Sunday 1PMs/Main Slate
LAR@NYJ
Rams have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Jets have a meh P/RB matchup.
Stafford has a meh pressure rate situation. Kyren has a good rush potential.
Rodgers has a great pass potential.
Rams TTR is 6th (good).
Jets TTR is T-11th.
Pace of play is T-8th. O/U Rank is T-3rd (good).
- Kyren is coming off b2b games with 31 opps, which is incredible, but in the last 5 games with Kupp/Nacua healthy, his ppr floor has disappeared. Averaging 1 target a game in those matchups, never seeing more than 2 in a single game. I don't want to pay top dollar for that. Nacua in these 5 games has had a 37% target share, which is massive, while Kupps sits at 27%. While I think either are playable, Kupps price has dropped significantly compared to Nacuas jump as well and it makes me like him the most in this game, hopefully his dud performance lowers his ownership even further.
Hall is a conundrum, he played about 50% of snaps last week and had 11 opps, is he healthier this week, will his snaps rise even slightly? I ask because they plummeted his price to 6.1K and makes for an interesting tourney option imo. This offense feels similar to their opponents but with a bit more passing volume/depth. Adams/Wilson make up a majority of Rodgers targets. I think both are viable, almost like the kupp>nacua thing, I like wilson more than adams, but it's not as mispriced so I get it either way.
NYG@ATL
Giants have a meh P/RB matchup.
Falcons have a good P/RB matchup.
Lock has a meh pressure rate situation.
Penix has a good pass potential. Bijan has a good rush potential.
Giants TTR is 21st (meh).
Falcons TTR is T-4th (good).
Pace of play is 4th. O/U Rank is 8th.
- If tracy is out, Singletary at 4.5K is obviously an option, if he is in, I probably avoid both but tracy has avg'd 74% of snaps in his last 3, making him a 5K priced bellcow is hard to pass up. I think Nabers may be one of my favorite plays. In his 2 starts with Lock, he had a 29.5% target share, 11.5 target/g avg and he is priced at low 6K. I think slayton is a nice punt option too, having a 15.25 aDOT, and an ok target share of 15.5% near floor price --- you'd think they'd have more time in the pocket than usual vs this defense.
Not sure what we do here, but at 4.5K, and question marks surrounding him, Penix is absolutely a tourney option. I don't know what his target discrepancy will be like, so don't get hung up if you have to stick him with Rayray or Pitts as the cheapest options, as they may very well pay off. Londons RZ looks may take a dip, which sucks, but overall this team could be better through the air than the last 3/4~ weeks, and we know they like 3 WR sets, I'll take shots!
PHI@WAS
Eagles have a great P/RB matchup.
Commanders have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Hurts has a good pressure rate situation, and a good pass potential. Barkley has a good rush potential.
Daniels has a bad pressure rate situation.
Eagles TTR is 7th (good).
Commanders TTR is T-14th.
Pace of play is 10th (meh). O/U Rank is 6th.
- I don't think we can every keep Barkley off a list, and if this game stays within a neutral script, or if PHI is forced to speed up, this offense can definitely overperform. In the 2 games with Smiths return, and no Goedert, Both WRs have seen target shares of 30% or better... that's a massive amount of concentration. I think Brown is definitely playable, but Smith at 5.8K is laughably bad, and he is one of my other favorite plays for the week.
Br. Robinsons first game out of the bye, and another without ekeler saw him get a season high 74% of snaps, leading to 24 opps (3 targets), I know the matchup is tough, but he is tourney viable at 6.2K. These WRs behind McLaurin are cheap, but they just don't get enough volume, I guess I'd dart throw at D. Brown based off snaps, but not in love. Mach 5 can always be considered, in 2 games w/o ekeler he may be graded 1 of the better WRs with a 29.5% target share that is accompanied with a 13 aDOT. I guess if Ertz is healthy he is a cheap punt.
CLV@CIN
Browns have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Bengals have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Burrow has a bad pressure rate situation, but a great pass potential. Brown has a meh rush potential.
Browns TTR is 20th (meh).
Bengals TTR is 2nd (great).
Pace of play is 2nd. O/U Rank is T-3rd.
- in 45% of snaps wk7 vs this same team, DTR threw the ball 24 times, and actually had 44 yards rushing.... he is in the 4K range, and may go overlooked with all the other cheap priced QBs (Penix/Lock/Howell/Jones/AR/Etc.). This is one of the better matchups to be against and if that rushing floor is legit, he honestly has some upside, just have to hope Cincy pushes the pace, which the offense is capable of doing. Ford thrusted into a starting role makes him viable in the 5K range. I am inclined to do a naked DTR the most, because we want his rushing floor to succeed, and Jeudy's price is vaulted as if its Winston slinging it, Njoku could be back too. Moore would be more mostly played pairing.
Finally Browns price is where it should be, close to the top. The guy hit a season high 93% of snaps last week, and finished with 28 opps (3 targets). He hasn't seen fewer than 3 targets in his L7 games, hitting as high as 11. If you can afford him, and want to play him, go for it. IF he doesn't TD though I will say he probably doesn't payoff this salary, but I guess that goes with all the higher priced RB options. Chase/Higgins are similar to Kupp/Nacua, Adams/Wilson, but Higgins has consistently had the higher aDOT. I think both/individually can be played, but I will note this could be one of the few games where they may play at a lot slower pace and/or see a lower passing volume total so fading the higher ownership could be smart for tourneys.
ARI@CAR
Cardinals have a great P/RB matchup.
Panthers have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Kyler has a great pressure rate situation, and pass potential. Conner has a great rush potential.
Young have a great pressure rate situation.
Cards TTR is T-4th (good).
Panthers TTR is 13th.
Pace of play is 5th. O/U Rank is 2nd (good).
- Feels like every damn week I say this week Kyler should actually be better, and he continues to fail me. I may be starting Penix over him in a semi final this week (maybe in 2 of my semis I'll be starting Penix, moving on), having said that, this HAS to be the week he finally succeeds. It should be one of his easiest matchups, and we've seen CARs offense actually be successful too, so hopefully the script stays manageable or even favorable for him at certain points. If I like Kyler, I have to like pass catchers, Marvin Harrison in the 4 weeks since the bye has a 22% target share, but with a good 13.2 aDOT, and he is almost at the bottom of the 5K range, that is very cheap. I want to say Wilson is an option too, but with MHJ so cheap i'll only have him in big stacks. McBride for PPR sites is insane, as he has a 35% target share, but his aDOT of 4.3 doesn't get you as excited. Conner has had 5 straight games with at least 4 targets, my only issue is the glaring matchup, the high ownership projection, my lean towards Kylers breakout game, and the first time he's priced over 7K. I get it if you want to go here, but I'll be fading this week.
In the L4 weeks Legette had a 18.5% target share, with him out, this should rise floors. Thielens 4 games he's had a 24% target share/10.5 aDOT, he could be in for a huge day as the other 2 options are both Q as well. I will note, Coker hit 87% of snaps last week, and had a 12 aDOT/22% target share, he is one of my favorite punt/salary saving options so far. Hubbard is great, he is sitll in the 6K range, and has almost hit 100% of snaps in b2b games, there is no competition here. No issues going here, but I don't know how many panthers I want to roster.
TEN@IND
Titans have a meh P/RB matchup.
Colts have a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Rudolph has a meh pressure rate situation, and a bad pass potential. Pollard?? has a bad rush potential.
Richardson has a great pressure rate situation. Taylor has a meh rush potential.
Titans TTR is T-18th (meh).
Colts TTR is 8th.
Pace of play is T-6th. O/U Rank is T-9th (meh).
- With Pollard in, I am unfortunately avoiding this backfield. In wks 7-9 with rudolph, Ridley had an insane 31% target share/13.1 aDOT, he is my favorite/only option I like.
Taylor has had a bad PPR floor with AR back, never more than 2 targets in L4 with AR, averaging 1.25/g. He is a bellcow that can play over 90% of snaps, but I don't love it and AR can vulture too as he has 4 rush TDs in his 4 games of returning. Pittman only option outside of maybe AR that I'd play. He has a 27.5% target share in his L4 with a fine 10 aDOT. I GUESS Mitchell is a fine salary saver/punt option.
DET@CHI
Lions have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Bears have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Gibbs has a good rush potential.
Williams has a bad pass potential.
Lions TTR is 3rd (great).
Bears TTR is 16th.
Pace of play is T-6th. O/U Rank is 1st (good).
- Gibbs. I will have a lot of him, we've waited for this moment for DFS/Fantasy in either direction (Gibbs or Montgom missing). L4 weeks LaPorta has played 90%+ of snaps, and is averaging just under 2 RZ targets/g, he is viable. If wanting to stack this game, DET does have the 3rd highest TT, but I'll be underweight other passing options, sorry ASB.
I know Roschon is back, so Swift concerns me a bit, but he is 5K range, and has no more injury designation, I think he is an interesting low owned tourney option. The bears WRs is a tough thing to pick. They all play a ton, they are all cheap, and they all have benefits that reflect it too. But for Moore to be 5K range with a 35% target share over his L3, Idc that his aDOT is 6.9, that is just so cheap. Imo Allen at 28.5% but with an aDOT over 11 feels the same way. I think Odunze can easily finish as the top WR on a week to week basis for this team, but he is only 200/600 cheaper than Allen/Moore, and I have to draw a line. Moore>Allen>>>Odunze for me. I do know this game will be cold/chilly, so I am underweight the passing options, but I will have some exposure.
Sunday 4PMs/Main Slate (Cont.)
MIN@SEA
Vikes have a good P/RB matchup.
Seahawks have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Darnold has a good pressure rate situation, and a good pass potential.
Geno? has a good pressure rate situation. Walker~ has a bad rush potential.
Vikings TTR is T-9th.
Seahawks TTR is 17th (meh).
Pace of play is T-8th. O/U Rank is T-9th (meh).
- I personally think these defenses are a bit better than they are showing, plus this will be the wettest game of the slate, the MIN WR options seem overpriced imo. I think Jones is viable, but he struggles to get to 60% of snaps, and one slipped fumble and I know his playing time will drop more, probably passing. Hockenson may be my most played player from this team but won't be much.
Walker/Charb both healthy, pass, and how can we trust the WR options that are priced with geno, now with Howell. Maybe a dart throw to Metcalf, but I'll most likely be avoiding.
NEP@BUF
Pats have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
Bills have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
Maye has a bad pressure rate situation.
Allen has a great pressure rate situation, and great pass potential. Cook has a great rush potential.
Pats TTR is 22nd (bad/last).
Bills TTR is 1st (great).
Pace of play is 13th (meh). O/U Rank is T-3rd (good).
- Stevenson will always grade out as an option when he is priced in the 5K range, we know he has 20+ opp upside, and on paper is in a good matchup, but I know there are a couple options to look at around this price, and the game could get out of hand. Boutte is a cheap punt option I don't mind, he plays the most, and while his 17% target share is meh, he has a 14 aDOT, and the pass volume should be there. Henry is the only other option I'd consider, he has a 24% target share, and a decent TE aDOT of 7.1.
Allen is priced up so much, but he is involved in practically every play/td for this team, and nobody has his floor/ceiling combo. The ONLY fear is a blowout, but if it isn't early Cook/Davis rush TDs, that should mean he is at 3+ scores already. With Kincaid AND Coleman back last week, Cooper was non existent (wtf), Hollins is not worth it, Samuel saw a big drop in playing time. Shakir still had a 22% target share but just a 5 aDOT, he is cheap enough that I don't mind, but what I really liked seeing was Kincaid jump right to a 22% target share, and a 12 aDOT, which actually outpaced every single WR last week. I like him. I will note, I still make take a shot on cooper where mass entering, with the hopes he is utilized more after last weeks dud.
JAC@LVR
Jags have a great P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Raiders have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Jones has a good pass potential.
AOC?! has a good pressure rate situation. Mattison~ has a meh rush potential.
Jags TTR is T-18th (meh).
Raiders TTR is T-14th.
Pace of play is 1st (good). O/U Rank is 11th (meh).
- Br. Thomas L2 weeks with Jones has an insane 35.6% target share/7.7 aDOT, those numbers, I like some of the 5K WRs more, but he is viable. Strange is PPR floor ready, in his first start he saw over 80% of snaps, and had a 28% target share, we take that all day. IF we want to avoid the passing options, which I get, we may have to consider Etienne again finally. Last week he had a season high 73% snap count, and ifnished with 19 opps (5 targets), if this is a sign of things to come, he will not be in the 5K range next week.
AOC's last full game was wk13. Meyers finished with a 32% target share/11.3 aDOT, another 5K WR that is too cheap imo. The real monster to consider is bowers, as that week he had a 41% target share/7.7 aDOT, he concentrates on his best options, and realizes that is his best chance to succeed, both of these guys are viable imo, we just need JAC not to fall behind, which I don't think they will.
SFO@MIA
49ers have a great P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Dolphins have a great RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Purdy has a good pressure rate situation.
Tua has a bad pass potential.
49ers TTR is T-9th.
Dolphins TTR is T-11th.
Pace of play is 16th (bad/last). O/U Rank is 7th.
- Is Taylor the guy? If so, he is obviously to cheap at 5.2K. In the 2 weeks without CMC Jennings/Kittle were the options to look at. Jennings has a 31% target share/11.9 aDOT, again another cheap 5K option that looks great on paper, I don't think we are paying up this week imo. Kittle has one of the highest ceilings among TEs on a week to week basis, he has the best aDOT of 12.8, and a great target share of 23.6%, I think people deciding between him/mcbride/bowers can make or break you, and Kittle may be my favorite (if I stick to meyers/MHJ especially).
Achanes PPR floor is just insane, and maybe with no waddle that goes higher? The problem for me is he does nothing on the ground, and if he doesn't score, you will be eating a big chunk of salary. He also doesn't have the 70%+ snap counts as the guys priced around him (and theres are more like 80-90%+). Washington is a punt/salary saving option, as he saw the biggest snap jump with waddles in game injury. Hill imo is always a tourney option, he could see a vaulted target share now too. Joonu is priced weirdly, idk if I just don't want him to work or not, but his aDOT has been pathetic, but I know no waddle, he has TD equity, etc., I'll still be fading for now.
