DFS/Props Week 4 2025 Discussion

ScopeY

Pretty much a regular
Week 1: 8-3
Week 2: 14-14
Week 3: 10-9

Total: 32-26

Just want to reiterate to be cautious with pace of play/EPA metrics etc. until we are a bit further into the season, but will still take note of where we are at at this moment.
 
Thursday Night/Showdown Slate

SEA@ARI


Seahawks have a meh P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Cards have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Darnold has a good pressure rate situation, and a good pass potential.
Kyler has a great pressure rate situation, and a good pass potential. Benson~ has a bad rush potential.
Pace of play is T-15th (bad/last).

- I think I'm out on walker at his price, Charb is back, and when both were in in weeks 1/2, he actually didn't even get over 40% of snaps. Let others chase. Charb on the flip side is an insane 5.4K, could be a capt. candidate as well. This is the 3rd? week in a row where we have to tout JSN and he still hasn't disappointed, he continues to have the best WR metrics thus far with an insane 40% target share, and a really good aDOT of 12.7, another candidate for capt. imo. I kind of don't care for Kupp, he is a fine possession WR, so he can get there on PPR sites, but his aDOT of 5.5 doesn't get me home. If you look at the last 2 weeks, altough I know his 2 TD game will bring eyes here, but Horton has a 16% target share, with a good aDOT of 13.6, I want to say he is worth it, but I think he is more of a pivot off charb IF you think a lot go there. SEA plays like 4+ TEs, lol, i'm not on barner, but if Arroyo is in, $800 bucks is a big time punt play, but 1 catch pays him off, Saubert if Arroyo is out.

While I am comfortable in my Charb over Walker position, I am a bit more concerned here. I want to fade Benson, strictly because he is already priced up (appropriately) but we don't know his true role. Will he not have goalline carries (+ Kyler vulture candidate)? If he is capped at 60% of snaps, you're paying a premium price that reflects closer to a bellcow than a timeshare. My gut says to fade for now, even sneak a few demarcado lineups if mass entering. I want to note that I feel like Kyler capt. will get overlooked/under the radar, he hasn't been to great this year, and he is up against a DEF that looks to be the real deal, but he has a safe floor, hitting over 30+ rush yds/g, and has yet to have a 3+ TD game, take away Conner in the redzone, and maybe they rely on him more. I think MHJ is a fine play, I just hate his target share to start the year -- 19% --- do I think that is the lower end of his range? Yes, but we would like to see it first before going in on a showdown slate where ownership is concentrated, I will have him, but will be underweight. McBride is as safe as they come on PPR sites, he has a big 27% target share for a TE and obviously the best pairing candidate for Kyler. Looking deeper gets interesting, Z. Jones (WR3) is likely out, and he's played about 50% of snaps every week, that will open up the door for Dortch season, why this gets interesting, is he is practically priced with the WR2, Michael Wilson, who plays a lot more, and has a big aDOT of 15... I feel like an idiot not going michael, but the answer for dortch is strictly a leverage of wilson (and the others in that 3K area.
 
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Sunday 1PMs/Main Slate

TEN@HOU


Titans have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Texans have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
Ward has a bad pass potential.
Titans TTR is 22nd (bad).
Texans TTR is 14th.
Pace of play is 12th (meh). O/U Rank is 11th (bad).

- I am not saying this is a smart play, Titans do have the lowest TT on the slate, but Ward is priced below 5K. For context, any starter going into the week (barring injury) I don't think I've ever seen under 5K. They just switched play callers, and his stacking partners are also dirt cheap. I am not going overboard by any means, but if I am mass entering, I may do a mini stack here, just have to see how the rest of the slate shakes out.

Anyways, Pollard is seeing 90% of snaps, and has 20 opp range, hitting 4 targets last week, he can be one-off'd on all formats in that 5K range. They're both soo cheap, and almost identical in metrics, Ridley/Ayomanor is 23%/20%, 11.2/13.4, 89%/75%, in terms of target share/aDOT/snap share, Ayomanor is 1K cheaper, but has 3 RZ targets already on the season (2 TDs), and this is for a team that has struggled to get there. You can argue any of them to be one-offs. Chig and his 4 aDOT I am out on, but I can be convinced at 3.5K if you have conviction.

The matchup is good, but Chubb is capped at about 55% of snaps, and 14opps~ (2.33 targets/g), I'll pass most likely. Pass at WR3 and lower, Kirk suppressed a lot of those guys capabilities. Speaking of Kirk, he is only 4.4K, and had a 67% snap count (could go up next week), and a 22% target share, with a good 12.2 aDOT, I think he is someone that goes completely unnoticed and will be on my one-off list, he will be a direct pivot off of tucker/boutte/tillman/etc (not saying I don't like those guys, but thinking of range of outcomes and tourney leverage, here is a way to flip it on them). I obviously have no issues with Collins, he still had a 31% target share last week with kirk back, and a 12.6 aDOT --- aka, still an alpha.

NOS@BUF

Saints have a great RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Bills have a great P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Rattler has a meh pass potential. Kamara has a great rush potential.
Allen has a good pressure rate situation, and a great pass potential. Cook has a good rush potential.
Saints TTR is 21st (bad).
Bills TTR is 1st (great).
Pace of play is 1st (good). O/U Rank is T-2nd (good).

- What the hell do we do with the saints, all these guys have huge volume, albeit empty volume, but on PPR sites, we can't write these guys off with how cheap they are. Kamara is still seeing 75%+ of snaps, even in these blowout losses, while having a floor of 20 opps, I doesn't feel good, and idk how much I'll have of these guys, but I can't completely cross Kamara off at 6.1K. I want to make note that Cooks is playing about the same amount of snaps as shaheed, while actually having a bigger aDOT than him, and he is close to min price at 3.6K, just something to be mindful of if mass entering and want to dart throw/stars and scrubs build. And on the otherside, Olave is only $500 more than Shaheed, but he has a massive 32% target share (leads the league in targets), just 1 TD, and this guy is beyond optimal/20+ point scorer. Another week, another saints player who looks good on paper, the 2 things going against johnson is an extremely tough matchup, and a price that continues to increase (wow, first saints player to say that about), He has yet to see fewer than 8 targets though, and he is an everydown snap guy, if nobody is looking his way because of my first point, again, I don't think you want to totally cross him off.

Bills have the #1 team total by a wide margin, there's a high probability you need some part of this team in your lineups to succeed. It's tough to pick which WR to pair Allen with, or do we just naked allen and hope he spreads it out, and rushes some in? Not 1 player has a target share at or above 19%, and only Palmer is in double digit aDOT territory, coleman/shakir/palmer all have RZ targets, if you must stack, you can take any in tournaments really. Cook is averaging 20.67 opps/g (3targets/g), idk what to do with him. For starters, he is priced higher than ever before (rightfully so), but in the 1 blowout game BUF had, he only had 1 target, so he doesn't have the safest floor. I need to add in that game, he did account for 2 of the TDs. I think I'd prefer Allen in most cases, but you can't take him in every lineup, and when not, Cook is the way to get exposure to this offense. With a TT over 30, maybe some uniqueness would be playing both?

CLV@DET

Browns have a great P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Lions have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Judkins~ has a bad rush potential.
Goff has a good pressure rate situation.
Browns TTR is 20th (meh).
Lions TTR is 2nd (great).
Pace of play is T-9th (meh). O/U Rank is T-6th.

- Similar to BUF above, nobody on this team has a target share at or above 19%. The positive news, is Flacco has a much higher pass attempt/g number than BUF (9 more per game). Even in last weeks closely contest win, he still threw the ball 36 times, that should be his floor on the year, and they are once again, underdogs. These WRs also come even cheaper than the BUF core, coupled with what I said above, and I think they are one-off-able. I like Tillman if that Q tag keeps his ownership low, but Jeudy plays the most, by a good amount, and is the only player on the team with an aDOT over 10, at 13.9. If you want to take a cheap shot on Fannin, or Njoku, I get it, not sure if I go there depending on the rest of the slate I review (aka, not sure yet).

I know Montgomery lit it up on monday night, and he looks cheap at 5.7K, but he still had just 1 target, and is up against a stingy D, oh and he still has yet to hit 40% of snaps. Gibbs on the other hand quietly still had 28 opps (6 targets) last week, he is 3rd amongst all RBs in target share%, and I think a lot of people avoid the matchup with how well cleveland looked in GB, but this team still has the 2nd highest implied team total. I think in tournaments, you can go here. I know we are paying an "alpha" price on St. Brown, and his target share of 27% looks good, but it doesn't when you look at the guys surrounding him (nabers/nacua/etc), Not something I absolutely want to attack, despite me doing it last week with GBP vs this D, but because of these guys ceilings, as well as the low ownership %, I think they can make a ton of sense, I will note ASB also has 8 RZ targets on the year already, he has TD equity every week. Not really in love with the rest, Jam Wills has a big aDOT of 17+, but he isn't cheap, and averaging just 4 targets/g, pass.

LAC@NYG

Chargers have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
Giants have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Herbert has a great pressure rate situation, and a great pass potential. Hampton has a great rush potential.
Dart has a bad pressure rate situation, and a bad pass potential. Skattebo has a meh rush potential.
Chargers TTR is 6th (good).
Giants TTR is 19th (meh).
Pace of play is 6th (meh). O/U Rank is T-8th.

- Herbert deserves some attention at 6.3K, this team has been much more of a pass first offense, and in 2 of his 3 games he's shown that he is willing to tuck it and run as well, giving him some type of floor when needed, because usually we would want 300+, 2+ but not as much anymore (even though he is still favored to hit that, but being able to get 30+ rush yards, means he can get 75+ less passing yards and match the points given. Pass at TE. McConkey is strictly a leverage, low owned pivot option, but I won't be having him. He has kind of been a bust in this offense after the Allen trade, as he has the lowest target share of the bunch, and tied for the worst aDOT (9) it just doesn't feel right clicking his name at the most expensive price. Oh, he also has the fewest RZ targets (1), compared to both Allen and Johnston (5 each). I think QJ/Allen can be interchangeable, one has bigger play ability, but still getting targets (johnston), the other gets more targets, while still having an ok aDOT (9). So what do we do with Hampton, the passing offense mentioned above I think is kind of sneaky good, because everyone is going to be in a rush to click Hamptons name.... and I can't even blame them. He had 26 opps (7 targets) last week (if you look at DET above, that's gibbs like), and he is still in the 5K range, he's a lock for 80%+ of snaps in a non blowout.... maybe we try an onslaught stack, but it is hard not to like him. I know I hinted at it above, but if you fade him, you should be playing this passing offense to shine, as it will be a direct attack on hamptons ownership.

Not going to lie to you, and no I am not a Giants fan, I either woke from a dream, or it was the first thing I thought of before breaking back into consciences, but I envisioned a 2 rush TD + 2 pass TD game from Dart, lmao, I have to be involved in that in some way (one of those things where you post it, it doesn't happened, but if you keep it to yourself, it smashes, and you're left explaining to air). Anyways, he is 4.5K, we know he can use his legs, and we've seen cheapies be optimal the past few weeks (mariota/geno/jones/wentz/etc) You could pair him up with a pass catcher, I am throwing the target share stuff out the window for now, plus we are waiting on injury concerns from Nabers/Slayton, but feel free to pair with any of the 3 if you want, or play him naked, I don't think that's an issue. Have to kind of throw out the metrics for Skattebo too, but he did have 18 opps (8 targets) last week, while not even hitting 60% of snaps, he is obviously cheap enough to consider.

WAS@ATL

Commanders have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Falcons have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Daniels? has a meh pressure rate situation. Croskey? has a great rush potential.
Bijan has a meh rush potential.
Commanders TTR is 16th.
Falcons TTR is T-10th.
Pace of play is 3rd. O/U Rank is T-6th.

- If Daniels plays, we have to wonder if he will be using his legs like he used to, well apparently he feels no discomfort in that knee, and if we expect his rush attempts to be there, I think he is a viable candidate. He hit 20 points in week 1 and 2 despite being held under 234 passing yards in each and only having 3 total TDs (all passing). Even one good game (not average game), and he could hit 30+ with ease. Pass on the backfield, we have value options, why play a backfield where nobody even hit over 40% of snaps... Mclaurin has yet to practice this week, in weeks 1&2 with Daniels, he had a 19% target share.... Deebo had a 26% target share, and even if 1/4th of mclaurins usage goes to him (which is being pessimistic imo), I think he can be clicked. I guess I should say the same could be said about Ertz, he did score in both of Daniels games, I just don't love to click his name. If both mclaurin and brown are out, dart throws on Moore>McCaffrey>Lane in a stars and scrubs lineup could be considered.

Penix hasn't scored a TD since week1, and then after there week 1 loss, it looks like they said we are just going to keep it out of your hands, so much so that even when playing in a big time positive pass script game last week, he couldn't even match his pass attempts from week 1.... that's why I kind of have concerns with London, who is going to be the most popular cash game WR of the slate. He is 5.7K (WTF), but since Mooney's return, he doesn't even have a 20% target share --- I'd much rather take Mooney here, who matches his aDOT, will be leverage off the uber popular london, and who has had a bigger target share thus far. My only fear with doing this, is I know London can have alpha games, and WAS does look like pass funnel, but I still may take a stand, haven't decided yet. Bijan kind of failed us last week despite 16 points just 2x'ing his salary, he did still have 19 opps (6 targets). My problem, like mentioned earlier, is they are more of a pass funnel D, and he is actually the most expensive he has been all year.

PHI@TBB

Eagles have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Bucs have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Hurts has a bad pressure rate situation.
Eagles TTR is 9th (good).
Bucs TTR is 17th.
Pace of play is 14th (bad). O/U Rank is T-8th.

- you can only consider PHI passing offense if we think they suddenly shifted their mentality to throw the ball downfield on neutral scripts, or if we expect them to be playing from behind like vs LAR last week. I am not sure either of those things happen, which makes me not to much in love with the Browns/Smiths of the world. I want to note that, while he is expensive, Barkley has quietly hit 5 targets in 2 of the 3 games this year, coupled that with a floor of 22 opps per week, and you have the safest floor a guy could have, obviously the only frustrating thing is getting to the 1/2/3 yard line is always guaranteed to be hurts and never barkley. I do think he is viable though.

Bucky has steadily seen his usage increase over 3 weeks, hitting 29 opps (4 targets) last week, and he has yet to see less than 4 targets in a game yet, he is practically a lock for 20+ opps 4+ targets, and if he can find paydirt, then he's a smash. Have to include him. Evans leaves, Godwin returns, Evans vacates a big 29% target share which should help all other ships rise (another reason to like bucky, as some % of that has to slide to him). I don't know godwins full usage yet, and he isn't really priced as a discount, I understand the want to go to egbuka, I probably will remain underweight, but I think a cheap punt option is Shepard, he's already avg'ing 5 targets a game, he has atleast a 61% snap share in all games, and if godwin isn't 100%, it is hard not to see those numbers look even better for him after this week. I guess Otton can be included but his ship has thrown me overboard so many times, he just does not get targeted enough for how often he runs routes, probably fully passing.

CAR@NEP

Panthers have a great P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Pats have a good RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Young has a great pressure rate situation, and a good pass potential.
Henderson? has a bad rush potential.
Panthers TTR is 18th (meh).
Pats TTR is T-7th (good).
Pace of play is T-9th (meh). O/U Rank is T-8th.

- Hubbard always grades out alright, he is cheaply priced, and is averaging 19 opps (4.66 targets/g --- never fewer than 3) and comes in with a Q tag, which usually I love because it keeps people off. Having said that, I am not sure I go here, because --- like Kyler on thursday night --- Young seems way to cheap at 4.9K in this matchup. On paper this looks good, and in 2 of youngs 3 starts, he didn't even get to 155 passing yard, and had 1 total TD in each, yet he still more than 2x'd this salary. Even if he puts up a decent game (not great), he could get close to 4x'ing without a ceiling game and that screams value to me. Another reason to really like this offense, is there still is no Legette, and now no J. Sanders at TE, these 2 averaged a 30% target share in weeks 1 and 2 (not to mention maybe no hubbard either), and last week without legette (and sanders still in), McMillan had a big time 33% target share, with a decent aDOT of 9.75, McMillan, if actice, is a yes please click for me. I am concerned about renfrows drop in snaps last week, but if you have conviction go for it, who I want to note is Da. Moores floor price of 3K, yet a 97% snap count last week, if mass entering, he is absolutely a worthy punt play. I guess Tremble or Evans at TE can be considered as punt options as well as they are at our near floor price too (2.7/2.5K).
Edit: I want to point out that legette and sanders combined for 9 RZ targets that are now vacant as well.

I know this may kind of bite me in the ass, but with Stevensons 2 fumbles, and Gibsons fumble last week, as well as Henderson taking first team eps at practice, I may try to jump on this bandwagon before it fully begins. There is risk, as maybe they still rotate in stevenson very frequently, but again, we are not talking cash games here. Even in his 46% snap count game last week, he had 11 opps (6 targets), if he can get up to 60-70% and hopefully have the RZ work too, I can envision a 20+ point game. No WR even has a 15% target share in 3 games this year.... have fun dart throwing if you want, I probably won't. I know Henry was the nuts at TE last week, but his price barely moved, and he leads the team in target share by a decent amount (21%), while having a good TE aDOT of 8.9, while having 5 RZ targets, he is probably the guy to pair with Maye or one-off if you go here despite it feeling like chasing.

Sunday 4PMs/Main Slate (Cont.)

IND@LAR


Colts have a good RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Rams have a great RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Taylor has a good rush potential.
Stafford has a good pass potential. Kyren has a great rush potential.
Colts TTR is T-10th.
Rams TTR is 3rd (great).
Pace of play is 13th (bad). O/U Rank is 1st (good).

- Taylor is averaging 23 opps (never fewer than 21), and 3 targets/g (never fewer than 2), that isn't typically the same as the bellcows up here, but obviously he has slate breaking upside, and behind a great Oline. All of this top options have tough matchups on paper, but aside from Barkley, LAR was pretty susceptible to Pollard and Chubb, so it's not like they can't be had. With Pierce out, he vacates a 15% target share, but also someone needs to step up as he had been a 90%+ snap count kind of guy, nobody on this offense had an aDOT higher than him at 18.6 excpet..... AD Mitchell, I am more inclined to dart throw him, then to take Downs projected volume increase. Pittman for PPR is a safe floor, but so is Warren and his 24% target share, which is great for a TE (practically tied 2nd), the argument against these guys is that the volume all year has been down, well thats because they've been in neutral to positive run scripts all year, and just like last week, is it possible LAR gets out to/plays with a lead? There's a chance, the O/U is top for the week, if you think this is how it plays out, you want some of these pass catchers/action.

Kyren is averaging 20.67 opps (never fewer than 19), and 2.33 targets/g (never fewer than 2), does that sound like somebody above?! and he's over 1K cheaper, playing in a projected more favorable script, I wouldn't have both of these guys, but how you foresee this game going is how I'd play it (Kyren + IND pass catchers, or Taylor + LAR pass catchers). Nacua and Adams almost have a combined 70% target share, which is just absurb, and make both to be graded out as top 5 WRs when weighting their target share and their teams air yard share, either can be played, I obviously lean Adams because he is priced so much cheaper, but he has a Q hammy injury, if he is out, Nacua is a lock it in and figure the rest out type of play. If he is out, Atwell or Whittington become another 3K price range option (finding a few of those this week.

JAC@SFO

Jaguars have a meh P/RB matchup.
49ers have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Lawrence has a great pressure rate situation, but a bad pass potential. Etienne~ has a good rush potential.
M. Jones has a good pressure rate situation, but a meh pass potential. CMC has a bad rush potential.
Jags TTR is 15th,
49ers TTR is 5th (good).
Pace of play is 2nd (good). O/U Rank is T-4th (good).

- ETN is avg'ing 18 opps (2.67 targets)/g, while averaging 60%~ of snaps, any player in the 5K range with those metrics can be viable, I'll likely be underweight though. You just can't play travis hunter, his usage is limited, and he has just a 10% target share with a bad aDOT of 5.75 in his L2. I want to say BTJ is a good play, because I would think most would be off of him, but he has a plus matchup, and he is the cheapest he has ever been, and the game script projects a favorable situation, I think he can be viable, but if Dyami brown is out, I will be off of all of them and strictly play parker washington, after an ingame injury last week to brown, he came in and had a 29% target share, with a 12.5 aDOT, we saw his spike games last year when given opportunity, personally I feel like he should be the WR2 anyways, but if dyami is in, maybe he goes back to being capped.

In 3 games CMC is avg'ing 28 opps (10.67 targets)/g --- that is absurb, and arguably needs to be in every lineup to succeed as his floor & ceiling combo is higher than anybody's. We don't know if none, one, or both of Pearsall/Jennings are playing yet, If one is out, the other is a lock for 10+ targets, also Bourne is a fine option at 3.7K, but if both are in, I lean Jennings, but won't go overboard on either.

CHI@LVR

Bears have a great P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Raiders have a good P/RB matchup.
Williams has a great pass potential. Swift~ has a meh rush potential.
Geno has a good pressure rate situation, and a good pass potential. Jeanty has a meh rush potential.
Bears TTR is T-7th (good).
Raiders TTR is T-10th.
Pace of play is 7th (meh). O/U Rank is T-4th.

- Caleb has atleast 3x'd this salary in every game this year --- even in his 207 passing yard game vs DET, we just saw him go against one of the worst pass D's in the league, and he lit it up, just 2 yards share of the bonus too for even more points, and now he has another bottom dweller in pass D, he, as well as the pass options, can be considered. The 1 week I go more Odunze over Moore I will be burned bad, I know it, having said that, Odunze just grades out so much better, as he has a 28.5% target share, with a better aDOT of 12.4 (Moore is 17%/10.1), while also leading in RZ targets 4 to 1, if taking just one, paying up just $700 makes more sense, but I'll have a tad of Moore just incase. Swift is avg'ing 18 opps (4 targets)/g, I obviously prefer the passing options here so I will be underweight, but if mass entering, a good way to get direct leverage is to hope the production/TDs funnel through him, as a standalone he is viable.

Jeanty's price has come onnnn down, as he is just over 6K now, my problem is after Wk1 it looks like he has been relieved of some 3rd down/passing work, as his snaps went from over 80%, to 60%~, and in those 2 games he has averaged just 16 opps (2 targets)/g, maybe it is because they have been playing in negative rush scripts, and this could be a good buy low opportunity, but I think I am going to wait 1 more week, and maybe we see him in the 5K range. I know there is no Mayer, but the guy had just a 7% target share anyways, we know LVR Oline problems have been a mess, and I actually think it may lead to Bowers needing to protect more, factoring in both of those things, I kind of like Meyers/Tucker more, as I think they get the biggest benefit. I leam more to Meyers after Tuckers boom game, but I will certainly have both.

BAL@KCC

Ravens have a great RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Chiefs have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
Lamar has a bad pressure rate situation, and a meh pass potential. Henry has a good rush potential.
Mahomes has a meh pressure rate situation. Pacheco~ has a great rush potential.
Ravens TTR is 4th (good).
Chiefs TTR is T-10th
Pace of play is 8th (meh). O/U Rank is T-2nd (good)

- Henry is the ultimately make or break player, and I always feel like break is a higher % because of his targets, he has just 2 TOTAL in 3 games, and has hit 60% of snaps just once this year (61%), in his L2, he has averaged 12 opps (0.5 targets)/g, I can't pay 7.2K for that, unless his ownership will be <4%, I am fully fading. W/ Likely back, and Andrews outlier game, I can't click him, I guess in tourneys you can argue Likely is rather cheap at 3.3K, with upside, but I'll likely pass as well. I am very interested in Flowers, even when including his down/quiet game last week, he owns a 31% target share, with a decent aDOT of 10.1, the game has the 2nd highest o/u and I don't know if most go here.

I guess in tourneys you can make an argument for Pacheco, we just saw DET, wk1 BUF, and even wk2 CLV (who had to abandon it) look really good on the ground, and he is dirt cheap at 5K, and looked good in his limited usage last week. However, his target volume is so low, Hunt is a TD vulture candidate, and so is Mahomes honestly, if mass entering, I may include him here or there, but not entirely sure if I want to. This WR group is healthiest it's been in awhile, just waiting on Rashee, but if you want to get ahead of maybe mahomes "figuring" it out, this would be the week to jump in, again the total in this game is good, and games involving Lamar have been at 58 total points or HIGHER, so I have interest in Worthy/Kelce/Brown/Thornton?/etc.
 
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Sunday Night/Showdown Slate

GBP@DAL


Packers have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Cowboys have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Love has a bad pressure rate situation, but a great pass potential. Jacobs has a good rush potential.
Dak has a meh pressure rate situation.
Pace of play is 11th (meh).

- Notes
 
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Monday Night/2 Game Slate

NYJ@MIA


Jets have a great P/RB matchup.
Dolphins have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Fields? has a meh pressure rate situation, but a great pass potential.
Jets TTR is 3rd
Dolphins TTR is 2nd (good)
Pace of play is 5th. O/U Rank is T1st.

- Notes

CIN@DEN

Bengals have a meh P/RB matchup.
Broncos have a great RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Browning has a meh pressure rate situation, and a meh pass potential. Brown has a bad rush potential.
Nix has a great pressure rate situation, but a bad pass potential.
Bengals TTR is 4th (meh).
Broncos TTR is 1st (good).
Pace of play is 4th. O/U Rank is T-1st

- Notes
 
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Missed one

Sunday Morning/Dublin/Showdown Slate

MIN@PIT


Vikings have a great P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Steelers have a good RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Wentz has a meh pass potential.
Rodgers have a bad pressure rate situation, and a bad pass potential. Warren has a meh rush potential.
Pace of play is T-15th (bad/last).

- Notes
 
Last edited:
All preliminary info down, will get the TTRs, O/Us up later in the week, as that is subject to change a little.
 
SEA/ARI DFS thoughts updated above.

On

K. Murray Rush Yds O29.5 -109


waiting on Charb to be active, and will likely add Walker under
 
TTR's, O/U's updated. Could change some come sunday, not sure I'll get to it though

4 of the 5 highest O/U's of the slate is the 4PM slate, the other is BUF and their massive TT (4.75~ higher than 2nd place)
 
was hoping for a higher walker number to go under, while I may regret it, I'll sit out on it
 
2-1 Week 4

DFS thoughts updated for main slate.

Have a wedding today, not sure I get to london game, back late tonight or tomorrow!
 
Also Drake London over 5.5 catches because wr coach just fired and they’re Trying to build penix confidence after last week so feeding his best wr is the best way to do that
 
1PMs

S. Barkley Rush&Rec Yds O100.5 -112
C. Olave Receptions O5.5 -142
J, Jeudy Receptions O4.5 +120 (like Gibbs/ASB props too)
C. Kirk Rec Yds O39.5 -112
O. Hampton Rec&Rec Yds O91.5 -114 (like Dart rush yds too)
D. Samuel Receptions Rush&Rec Yds 67.5 -114 (like bijan props, maybe mooney)
T. McMillan Rec Yds O63.5 -112


4 PMs

D. Adams Receptions O4.5 -164
CMC Rush&Rec Yds O120.5 -112
P. Mahomes Pass Yds O240.5 -112 (like flowers props too)
C. Williams Pass Yds O227.5 -112 (way too low)
 
I like packers moneyline parlayed with golden over 49.5 receiving yards because he’s there wr 1 on the come up and the cowboys defense is absolutely terrible
 
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