Sunday 1PMs/Main Slate
BUF@NYJ
Bills have a good P/RB matchup
Jets have a great P/RB matchup.
Allen has a great pass potential.
Fields has a great pressure rate situation, and a great pass potential. Hall~ has a great rush potential.
Bills TTR is 2nd (great).
Jets TTR is 18th (meh).
Pace of play is 9th (bad).
O/U Rank is T-3rd (good).
- 6.4K for Cook seems fairly priced, he had 18 opps, 3 targets, my problem is he only saw 56% of snaps and I don't they are in a 2+ possession deficit for any of this game. I think 60% is his cap regardless, as Ty will see more opps playing from behind, and Davis when ahead, plus Allen is always a vulture for him, I'm passing. Allen can almost always be considered, but 7.1K should be his floor price this season, so that's a bargain, my problem with his pass catching options is I don't expect another 46 attempts on Sunday, while coleman had the best metrics, the 3 of them all had 20-24% target share, and 9.4-12.7 aDOTs, each of them had 2 RZ targets as well, if absolutely in need of a stacking option, I may go Palmer, as his price is cheap (really all 3 don't break the bank though). If Knox is out, I guess I'll consider Kincaid, but he only had a 9% target share, I am passing.
The jets played in a neutral script throughout and had the highest run% in the league week1, Hall played just 58% of snaps, but had 23 opps (4 targets), and he is still low 6K range, somehow cheaper than last week, he can be considered. I was ready to write off wilson this week, but barring an unexpected lead on sunday, 22 pass attempts has to move up to 28+ I'd assume, and he had a huge 43% target share, he's someone I will have shares of. Passing on the rest on the pass catching options. Fields is criminally low at 5.7K, his weekly for is 10+ rush attempts and 50+ rush yards imo (I know he hit just 48 last week but I'll still hold to it)
CLV@BAL
Browns have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Ravens have a meh P/RB matchup.
Flacco has a bad pressure rate situation. Sampson~ has a meh rush potential.
Lamar has a meh pressure rate situation, and a meh pass potential. Henry has a good rush potential.
Browns TTR is 24th (bad/last)
Ravens TTR is 1st (great)
Pace of play is 10th (bad), O/U Rank is 5th.
- Flacco threw the ball 45 times in a neutral script, hello ppr production. All 4 pass catchers are relatively cheap (Jeudy/Tillman/Njoku/Fannin), and they all ranged between 6 to 9 targets. I think I'll have a share or two of njoku strictly because I think nobody will go here, every is in love with Fannin (who did play time at slot too last week), but he is also extremely cheap, I want to avoid the ownership him, and get correlation on the other side of it. Jeudy surprisingly had the better aDOT last week, I think you can go in either direction, but I may have more jerry than tillman this week.
Only reason to play Lamar this week is in tourneys where you are just trying to gain leverage of similarly priced Allen/Hurts who are in better situations --- if mass entering, go for it, but I'm passing. I know Henry has slate breaking upside, but I can't justify paying the #1 priced RB who does not get targets on a PPR site, pass. I think Andrews could be a buy-low candidate, just 1 target last week, but still no likely, he played 75% of snaps, is affordable, we know lamar likes to look his way in the redzone, and CIN TEs had 9 targets, and a TD last week.
I don't hate the idea of CLV pass catchers + BAL D.
CHI@DET
Bears have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Lions have a good RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Williams has a good pass potential.
Bears TTR is T-15th.
Lions TTR is 3rd (great).
Pace of play is 16th (last/bad). O/U Rank is 2nd (good).
- start by saying I will be underweight this game, DET was in a pass heavy script last week and still was one of the slower paced teams in terms of seconds per play, how will they be when playing with a lead?! Chicago wasn't much faster either.
While it is a tough matchup, if Roschon is out again, Swift deserves consideration, no RB should be in the 5K range with playing 81% of snaps last week, and having 22 opps (5 targets). If Moore has a low ownership projection he'd be my other target, he tripled Odunzes aDOT (18.8 vs 6.1), and was missed on a possible 20+ yard TD last week. I'll just take note of Kmets aDOT of 14.25 aDOT, and he is somehow cheaper than Loveland despite 90% snap share compared to lovelands 57%, huh!?. Caleb feels like a worse version of fields, but the O/U in this game is at a healthy number, and if he has the same rushing floor, he could be a steal at 5.4K
Gibbs had 19 opps last week, but 10 of those were targets, that is a huge PPR floor, with big time upside, so I have no problem if you have conviction and want to play him. The only thing I'll note, is maybe the time shar wont be a 66/33 split with montgomery if they are playing with a lead, which could also reduce his target floor. ASB's target share doesn't instill confidence, but it was just 1 week, and he still had 2 RZ targets, I think he can be considered, I just don't care for his expensive price. Despite seeing 9 targets, they somehow made laporta's price even cheaper, it wasn't that long ago when he was an alpha at the position, maybe he reverts back? I'd rather be ahead of it then behind, probably my favorite option of the bunch, he is just at a position where sometimes we look to punt or pay premium.
SFO@NOS
49ers have a good P/RB matchup.
Saints have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Purdy has a good pressure rate situation. CMC has a meh rush potential.
Rattler has a good pressure rate situation.
49ers TTR is T-8th (good).
Saints TTR is 20th (meh).
Pace of play is 2nd (great). O/U Rank is T-9th (meh).
- In the 8 weeks to end the year with the Jags, Mac Jones threw all of his TDs (just 8) to his WR1 and WR2, both maintaining an aDOT of 11+ as well. We are awaiting Jennings status, but if he is out, I am firing up pearsall, if he is in, I may actually pivot to jennings due to ownership leverage/capability. Tonges is very cheap, so I get it, but I will be off of him, he still played only about 50%~ of snaps post Kittle injury, if that. CMC had 32 opps, 10 targets... that's roughly must play status and why I can't click henry when CMC sitting cheaper than him.
The saints pace of play was faster than anyone by far, and they were within 1 possession until the end of the 3rd quarter, coupled with Rattler throwing 46 passes, a projected similar script, and ALL saints players being cheap, this could be a sneaky game stack candidate as doing so will allow you to pay up for studs all over. Olave/Shaeed both played over 80% of snaps, and combined for a 54% target share, both are under 5K (prefer olave but up to you). Juwan still have 0 competition at TE, and played 99% of snaps, he had a good TE aDOT of 8+, and a 27% target share, yes please.
NYG@DAL
Giants have a good P/RB matchup.
Cowboys have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
Russ has a great pressure rate situation.
Dak has a bad pressure rate situation, but a great pass potential. Jav. Williams~ has a great rush potential.
Giants TTR is 19th (meh).
Cowboys TTR is T-5th (good).
Pace of play is 4th (good). O/U Rank is 6th.
- Tracy played 74% of snaps, only 15 opps, but 5 were targets, and he doesn't break the bank at all at 5.3K, I don't hate it. Nabers graded out as one of the best WRs last week with a 37.5% target share and an aDOT of 10+, he is pricey but if you like him, feel free. Slayton failed me last week, but he played 97% of snaps --- he better not be turning into the Otton of the Giants (empty routes), feels like there are tons of punt plays where we don't have to go there, but if ronbinson is out, I will have some of him.
You don't like having only 2 RB spots, and filling it with Javonte Williams, but he played 77% of snaps, and had 17 opps (2 targets), his price doesn't look bad either, not sure I go here, but I get it if you want to, his matchup is only that much better from last week, and may be in a favorable script. I doubt I'll have ferguson with Juwan right below him, but he is an interesting pivot off of him/kincaid/strange, but the other guys grade out better unfortunately. He did play 77% of snaps but a 5.8 aDOT, and 0 RZ targets to get me up. Lamb is the alpha that has slate breaking upside I'm considering, he had a 39%+ target share with a healthy 14 aDOT.
LAR@TEN
Rams have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Titans have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Kyren has a meh rush potential.
Ward has a bad pressure rate situation, and a bad pass potential. Pollard has a bad rush potential.
Rams TTR is T-8th (good).
Titans TTR is 23th (meh).
Pace of play is T-11th (bad). O/U Rank is 11th (meh).
- I am mostly looking at this game for one-offs, I don't liek the pace, I don't like the team total. Having said that, Kyren is a poor mans Henry, still a bellcow, still plays a ton, had 20 opps (just 2 targets) last week, but he is 6.3K as opposed to Henrys 8.2K, I think he is playable. You can obviously advocate for puka every week, he had a monster 39% target share, with just a 8.9 aDOT, but Adams was right there in aDOT, while having a 28.5% target share... there's going to be weeks where Adams > Nacua on the fantasy side, and when the price is this far spaced out, give me adams everytime.
Pollard is another cheap bellcow like kyren, he had 19 opps (1 target), and he is below 6K despite playing 89% of snaps... kind of like javonte, I don't really want to click his name, but nobody is, and he is the potential to do well with the opportunity given, so I get it if we/you go here. Ridley is fine at 4.9K, no WR1 should be that cheap, he had a 32% target share, but I sneakily want Ayomanor, he had a 28% target share, a great aDOT of 19, and he is only 3.2K, 200 away from the stone floor.
JAC@CIN
Jaguars have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Bengals have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Lawrence has a bad pass potential.
Burrow has a meh pass potential.
Jags TTR is T-10th.
Bengals TTR is 4th (good).
Pace of play is 6th (meh). O/U Rank is 1st (good).
- Etienne had 19 opps, 3 targets, played over 60% of snaps, is priced in the 5K range, oh and his backup is good, yes please. I actually think an argument in tourneys can be made for any of these 3 WRs to be played because of the pricing. I still prefer Hunter, but BTJ/Brown can make sense. Strange looked like he was going to have a great week (similar to Kittle) I believe all of his catches were in the first quarter?. He had a nice aDOT of 9, and he is cheap enough for one-offs, or bigger game stacks.
Brown is appropriately priced, he is a bellcow that had 24 opps (3 targets) last week, and if they abandon the run because they can't get a forward push, we know he will still be utilized in the pass, no problem going here if you have conviction. The TEs can't be trusted, they played 3, and I am not dart throwing. Small sample, but nice that chase led in targets, and had a much better aDOT than higgins, makes the 2k price difference make sense in either direction you'd go, I'd say don't forget Iosivas if doing a big game stack/multi entering, he is close to floor price, and played 65% of snaps, nobody will be on him.
NEP@MIA
Pats have a great P/RB matchup.
Dolphins have a great P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Maye has a great pressure rate situation, and a great pass potential.
Pats TTR is T-15th.
Dolphins TTR is T-10th.
Pace of play is 1st (great). O/U Rank is T-7th.
- How can we trust Henderson? he did have 11 opps (6 targets) on just 35% of snaps, but I want to see his share of playing time rise before I can trust that with my money. 10 different players have targets last week for the pats, and none hit a 20% target share... while it is hard to trust production without concentration, they are all cheap, and if you hit it right, it could pay off in a big way. Henry and Boutte were the only ones with aDOTs over 9+ (14.6 and 17.1 respectively) and would be the 2 guys I'd target. I will shoutout Douglas, he had a terrible 3.1 aDOT, but he had 3 RZ targets, and if that's Mayes guy, then paying off a 4.3K price really takes just 1 TD catch.
I am not going to give up entirely on this MIA offense based off week1, it is also a bit hard to look at their stats seriously as they were down 3+ possession almost by the start of the 2nd quarter. Achane still did play 73% of snaps, just 11 opps, but still managed 75 total yards. Waddle had a terrible 4 aDOT, but Hill has a nice 14.33, and still managed a 21% target share despite less playing time. Those are the 2 main guys I will be taking in game stacks.
SEA@PIT
Seahawks have a great P/RB matchup.
Steelers have a great P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Darnold has a good pass potential.
Rodgers has a good pressure rate situation. Warren~ has a meh rush potential.
Seahawks TTR is 21st (meh).
Steelers TTR is 14th.
Pace of play is 3rd (great). O/U Rank is 12th (meh).
- JSN might be a set it and forget it, I believe he was by far the highest graded WR of week 1, he had an insane 59% target share, and 13.7 aDOT, and he is just 6K.... he should be much higher. We had a neutral game script throughout, and charb outsnapped walker 58 to 40%, gulp... I think 5.1K for charb is a bit cheap, but he also had 0 targtes, so there's worry on PPR sites. Only argument for Walker is he is still a good back and may not even be owned in a matchup that does look good on paper based off week 1, I don't go here but you can convince me in tourneys.
I know he had Sauce on him, but Metcalfs 4 aDOT on 7 targets doesn't make me happy, having said that, him and Austin were really the only 2 WRs to shine/play, neither break the bank, if we think Rodgers is legit still, they can be worth a look in tourneys, especially austin and his 4.7K price. If looking for a stud and dud lineup, Gainwell at 4.4K is cheapest you'll see this week for a back that could get over 50% of snaps --- I am not doing it. Warren had 13 opps (2 targets), you would like better for 5K range, but if you think they're in a neutral to positive run script, he could be sneaky, last week they were neutral to positive pass script, and he saw less than 50% of snaps, I'd pass. TEs are 3 that play, I am not dart throwing, pass.
Sunday 4PMs/Main Slate (Cont.)
DEN@IND
Broncos have a great RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Colts have a bad P/RB matchup.
Nix has a good pressure rate situation, but a bad pass potential. Harvey~ has a great rush potential.
Jones has a meh pass potential.
Broncos TTR is T-10th.
Colts TTR is 17th.
Pace of play is 8th (bad). O/U Rank is T-9th (meh).
- Dobbins quietly lead this backfield with just a 53% snap share, but no other back hit even 30%, he managed 18 opps (2 targets), and had the goal line work. Based off what these teams did I am more inclined to go with a RB + D stack on both sides than mostly anything else, and doing so doesn't break the bank here. Sutton would be the only other player to consider, he had the best target share (25%), and best aDOT (12) on the team, and almost played 100% of snaps, no other WR hit 60% and I am not dart throwing just yet.
I'll start with Taylor like I did dobbins, it was a run heavy script, and he managed 21 opps (3 targets still), and I expect the opps. to only go up in a closer game, I'd consider RB + D stack if going here. Downs is just unplayable for me, everyone hyped him up for the 2nd year in a row, but Pittman gets more targets (and had a better aDOT, and Pierce gets more playing time, and has a huge aDOT lead on the field (still/just like last year, and it was 20.33 last week). I am not really going these WRs anyways, but don't forget about Pierce in future weeks. Warren has the makings to be legit... he had a 31% target share last week, and 2 red zone targets, his aDOT of 5 isn't the greatest, but on PPR sites, and TEs who don't break the bank, I dont think we care so much, I have no problem clicking him if you have conviction.
CAR@ARI
Panthers have a meh P/RB matchup.
Cardinals have a great RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Young has a bad pass potential.
Kyler has a great pressure rate situation. Conners~ has a good rush potential.
Panthers TTR is 22nd (meh).
Cardinals TTR is T-5th (good).
Pace of play is 13th (bad). O/U Rank is T-7th.
- Panthers were playing in a positive pass script, and Hubbard still managed 21 opps (5 targets), on just 67% of snaps, he still feels cheap at 6K. Maybe Bryce Young sucks, we saw his start to his career, but I don't want to throw away what he did to end the year last year based off week 1. McMillan had strong metrics at 26.5% tartget share, and an 11.5 aDOT, while also playing the most at the position for this team. He is cheap enough to one-off even. If looking to stack this game, or need a punt, one of renfrow or legette are close to floor price, and they got enough utilization/playing time to easily pay off a 3K+ salary. I am passing at TE for now, but want to make note that Sanders had a 13.67 aDOT, if his target/snap share rises over the next few weeks jump on him.
OUT on Conners, in a neutral to positive run script, he saw 66% of snaps, and had just 16 opps (4 targets), those are fine, but he is on the bad side of 6K to be paying this for him. Harrison is one-off'able because of his price, but he isn't someone I am jumping on. Keep Mi. Wilson on your watchlist, he played 2nd most snaps among WRs, is priced near the floor, and had a 15.5 aDOT (14% target share), he can definitely hit one for you and smash his price point. McBride had a terrible just <4 aDOT, but a monster 31% target share, we love to see that on PPR sites, we know the TDs are coming (getting old saying that).
PHI@KCC
Eagles have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Chiefs have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
Hurts has a good pressure rate situation, and a good pass potential. Barkley has a great rush potential.
Pacheco has a great rush potential.
Eagles TTR is 7th (good).
Chiefs TTR is T-10th.
Pace of play is 14th (bad/last). O/U Rank is T-3rd (good).
- Barkley had 23 opps (5 targets), we know he has slate breaking upside, and should really never be off your list. WR looks like a potential goldmine if people are avoiding because of week 1, I know they are a run first kind of mentality, but these 2 WRs play a lot, and there is no Goedert this week, he had a big time 35% target share in week 1, you know what they did in the 8 games without Goedert last year? They combined for a 65% target share (neither under 30%), and had aDOTs of 12 (aj), and 8 (devonte), I prefer to go that route over barkley personally.
Obviously Hollywood had insane metrics with a 42% target share... I think that should disperse a bit, but who shines? I am not entirely sure, all of these guys are cheap, so taking a dart throw could be a good idea, I will probably be on the lower side of hollywood, but give me Thornton in hopes of a HR hit, on his 4 targets (10.5% share), he had a huge aDOT of 28.75. Pacheco only had 8 opps (3 targets), last week and played just 50% of snaps, it worries me, but if you think KC plays with a lead, he could be a good candidate for a game stack with the PHI passing options. Play Kelce if you want too, he can explode, but I think I'd rather find ways to get to mcbride, or go down to warren/laporta/etc.
