Sunday 1PMs/Main Slate
NEP/BUF
Patriots have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Bills have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Zappe has a meh pressure rate situation, and a bad pass potential.
Allen has a good pressure rate situation, and a great pass potential.
Pats TTR is 26th (bad/last).
Bills TTR is 3rd (great).
Pace of play is T-11th. O/U Rank is 10th (meh).
- Injuries - NEP - On D, no CB Jackson (77%) for 3rd week, no S Peppers (95%) for 2nd week. On O, no WR Boutte/Juju, no RB Stevenson, and a few injured/back up Olineman.
- BUF - On D, DT Jones may be returning, DT Phillips (44%) is out for 2nd week, DE Epenesa (41%) is Q.
I almost don't care if the matchup is tough, or is they are big dogs... in the 3 games without Stevenson, Zeke has played at least 83% of snaps, and is averaging 23.33 opps (8.33 targets/g)... he arguably has a double digit PPR floor (which is a minimum of 2x'ing this salary), with more than 24+~ FP upside... I'll be sure to include him yet again. In Zappes 4 full starts, he hasn't really had the same core of WRs... the last 2 weeks however, he has, and Douglas has had a decent 21% target share/9.62 aDOT, and Parker is at 16%/9,9 aDOT... Both are relatively cheap, so if one-offing/salary hunting, I do think they provide for some safety/value, with a lean to douglas first. In Henrys 3 games with Zappe, he has a good 20% target share, and a good TE aDOT of 8,63,,, I want to note that I don't want to go overboard with Pats players... but those are good metrics for 4K... if he is out, Gesicki becomes a punt/salary saving option.
James Cook is coming off a season high 75% of snaps, while he didn't have a target, if you look back to his prior 4 games, he was averaging almost 5~/g... and finished below 20 opps just once in those 5 games,... The Bills TT/Script are to good to fully cross him off your list... while I won't have a ton of him, I think he has to be considered as a tournament pivot off of the popular Etienne (maybe Taylor) in some lineups. Can we even trust Diggs? His price has barely dropped, he has scored 1 TD in his last 6... and in those 5 where he didn't score, he couldn't even get to 10 PPR POINTS!.... if you want to argue he will be the lowest owned, and we know he can break out I can see it, in the 3 games since Knox's return, he does have a 34.5% target share/9.63 aDOT... so the metrics are there... but please double check the weather if you have that opinion, as there is a chance we have a wet/freezing game. In the same span, Davis has 3 0 point games, but also 2 monstrous 20+ point games, he is the ultimate tournament boom or bust play and obviously comes in much cheaper than Diggs...His aDOT in the 3 games is a BIG 25.22... I'm not sure what I'm doing with the passing attack yet, but for me, it'll be just 1 of these 2. Kincaids aDOT is bad at 4... and his target share is just 17%... at 4.9K he is to expensive for me... pass on Knox too.
ATL/CHI
Falcons have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Bears have a great P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Heinicke has a great pressure rate situation, but a meh pass potential. Bi. Robinson has a bad run potential.
Herbert? has a meh run potential.
Falcon TTR is 23th (meh).
Bears TTR is T-12th.
Pace of play is 9th. O/U Rank is 11th (bad).
- Injuries - ATL - On D, DT Street (31%) is out for 3rd week. On O, FB Smith is out for 2nd week.
- CHI - On D, DE Ngakoue (72%) is out for 3rd week. On O, WR Mooney is out, TE Kmet is Q.
I mentioned last week in Heinickes last full start the backfield had 9 total targets, last week they finished with 13, 10 of which were to Bijan. His price barely moved up, yet he is coming of a 22 opp (10 target game), where he played 75% of snaps and this was all in a blowout! I know they mix in Patterson/Allgeier, but he is becoming a bellcow imo and I won't cross him off my list. London looks appealing/cheap, but he only had a 12.5% target share last week, and an aDOT of 9,75... you can argue that that production is at worst matched through a cheaper Pitts...Bijan, and maybe Pitts are most likely the only options I consider here.
PASS on the bears backfield... last time foreman wasn't in, it was a Roschon game, last week it was Herbert... well now Foreman is back, and this may be a 3 headed monster, plus the matchup is tough, plus Fields can vulture too. Moore was clearly hobbled after returning from an ankle injury early in the game... but in the 5 games since Fields return (which includes this bad game), he has had a great 32.5% target share, with a 10,59 aDOT... those are WR1 type metrics, yet he is just 6.6K.... Oh, and Mooneys 16% target share needs to be dispersed (maybe Kmets too), and I'm sure he will, at the least, get a touch of it. Kmet doesn't come cheap, and there are a lot of TEs in his price range that look good too, but IF he suits up you'd think his 21% target share sees a boost too. I don't care for his 5.8 aDOT, and I much rather Moore to him, but I will be mindful to have a share or two of him as well. With no Mooney, St. Brown becomes a possible punt/salary saver option at the floor price.
LVR/IND
Raiders have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Colts have a great P matchup, bad RB matchup.
O'Connel has a good pressure rate situation, but a bad pass potential.
Minshew has a meh pass potential.
Raiders TTR is 16th (meh).
Colts TTR is 8th (good).
Pace of play is T-3rd. O/U Rank is T-7th (meh).
- Injuries - LVR - On O, no TE Horsted/Mayer, RB Jacobs is doubtful.
- IND - On D, S Blackmon (100%) is out, CB Moore (100%) is Q. On O, T Smith is Q. RB Moss is out, TE Olgetree is out. WR Pittman should be returning.
There is NO WAY you can play Adams UNLESS doing a IND game stack... because if the Raiders play in another neutral to positive run script, they will run on 1st/2nd, and 3rd and short for the entirety of at least a half.... BUT, if they fall behind, Adams can smash.. in his 8 games with O'connell, he has a big 34% target share/11.26 aDOT, again WR1 overall numbers, and I bet he will barely be owned after his one catch performance... and they are underdogs... Meyers at 5.3K seems fine, but there are much better options at that price, pass. Hooper is an interesting punt play, he played 89% of snaps last week, finishing with a 16% target share, but just a 3.33 aDOT... although at floor price of 2.5K, the aDOT doesn't matter... 3+ catches is a payoff, and again if we think IND plays with a lead, we should see 34+~ pass attempts. The last guy we need to mention here is Zamir White... with Jacobs most likely missing again, he is in for an easy path to 70%+ snaps, and 21+ opps, the arguement against him is 2 fold... his ownership will be huge at 5.1K... and if we think they play from behind, and we like Adams/Hooper, we can't really be playing all the raiders.... but it is tough not to love him.
Taylor coming back from his finger injury saw 60% of snaps/19 opps... the 1 target, in a game where they fell behind, is concerning, but I'm going to chalk that up to the injury that hopefully should be healthier... he has no competition for RZ work with Moss out, and he should be in your player pool. Downs is a no go for me... in every game, even last week with no pittman, Pierce at a minimum grades out just as good, and he is significantly cheaper. Pittman seems very expensive, but he is just like ASB, an aDOT below 10, but a target share over 30%... he can go 10+/100+ any day, so he has to be considerd... but there are at least red flags... one being the return of injury, and the possible negative pass script. I'm fine with Pierce as a punt play with his massive aDOT, and being below 4K, but I'd save it for a lineup or 2 max, unless doing an onslaught game stack. Pass on TEs unless no pittman, then they become interesting salary savers too.,
LAR/NYG
Rams have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
Giants have a good P/RB matchup.
Stafford has a great pressure rate situation, and a good pass potential. Kyren has a great run potential.
Taylor? has a meh pass potential. Barkley? has a bad run potential.
Rams TTR is T-5th (good).
Giants TTR is T-18th (meh).
Pace of play is 10th. O/U Rank is T-5th.
- Injuries - LAR - On D, LB Jones (93%) is Q. On O, T Jackson/WR Nacua are Q.
- NYG - On D, CB Banks (90%+) is Q. On O, T Neal is out, TE Cager is doubtful, and WR Robinson is Q.
Do we just lock in Kyren (and CMC) and for the rest of your lineup you figure it out? That's a legit take and maybe I do build a few lineups this way. Aside from last weeks 0 target (2 to 3 possession lead) he has averaged 5.5 targets/g since his return to go along with 22.25 carries/g.... his floor is probably 25 touches, the matchup is as good as it gets, they are faves, he has to be considered. When it comes to Kupp vs Nacua, they both are almost identical, but Nacua has had the better aDOT since the bye in which both played (5 games), and since they are similarly priced, I lean him over Kupp.. if he is out, Kupp should SMASH. I want to point out. In these same 5 games, Demarcus Robinson has become the WR3... leading the others in aDOT at 13.46, wtih a good enough target share of 15.5%, but in the last 3 of those 5 games, he has solidified that position, hitting 86/95/93% of snaps (even in Atwells return), and in those 3 weeks his numbers increased to 14.68, and 18.5% target share... at 4.6K, he may actually be my favorite piece of this offense. Higbee is cheap, plays enough, and runs a ton of routes... so at 3.3K, I think he will always grade out as a good play... but I feel like he just doesn't have tournament upside, and I may just punt down to 2.5K options that are being vaulted into starting roles.
Barkley has been under 7K just twice this year... last week, and now this week... and he is coming off a 29 opp (6 target) game... I know the matchup is tough, but we never see bellcows this cheap, and we are talking tournaments, it helps that 4 of those targets came after the replacement of DeVito last week.... he also had 29/25 opps in the last 2 full starts from Taylor earlier this year never having fewer than 4 targets... he may actually be a smarter pivot off the Cooks/Taylors (and maybe Etienne!). I don't know if I prefer him to Kmet, but it's worth nothing that Waller had a 19% target share with Taylor in that second half, and an aDOT well over 10... the offense definitely gets more potential with Taylor at the helm, as his aDOT is almost 2 full yards better than DeVitos... Like every week, the NYG WRs can be a source of value, as they are all almost priced at the floor... Slayton plays 90%+ of snaps, has an aDOT of 12.38/target share of 16% since the bye, the aDOT increases to 16 with Tyrod at the helm, I think he is a fine play too.
ARI/PHI
Cards have a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Eagles have a great P/RB matchup.
Conner has a good run potential.
Hurts has a great pass potential. Swift has a great run potential.
Cards TTR is T-21st. (meh).
Eagles TTR is 2nd (great).
Pace of play is 2nd. O/U Rank is 2nd (good).
- Injuries - ARI - On D, LB Woods (78%) is out for 2nd week, DE Ledbetter (64%) is out. On O, no WR Hollywood/TE Swaim.
- PHI - On D, 3rd week w/o CB Slay (97%), LB Cunningham (82%) is doubtful, CB Maddox may be returning. On O, no TE Okwuegbunam.
Conner is a cheap bell cow in a tough matchup, and he has seen his playing time be reduced in some of these semi blow outs... so I'm off of him... He has only had empty-less targets the last 2 weeks, but w/o hollywood, Michael Wilson has seen the most playing time of the 3 WRs (Wilson/Moore/Dortch), is 2nd in target share (9.5%), but first in aDOT at 15.71... We've obviously seen this defense let up plays to WRs... I think him and/or Dortch are the options for that. McBride has an insane 25.5% target share in these last 2 games, with a meh aDOT of 5.26, which is actually lower than his numbers since taking over in week 8... he is priced as the TE2, but on PPR sites, he has arguably the highest floor out there, in a good matchup!
Swift feels weird, he isn't cheap, he has had his PPR value sapped the past handful of weeks, and we know he will never score a TD on an end zone PI/any tackle within the 2~ yard line... Having said that, it was encouraging seeing him run multiple times within the 10, was once tackled at the 1, and finished 8 yards away from the bonus.. on 0 catches he was extremely close to 24+ FPs last week... and the matchup couldn't be better I'm not in love with him, but I understand if you want to go here. Hurts is in such a good spot, already mentioned above, but he has massive rush TD equity (which is a boost on DFS formats, as rushing is 6, passing is 4), we know the defense has a hard time keeping teams off the scoreboard, and he is surrounded by monsters that can score at any point. In the L3 games (when Goedert returned) Brown has an insane 36% target share with an 11.09 aDOT... I prefer him to Smith, as I think their prices should be a bit more gapped. Smith's numbers are 21.5%/10.45 aDOT. Goedert is interesting, but he is priced similarly to Kmet, and they are essentially the same person, as he has a 23.5% target share, with a 4.27 aDOT, I think they both offer safety, but a guy like Waller (maybe Likely) could be smarter tourney pivots.
NOS/TBB
Saints have a meh P/RB matchup.
Bucs have a great RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Carr has a good pressure rate situation. Kamara has a meh run potential.
Baker has a great pressure rate situation. R. White has a meh run potential.
Saints TTR is 15th.
Bucs TTR is 9th.
Pace of play is T-6th. O/U Rank is T-7th (meh).
- Injuries - NOS - On D, DE Roach (37%) out for 4th week. On O, RB Miller is more towards doubtful, Kamara Q. T Ramczyk out for 4th week.
- TBB - On D, CB Davis (100%~), and LB Barrett (62%) are out.
Kamara can obviously get there from a PPR perspective, but I don't see them having success on the ground, and if he doesn't get 8+ targets (which he has only once in his L5), he will most certainly failed at this price, I'll be underweight at best. I think Olave is in for a monster performance. The script projects passing, we know TBB needs to be thrown on (and they are without a CB/one of better LBs), and in Olaves 4 games since the bye, in which he got hurt in at least one of them/didn't finish the game out, he still managed a 27.5% target share, with a good 12.94 aDOT, the only game he didn't surpass 100 yards was in the 28-6 win over Carolina... I do want to point out, I think Shaheed is a fine play at 4.6K, last week he hit 82% of snaps, his season high, and had a 22.5% target share/14.89 aDOT --- can Carr get 300+ 3+ in a positive script? Even 250, 2, 3.5x's his salary...hmm. We can't play Taysom, he just has been worthless the last 2 weeks, and still is priced very high... can they role out a whacky game flow again and shock us? Sure, but I'll take my chances Sunday.... J. Johnson seems cheap at 3.4K, if you think NOS plays from a deficit, he can be included in game stacks... in 2 of 3 games post bye in which NOS was in obvious passing scripts, he's averaged 68% of snaps, 16% target share, and a good 8.41 aDOT.
If you want a pivot/slight step down in price off CMC/Kyren, R. White is your guy... he is the definition of consistency, scoring in 7 of his last 8 (averaging 1/g), he plays 80%+ of snaps, and has PPR safety as he is 4th among all RBs in routes run per dropback, the opponent rank vs RBs looks bad, but the DVOA matchup grades out well, he has to be considered imo. Over the last 5 weeks, Godwin has quietly been just as good as Evans, and is much cheaper... he has a 29% target share/10.07 aDOT, compared to Evans 28.5%/12.86 aDOT... he just isn't appropriately priced at 6.1K for those metrics, and think he is a good value play, and definitely smarter than Evans. I like Otons aDOT, I like his price, I like his routes run per dropback, I like his snap count... but he just does NOT get targeted.... I know the day I fade him he will breakout, but you feel like an idiot clicking him and he doesn't get to 9+ like he should, idk what to do with him just yet.
SFO/WAS
49ers have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Commanders have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Purdy?? has a good pressure rate situation, and a great pass potential. CMC has a great run potential.
Brissett has a bad pressure rate situation, and bad pass potential.
49ers TTR is 1st (great).
Commanders TTR is T-21st (meh).
Pace of play is 16th (meh/last). O/U Rank is 1st (good).
Injuries - SFO - On D, DE Armstead (66%) is out for 4th week, DT Davis (26%) is out for 2nd week, S Brown (100%) is out, CB Thomas (56%) is Q.
- WAS - On D, LB Davis (86%) is out for 3rd week, S Butler (82%), CB St-Juste (97%), and CB Fuller (97%) are all out. On O, C/T Larsen/Leno out for 3rd weeks. Howell should be in line to start again with Brissett Q but leaning towards doubtful, no WR Jennings.
This was already one of the worst passing defenses in the league, and now they are down both CBs, and their S.... how the fuck are they stopping this offense? My fear with CMC is a blown script where the early TDs are through the air... and you are paying an arm and a leg for him... can we see a performance under 28~ points from him? (how ridiculous is that statement....) I could... I want this passing attack... in the 7 games post the bye, Deebo/Aiyuk/Kittles numbers are as follows, 25%/21%/22%, 6.76/13.15/10.02 ... Kittle actually has impressive numbers for a TE when compared to WRs... and he is much cheaper than the elites as he is 5.6K, you'd take over 20% target share and double digit aDOT at WR in this price range ALL DAY... I like him, and I also like Aiyuk as he is cheaper than Deebo and has a HUGE edge in aDOT vs a broken defensive backfield.
Do we need a bring back option for SFO? probably not... but I want to point out, despite getting blown out several times this year, WAS hasn't really sat McLaurin out for rest, as he consistently plays 85%~ of snaps, and he is almost the cheapest he has been all year at 5.5K, he has a 21.5% target share/11.55 aDOT... those metrics are similar to Kittle above, where I said you take WRs in these circumstances all day, and his numbers have been trending better over his L4 --- 23.5%/14.65. I'm for it... If you want to get cute with Samuel/Dotson, or Gibson/Br. Robinson, so be it. Also not getting cute with Thomas, his number with Howell were so bad, pass.
CAR/JAC
Panthers have a meh P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Jaguars have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
Chubba has a bad run potential.
Beathard has a great pressure rate situation.
Panthers TTR is 25th (bad).
Jaguars TTR is T-10th.
Pace of play is T-6th. O/U Rank is T-11th (bad).
Injuries - JAC - On O, no QB Lawrence, no WR Kirk, WR Z. Jones is Q. T Robinson is Q to make his return from a 5 game hiatus.
- CAR - On D, CB Hill (50%) is out. LB/CB Luvu(100%)/Horn(100%) are Q.
I think Jags did is a bit smoke and mirrors, as they've given up a lot of FPs to positional players, but there DVOA metrics are better than they've performed and a matchup vs CAR may right the ship... I've been burned picking the wrong one-off on this team since the thielen breakout days (feels like ages ago), and it has continued as recently as last week (mingo over chark...)... the last 5 games these guys all played, Thielen grades out the best with a 26.5% target share/9,75 aDOT, but when factoring in price, I'll still back Mingo and his 19.5%/13.11 aDOT... the metrics are good, but the results have been mad, he actually runs a route on 83% of dropbacks too, which is really good, and above players like Godwin/McLaurin/Metcalf/London/Diontae/Cooper/Hopkins.... I know it's coming, but idk if I do it again. Pass at TE, I understand the appeal of Hubbard, as he is a bellcow under 6K, but he has lost some of his PPR appeal in recent weeks, and has topped 100 yards rushing just once this year, even with a TD, he didn't come close to 3X'ing this salary last week.
DK did us no favors with the pricing of Etienne, despite poor performances since week 8.... but this is a matchup vs CAR, and in 7 of those games since week 8, JAX has lost 5 times... they are faves this sunday, and returning one of their better OLlineman vs a terrible run D... I think he can be played. I'm off Ridley with Beathard/negative projected pass script, but I will note, in Beathards 2 half games, he targeted Engram roughly 11 times (40%+ target share) on his 25~ pass attempts... that's massive, and we still have no Kirk/maybe no Jones... He is an interesting tourney play/ppr safety/upside.
MIA/BAL
Dolphins have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Ravens have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Tua has a good pressure rate situation. Achane? has a good run potential.
Lamar has a bad pressure rate situation. Gus Bus has a great run potential.
Dolphins TTR is 12th.
Ravens TTR is 5th (good).
Pace of play is 15th (meh). O/U Rank is 3rd (good).
Injuries - BAL - On D, LB/CB/S Phillips/Stephens/Hamilton are Q. On O, WR Flowers is Q.
- MIA - On D, LB Baker (87%) is out for 4th week. CB/CB/S Ramsey/Howard/Holland are all Q. On O, T Hunt is doubtful, RB Mostert is doubtful, and WR Waddle is out.
In Wk3 without Waddle, Hill had a 39.5% target share, with an 11.29 aDOT... he finished 9-157-1, and he only played 53% of snaps (it was the DEN blowout...)... we know this game should be at least competitive, and I don't see how he easily doesn't have a guaranteed floor of 10+ 100+, he practiced fully to end the week with no injury designation.. fire him up, oh, and to add to this.. last week without waddle in the 2nd half, he had 11 targets..... I don't have issues with Achane, especially if they play from behind, but I do think if mass entering, maybe Wilson takes the Mostert role of goal line work... at 4.1K, if he 10 opps~ + a TD will more than get you there....I'll just mentioned Smythe, as he is 2.9K, and had 5 targets... he plays a ton, and without Waddle.. if he goes even 4-35 it works for you...
I can't play gus bus as his ppr value is so bad... if you think MIA manages a lead in this one, Hill looks ok at 4.7K, he had 3 targets last week (in a blow out) but I wouldn't go overboard either. OBJ/Bateman/Agholor have all really been splitting the WR2/3/4 work evenly... Agholor can be crossed off as the least utilized in both aDOT/Target share. OBJ is slightly better than Bateman, but his price is slightly higher, so I think they're interchangeable if you want cheap, they are 16.5%/14.5%, target share and 18.44/15.71 aDOT both are good for 4Ks and 3Ks respectively. The other dog is Flowers... he has a really good target share at 26%, and his aDOT is fine for 5Ks at 8.12... I have no problems going here, especially with injury concerns/GTD suppressing his ownership. Likely may be a bit to expensive, as the people in his range have a better target share, but his aDOT of 7.88 is mostly better... I'll probably pass though.
TEN/HOU
Titans have a great P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Texans gave a great P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Tannehill? has a meh pressure rate situation.
Mills? has a great pass potential. Singletary has a bad run potential.
Titans TTR is T-18th (meh).
Texans TTR is T-7th (good).
Pace of play is 13th. O/U Rank is T-7th (meh).
Injuries - TEN - On D, DT Simmons (81%)/CB Fulton (87%) are out for 4th week, DT Peko (39%) is out for 3rd week, LB Gibbens (66%)/S Hooker (98%) are out for 2nd week, Bohanna (30%) is out. On O, no WR Ikhine.
- HOU - On D, DE Greenard (63%)/S Ward (73%) are out. DT/DE/CB Rankins/Anderson/Nelson are Q. On O, no WR Dell/TE Quitoriano.
I want to like Stroud, but in HOUs wins, his pass attempts are typically lower, they've been able to establish a better run game since Singletary has taken over, and it is not like he is cheap, so I probably won't play him, but it doesn't mean I don't like his weapons that are now with no Dell... I want to point out, when he got hurt in Wk13, Collins finished with an insane 46% target share/12.25 aDOT.... he is a priority for me, I think Brown can be considered, and while Woods is cheap, he has really been an after in most of the 2nd half of the season, passing. I think Schultz is fine for game stacks, but I like other TEs in his price range, so I won't really one-off of him like Collins.
I can't play Henry in a game that TEN isn't projected to lead. Spears has now outsnapped him in 3 of the last 4, and is coming of a 15 opp (6 target) game, if you think they play from behind and has actually had at least 4 targets in 4 of 5 Tanny games to start the season... so it's pretty safe to say that can be today's floor. I wouldn't go ham, but if mass entering, throwing him in 1 or 2 I think is fine. I said it last week, but Hopkins at 6K feels ridiculous, with Tannehill he has a 27.5% target share/13 aDOT... I do think they should be in a passing script, Last weeks script failed, as it was pretty neutral and TEN won't abandon the run because of that, and I do think he has bonus incentives to perform in these last 2 games for anyone who follows/believes in that. Chig is reasonably priced, he saw the biggest bump with no Ikhine, and with Tanny he has a 17.5% target share I'm fine with him either way.
Sunday 4PMs/Main Slate (Cont.)
PIT/SEA
Steelers have a good P/RB matchup.
Seahawks have a meh P/RB matchup.
Najee/Warren has a good run potential.
Geno has a meh pressure rate situation.
Steelers TTR is T-18th (meh).
Seahawks TTR is T-10th.
Pace of play is 5th. O/U Rank is 9th (meh).
Injuries - PIT - On D, 2nd week w/o S/S Fitzpatrick (78%+)/Thompson(56%+), LB Roberts (55%) is out.
- SEA - On D, S Adams (84%+) is out for 3rd week, LB Brooks (73%)/DE Edwards (37%) are out. CB Witherspoon (94%+) is Q/GTD. On O, RB/WR Walker/Metcalf are Q. T Peters is out.
Rudolph finished with a 9.22 aDOT last week, more than 2 full yards higher than Pickett on the season... Pickens finished with a 24% target share/17.83 aDOT, if he can maintain that number, 5.3K is a steal. Diontae wasn't to far behind at 20%/12.6, but I'm not going overboard here and will most likely stick to Pickens... I will say A-Rob all year has just been playing and not doing much but he had a 16% target share, and is almost floor price... not saying I love him, but as a dart/salary saver in a lineup, I get it. Pass at Te. I know it was a blowout, but Najee now has 2 straight games with 0 targets, 3 of his last 5... the matchup is good, but imo he needs 100+ rushing to pay off, can he do it? Yes, but Warren has the same opportunity floor imo, and is coming off b2b 6 target games (24% target share last week), he is just much safer on PPR sites and they are almost the same.
I'm off the RBs here, I don't like the time share, the matchup, and T Peters being out... In the 12 games with Geno, Metcalf/Lockets Target share is practically identical, but Metcalf has a slightly better aDOT of 12.86 vs 10.43... but if going here, I'd rather have the savings of Lockett (who is also coming off his highest target game of the season). JSN is to expensive, pass. Pass at TE, they start 3, and Fant had his season high in snap count (76%) and finished the game with how many targets? 0.
LAC/DEN
Chargers have a great P/RB matchup.
Broncos have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Stick has a good pass potential.
Stidham? has a bad pressure rate situation, but good pass potential.
Chargers TTR is 24th (meh).
Broncos TTR is 14th.
Pace of play is T-6th. O/U Rank is 13th (bad).
Injuries - LAC - On D, DT Williams (42%)/LB Murray Jr. (94%) are doubtful. On O, no WRs Allen/Palmer
- DEN - On D, LB Browning (67%) is out. On O, no WR Sutton/TE Dulcich. WRs Jeudy/Mims are Q.
I feel weird saying to fade Ekeler, he is a cheap as ever, and had 19 opps lat week (4 targets)... he really isn't a bad play, and the 2 best WR options are out. I'm not sure what to do with him just yet. The WR options are very cheap for being thrusted into a WR1/2 role, so I have no issues if you want to value play Johnston/Erickson/Guyton, as 20% of Sticks target share went to Palmer who is now gone. Who I do want the most is Everett, he is 3.5K, and has had a 25.5% target share with Stick, his aDOT sucks at 2.88, but he should be in line for 8+ targets... and even 6 for 35~ 3x's.
We have a projected positive run script, but this is the broncos... I usually like Javonte in this scenario, but his 39% snap share last week was a real concern for me. I'll have a touch of him, but will be underweight. In Stidhams 2 starts last year, he had an aDOT over 9, which is 2 full yards more than Russell this year... and he also had some rushing upside averaging 7-42~ on the ground... at 4.8K, I really think he can pay off. He supported Adams to a 31% target share/14.25 aDOT... while I think B. Johnson/Lil Jordan can be cheap punts if no Mims, I actually really like Jeudy.
CIN/KCC
Bengals have a great RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Chiefs have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
Browning has a meh pressure rate situation, and a meh pass potential. Mixon has a great run potential.
Mahomes has a great pass potential. Pacheco has a good run potential.
Bengals TTR is 21st (meh).
Chiefs TTR is 4th (good).
Pace of play is 14th (meh). O/U Rank is 4th.
Injuries - CIN - On D, 2nd week w/o DT Reader (57%). On O, WR Chase is Q.
- KCC - On D, 4th week w/o S Cook (79%). On O, no WR Toney/Moore, no RB McKinnon. RBs Helaire/Pacheco Q/expected to play.
In the 3 games CIN WRs all started with Browning, none really look appealing. Chase at 7.6K is to expensive with his 19.5 Target share/7.95 aDOT, Higgins 14.5% target share seems to low, but he does have a big 17.4 aDOT and the one I'd lean the most, but don't love it at 6.5K... and Boyd has the worst target share, and an aDOT of 4.4, gross. Huston over 3K, with just a 12% target share, pass. The only guy I have interest in is Mixon.. if they keep this game close, he could see 24+ opps, with a 4~ target floor, we've seen the KCC side offensively sputter this year, and the matchup is great.
Chiefs fell out of the script most thought they'd be in, and Pacheco ended up with just 15 opps (4 targets)... In a vacuum I do think he is still a good play with 20+ opp/4+ target potential, but at almost 7K, pass. In the first week w/o Toney/Moore Rice finsihed with a 29.5% target share/7.33 aDOT... those are good metrics and he can be considered, but I want to add Watson was at 14.5%/9,83, and is close to floor price... I like him, and can't wait to be pissed off when MVS hits one. Can we believe on 7 targets last week, Kelce had a negative 1.43 aDOT.... he really is not worth his price, but he is also the cheapest he has been in probably 3+ years... the matchup is good, and I'll be so upset with myself if I didn't have even a bit of him on the day he goes off (if that even exists anymore).
