DFS/Props Week 16 Discussion

ScopeY

ScopeY

Pretty much a regular
"For those that don't remember, I'll try to get down general matchup information from a dfs/prop perspective as best as I can, but please jump in whether it is to add input, correct a mistake of mine, or if something is unclear. I'm sure all 3 are going to happen.

When reading the summaries I'll typically use great, good, meh, bad, those 4 terms are sectioned between ranked 32nd-25th, 24th-17th, 16th-9th, 8th-1st. Ie. Ekeler has a great RB matchup, because the opposing defense is ranked somewhere between 25th-32nd in DVOA vs the run (something like that).

Edit: I do sort pressure rate/asr, as well as line play/aly in top 1-5,6-10, and 23-27, 28-32, so you may see me say Great/Good, and Meh/Bad, 11-22 are not stated. My ranges (which may adjust) for Great/Good/Ignore/Meh/Bad TT's and O/U's will be this.
>24.5 >50
>23 >46.5
20-23 43-46.
<20 <43
<17 <40"

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As you can see from this, week 15/season numbers;

- WRs were used 20% of the time in the FLEX position, 50% RB, 30% TE --- season total is now 63%/25%/12%, WR/RB/TE.
- RB + Def stack were 0% of the time. --- season total is now 17% of the time.
- At least a QB Team Stack was used 100% of the time --- season total is now 96% of the time.
- QB Game stack was used 20% of the time. --- season total is now 39% of the time.
- QB + WR + RB Stack was used 10% of the time. --- season total is now 7% of the time.
- DEF was paid up for 6 times, mid 30%, punted 10%. --- season total is now 24%/43%/33%, high/mid/low pricing on the season.

The cut/cash line for this weeks tourney was 148.08 --- (Wk2 138.30, Wk3 165.18, Wk4 145.84, Wk5 155.38, Wk6 143, Wk7 133.8, Wk8 148.44, Wk9 138.02, Wk10 153.96, Wk11 145.72, Wk12 148.76, Wk13 142.2, Wk14 146.52).

One of the few times I didn't cash at all... it's going to happen, especially when 2 of the top 3 RBs (by far) were over 33%+ owned (CMC/Kyren, who ended up totaling 50% of the cash line total). Zeke/DJ Moore/B. Hall really burned me.

Lets have a good week!
 
Thursday Night/Showdown Slate

NOS/LAR

Saints have a good P/RB matchup.
Rams have a good RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Carr has a great pressure rate situation.
Stafford has a great pressure rate situation, but a meh pass potential. Kyren has a good rush potential.
Pace of play is 5th overall.

Injuries - NOS - On D, 4th week w/o S Maye (100%), 3rd week w/o DE Roach (37%+). CB Johnson (35+) is Q/didn't practice. On O, WR/RB Olave/Miller are Q.
- LAR - On O, T Noteboom is Q/didn't practice.

I just want/need to start with Kyren.. Since his return, Kyren's opps in his 4 games has just ballooned, with 22 (6 targets), 26 (5 targets), 29 (4 targets), 34 (7 targets).... obviously he can't sustain this upward movement, but a floor of 22+ opps/4+ targets seems easy to say. While his floor is so secure, you can argue that there are actually a handful of players who can beat his ceiling... I am definitely more of a contrarian player... but I'd rather take stands more often than not because when they are right, you can really boom in a tourney, and I'm trying to take one down, not cash. And my stand here, may be to actually try to get the abundance of players around him that may actually be forcefully underweight with all going towards Kyren, but let's get to it.

In the last 6 weeks, when NOS has won (3 times), Kamara has averaged 17 opps (4.67 targets), 51.67% of snaps, 13.67 PPR FPs. When NOS has lost (3 times), he has averaged 19.3 opps (6.67 targets), 66% of snaps, 19.67 PPR FPs.... I obviously say this because if you think Rams win, or build lineups resembling this, I would be overweight Kamara in those lineups... if you think Saints win, or build lineups resembling this, I would be underweight Kamara in those lineups. Taysom is kind of boom or bust, and he isn't crazy expensive for the type of ceiling he could produce, but coming back from injury last week, he played just 19% of snaps and had 2 opps.... he just has a super low floor, and his touches typically aren't receptions... so without TDs, he's a dud... I'll probably be underweight, but I guess in non kamara lines, I wouldn't mind having a share or 2 of him. 2 things at TE. 1), the last 3 weeks, Foster Moreau has outplayed Juwan Johnson, and as had a better target share of 11.5%, vs 9%, and he comes in at half the price (2K vs 4K), it's hard not to pick Foster over him... and the second one is jimmy graham... while he will only get 1 to 2 targets a game, and he is only $400 cheaper than moreau... those 1 to 2 targets will be in the endzone (not redzone), so he if catches just 1, he turned your 1.6K salary into a 4.5X+.... just know, the other possiblity is a 0... I actually don't hate the idea though, and we need salary relief to get this mosnters up top. I'm not entirely sure how they are going to use the WR3/4/5 positions with both Olave/Shaheed in, as we don't have a sample of it with Kirkwood/Bowden/Perry in and these 2 with no Thomas... I'm inclined to think it will be Perry like we saw in week 10, but Kirkwood was not active, and they both played 40%~ last week with no Olave... but on the flipside it's been Perry who has seen his snaps drop, while Bowden has been pretty steady over 60%.... I am going to just hunt aDOT... and that goes Perry>Kirkwood>Bowden. I don't hate Shaheed as a player, but he is priced kind of closely to Olave, and Olave is not only an aDOT king, but commands the target share in this offense... I would try to pay up for him in every scenario if active.

I've mentioned my thoughts above about Kyren, and if he is to fail it is either because the passing game succeeds/gets all the TDs, or the saints handle them (not as likely)... but that's the scenarios in which I'll be constructing most of my lineups.... Kupp/Nacua in their 9 games together are identical players and Nacua comes in a bit cheaper... I'll try my best to have both, but I do lean nacua a touch more....if you look at just the last 4 games, he has actually had a much better aDOT compared to Kupp. I came in here ready to say I think we have to take a hard pass on Robinson with Tutu coming back... but really he was playing more than him since the start of week 12...taking out last weeks game when Tutu didn't play, Robinson has a 16.5% target share, and a better aDOT than the big 2 above of, at 13.76... now when looking at price, you can get Tutu at almost half the price (5.4K to 2.8K), so I think there's a conversation to be had, but I will pick whomever I need based off salary in some lineups, as I don't mind either. I know Higbee can maybe get his way there with TDs... but since the bye he has a bad 3.33 aDOT, and just a 9% target share, PASS... robinson/tutu/nos TEs not named Hill/nos WR3s+ are all cheaper than him...
 
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Saturday/2 Game Slate

CIN/PIT

Bengals has a meh P/RB matchup.
Steelers have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
Browning has a meh pass potential.
Najee/Warren have a good rush potential.
Bengals TTR is 2nd.
Steelers TTR is 3rd (meh).
Pace of play is 15th (meh), O/U Rank is 2nd (bad) of the 2.

- Injuries - CIN - On D, DT Reader (57%+) is out, there's a chance CB Taylor-Britt (100%~) is coming back after his 4 game hiatus. On O, WR Chase is out.
PIT - On D, S Fitzpatrick (100%)/S Thompson (70%~ last 5 weeks) are out. On O, QB Pickett is out.

Chase has actually yet to miss a game this year until now, but in the 4 games Higgins missed... Irwin has played 80%+ of snaps, with the best aDOT of the 3 (11.7 --- although Higgins can still arguably see more, as that's not Chase's role), and an ok target share of 14.5%, I mentioned him, because I think most go to Boyd, which I still think is fine, but in tournaments... I'll go even lower to the floor price, and try to gain some leverage in a spot where I think either can beat the other. In Brownings 3 full starts, Chase commanded a 20% target share, so the floors rise/value is on all players. Higgins target share hasn't been great for his price at 14.5%, but he has a huge aDOT of 17.4... so I'm comfortable with him too, PIT is missing like 3 S's in their lineups. CIN plays 4 TEs, Hudson has a 12% target share/5.83 aDOT, which is fine, but his price could be better, and he hasn't hit over 36% of snaps since his week 9 return... I'm passing, especially when you look below.... Mixon is pretty range-y and he is almost the same price as Ekeler/Cook, who arguably have a higher floor/ceiling combo... in 2 of his last 4 starts he hasn't had more than 13 opps.... while his backup (Brown) has not had less than 9 in any of his last 3 starts... If he doesn't score a TD, he could hurt you at this price. Brown is the same price as Najee/Warren, and I don't see him beating them in total opps/ceilings, so passing too.

Not really sure what to expect from Rudolph, but he has to be better than Trubisky... right? From a target share/aDOT perspective, Diontae/Pickens are very similar, but diontae does command a better target share, their prices are similar, and we know Pickens is a bad play away from a blowup/talking.... I'm fine going either direction, but I obviously lean Diontae more... I find it hard to click A-rob/Austin/etc... when I can get Irwin (even Iosivas) in CIN with a higher projected target share... Freiermuth has seen his snaps increase in every game since the return from injury (hitting 76% last week), he is practically the same price as hudson, but plays twice as much, and hasn't seen lower than 4 targets in his last 4 (Hudson hasn't hit over 5 in his last 4...)... Najee saw a season low 34% of snaps last week but it was in a blowout loss... you can make an argument there is some risk something like this can happen again as they're starting their QB3... he also has less PPR safety than Warren in general/neutral scripts, it is a no brainer that Warren is the better option in this slate, as one hasn't seen fewer than 3 targets almost all year, and worst case is in a 5050 split (warren), and the other hasn't hit over 3 targets in his last 5 (hitting 0 twice...).

BUF/LAC

Bills have a great P/RB matchup.
Chargers have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Allen has a great pass potential. J. Cook has a great run potential.
Stick has a meh pressure rate situation. Ekeler has a meh run potential.
Bills TTR is 1st (great).
Chargers TTR is 4th (bad).
Pace of play is 3rd (good). O/U Rank is 1st of the 2.

- Injuries - BUF - On D, DT Jones/CB Elam may be returning from IR. DT Phillips is out, S Hyde (91%+) is out for 2nd week. DE Epenesa is Q to return after 1 week hiatus.
- LAC - On D, LB Bosa may be returning. CB Bassey (44%)/DT Williams (41%) are Q. On O, C Clapp is out. WR Allen is out.

We have a team with great matchups all over, the best TT by over a TD, and averaging 29.25 points over its last 4 vs NYJ/PHI/KCC/DAL ..... we absolutely need pieces of this offense to succeed today. While we wish Cooks snaps were a bit better, at least he crossed over 50% last week (first time since week 9), and he is being much more utilized per snap... hitting 28 opps (3 targets) last week, and being over at least 20 opps in 3 of his last 4... I can easily say he will be a majority play for me, I not only think most go here, but then it stops you from Ekeler + a CIN or PIT back, plus Allen can vulture, and the last time Cook went TD-less he just got over 2'xing this salary. I'll have him in my pool but will be underweight. The backups to cooks are unplayable, they've actually been playing 3 behind him, and while Latavius is the RB2, Ty Johnson has seen an increased role, Allen only had 4 second half pass attempts last week, and taking away 2 throwaways/2 penalties.. he had 13 pass attempts in total... Diggs received 38.5% of them, he was targeted early and often but then the game got out of hand, I know this can easily happen again but I'll take my chances that BUF doesn't lead by 3+ possessions before halftime, give me diggs. I know it is so scary clicking Gab the Babe's name, but he really is a tournament sleeper week in and week out. He is definitely priced incorrectly as the WR3 on the entire slate (due to injuries), but over the last 4 weeks he has a monstrous 18.93 aDOT, and his target share is good enough at 12%, I can see him going under owned. He is still seeing more snaps that I thought, but Shakir is a no go, as the return of Knox has limited him to 1 target a game, pass. It doesn't look like Knox has hurt his playing time, yet, and his target share at 20% the last 2 weeks you can argue is the best of the TEs... but he is also the most expensive, and his aDOT isn't good at 4.4.... I'll be underweight. I don't want Knox either, can he scoop a TD? Sure, but a 6% target share since his return does not make you happy.

Last week was a blowout, but on 40% of snaps, Ekeler still saw 11 opps (6 targets), and in a closer gamer than a 50 point blowout, PLUS Allen still being out... I wouldn't be shocked to see Ekelers target share over 20% + carries... I want a bunch of him. Last week Johnston played the most snaps, was second among WRs in target share (9.5%), but had the best aDOT at a big time 20.67, at 4K, you can do a lot worse. You can make the arguement for Palmer, he led the WRs in target share (albeit a pedestrian 13%), and still managed a really good aDOT of 14.5... my only semi issue with him is he is priced with Gab/Diontae/Pickens/Boyd, and I almost like the others more than him, especially as I want others from LAC... I'll be underweight. I'll pass on Guyton/Erickson, I think they may hit one, but I don't like the volume, and that's with last weeks inflated script that benefitted them. TE is where we can have some fun. Everett may be my favorite (followed by freier) among all TEs... he is coming off b2b 8 targets game, while I don't like his 2.63 aDOT, in PPR formats/this price, we can look past it.... last week he finished with a 26% target share, and we can safely assume there will still be passing volume on this side of the offenses. Parham is an interesting Pivot off people getting cute with Knox, across the year, he has been used in the redzone/seen targets in that area, but it probably isn't someone I take in more than 1 lineup if I do...
 
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Sunday 1 PMs/Main Slate

IND/ATL

Colts have a great P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Falcons have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Minshew has a great pressure rate situation, and a good pass potential.
Ridder has a good pressure rate situation, but a bad pass potential.
Colts TTR is 10th.
Falcons TTR is T-5th.
Pace of play is 1st (good). O/U Rank is 4th.

- Injuries - IND - On O, RB Moss is out, WR Pittman is out. T Smith out for 3rd week.
- ATL - On D, DT Street (31%+) is missing 2nd week. LB Dupree (67%) is Q to return from a 1 week absence, DT Onyemata (64%) is Q to return from a 2 week hiatus. On O, T McGary is Q, and FB Smith is doubtful.

Right before the bye/his new injury, Taylor increase his snaps/usage weekly, hitting 88% last and 24 opps (1 target),, with Moss officially out, and no more injury designation, I would be shocked if he falls below 70% of snaps... I think people will be fearful, it is a tough matchup on paper, and he is pricey, but he will absolutely be in my pool. The matchup for the WRs look bad at first glance, but really it's graded to be a good matchup... for tourneys I think we take some shots with the rising floor a missing Pittman provides. With Minshew he had a monster 31% target share. I'm ok with Downs 18% target share, but his aDOT is even worse than Pittmans, and Pierce grades out just as good looking at just metrics, and then you see he is 1.5K cheaper... I continue to say it, but Pierce over Downs for me if I need salary relief (Pierce 12.5%/15.07 --- Downs 18%/6.75). I was ready to say pass at TE, but with Pittman out, they are part of the group that may get a piece of this 30% target share... the problem is 4 play, none were over 6% target share but the last 3-4~ weeks, Granson and Alie-Cox have aDOTs that are at least 9.... so I can see one being sneaky, but I'd reserve them for mass entering, and as a cheap punt/salary relief for a lineup, but if you wanted to avoid it completely, I understand... and to help with that, we have our 3rd option... DK Montgomery... he is 3.3K, and really it is a 3 man WR core, as Fernea/Cleveland are not absorbing snaps... and no Pittman/Dulin/McKenzie... there is nobody else...

We are getting a big discount on Bijan again, despite knowing last week was a slopfest/more catered to Allgeier... I am for it! Week 9, in Heinicke's only full start, the RB group finished with 9 targets, in a game they lead until the 4th quarter (just a fg deficit).... I personally think Bijan has a 20+ touch/5 target floor, and in a game with the #1 pace, maybe we quietly see a shootout? London feels a little to cheap at 5.1K for a 21.5%/11.49 aDOT player.... but if you think that, then what about Pitts at 4K? when he has a 19% target share/11.12 aDOT --- the guy also runs a route on 71% of dropbacks (only 2 TEs cheaper are above him (otton/higbee)), going into the BYE he was and is continuing to separate himself from Joonu in snaps, which was not happening through the first 7 weeks, and in that 1 full Heinicke start, the TEs combined for a 32% target share (Pitts maintained his big aDOT, at 10.8...), when it comes to passing options, I mostly want him. Also an FYI, Heinicke is at 4.8K salary...14.4 points (3x) is not a hard ask (200 - 1 is already 12...) I think he is viable for tourneys too.

SEA/TEN

Seahawks have a great P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Titans have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Geno? has a great pass potential.
Levis has a meh pressure rate situation, but a good pass potential. Henry? has a good run potential.
Seahawks TTR is T-7th.
Titans TTR is 16th (meh).
Pace of play is 13th. O/U Rank is 7th (meh).

- Injuries - SEA - On D, S Adams (84%) is missing 2nd week, CB Witherspoon (93%) is Q (but hasn't practiced), and CB Brown (65%) is also Q. On O, RB Walker is Q but tracking to play,
- TEN - On D, LB Gibbens (66%)/S Hooker (98%)/S Wallace (87%)/CB Murphy-Bunting (87%), are out,. DT Peko (39%) is out for 2nd week. DT Simmons (81%)/CB Fulton (87%) are out for 3rd week. Even ancillary pieces that don't play much (but probably would here) are out too, LB Gifford/DE McLendon. On O, no WR Ikhine, most likely no QB Levis, and possibly no TE Chig.

Ok wtf.... TEN Defense is WRECKED.... I'm kind of confused on what I do... If Walker is really ready to go and looks like how he was vs PHI, plus what I think will be a very much favorable script, I like him a lot... but at the same time... do we see explosive plays through the air, as this is typically the way to attack this defense... In that case, I'm going to want some Geno + Metcalf, with some JSN, maybe a touch of Lockett... obviously passing at TE... but I'm going to build lineups catered to Geno + Metcalf, and some to Walker, with maybe DEF. (or maybe an onslaught?

We are most likely getting Tannehill again, going back to his weeks 1-5, Hopkins had a huge 30% target share, with a really good 13.29 aDOT... add in maybe no Chig/no Westbrook (they actually accounted for 32% of Tanny's targets), WHILE also adding in a HIGHLY likely positive passing script, WHILE also also the possibility of a depleted starting secondary for SEA, and I may just lock Hopkins in 80%+ of my lineups... I do think ancillary pieces are fine, and maybe in a lineup or two you go burks, maybe 1 moore, as they are almost floor price, and get the same benefit of no Westbrook/Chig, but I don't think I have the heart to do a big team stack for one lineup.. as this is the titans we are talking about... No way in Hell do we play Henry when it is a projected negative script... his 20 opps for 10 total yards didn't help last week either, and he is way to expensive.. pass... now for tourneys... Spears is interesting.. he is under 5K, and in 4 of the 5 Tanny starts, he hit at least 4 targets... and this should be a game where he well out snaps Henry, I think he is fine for a couple of lineups.

DET/MIN

Lions have a bad P/RB matchup.
Vikings have a meh P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Goff has a great pressure rate situation.
Mullens has a good pass potential. Chandler? has a bad run potential.
Lions TTR is T-2nd (good).
Vikings TTR is 9th.
Pace of play is 4th. O/U Rank is 2nd (good).

- Injuries - DET - On D, LB Barnes (67%+) is doubtful, CB Jacobs (96%) is out for 2nd week. DT McNeill (69%) is out for 3rd week. On O, TE Wright is out.
- MIN - On D, LB Hicks (93%+) is returning after 4 weeks out. CB Murphy (100%) is out. On O, T O'Neill is Q, RB Mattison is Q.

I know there's some injuries on the D, and the total is high, the pace is good, but I do think these D's are better than portrayed, and because of that, I don't want full on QB game stacks, but I will look here for one-offs, or mini game stacks.

I'll start by saying I can't play either of these DET backs at this price, which is close or at peak for both of them, I know Gibbs looks like the preferred target based off explosiveness, and his bigger target games.. but he also hasn't even got to 20 touches since week 8, when Montgomery didn't even play, he hasn't even got over 15 opps in the last 3 weeks.. how can we pay 7K for that... IMO, we really have 3 one-off/mini game stack options from this side... the first is St. Brown, since the bye (6 games), he has a really good 28% target share to go with his 8.58 aDOT, and if the RBs are projected to have a big of a tougher time, they may use short passing as its replacement, which should start with this man. His price is hefty, but even in just the 2 write-ups above, there are viable cheapies. The 2nd is LaPorta, in that same span, he has a 20% target share (really good for a TE), with a decent 8.59 aDOT, while he is the most expensive TE, he is arguably the best candidate for slate breaking upside.... The only other side I'd consider is of course Jam. Williams... he is cheap at 3.7K, and in tourneys, when looking this low in price, you want either an injury replacement value, or a home run hitter, and he is obviously one of those. His playing time is rivaling the original WR2 of Reynolds, and he also carries a massive 17.82 aDOT.

I know this is one of the hardest teams for a RB to face, but if Mattison is really out, Chandler is to cheap at under 6K when he will be projected 80%~ of snaps, and 24~ opps, I'm not saying I love him, and there is an argument to fade in tourneys IF he is going to be popular, but he should be in your player pool otherwise. I know he had a "quiet" game, but JJ last week with Mullens/full first game back, had a 96% snap count, 31.5% target share, and a 12.8 aDOT.... idk if we have forgotten, but those are WR1 overall metrics, and JJ has been the WR1 many times in his short career, yet he is priced as the WR4... I like him a lot. Addison had a big game last week, and a 19% target share/8.83 aDOT is overall fine but he is priced with the Hopkins area of the world, and that is to expensive for my blood. Even in a semi neutral script, Osborn hit a season low 54%, it's official he is the WR3, pass. Hockensons 22% target share is good, especially when considering they are top 5 in pass to run ratio, and the aDOT of 7 is on the better side for a TE... I'd say he is a direct pivot of LaPorta, and maybe even McBride, but I still don't think I'll have much of him if any at all, as I much prefer JJ, and maybe some Chandler.

WAS/NYJ

Commanders have a bad P/RB matchup.
Jets have a great P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Howell? has a bad pressure rate situation, and a bad pass potential. Br. Robinson? has a bad run potential.
Siemien? has a meh pressure rate situation. Hall has a bad run potential.
Commanders TTR is 17th (meh).
Jets TTR is T-13th.
Pace of play is 7th. O/U Rank is 8th (bad).

- Injuries - WAS - On D, LB Davis (86%) is out for 2nd week, S Butler (81%) is Q. On O, C/T Larsen and Leno are out. RB Br. Robinson is out.
- NYJ - On D, DT Jefferson (49%). On O, T Brown is Q.

What a bad time to support Howell in still being the starter after being pulled last week, and now having to go up against NYJ D down 2 offensive lineman..... Washington is the #1 pass play % team in the league, so from a PPR perspective, a player will definitely get there for this team, but howell in general shouldn't be played at his price, with the real potential of getting pulled again. Since Samuels return, Dotsons numbers have been baaaaad, 10% target share, with an 8 aDOT... Samuel is now more expensive, but by only $300... I am only using this team for one-offs (not often though),and while I prefer Samuel to Dotson, I won't be playing either of them..... because I want either a), McLaurin and his 22.5% target share/14.22 aDOT at under 6K, or Gibson... who again is thrust into the starting role, only 5.2K, and had 8 of his 9 opps (5 targets) in the first half last week, before the rams got their 3 possession lead.

Siemian last week came in when they were already down 3+ possessions, so it is hard to gauge the true target share breakdown/aDOT... having said that, Wilson/Lazard still played 90%+ of snaps, so I feel like it was kind of accurate from that perspective... and if that's the case, Wilson doesn't look as appealing... the problem is, when you look at his season numbers, he is dynamite under 6K... so I'm torn. My gut says to pass/be very underweight in tourneys, and maybe take a look at Lazard (did I just say that?) He is 3.2K, mentioned already but played 90%+ of snaps, had a good aDOT of 11, and a target share of 18%, those are really good for floor price... I'll note Gipsons numbers look identical, but his playing time/usage was probably most inflated from the script. I want to like Hall today, but I can't and I may eat those words. In a game where I am sure check downs were available.. Siemian only did it 3 times on his 26 pass attempts, and there is a likely chance the pass attempts as a whole are a bit lower than average with the probability of playing with a lead and catches are worth a lot more to breece than carries... so I'm feeling to pass. I am not chasing Conklin, his target share is nice, but like Breece, if there is no passing volume, I don't want 4 short aDOT targets as a max for 3.2K.


GBP/CAR

Packers have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
Panthers have a great P/RB matchup.
Love has a great pressure rate situation, and a great pass potential. A. Jones? has a great run potential.
Young has a bad pressure rate situation.
Packers TTR is 12th.
Panthers TTR is 18th (bad).
Pace of play is 9th. O/U Rank is 9th (bad).

- Injuries - GBP - On D, S Savage (85%) missing 2nd week, LB Campbell (81%) is out, CB Alexander is Q to return after 6 week hiatus, and S Ford (100%~) is Q. On O, still no TE Musgrave, WR Watson is doubtful, WR Reed is Q but didn't practice... then WR/RB Wicks/Dillon are Q.
- CAR - On D, LB Cherelus may be returning. On O, TE Thomas is Q, obviously Hurst is still out.

I do want to think CAR pass D is better than they get credit for, but I also know it looks a bit amped up due to how poor they are vs the run AND teams not needing to pass because they're winning by 2+ possessions... having said that, I don't want to go all in here. We need to take a wait and see approach as we don't know if we will have 0, 1, or both of Reed/Wicks, obviously value opens up as more WRs are out though so I get it. Kraft feels a bit expensive at 3.9K for a 13% target share/5.22 aDOT, but he does play every snap, and should be included in the value rise if multiple WRs miss, but I don't think I'll have much. I'll obviously like him more if Dillon is out, but in either scenario, you have to think Jones should see an increase in snap count as weeks go by... He played just 48% of snaps last week and finished with 17 opps (4 targets), if he can get over 20+ with that target floor, 6.4K beings to look nice vs this CAR D.

Bryce has really been killing me because these WRs look so great, but they continue to fail --- remember when Thielen was a slate breaking god,,, I still think Thielen is slightly expensive at 5.9K, yet over the last 5 games he has a good 10.91 aDOT, and a good 22% target share... my issue is that Mingo looks AWESOME... he has a 28.5% target share, with a 12.53 aDOT --- you might think I'm crazy, but that's easily top 10 FLOOR WR numbers if you dropped him and those metrics on a team with a normal QB pulse, oh and he is just 3.6K.... I HAVE to continue to play him, because he will breakout very soon. Like the Colts TE, if you want to dart throw/salary save here with Tremble/Sullivan, be my guest.. I won't though. Hubbard is a lock for 100 total yards, and maybe 2 catches?, he has had 3 straight games with 24+ opps, yet he is under 6K... I think him, and definitely mingo are good options from this side to at least have in your pool.

CLV/HOU

Browns have a good P matchup, and a bad RB matchup.
Texans have a bad P/RB matchup.
Flacco has a meh pressure rate situation, and a meh pass potential. Ford? has a meh run potential.
Stroud? has a bad pressure rate situation, and a bad pass potential. Singletary has a bad run potential.
Browns TTR is 15th.
Texans TTR is T-5th.
Pace of play is 2nd (good). O/U Rank is 6th (meh).

- Injuries - CLV - On D, DE Okoronkwo (56%)/S Delpit (95%) are out for 2nd week, S Thornhill (93%) is out for 3rd week (and S McLeod (49%) has been out for 5 weeks). On O, T Jones out for 4th week, and G Bitonio is Q.
- HOU - On D, LB Cashman (77%)/DE Anderson (67%) are out for 2nd week, CB Thomas (78%) is out for 4th week. On O, obvi no WR Dell, but WR Collins is Q/Trending on playing

Flacco is averaging no fewer than 44 pass attempts in all 3 of his starts.... and what is crazy, is it has been a vast majority within a neutral game script (for a moment down 10 vs bears, but conversely in a negative pass script vs jags for longer...), now I don't think we need to play flacco per se, but 40+ pass attempts means PPR points for the pass catchers, and that's what I'm interested in. In the 3 starts, Cooper kind of grades out similarly to Moore, yet Moore is much cheaper. Cooper is 21%/12.3, while Moore is 16.5%/18.76.... I wouldn't go overboard but Moore>Cooper for me. I know the elephant in the room is Njoku, as he has a 22% target share/6.04 aDOT, but he is priced up with Engram/Hockenson AND McBride, I can't pick him over most of them....

We still have Keenum at the helm, and HOU's players still have the Stroud inflation tied to them.... Brown had really insane metrics last week, but the tougher matchup, and the return of collins really dilutes this team... I'll fade it. Singletary played a high of 75% in the 4game span that Pierce has returned... there is no threat to this backfield... weeks 9/10 without Pierce/similarities to last week, he had a floor of 24 opps (2 targets) and a ceiling of 32 opps (2 targets) --- last week he had 31 opps (5 targets), at 5.5K, I hope the matchup scares people because I want me some Singletary.... Flacco isn't mistake free anymore, so we may even get set up in good field position from time to time.

Sunday 4PMs/Main Slate (cont.)

JAC/TBB

Jaguars have a meh P/RB matchup.
Bucs have a meh P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Lawrence has a good pressure rate situation, and a great pass potential. Etienne has a bad run potential.
Baker has a good pressure rate situation. R. White has a meh run potential.
Jaguars TTR is T-7th.
Bucs TTR is 11th.
Pace of play is 8th. O/U Rank is 5th.

- Injuries - JAC - On D, CB/S Campbell (84%)/Cisco (90%) are Q to return from hiatus's. CB Braswell may be returning from IR also. On O, no WR Kirk, WR Jones is Q, and QB Lawrence is Q.
- TBB - On D, DE Gholston (25%) is Q to return from 1 week hiatus. S Winfield (100%) is Q/didn't practrice.

The last 3 weeks without Kirk, Ridley/Jones grade out very well, 25.5%/23%, and 14.73 aDOT/17.63 aDOT... Zay is obviously much cheaper, and based off this, should be the preferred target, but I think both are extremely viable and I reluctantly think I want Ridley more though. We know TBB is pass funnel, and the offense is concentrated... and Ridley isn't coming in with a Hammy designation. Engram falls in with Njoku/Ferguson/Schultz, imo they are strictly leverage pivots off McBride (and sort of Hock/LaPorta), I don't really care for Engrams 5.22 aDOT, but if the volume is there, a 21% target share can get you there... I'll be underweight though, as I prefer both Ridley>Zay a bit more. Etienne continues to show he can have a safe PPR floor, but in his 6 games since the BYE, 5 have been his lowest snap count and has only got over 18 opps just once in them, While his price has come down, I still don't think I'm bucking just yet... and if he fails this week... we can all lineup to smash him next @CAR.

White's price continues to go up, and you'd think eventually people will fade him... I hope they do, as he is as steady as they come, hitting at least 23 opps (and at least 2 targets, usually more), in 5 of his last 7, averaging 1 TD/g, and playing well over 80% of snaps... he should never be off your player pool. There's a good chance this secondary is getting heathier, and I don't want to full on game stack this one too much, and I think I'd rather fade the ownership.. Having said that, if you like the TBB passing attack, go for it... Evans last 5 weeks has really good numbers with a 29% target share, and 14.13 aDOT, Godwin probably isn't cheap enough comparatively, but it still is good with a 25.5%/9.57 numbers. And of course Otton, he plays practically every snap, and is #5 among TEs in rountes ran per dropback... I know he isn't dynamiting every week, but he never breaks the bank and we know he could.

ARI/CHI

Cards have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Bears have a great P/RB matchup.
Kyler has a good pressure rate situation, but a bad pass potential.
Fields has a good pass potential. R. Johnson? has a great run potential.
Cards TTR is T-13th.
Bears TTR is 4th (good).
Pace of play is 6th. O/U Rank is 3rd.

- Injuries - ARI - On D, LB White (95%)/DT Fotu (41%) are out for 4th week. LB Woods (78%)/CB Williams (67%) are out. CB Hamilton (75%+) is Q. On O, no WR Hollywood, WR Dortch is Q, and TE Swaim is out.
- CHI - On D, no DE Ngakoue (72%). On O, T Jenkins is out. WR St.Brown is out. RB Homer is Q, and RB Foreman is Q but isn't likely to play. TE Kmet is Q.

I think Conner is fine from a volume standpoint, but he's had just 13 targets in his 5 games back, leading to 9 catches and 9 total yards... I don't really see a ceiling in this matchup, and there are others priced around him I like more, pass. WR is a crapshoot... last week they really didn't have hollywood, and the leading WR had just a 10.5% target share.. well they actually don't have hollywood this week, and dortch may miss... Do I think you can dart throw Wilson/Pascal, maybe moore? yes... but at best I'll have 1 of them in 1 lineup maybe. Who we really need to talk about is McBride... in Kylers 5 starts, he has a 27.5% target share (easily best among TEs), and an ok aDOT of 6.11... his direct backup in Swaim is out (plays 20-30% of snaps), as well as Hollywood/maybe Dortch... this guy should easily see 10+ targets and I expect them to be playing from behind... fire him up.

CHI is interesting.. I will always see the upside in Fields/Moore, but before I go there/what has me wanting to go neutral on ownership is Roschon. We are expected to not see Foreman in this game... when that happened in Week 12, Roschon played 74% of snaps (to Herberts 21%), and he finished with 15 opps (5 targets) in a tough matchup vs MIN.... now he has ARI and is priced below 5K... I see you. In Fields 4 games back, Moore has an amazing 33.5% target share, with a good 10.5 aDOT... those are WR1 overall numbers, yet he is not priced above 7K like he should be... I'll continue to ride him while I can. I will note, Mooney is more than half as cheap, and he quietly has a good 16% target share/11.68 aDOT since Fields return too, at almost floor price, he is a decent pick in this range, but I can see a scenario where CHI plays with a lead, so I'm hesitant. I'm not playing Kmets overpriced ass with his 2.8 aDOT, even with a 21% target share, pass.

DAL/MIA

Cowboys have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Dolphins have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Dak has a meh pressure rate situation.
Mostert? has a good run potential.
Cowboys TTR is T-2nd (good).
Dolphins TTR is 1st (great).
Pace of play is 14th (meh). O/U Rank is 1st (great).

- Injuries - DAL - On D, 2nd week w/o DT Hankins (41%), but DE Fehoko may be returning. On O, T Tyron Smith our for 2nd week, and G Martin is Q/was limited this week.
- MIA - On D, 4th week w/o LB Phillips (71%), 3rd week w/o LB Baker (87%), On O, T Hunt out for 4th week, and WR Hill is Q.

Kind of like last week, I don't want to be overweight this game, but use it at most for one-offs/mini game stacks, as I don't like the pace with the combo of eyes/ownership of this game because of the best O/U. Also the big boys in this game are super expensive.

The game kind of got out of hand last week for DAL, but prior to that, Pollard was coming off b2b 24 opp (6 target average) games, I don't really like most RBs in this range, as I'd rather pay up or really go down here but I do prefer Pollard to Henry/Montgomery/Etienne. either way I'll be severely underweight at best. Since the BYE Lamb has DJ Moore numbers like mentioned above, with a 32.5% target share/10.99 aDOT...but rather than being 6.9K, he is rightfully 9.2K, and in a tougher matchup... I think he is fine if you want him, but I think I like the DET/MIN environment of ASB/JJ better, as well as Moore so I'll be severely underweight at best again. Cooks is fine at 4.9K, and his 13%/13.55 aDOT, and I obviously prefer Tolbert>Gallup if big stacking this game. Ferguson can breakout, but he is to expensive when compared to the guys just above him... I'd rather go up or much lower if I had too.

I know Mostert is techincally the RB1, but his PPR upside is non existent, so if he isn't scoring TDs, he will hurt you at this price. Since Achanes return, MIA really has played one close game.. and inthat game, he had 16 opps (9 targets!), and actually hasn't seen fewer than 3 in any of the 3 games equaling a 20% target share on this team... we know he has explosive upside, but he definitely feels safer than Mostert at that price imo. Ugh, idk what to do, but if Hill is in, my gut says to just fade and let others pay these massive prices while you go a bit lower and have the same type of projections.... but I will say if hill is out, Waddle for me all day. Smythe plays a lot, but he doesn't run a boatload of routes, if Hill is out maybe you can convince me of a punt, but otherwise pass.
 
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Sunday Night/Showdown Slate

NEP/DEN

Patriots have a great P/RB matchup.
Broncos have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Zappe? has a meh pass potential. Zeke? has a good rush potential.
Jav. Williams has a meh run potential.
Pace of play is 10th.

- Injuries - NEP - On D, S Peppers (95%+) is out, CB J.C. Jackson (77%%) out for 2nd week. On O, TE Henry/WR Juju/RB Stevenson are all out. T McDermott is out.
- DEN - On D, LB Bonitto (53%) out for 2nd week.

I know Zeke had a modest performance last week, but he still played 87% of snaps, and had 17 opps (6 targets), giving him an average of 7 a game in his 2 starts... that is what we call a floor/ceiling combo. The Pats really have 3 to 4~ WRs, but I think I only semi care for 3 of them.... Parker/Douglas are the snap guys/WR1&2's, as they tied for target share at 16% last week, but there aDOTs were both under 10.... I don't think you need to go overboard, but if hunting, one of them are fine. I'll mention Raegor solely because he is floor price at $200, and played 55% of snaps last week but I'd rather go to the TEs. All these WRs, but also the TEs I will mention later, should see a boost in targets as Hunter Henry last week had a 29% target share/7 aDOT that now needs to get dispersed, even in Zappes 3 startes, he still had a 20% target share/8,63 aDOT... I think Gesicki si the preferred option, but if mass entering, please don't ignore pharoah brown either.

DEN lost last week, which means Jav. Williams isn't a good play... well this week they are double digit faves, and we can go back to a 20+ opp floor/3+ targets... I think he is capt. material for sure, and should be included in your player pool. Humphrey should be crossed off, he is practically same price as mims and sees less targets/aDOT/snaps~. Sutton is priced 3K more than Jeudy, because of this I think both are viable... since the bye Sutton sits at 23.5%/13.67, and Jeudy is at 18%/10.47... I don't think I play both in the same lineup though. Pass at TE, they don't see enough work, and we have the cheap options with risen floors to go after...
 
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Monday/3 Game Slate

LVR/KCC

Raiders have a great RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Chiefs have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
O'Connell has a bad pass potential.
Mahomes has a good pass potential.
Raiders TTR is 6th (bad).
Chiefs TTR is T-2nd (good).
Pace of play is 12th. O/U Rank is 3rd (meh).

- Injuries - LVR - On D, CB Jones (80%+ last 2 weeks) is Q, and CB Facyson may be returning after missing all year. On O, no TEs Mayer/Horsted, RB Jacobs is Q.
- KCC - On D, S Cook (79%) is out for 3rd week. On O, no WRs Hardman/Toney/Moore, no RB McKinnon, no T Smith out for 4th week.

Pacheco practiced in full, I don't think there will be any limitations personally, and lucky for him McKinnon is now on IR... He recently played 2 games without him and hit season high in snaps (78/70%), and 20/22 opps (5/4 targets)... I think he is a solid play. This will be the first game with no Moore/Toney, and obvi still no Hardman... It leaves us with MVS/Watson/Rice, and maybe Ross/James~.... but there is no reason to look past the first 3 as MVS/Watson will definitely get more time/utilization than the others below them on the depth chart, and they are already floor price.. so why pivot? I'll note Watson/MVS are obviously the big aDOT/HR prayer guys and I have no issues throwing them in a game stack, or as a salary saving option. Rice the last 2 weeks (with Toney and Moore mind you) has really ascended, and played 85% then 92% of snaps, his highest of the year, and the first ANY WR on this team has even been over 70% of snaps all year... we finally have a KC WR that is reliable for Mahomes and doesn't get off the field? I don't like his aDOT of 4.11 in those 2 games, but his 25.5% target share is nice, and gives him a super solid floor, with upside... I know Kelce has been disappointing to his standards, but of all TEs he has the highest floor, and maybe 2 TEs could match his ceiling on this slate, he still has a 21.5% target share/8.87 aDOT since the bye (L5 games), and the missing players should rise that share avg.

The Raiders under Pierce have actually played a neutral to positive run script in all 6 games, but 1, which had just a partially positive pass script for a quarter, vs this very same chiefs in week 12... It was the only time Jacobs finished with over 2 targets.... so if you think LVR keeps in close/play with a lead, I actually don't like his PPR floor so much, but I do think they play from a deficit, and if he is all systems go, I have no problem using him, so paint the picture of how you think the game flow will go and act accordingly. In the 6 games with Pierce as coach/O'Connell at QB, Adams has a ridiculous 34% target share, with an 11 aDOT, he has to be in your player pool. Meyers plays a lot, but has a 7.69 aDOT... his target share is 16% is fine, but his pricing is in kind of no mans land... you almost want to either pay down, or up at this range, at the moment I think it's better to fade. Tucker is the MVS/Watson of KC, he has a huge 20.06 aDOT, with a 9% target share... I actually prefer him to Meyers and definitely no Renfrow. I think the Raiders are dressing 2 TEs due to injuries at the position. One is an undrafted rookie who has been stuck on the practice squad until now, the other is Austin Hooper, and they both are floor price... if you aren't going Kelce, maybe Kittle, I think paying all the way down to Hooper could be an ok punt option, him getting 7.5~ points, could be equivalent to Kelce getting 22.5~.

NYG/PHI

Giants have a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Eagles have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
DeVito has a bad pressure rate situation. Barkley has a meh run potential.
Hurts has a good pressure rate situation, and a great pass potential. Swift has a great run potential.
Giants TTR is 5th (bad).
Eagles TTR is 1st (great).
Pace of play is 11th. O/U Rank is 2nd.

- Injuries - NYG - On D, DT Nunez-Roches (43%) is out. On O, TE Cage is Q, WR Hodgins is Q.
- PHI - On D, CB Slay (97%)/LB Cunningham (82%) are out for 2nd week. LB Morrow (80%) is Q. On O, G Dickerson out for 2nd week.

I have some concerns about Barkley... in his 5 starts with DeVito, he has hit over 19 opps just once... and in his 3 FP matchups, he didn't even break out of single digits, and PHI's grades out the same.... I won't leave him off my pool, but I'll be underweight. These NYG WRs are CHEAPPPP, and they are in a sexy spot. I thnik Slayton grades out the best, as he has one of the top target shares at 17% with DeVito, as well as an aDOT of 10.18 (2nd best), I think Wandale is fine for PPR formats/cash games, but for a tourney, give me Hyatt and his bigger 16.8 aDOT (with an 11.5% target share).... Slayton>Hyatt>Wandale >>>>>> Hodgins/Campbell/Shepard. I'll mix and match the top 3, but having more shares by the order listed above. Wallers target share is fine at 17.5%, and last weeks numbers show he sapped all WRs targets minus Slayton, but his aDOT was meh at 5, and the other TEs look better. I'll be very underweight.

During this losing streak Swift has been pretty mediocre/bad, averaging 6 PPR FPs/g but we've also seen him hit 20 opps/have a decent PPR floor when they were good/winning games... I think we all believe a PHI win is the most likely script, so I will have some Swift, but I wouldn't be shocked to see PHI continue to reel in this divisional game. There's 0 reason to go Zaccheaus/Julio, because since Watkins has returned in his L3, they each play less and have a 1% target share.. Throw Watkins in with Watson/MVS/Hyatt/Tucker, as he is floor price, and has a huge 22.4 aDOT (just a 5% target share)... he is here for salary saving/hr hunting. In these 3 games where they lost, Brown has an insane 36% target share/10.56 aDOT, if you really think Giants win, you better lock in Brown no matter what. Smith is just a lesser version of Brown, as his aDOT is similar at 10.54, but his target share falls to 25%... he is fine, but if I have to, I will try to get up to Brown where it doesn't stress the roster makeup. In the 2 games Goedert has returned, he has a decent 22.5% target share (bit better than Waller), but a really bad aDOT of 3.85... I don't love it, and will be underweight at best.

BAL/SFO

Ravens have a good RB matchup, bad P matchup.
49ers have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Lamar has a bad pressure rate situation, and a meh pass potential. Gus Bus?? has a great run potential.
Ravens TTR is 4th.
49ers TTR is T-2nd (good).
Pace of play is 16th (bad/last). O/U Rank is 1st.

- Injuries - BAL - On D, CB Maulet (41%) is out. On O, RB Mitchell is out, and WR Flowers is Q.
- SFO - On D, DE Armstead (66%) is out for 3rd week, LB Burks (31%) is out for 2nd week, DT Davis (26%~ L3) is out, LB Grergory (41%) is out. On O, TE Dwelley/WR Jennings are out (still no McCloud either), RB Mitchell is Q.

I really really don't want to play Gus Bus, he usually has a bad PPR floor as he has only had over 2 targets ONCE this whole year, and we know Lamar can vulture... if Gus Bus goes for 0 Tds.. he will assuredly dud you, I'm either full fading, or massively going under weight. There was a 4~ week stretch where it was just Gus/Hill and Hill practically split duties in 3 of them and averaged 3.67 targets in them... I'm not saying to go overboard, but if mass entering, I don't mind him in a couple, especially if you think SFO plays with a lead, and/or you are struggling to fit in CMC/other big dogs....for four weeks prior to the BYE, OBJ saw his snap counts flutter to an average of about 36%~, while Bateman was 75%+... well in the 2 games post bye, this has flipped to 53% Beckham, and 45% Bateman.... now Bateman can still be considered a tourney dart throw/salary saver, at 3.3K, just like Watson/MVS/Tucker/Hyatt/Watkins as the last 2 weeks he has had a 16% target share, with a 20 aDOT... my hesitation in avoiding him in most lineups, despite good metrics, is OBJ looks better with his 20.5% target share, and 21.23 aDOT.... Last week he did only see 3 targets, but it was in a blowout win... while possible, that is probably not as likely. Flowers is fine, he plays the most by far, has a 19% target share/11.83 aDOT, but he is priced the highest... I won't cross him off, but he is my least favorite of the 3. Do not do Agholor.... In Likely's 3 full starts, he has a 20.5% target share, and 4.47 aDOT... this are eerily similar to Waller/Goedert, and why I don't really want any to much.

We have a TON of cheap value/salary saving options with tourney upside... so it really is a tough sell to fade CMC... but if you do, you really need the other high end options to hit hard (Brown/Adams/Kelce, Deebo?)... if there was a matchup he underperformed, this would be the one, but I have to make rosters considering both. The only WR3 on this team is R. Bell, so he technically should see more time than usual, and at 3K it looks good, but there is so much cheap value on this slate, why go here when you can get the WR1/2 on the NYG, WR2 on BAL, WR2/3 on KCC, ETC... pass. I will continue to hold strong, but in the 6 most recent weeks post BYE, Aiyuk/Deebo metrics are as follows, 22%/13.56 vs 24%/7.16... the man on the right is 1K more expensive.. I know he has a knack for getting into the end zone, but I will have more Aiyuk than Deebo for sure. Kittle is the player that can truly rival Kelce, as I doubt others can or will in this slate... In the same time frame (L6) Kittle has a 21.5% target share (like every TE on this slate), but he has the best aDOT of 10.
 
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Mixon ov 18.5 rec.. 20+ in 7 of last 8, didn’t make it last week but he got banged up and sat a bit while brown got some his numbers. Brown could continue cutting in to his touches but he still had 3 catches last week, now there 7/10 extra targets to go around without chase. You gotta go back to ‘21 and 6 games since he failed to hit this on Steelers, running backs and te’s a young qb best friend. This a no brainer.
 
Little more juicy than I like but this feels like a lead pipe lock

Dak ov 1.5 td passes -165

Dallas really doesn’t run in tds, they throw to score and they gonna score here imo.

Geno smith over 239.5 passing. He wasn’t happy bout sitting last week, titans secondary has no chance to deal with Lockett, DK, and smith-Nijugba, these dudes should be thrilled to have a guy bsck who can lead them on throws w anticipation and not throw everything 100mph high and outside! I said I didn’t think there was a big difference between lock and geno last week. I got the W but i was wrong bout that. I assumed lock would have learned to play football by now but I was wrong, geno has taken the time to master the position and lock still a immature douche bag.

Not sure what to do with Lawrence/jags? They should throw all over the Bucs, I consider pederson a pretty goof coach so I’d think he attacks this pass d rather than try bumping up against a brick wall in the run game. The prob being the best way ti attack bucs is out of the slot imo, this would be a monster Kirk game if he wasn’t out for the year! I dunno who the main replacement for him? To make things worse zay Jones out far as I can tell, he really doesn’t play the slot but he pulls doubles off Ridley.. I’ve heard the name Parker Washington quite a bit, I don’t know shit bout him 34.5 a pretty strong imo, 12 yards above Agnew says something don’t it? He had 6 for 62 and a tuddy in his 1st game, only 2 for 27 at cle but tough d bad weather, He caught 4 balls vs ravens, only like 13 freaking yards but the 4 passed encouraging. Facing a crappy d today he gets 4-5 catches out the slot 35 yards shoooda be a done deal
 
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ScopeY said:
Hey I actually did a good job getting 7 of 9 done before the morning!! hahah
Click to expand...

I might have noticed if I wasn’t sitting here dropping my phone ovet and over then waking up wken it hits floor! I been lucky to sleep 2 hours a night, between life crap, my typical insomnia traits, I been dealing w this cough that starts a hour or so after I fall asleep, rest tge night I can’t lay down so I kinda sleep sitting up. By 6;30 I gave up and started drinking coffee, that wasn’t helping so j popped a few addy’s just hoping they kick in so I can drive to casino without sleeping on the drive!! LmAo, Don’t mind me, lol, I just picked up bout 10 half cigs I dropped on this rug I put under my feet for these times.
 
Capaholic said:
Kelce is my TE. G Wilson or Kittle for final flex spot. Help lol
Click to expand...
It's a super small sample size, but Siemian really did not lock on him like Wilson did, obviously the matchup is nice, do you need a ceiling game? I think Kittle offers you some stability with a path to a ceiling of wilsons
 
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