable, all 3 are within $300 of eachother, I like QJ the least with the injury concern and the biggest aDOT, and I say that because of the OL issues for LAC, he'll have less time to develop his routes, but I won't exclude him, Ladd>Allen>QJ for me.
I'm fine with Achane on PPR sites, he's averaging more than 6 targets/g, and hit 7 last week without Hill, and truthfully, that may be his floor. What I don't like is he is priced as the RB3, with having just 1 boom game this year (out of 5), and even that boom game, he only 3.3x'd this salary, and had just 30 yards on the ground. I can see where he studs or duds you. In his first game w/o Hill this year, Waddle had a pretty good 27% target share, but a massive 16 aDOT, which is double what his first 4 weeks were combined. Increased volume, increased depth, WR1 now priced at the bottom of 6K, in a positive projected script, got to like him again. I guess Washington/Ikhine can be mentioned, as they are near floor price, and are trying to establish themselves as the WR2, but Ikhine wasn't targetted, and Washington had a 4 aDOT... Waller after Waddle (maybe Achane) is my other consideration. He had a 15% target share which is just ok, but he had a really good TE aDOT of 11.6, and more importantly has had 3 RZ targets in his L2 games. I probably won't have much of him at all (as I currently like going down to njoku or up to ferguson at the moment) but I get it if you like it.
LAR@BAL
Rams have a great P/RB matchup.
Ravens have a good RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Stafford has a great pass potential.
Rush? has a bad pressure rate situation, and a bad pass potential.
Rams TTR is 4th (good).
Ravens TTR is T-17th (meh).
Pace of play is 15th (bad/last). O/U Rank is T-6th.
- I know this could very well bite me in the ass, Nacua is in god mode, he is the highest he has ever been priced (higher than Taylor/CMC too), and he still has practically 3x'd this salary in all 5 games. The matchup looks wonderful, but I have major concerns. One, the weather (which I wish doesn't get played up), could end up having 25-30 mph gusts, with some rain too, they are big faves, I mentioned his extremely high price, but while the Rams play at a pretty fast pace, the Ravens are one of the slowest in the league, and last week with Rush they were the slowest of all teams, and that was with a positive pass script, and a reason to hurry up a bit (atleast until it was completely blowout territory). I will be very underweight this game. Having said that, if the wind doesn't look as bad as it will be, and everyone is making noise about not touching this game, there is reason to take these players. We know the offense is concentrated, and they like to throw, as Nacua and Adams make up over 60% of the target share. Kyren is 3rd at 11%. Speaking of Kyren, weather the above holds true or not, he can be played, he is a bellwcow priced in the 6K range in a favorable script, and quietly had 10 targets last week... now we know that won't hold, but it is nice to see he has had a steady floor, plus the matchup is still good.
They trailed and still only threw the ball 20 times... how can we trust the pass catchers on PPR sites? To add in the conditions above too. How the mighty have fallen, Henry is the cheapest he has ever been, he unfortunately doesn't have a good PPR floor, hitting single digits in 3 of 5 games, and with no threat of being thrown on, or lamar's legs, how can we trust his opportunities on the ground? If you want to click him at extreme low single digit ownership, and hope he rips a long one, or plods for 2 short TDs, have at it. I'll note that flowers did lead the team with a 25% target share, but that resulted in 5 total targets, and he is about 6K, I can't see it being worth it.
ARI@IND
Cards have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Colts have a meh P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Kyler? has a great pressure rate situation. Carter? has a meh rush potential.
D. Jones has a great pressure rate situation, and a good pass potential. Taylor has a good rush potential.
Cards TTR is 16th (meh).
Colts TTR is 2nd (great).
Pace of play is 13th (bad). O/U Rank is 4th (good).
- Carter is cheap, and he is coming off a 23 opp (5 target) game, we've gone over this, but 20+ opps with a ppr floor is value in the 5K range. It also helps that his backup had the blunder that we all have witnessed. He also did this on less than 60% of snaps, so I get going here as a tourney pivot off the other popular cheap RB options, not sure I go here. We don't know if Kyler plays or not, but the game is in a dome, and they are in a positive passing script, Brissett is cheap at 4.2K, and so is Kyler at 5.7K, Kyler has yet to have a spike game, but has such a consistent floor, he practically 3x's this each week again without a real spike game, something to keep an eye on moving forward if he remains in the 5K range. W/o Jones, Mi. Wilson played almost 100% of snaps week 4 and had 6 targets, he is one to add to the punt/salary saver list if needed. The 2 we primarily need to look at is MHJ and McBride, they both grade out similarly, mcbride more targets, MHJ double the aDOT. I am leaning more into MHJ because he is so cheap for his position, and we have other TE options we like, but I won't cross him off.
If you have conviction in playing Taylor then do it, the guy has consistently seen 20+ opps, and actually has had a decent PPR floor, and has logged 3 TD games in 2 out of 5 games this year. Practically last years Barkley. My concern is ownership, pricing, and that in 2 of 5 games, he actually didn't 2x this salary, so he feels boom or busty (which I guess is good for tourneys). Jones has lost a bit of that rushing floor he has shown in the past, and only accounts for 1 total TD in 2 of his last 3, but we need to be mindful of ARI injuries, they've been w/o CB Williams for 3 weeks (still out), and Melton for 1 week (Q at the moment), and just got back Johnson last week (Q at the moment), as well as DT Robinson/LB Wilson, both Q. Looking to see if atleast 1 of those other CBs are out, Pierce looks to be back as well, and Jones best 2 games was when he had his full lineup out there. In those 2 games, Pierce had a huge aDOT of 17.6, and worthy of a dart throw it's just that he is not that much cheaper than pittman.. who has scored in 4 of 5 games this year, and a 23.5% target share, averaging 1 rz target/g, Fine with Warren as well, I do prefer to pay up for ferguson, but he is a pivot off of him and maybe less owned.
SEA@JAC
Seahawks have a good RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Jags have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Lawrence has a great pressure rate situation.
Seahawks TTR is T-10th.
Jags TTR is T-6th (good).
Pace of play is 8th (meh). O/U Rank is T-2nd (good).
- I have some fear here, as both defenses in this matchup have been of the "they're kind of underrated/pretty good", and I don't want to forget that there is a path to failure in stacking this game. But I kind of want to trust Vegas's line, and we've seen these teams already play in high scoring games this year. I know Nacua gets all the attention, and the volume is there to outshine JSN, but JSN as WR1 overall capabilities every week, and grades out as the #1 WR when looking at target share (33%), and aDOT, 12.8. I have no problem firing him up in any matchup, including this one. I want to say that I am off Kupp, he has a bad aDOT of 5.4, but a 22% target share, and about a 90%+ snap share capability kind of makes me like him as a pivot because he is priced so cheap. In 4 of 5 weeks, Barner was capped at 3 targets, now he is coming off a 7 target game, and he does get RZ looks, so I understand taking a shot on him, but I think I would use him strictly in game stacks. With Charb healthy, I really can't touch this backfield, I actually rather Charb, as I think he plays more, and is looking like he gets the RZ looks while being 1K cheaper, but I am not taking either when on a weekly basis we get a value back with more of a guarantee for opps/snaps.
I think ETN is ok to play, he has a bit of a ppr floor, and he does get usage/snaps, but we wish it to be higher, now if Tutan (Q) is out, I will happily take him, ala R. White last week (although White didn't run to well, he found room as a pass catcher, and did secure 2 TDs). BTJ seems to be trending upwards, as he had a 24% target share last week, with a really good aDOT of 15.33, Strange got hurt at halftime, but he is leaving behind about a 15% target sharem and some should funnel his way (and probably accounts for some of that 24%), we just saw Egbuka do well against this secondary, I kind of think BTJ could be a good play this week. I don't want to take hunter just yet, but I will note that he played a season high 66% of snaps on offense, and also had an aDOT of 16, but I think its a bit to volatile for me, and both Brown/Washington look to be healthy again.
NEP@NOS
Pats have a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Saints have a great P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Maye has a great pass potential. Stevenson? has a bad rush potential.
Pats TTR is T-6th (good).
Saints TTR is 14th.
Pace of play is 1st (good). O/U Rank is 5th.
- If we look at the L2 weeks, Diggs has an insane 42% target share, and 10.1 aDOT, is the beginning of the trend? If so, he could be a must to jump on now while he is still under 6K, because those metrics are alpha status. Henry continues to have one of the best TE aDOTs in the league (10 for the season at the moment), he's just a little to range-y for me and is kind of priced in no mans land. Last week was Henderson highest snap share game of the year (50%), but neither RB even got to 10 opps. Do I think one could get into the endzone twice? Sure, but I'm not wasting my money this week. If I want to get ahead on Diggs, I have no problem stacking him with Maye, we've seen 20+ ceiling games which at a minimum 3+x's this salary of his.
Olave is starting to feel more of a cash game play over a tourney play, as he has yet to post a single digit stat line, but he also has not hit 1 HR yet... The thing is he still has a 31.5% target share that more than makes up for his 7.9 aDOT (and even better metrics last week in a positive rush script), I have no problem going here at 5.1K. Shaheed has hit 2 long TDs this year (39 and 87 yards), so if you want to aim for a HR hit, you could do worse, he also has yet to have less than 4 catches in a game this year, on the flipside, I am off Juwan Johnson, with Hill/Moreau he has seen his production drop, maybe it's a small sample size, as he has had consistent snap usage, but I'll let others go for it. Saints led, and Kamara barely got over 50% of snaps, and just 8 carries... not sure I want to go here if this is a trend that will hold, he still has a nice PPR floor, and maybe there's an argument he shouldn't be 5k range, but I'm not doing it.
Sunday 4PMs/Main Slate (Cont.)
SFO@TBB
49ers have a great P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Bucs have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Purdy? has a good pass potential. CMC has a bad rush potential.
Baker has a good pressure rate situation, and a good pass potential.
49ers TTR is 12th.
Bucs TTR is 5th (good).
Pace of play is 8th (meh). O/U Rank is T-2nd (good).
- We have issues in this game, we want to attack this pass funnel D in TBB, but there's a chance there is no Purdy OR Jones in this one. If that's the case, idk if I want play this offense at all, if one of them is in, they are cheap enough that we want to play him. CMC's worst PPR game this year resulted in 22.7 FPs... think about that. I don't necessarily want to play him without the 2 QBs, but I guess 8+ target floor is doable with any QB. He doesn't have a rushing TD yet this season, and he isn't likely to get it with no QB, and the TBB run D. I don't think Pearsall will be in, but Jennings looks more likely to be playing, I've already mentioned the pass funnel D that is TBB, if we get a QB in this game, we want to attack Jennings/Bourne, even Tonges but just for PPR formats.
Yes White only had 18 opps last week (4 targets), and had a poor YPC performance, but he saw 80% of snaps, was utilized in the RZ, and the matchup does not appear to be as difficult, he has to be considered at 6K. I obviously like egbuka, especially if godwin is out, but if Godwin is in, I think he is a smarter tourney pivot. He is only avg'ing 1.5 less targets than Egbuka in this 2 game stretch, and also has a double digit aDOT (which wasn't typical of him in prior years), I lean more that way. I guess we can include Otton because he plays a ton, and is avg'ing 4.5 targets/g w/o evans, but he has burned me so many times, and why pay for him when Njoku is $300 more, or even Juwan $100 less, pass.
TEN@LVR
Titans have a great P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Raiders have a great P/RB matchup.
Ward has a meh pressure rate situation. Pollard~ has a meh rush potential.
Geno has a great pressure rate situation, but a bad pass potential.
Titans TTR is T-17th (meh).
Raiders TTR is T-10th.
Pace of play is 7th. O/U Rank is 9th (meh).
- Cam Ward has been bad, but look, he 2x'd this salary with 0 TDs and negative rush yards last week, and now has a matchup vs LVR, and maybe building confidence off of their first win, I actually have some interest in him. In that game last week, Ridley had a 27% target share, and a 16.8 aDOT, if this is even the Ridley of last year, he has background/quiet breakout potential, and he is in the 4K salary range, you can have these 2 players for under 10K... just as a thought, if you go these 2 + a cheap D, you can practically stack any of the best options you want, and maybe need 1 more value play. I don't want to forget about Ayomanor, there have been a couple games this year where he has had better metrics than Ridley, and if mass entering, I'll tinker with both a touch, but I am going to stick with more ridley. I fully understand if you don't want to go here though, only other thing I'll note, is that Pollard still kept his bellcow role with Spears back, who is still going through precautions with his injury, do I think spears will eat into him as the year goes on, of course, but until that happens, Pollard has a decent floor/ceiling combo that gets lost because he plays for the Titans, he's had atleast 14 carries and 3 targets in 3 straight games.
Raiders are favorites? is that the first time all year? Definitely the biggest all year, as -4.5 at the moment. Jeanty has now had b2b games 21+ opps, 4.5 targets/g, we saw his spike game vs CHI, and I would assume they are trying to dial back in Geno from throwing it forward to much, and he has a matchup that looks great on paper. I don't love his price of 6.9K, but I understand if you want to go here. Last week the 2 TEs for LVR saw 9 targets, bowers doesn't look like a go, and Mayer may be back and Bowers is still out, I don't hate him as a cheap punt option at 3.1K (similar to Njoku). I know Geno is cheap, and we've seen his spike games more than 4x this salary, but even in a cake matchup vs the bears, where he threw for 2 TDs, he still finished with just 12.8 FPs (that looks impossible to do typing that out), and he has a pretty sad floor, I'll be passing, but go for it if you want. Somehow Meyers is priced the highest all year despite 3 straight games of single digit performances, if you think TEN finds something on offense vs this LVR D, then maybe consider these guys as low owned options with good ceilings, but I still lean towards tucker a touch.
CIN@GBP
Bengals have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Packers have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
Flacco? has a bad pressure rate situation, and a bad pass potential (somewhat skewed). C. Brown has a meh rush potential.
Love has a great pass potential. Jacobs has a good rush potential.
Bengals TTR is 20th (bad/last).
Packers TTR is 1st (great).
Pace of play is 9th (meh). O/U Rank is T-6th.
Weirdly enough, Flacco gets his second shot at this GBP D, everyone making a stink about being behind another bad offensive line, but he also hasn't had these weapons at his disposal. He is priced at the stone min of 4K, and will probably end up with 40+ pass attempts again, I am totally cool with going here. Now I don't want to heavily stack this game, so idk if I will stack flac with chase brown, but I will note in his 4 games in CLV, he targeted RBs 34 times (8.5 targets/g), he feels to cheap at 5.6K, and I will include him as a one-off for sure. Kind of a wait and see approach on Flacco here, but if we think he will have 40+ attempts, everyone is on the table... I think price wise, it could be smart getting ahead on higgins at a cheap price, and let chase be, but no worries whichever direction you prefer.
In the 2 full weeks without Reed, all 3 of these WRs have been practically identical, especially Golden/Doubs, if you want to go here, I would sprinkle them all in, but I think Wicks should be included in the cheap/punt/salary saver option, as he is near the floor price, and has had the best aDOT of the 3, and a target share just 3% lower than them (10/10/8 total targets for the 3). I think Jacobs has solid TD equity, is in a prime spot, has a turnover friendly QB on the other side, and we've now seen b2b games with 25+ opps (6.5 targets/g), shouldn't be upset clicking his name.
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ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
Sunday Night/Showdown Slate
DET@KCC
Lions have a great RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Chiefs have a meh P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Goff has a meh pressure rate situation. Gibbs/Montgom have a great rush potential.
Mahomes has a meh pressure rate situation, and a meh pass potential.
Pace of play is 12th (bad).
- Notes
DET@KCC
Lions have a great RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Chiefs have a meh P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Goff has a meh pressure rate situation. Gibbs/Montgom have a great rush potential.
Mahomes has a meh pressure rate situation, and a meh pass potential.
Pace of play is 12th (bad).
- Notes
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ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
Monday Night/2 Game Slate
BUF@ATL
Bills have a good RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Falcons have a great RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Cook has a good rush potential.
Penix has a good pressure rate situation, but a bad pass potential. Bijan has a great rush potential.
Bills TTR is 2nd (great)
Falcons TTR is 3rd.
Pace of play is 14th (bad/last). O/U Rank is T-1st (good)
- I actually think ATL is a live dog, I fear the clock in this game will continue to tick, and it'll limit the overall expectations/output of this offense, on top of that, the production after Allen (and a little bit Cooks) can come from whomever. I'll be underweight. Having said that, since Samuel has been back (last 2 weeks), he actually have a WR with a 27% target share, and that is Shakir, for PPR formats, I think he can be played but you have to know that Shakir has an aDOT of 1.5 on 14 targets in his L2, that's really bad, and needs to get everything with YAC (which he has). Looking at the L2 weeks, Allen has got a bit more concentrated, Coleman had a target share of 21%, but it came with a big 14.3 aDOT, and I am more willing to dart throw on him in tourneys. The Last pass catcher to note is Kincaid, as he has a big TE aDOT of 14, but he still splits time with others (knox, slightly Hawes), never really seeing 60% of snaps, and WRs had 6 RZ targets to 0 for the TEs, so I am going to pass here. If out, I will take knox at the min price, and if mass entering, maybe sprinkle hawes in. I personally think ATL keeps this game close, with an opp. to lead, and if thats the case, we should see the higher end of Cooks PPR floor, we've seen explosive games, but we have also seen the most recent dud of 4.9 FPs in BUFs first loss, not sure how I want to approach RBs, as we are probably auto locking in Bijan, and that leaves 1 to 2 spots for about 5~ options, I'll be underweight Cook.
In Penix's 2 wins, he attempted 21, and 26 pass attempts, in those 2 wins, Bijan and Allgeier combined for 38 and 33 rush attempts, neither seeing fewer than 16 (and not even counting Bijans 11 targets), I actually think you can get unique and play both of these guys in the same lineup, if it hits, you will have huge leverage on the field, and I do think there is a real path to this being a reality. I know we also have to be realistic and notice BUF coming off a loss, playing in a dome as road faves can leave this time playing from behind as well. Well, the last time Mooney was out was week 1, and London finished with a 36% target share, he is viable. In that game, Casey Washington led the WRs in snaps (95%), and had a 16.5 aDOT on 14% target share, I think he is another pivot option at the stone min if trying to build stars and scrubs. I don't really love Pitts aDOT, and never get to excited, I am more about the run game today, so I probably won't have much of him, but I guess there is no TE we really love.
CHI@WAS
Bears have a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Commanders have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Swift~ has a bad rush potential.
Daniels has a good pressure rate situation, and a good pass potential. Croskey~ has a great rush potential.
Bears TTR is 4th.
Commanders TTR is 1st (great)
Pace of play is T-4th. O/U Rank is T-1st (good)
- I think Caleb is viable, he has been pretty range-y with an ok floor to start the year (4 games), but in those 2 games he's had 2 where he more than 4x'd this salary, coming off a bye, in a favorable spot, I think I will be going here (this game in general) more than not for my QB. Swift is quietly forgotten about, he still plays over 60%+ of snaps, is coming off a 20opp (6 targets), and is actually avg'ing 4.5 targets/g, never fewer than 3, an obvious statement, but if he hits a TD he is likely optimal, but if other RBs don't hit TDs, I think he can still get you to double digits, which I am only comfortable saying that about Bijan really (sorry Cook). Can't go Burden until he plays more as he has been locked at like a 20% target share, and has only burned the DAL D, Zaccheaus has the higher floor, and is cheaper. I just know I am going to get burned when I just completely avoid Moore, as I keep holding out hope he will have a spike week over Odunze, but the metrics show Odunze is the man, he has a 27% target share, with a good 12.3 aDOT, Moore has a 16% target share, and a meh 8.3 aDOT, and one has 6 RZ targets to just 2, again in favor of Odunze of course. While I will have some shares of both, even in same lineups, I will be more heavily on Odunze. In place of Moore may be a share of Zacchaeus (I guess burden), but I kind of don't mind Kmet, on the season he also has a big aDOT of 11.3, and if Loveland is out again, he just had a 25% target share game, with RZ looks.
Daniels is averaging just 1.33 total TDs/g (3 games), and hasn't topped over 233 passing yards yet, but he still has had a floor of 17 FPs, we've seen this D get torn up, plus he has a good rushing floor (which we were nervous about in his come back from injury, but he had 8 carries for 39 in that game), he can be considered. Croskey still hasn't hit 50% of snaps, but last week he still got 16 opps (2 targets), if we see his role/snaps grow, he could be a smash target, and why I keep knocking cook down the line in this 2 game slate. In the 3 games with Daniels, Deebo has a great 31.5% target share, now take out Mclaurin and Brown for week 5 (3rd game with daniels), and that balononed to 48%, he may be a must start for me. Not counting Deebo, the next WRs all played very sporadically, as 3 WRs were between 24 and 39%, and then Chris Moore led the no names with 59%, I don't trust any of them, but if leaning very much in this game, I'd say don't feel afraid to dart throw one of them, idk how much I will.
BUF@ATL
Bills have a good RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Falcons have a great RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Cook has a good rush potential.
Penix has a good pressure rate situation, but a bad pass potential. Bijan has a great rush potential.
Bills TTR is 2nd (great)
Falcons TTR is 3rd.
Pace of play is 14th (bad/last). O/U Rank is T-1st (good)
- I actually think ATL is a live dog, I fear the clock in this game will continue to tick, and it'll limit the overall expectations/output of this offense, on top of that, the production after Allen (and a little bit Cooks) can come from whomever. I'll be underweight. Having said that, since Samuel has been back (last 2 weeks), he actually have a WR with a 27% target share, and that is Shakir, for PPR formats, I think he can be played but you have to know that Shakir has an aDOT of 1.5 on 14 targets in his L2, that's really bad, and needs to get everything with YAC (which he has). Looking at the L2 weeks, Allen has got a bit more concentrated, Coleman had a target share of 21%, but it came with a big 14.3 aDOT, and I am more willing to dart throw on him in tourneys. The Last pass catcher to note is Kincaid, as he has a big TE aDOT of 14, but he still splits time with others (knox, slightly Hawes), never really seeing 60% of snaps, and WRs had 6 RZ targets to 0 for the TEs, so I am going to pass here. If out, I will take knox at the min price, and if mass entering, maybe sprinkle hawes in. I personally think ATL keeps this game close, with an opp. to lead, and if thats the case, we should see the higher end of Cooks PPR floor, we've seen explosive games, but we have also seen the most recent dud of 4.9 FPs in BUFs first loss, not sure how I want to approach RBs, as we are probably auto locking in Bijan, and that leaves 1 to 2 spots for about 5~ options, I'll be underweight Cook.
In Penix's 2 wins, he attempted 21, and 26 pass attempts, in those 2 wins, Bijan and Allgeier combined for 38 and 33 rush attempts, neither seeing fewer than 16 (and not even counting Bijans 11 targets), I actually think you can get unique and play both of these guys in the same lineup, if it hits, you will have huge leverage on the field, and I do think there is a real path to this being a reality. I know we also have to be realistic and notice BUF coming off a loss, playing in a dome as road faves can leave this time playing from behind as well. Well, the last time Mooney was out was week 1, and London finished with a 36% target share, he is viable. In that game, Casey Washington led the WRs in snaps (95%), and had a 16.5 aDOT on 14% target share, I think he is another pivot option at the stone min if trying to build stars and scrubs. I don't really love Pitts aDOT, and never get to excited, I am more about the run game today, so I probably won't have much of him, but I guess there is no TE we really love.
CHI@WAS
Bears have a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Commanders have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Swift~ has a bad rush potential.
Daniels has a good pressure rate situation, and a good pass potential. Croskey~ has a great rush potential.
Bears TTR is 4th.
Commanders TTR is 1st (great)
Pace of play is T-4th. O/U Rank is T-1st (good)
- I think Caleb is viable, he has been pretty range-y with an ok floor to start the year (4 games), but in those 2 games he's had 2 where he more than 4x'd this salary, coming off a bye, in a favorable spot, I think I will be going here (this game in general) more than not for my QB. Swift is quietly forgotten about, he still plays over 60%+ of snaps, is coming off a 20opp (6 targets), and is actually avg'ing 4.5 targets/g, never fewer than 3, an obvious statement, but if he hits a TD he is likely optimal, but if other RBs don't hit TDs, I think he can still get you to double digits, which I am only comfortable saying that about Bijan really (sorry Cook). Can't go Burden until he plays more as he has been locked at like a 20% target share, and has only burned the DAL D, Zaccheaus has the higher floor, and is cheaper. I just know I am going to get burned when I just completely avoid Moore, as I keep holding out hope he will have a spike week over Odunze, but the metrics show Odunze is the man, he has a 27% target share, with a good 12.3 aDOT, Moore has a 16% target share, and a meh 8.3 aDOT, and one has 6 RZ targets to just 2, again in favor of Odunze of course. While I will have some shares of both, even in same lineups, I will be more heavily on Odunze. In place of Moore may be a share of Zacchaeus (I guess burden), but I kind of don't mind Kmet, on the season he also has a big aDOT of 11.3, and if Loveland is out again, he just had a 25% target share game, with RZ looks.
Daniels is averaging just 1.33 total TDs/g (3 games), and hasn't topped over 233 passing yards yet, but he still has had a floor of 17 FPs, we've seen this D get torn up, plus he has a good rushing floor (which we were nervous about in his come back from injury, but he had 8 carries for 39 in that game), he can be considered. Croskey still hasn't hit 50% of snaps, but last week he still got 16 opps (2 targets), if we see his role/snaps grow, he could be a smash target, and why I keep knocking cook down the line in this 2 game slate. In the 3 games with Daniels, Deebo has a great 31.5% target share, now take out Mclaurin and Brown for week 5 (3rd game with daniels), and that balononed to 48%, he may be a must start for me. Not counting Deebo, the next WRs all played very sporadically, as 3 WRs were between 24 and 39%, and then Chris Moore led the no names with 59%, I don't trust any of them, but if leaning very much in this game, I'd say don't feel afraid to dart throw one of them, idk how much I will.
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Rusty Trombone
Pretty much a regular
Love reading your stuff brother! Would you be able to make a top 5 list of your favorite TD scorers every week? Mainly +$ guys or under the radar a bit. Of course guys like Gibbs will always be at/near the top....
Thanks for all you do!
Thanks for all you do!
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Lexington 125
I cap it all, and I cap it well.
Lexington 125
I cap it all, and I cap it well.
Weekly reminder to play against the Cowboys secondary with the #2 wr on the opposing team. It has hit every week I believe and it should be a low number. Legette? I can't see him being lined much higher than 24 (haven't seen any lines at my books yet)
ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
Thanks guys, unfortunately had someone close pass, great guy to share DFS notes with too/loved fantasy football.
I'll see what I can do trombone!
Updated DFS thoughts for tonights game, will try to get some of the main slate down as the day goes by!
Tonight.
Aj Brown Receptions O4.5 -127
B. Collins Receptions O1.5 -138
Love Theo Johnson too, probably take him to score.
I'll see what I can do trombone!
Updated DFS thoughts for tonights game, will try to get some of the main slate down as the day goes by!
Tonight.
Aj Brown Receptions O4.5 -127
B. Collins Receptions O1.5 -138
Love Theo Johnson too, probably take him to score.
Rusty Trombone
Pretty much a regular
Thoughts on thisnTD scorer list....like these a lot....
Flournoy - Dallas
Higgins- Cincy
Worthy- KC
Barner- Seattle
Golden- GB
Dowdle- Carolina
To a lesser degree....
Kmet, Kincaid, Warren (Indy), Waller
Flournoy - Dallas
Higgins- Cincy
Worthy- KC
Barner- Seattle
Golden- GB
Dowdle- Carolina
To a lesser degree....
Kmet, Kincaid, Warren (Indy), Waller
ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
I probably don't go dowdle if chubba is in.
I also don't know if flournoy is smoke and mirrors if turpin (or I guess lamb) is back.
Totally get Barner, been a RZ guy all year
The rest I have not looked at yet
Rusty Trombone
Pretty much a regular
I dont think chubby, lamb or Turpin are going to play. Dowdle against old team and Prescott was praising Flournoy.....
ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
Thanks Bar.
1 PMs
T. McBride Receptions O6.5 -115
M. Pittman Rec Yds O51.5 -112
R. Dowdle Rush Attempts O18.5 -103
Jav. Williams Rush Attempts O17.5 -109
K .Williams Rush Yds O72.5 -113
D. Hopkins Rec Yds U12.5 -113
D. Njoku Receptions O4.5 +123
D. Washington Receptions O1.5 -101
S. Diggs Rec Yds O62.5 -114
C. Olave Receptions O5.5 -145
L. McConkey Rec Yds O67.5 -112
J. Waddle Receptions O5.5 -141
B. Thomas Jr. Rec Yds O58.5 -112
C. Kupp Rec Yds U43.5 -114
4 PMs
C. Ridley Rec Yds O48.5 -114
M. Mayer Receptions O3.5 -107
C. Brown Receptions O3.5 -124
J. Jacobs Rush&Rec Yds O102.5 -111
E. Egbuka Receptions O5.5 -137
M. Jones Passing Yds O252.5 -111
1 PMs
T. McBride Receptions O6.5 -115
M. Pittman Rec Yds O51.5 -112
R. Dowdle Rush Attempts O18.5 -103
Jav. Williams Rush Attempts O17.5 -109
K .Williams Rush Yds O72.5 -113
D. Hopkins Rec Yds U12.5 -113
D. Njoku Receptions O4.5 +123
D. Washington Receptions O1.5 -101
S. Diggs Rec Yds O62.5 -114
C. Olave Receptions O5.5 -145
L. McConkey Rec Yds O67.5 -112
J. Waddle Receptions O5.5 -141
B. Thomas Jr. Rec Yds O58.5 -112
C. Kupp Rec Yds U43.5 -114
4 PMs
C. Ridley Rec Yds O48.5 -114
M. Mayer Receptions O3.5 -107
C. Brown Receptions O3.5 -124
J. Jacobs Rush&Rec Yds O102.5 -111
E. Egbuka Receptions O5.5 -137
M. Jones Passing Yds O252.5 -111
ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
Tonights 2 game slate updated.
11-9 yesterday,
12-10 overall this week
Doesn't help when you got overs on Egbuka/Njoku/Ridley and they all get injured.
T. Allgeier Rush Attempts O7.5 -122 (I went bigger on this...)
D. Samuel Receptions O5.5 -126
Like Swift opps, odunze rec yds o, cook rush u, maybe croskey o but less on that.
11-9 yesterday,
12-10 overall this week
Doesn't help when you got overs on Egbuka/Njoku/Ridley and they all get injured.
T. Allgeier Rush Attempts O7.5 -122 (I went bigger on this...)
D. Samuel Receptions O5.5 -126
Like Swift opps, odunze rec yds o, cook rush u, maybe croskey o but less on that.
skanless13
Fly, Eagles, Fly!
Agree with how you see the Atl game
Good luck.
That's a really nice bet on Tyler. Good juice too as that's been on the move this early evening.
Ball control game plan can only help this!!
Man, that Tyler prop looked dead in the water.
The game sealing drive was beautiful though! I tailed, thanks!!
ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
Oh ya, happy to hear.
Felt like everytime it was Allgeiers turn to drive, it would be a 1st down play action that didn't go nowhere (or negative yards, thanks Pitts), and then they wouldn't use him in a 2nd/3rd and long, then Bijans back, I still kept hope because they were playing with a lead, but it did get scary by the end.
Deebo was a mistake, should have figured he would be limited.