Sunday 1PMs/Main Slate
LAC@KCC
Chargers have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Chiefs have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Herbert has a bad pressure rate situation.
Mahomes has a meh pressure rate situation. Pacheco? has a good rush potential.
Chargers TTR is 20th (meh).
Chiefs TTR is T-13th.
Pace of play 12th (meh). O/U Rank is T-9th (meh).
- Hampton played just 31% of snaps to Vidals 69% of snaps, but had 15 opps (2 targets) comapred to 17 opps (3 targets) --- Do I like that they are in the 5K range, Yes, and maybe in tourneys if you think Hampton gets to 50% snaps and 20+ opps, he could strike value, but I still am going to wait and see approach me thinks. If you look at snap counts/production, Ladd is the only WR trending upwards, over his L2, he has a 25% target share with a big time 16.8 aDOT, he is fairly priced in the 6K range and someone I will keep in my pool. Allen/QJ, especially QJ, are just losing their luster --- QJ doesn't have the aDOT he once used to (4.5 L2), and is now dealing with a groin injury --- I guess a case can be made for Allen in the 4K range, I won't talk someone off of him if they have conviction. Gadsden is overpriced for his recent production too imo, and has lost his RZ usage for the time being as well. I will be on Harris again if QJ is out, as he is practically min priced.
Pacheco is a 30% snap guy since his return, and we know Hunt has the bulk of RZ work --- if we could predict that to slightly go in Pachecos favor, I can be talked into him in tourneys at 4K range, but pass. I kind of feel the same for Hunt --- he can absolutely get a TD or 2, but without it, he isn't even 2x'ing this 5k range, I can be convinced for tourneys of course, but at the moment, I don't see a reason for the risk. Kelce is back into the 4K range, he hasn't been great, but he has 3-4x'd this salary a handful of times this year, we like the range he has, and he could be low owned, so I understand a play on him. If no hollywood, if you want to HR hit for thornton at min price, be my guest. Worthy feels cheap at 4.5K, he has an ok target share of 16% L2, and an 11.3 aDOT, so I understand the lean in his direction. and then there is Rice, the guy has a 33% target share, he gets a ton of RZ looks from Mahomes, and has more YAC than Air yards over his L2, I can see an 8+ 100+ 1+ any given week with him --- I don't like his price, when his aDOT is a measely 4.7, but I think he can still 3x+ this high salary. I spent to much time talking about guys I'm 50-50 on, but maybe thats just the result of playing with mahomes and the up and down season they've had.
BAL@CIN
Ravens have a great P/RB matchup.
Bengals have a good P/RB matchup.
Henry has a great rush potential.
Burrow has a good pressure rate situation.
Ravens TTR is 5th (great).
Bengals TTR is T-9th (good).
Pace of play is 5th. O/U Rank is 2nd (great).
- I know Lamar looks off (and man I hope he figures it out for my fantasy playoffs), but he is the cheapest he has ever been this year (6.4K), and even last week on just 2 total TDs and 219 yards passing he 3.5x'd this salary, the matchup is just as good/better this week, and maybe each passing week he is getting healthier and healthier, he can obviously be considered in tourneys. I don't think you combine both -- even though you could to get different --- but you either play lamar, or the super popular Henry. My gut says to fade the exposure in tourneys, as we know he has no PPR floor, and needs the 100+ 1+ to even be semi worth it, so there's risk for a player over 7K. If we like Lamar we can take him naked, or pair him with a pass catching option, and imo there's really only 2 choices (sorry andrews). Since Lamars return, there is 4 games where the crew all suited up, and Flowers has had a 27.5% target share/11 aDOT, my gripe with him is he isn't getting close range TDs unfortunately, so we really need that 100+ yard bonus to be happy, and if he happens to break a long one for a TD, then that's our gravy train. Likely and Andrews have 7 of the 10 RZ targets to pass catchers from Lamar over the L2, and Likely overall is #2 on the team in target share at 18%, with a better aDOT than andrews at 9.4 (vs 7.6), oh and he's cheaper. Imo go here.
No Higgins!, In Burrows return 2 weeks ago we have the same scenario. Chase landed on a 32% target share/12.2 aDOT --- if you can afford, go ahead and fire him up. It is also worth nothing that Brown had 22 opps (7 targets) in that game as well, While I will be having shares of both --- it wasn't Iosivas that saw his usual jump (despite the 1 catch for 29 yard TD), but Mr. Tinsley! The guy is almost floor price, and he had 9 targets in that game (74% snap share) which equaled a 20.5% target share, while being at a 13.9 aDOT, he is the salary saving punt option that is glaring at the moment --- we don't typically want to play all these guys together, but a combination of 2, or atleast one-offs looks like a must.
NYJ@JAC
Jets have a bad P/RB matchup.
Jags have a great P/RB matchup.
Cook? has a meh pressure rate situation, and a bad pass potential. Hall? has a bad rush potential.
Lawrence has a great pressure rate situation, and a great pass potential. Etienne has a good rush potential.
Jets TTR is 25th (bad).
Jags TTR is 4th (great).
Pace of play is 7th. O/U rank is T-9th (meh).
- In a losing script Hall had just 1 target from Cook, I can't trust it, and if he gets out of hand, hello I. Davis. He did attempt 30 passes last week, and AD Mitchell/Metchie/Taylor made up about 70% of his targets (19.4%/25.8%/25.8), with aDOTs of 13/6/5.... everyone is cheap, I still like AD over Metchie, but I also want to note that Taylor and that 26%~ target share is now up for grabs as well. Rucket is min price for a TE, and is said to be more of the one to have an elevated role. Pick your poison on any of these 3 guys, I probably go AD or Ruckert depending on roster construction. I want to note that Cook is just 4.3K, I know he looked terrible (0 TDs, 2 picks, 2 fumbles -- none lost), but the weahter is optimal, the script should be there, and another 30+ pass attempt game, he can easily 3x+ this salary, it doesn't take much to get to12+ FPs as a QB.
I've been touting ETN for awhile now as a low owned tourney option that has potential for a good game, and he has hit in like 5~ of the L6 weeks... my issue now is his exposure will be greater after a 2 TD game, and a matchup vs NYJ, and he is priced at his season high, despite b2b games with just 1 target..... I think this is where I begi to fade. I think BTJ is due for a splash play/game he has a big 22.2 aDOT, but I can't stomach it when I am looking at Meyers, who has a huge 28.5% target share in games they both played together, and Meyers has 3 RZ targets to BTJ's 0, Meyers>BTJ for now for me. Strange is fairly priced and can be considered. If you want to dart throw a cheap option that nobody will be playing because of all the other cheap options, it is Tim Patrick IF Parker is out (which doesn't look like it), but last week he had 4 RZ targets alone, with aa 19% target share/12.3 aDOT, nobody with those metrics should be in the 3K range.
ARI@HOU
Cards have a bad P/RB matchup.
Texans have a good P/RB matchup.
Brissett has a meh pressure rate situation, and a bad pass potential. Bam~ has a bad rush potential.
Cards TTR is 21st (bad).
Texans TTR is 6th (good).
Pace of play is 8th. O/U Rank is T-6th (meh).
- They didn't price him high enough, but I can at least respect that his price has finally gone up. In the 3 games without MHJ, Wilson has an insane 33.5% target share/11.9 aDOT -- maybe he is just an alpha WR similar to Pukas breakout 2? years ago.... that target share is an average of 16.33, and he's never had fewer than 15 targets --- HELLO! Now the matchup is tough, but maybe that just lowers his exposure, anybody seeing that much volume can still be considered in 6K range. If you aren't playing Wilson, you have to consider Mcbride, he is only averaging 10 targets/g in those 3 games --- I say only, but is there any other TE with that type of floor/ceiling combo, I don't think so.... my only issue is he is priced at 7.4K which is a HEFTY price for this position. Not sure yet how I approach. IF Demercado is out again, one of Bam/Carter seem like value plays for their PPR floor while in the 4K range.
Marks saw a season high 87% of snaps last week, and had 29 opps (3 targets), the matchup is good, the probably script is good, and there is no threat for touches, it is semi Dowdle-esque when he was breaking out a handful of weeks ago. They haven't moved Collins price in 3 weeks despite b2b 20~ FPs performances... the guy has a 30.5% target share and a big time 17 aDOT, he should be over 7K, and imo is one of my fave options. Schultz is fine for full PPR sites. Higgins is cheap enough to, he is clearly the #2 option now (has been for a few weeks), and has a respectable 17%/11.9 metrics, for someone just breaking out of the pit of 3K range. (4.2K).
WAS@NYG
Commanders have a great P/RB matchup.
Giants have a great P/RB matchup.
Mariota has a good pressure rate situation, and a good pass potential. Rodriquez?? has a great rush potential.
Dart has a bad pressure rate situation, but a great pass potential. Singletary/Tracy have a great rush potential.
Commanders TTR is 16th.
Giants TTR is T-9th (good).
Pace of play is 4th. O/U Rank is 4th (good).
- Mariota atleast 3x'd+ this salary in his last 3 starts, and he only had mclaurin in one of them, plus they have a nonexistent run game, sign me up. In that one game, McLaurin had a 31% target share with a big time 15.8 aDOT --- the matchup couldn't be better too, and in that game Ertz had a huge 29% target share, and that is no longer there. Mach5 is one of the top options this week. If you want to take a stab with a punt TE in bates/sinnott/cager, be my guest, maybe I grab sinnott in one, idk. Deebo is fine, but we know he doesn't have the aDOT and he is priced similarly to mclaurin. Brown would be my #2 option, he is almost min price, and burks/lane took a back seat in his return last week.
Dart had his season low in carries in his return from a concussion 2 weeks ago, but maybe the bye gave him more time to recover, either way, he has 24+ point upside, and they still have him priced in the 5k range. Tracy was starting to separate from singletary in playing time, as he had b2b 23, and 24 opp (4 targets in each) games before getting hurt in week 13... if we think he is all systems go, he could be a pivot off dart/steal at 5.5K, but if he is back to his 5050 role until he looks himself completely, I want no part of a max 12~ opp. guy. WanDale had a big time 33% target share in darts last game, the aDOT wasn't great at 4.6, but on PPR sites, he is fine with me. I'll probably pass on Slayton, but he did lead the team in aDOT at 15, so I wouldn't be shocked if he hits a HR, Hodgins unfortunately wasn't used much with Dart, but he was #2 in snaps, at 89%, and he is close to floor price, he is a pivot off of those other 3K cheapies. But lets get to Theo Johnson, in Darts last game, he also had a 33% target share, with a big time 12.9 aDOT for a TE ---- and in weeks 4 through 9, he led in RZ targets with dart, by more than double the second highest person --- he feels wayyy to cheap at 3.5K.
CLV@CHI
Browns have a good P/RB matchup.
Bears have a bad P/RB matchup.
Sanders has a good pressure rate situation. Judkins has a meh rush potential.
Caleb has a bad pass potential.
Browns TTR is 23rd (bad).
Bears TTR is T-13th.
Pace of play is 2nd (good). O/U Rank is T-12th (bad/last).
- Keep in mind this is tied for the lowest O/U on the slate. Sanders is still to cheap, but I can't take him this week, the temps are supposed to have a feel in the negative degrees, and I can see this being a pound fest on both sides. Judkins is a fine play if you want, if you do want a pass catcher, we have to continue to go back to fannin, last week alone he had a 29% target share, and still no Njoku.
I am not playing these pass catchers --- Swift/Monangai look like fine plays in the 5K range, but they are going to both float around 17 opps +- 3~, and you have to guess the right TD scorer, I probably pass.
BUF@NEP
Bills have a meh P/RB matchup.
Pats have a great RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Cook has a good rush potential.
Maye has a good pass potential.
Bills TTR is 7th (good).
Pats TTR is 12th (good).
Pace of play is 16th (bad/last). O/U Rank is 3rd (good).
- Having a hard time with this guy, mainly because there are a handful of receiving options where any of them can be the guy for that week for their respective QBs, but it is going to be the main game people key in on, the total is good too, but the pace is the worst, and we have freezing temps/20~mph gusts, my head says to be underweight the passing options/qb's.
Having said that, Allen obviously has the highest range at QB on any given sunday, so if you like him, I won't stop you. I'm concerned about Cook, he is at 8K, and only JUST 3x'd this once in the last 6 weeks, and he now has one of the hardest matchups on paper --- the only good thing is we know he can breakout, and he will have low single digit ownership, so I could be convinced. No WR last week got to even 60% of snaps, that is ugly for fantasy. In Kincaids return, he and Knox made up a total of 44.5% of Allens targets --- Knox had a big time 26%/just 4.9 aDOT, but he is 3K, and I guess would be my most favorable stacking option/one-off.
It looks like last week Stevenson regain his lead role --- now was that because of the 2 TD+ lead they had? Idk, but they both had RZ looks, and Stevenson ran more routes --- if you believe this continues, He is a steal at 5.1K, if you think it goes back to Henderson, than take a chance at 6.1K, but it does not look as appetizing --- I would take a shot or 2 if mass entering, but that's it. Diggs or Hollins would be the WRs to consider, but Diggs feels overpriced, and has an 11% target share over L2 weeks. Hollins is at least cheap and has led in WR metrics, so he'd be a stacking candidate. The other is Henry, but we are starting to love a lot of TEs, and I don't like that, but metrics are metrics, over his L2, he has a 25.4% target share/8 aDOT --- you could do much worse.
LVR@PHI
Raiders have a meh P/RB matchup.
Eagles have a good P/RB matchup.
Geno has a bad pressure rate situation, and a bad pass potential. Jeanty has a bad rush potential.
Hurts has a great pass potential.
Raiders TTR is 26th (bad/last)
Eagles TTR is 8th (good).
Pace of play is 15th (meh). O/U Rank is T-12th (bad/last)
- This offense can only get better this year with Pickett --- right?, it is a small sample size but his aDOT was almost 1.5 yards deeper than Genos --- over 30 passes that is 45 extra yards. I'm not totally sure what I want to do with Jeanty. On 11 pass attempts last week, he checked it down to his RB (mostert) just once, and if Jeanty isn't having his 5-8 target floor, he may struggle to hit value, behind an Oline that has consistently kept him at 2/3 ypc over his last 6~ games, I will note that he is in the 5K range for the first time in his career/this year. It was a small sample size, but Bech had a 36% target share when Pickett came in, and Tucker/Lockett/Bowers weren't benched, he finished second in snaps at 82%, so he is getting playing time, and maybe he doesn't hit 36%, but at 3.2K, I think 20% he still smashes. We know Bowers has ceiling upside, but I'll be underweight at best, same with Tucker but at least he looks more affordable.
I like Barkley, we know he has slate breaking upside, but in 3 of his L4 he has been capped to just 2 targets, and it took a 52 yard TD to break 100 yards for first time in 6 games, and even still, just 3x'd this salary --- I see reasons to fade him BUT I will say, this is the first time in 4 weeks where they should be playing with a lead, so I understand if you want to go here. The passing volume for Hurts L3 games have been great, It has led Aj Brown to avg 11.67 targets/g. His metrics of 33.6% target share/12.5 aDOT has him as pretty much the #1 WR over that span, yet he is priced a good step below the top dogs. I wouldn't say leave out Goedert/Smith --- but the concentration to him has been clear, and there is a downfall that I alluded to earlier where they are playing in a positive run script, it could really lower the pass attempt volume, hurting all prospects.
Sunday 4PMs/Main Slate (Cont.)
GBP@DEN
Packers have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Broncos have a meh P/RB matchup.
Love has a meh pressure rate situation but a good pass potential.
Nix has a great pressure rate situation,
Packers TTR is 15th.
Broncos TTR is 18th.
Pace of play is 9th. O/U Rank is T-6th (meh).
- Love has been good of recent, and his WRs are healthy again (just not Kraft), they've also dropped his price, and nobody is probably going here vs DEN, so I can be convinced in tourneys. Having said that, you should do a big game stack if so, because in wins, Love really limits his pass attempts, and there are a lot of guys to spread the ball around too.... in 3 of his L4 wins, he was at or below 25 total attempts, and last week no player hit 20% target share, that's a cap of 5 total targets when looking at those metrics. Again, go all in, or just fade imo. I will note, Doubs/Watson/Reed are the choices, don't go to wicks/golden/melton/etc. Only pass catcher I'd consider as a one-off is Musgrave, he finally saw targets last week (19% share), with a 14 aDOT, and he is min priced. The RB situation is interesting because it is a 4pm start --- If Jacobs is out, I'd have some Wilson, but you need to be able to do late game swaps with other positions --- it could be a good leverage play as not everyone will be doing that.
Nix has kind of been the opposite of Love, in 4 of their L5 wins, he has hit ATLEAST 37 pass attempts... and there is a chance they are playing from behind in this one. Since the bye (L2 games), Bryant has overtaken the WR2 spot over Franklin, but he is now out, and a 15% target share now gets dispersed. Imo, I don't love franklin as he is not a discount on Sutton somehow, but I also understand how good he looked for that 3/4~ week window. Engram is pretty cheap, I get it if you like it, his aDOT has been terrible though. I really like just Sutton as a pass catcher, if you want to dart throw Mims if you believe he gets more usage with no Bryant be my guest. Harvey however is coming off a season high 68% snap share, and had 23 opps (6 targets), and he is just 6K, the matchup looks tough on paper, but volume is volume and his ownership could be low.
IND@SEA
Colts have a bad P/RB matchup.
Seahawks have a meh P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Rivers? has a good pressure rate situation, but a bad pass potential.
Darnold has a great pressure rate situation, and a great pass potential.
Colts TTR is 24th (bad).
Seahawks TTR is 3rd (great).
Pace of play is 13th (meh). O/U Rank is T-6th (meh).
- Not getting conned into Rivers, there are a ton of cheap QBs around his price with better floor/ceilings. My biggest issue though is my mind thinks Taylor may get the rock 25-30 times lmao, but Seattle is a team that can push the pace. I don't have as much interest in deep threats, so pierce for me is out. Warren has had the shortest aDOT of the bunch, I have to decide if I go to Pittman (maybe downs) who are both relatively cheap, or use up my TE spot on Warren, And getting back to Taylor, idk if we can spend 8.5K on him, but I am interested to see how much Rivers targets him/routes he runs.
JSN makes me nervous, because in SEA wins, Darnold struggles to get to even 30 pass attempts, but even still, over his L3 he has a 30.8% target share, with a 10.5 aDOT, and in another blowout within about 2.5~ quarters we saw him drop a 40 bomb on TEN, so I won't cross him off the list. Shaheed/Kupp look cheap, same with Barner actually too, but I'd save them if you want to do a bigger game stack here, the target share isn't incredible, and again, if we even get 30 pass attempts they're capping at 4-5~ targets. Pick your poison at RB, Walker obviously has more upside, but charb has the td equity ---- either way, none get the opportunities you want for the 5K value we seek.
CAR@NOS
Panthers have a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Saints have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
Hubbard? has a meh rush potential.
Neal? has a meh rush potential.
Panthers TTR is 17th.
Saints TTR is 19th (meh).
Pace of play is 1st (good). O/U Rank is 11th (meh).
- What is this backfield become?! Dowdle only played 40%~ of snaps last week, the first time he has lost lead back duties since taking lead back duties. He still had 20 opps (2 targets), but Hubbard was at 60%~ of snaps, and had 19 opps (2 targets), and if he is the uptrending guy (I'm not sure) I want to be apart of it, as he is just 4.6K to dowdles 6.6K --- if mass entering, do 1 dowdle, as he will be very small single digit ownerships, and if he is the 60% guy, we could see a 30opp game at anytime. If you want to avoid the backfield, or think NOS can actually set the pace (L6), all 3 of his WRs have aDOTs over 10 --- Similar to what I said about Sanders (CLV) last week --- There is a boom game coming here, we just need the recipe to come together. If you take out his 2 target performance last week vs LAR, McMillan has been good since the bye as well, as he has a 26% target share/11.7 aDOT, at 6K, I think that is fair. The other 2~ options Legette/Coker are virtually identical, even in price, pick your poison. The TEs are all floor price, but they play 3, and none have even like an 8% target share, there are other values to go to.
Since Shaheeds departure/start of Shough, Olave has a 27% target share, with a 14.2 aDOT --- those are a step below alpha numbers, but he should be priced higher than 6.2K. Juwan grades out ok, only for full PPR formats though, however I don't like just 1 RZ target in L4, and his aDOT is the worst of the bunch. I touted Vele last week, and needed some garbage time to be happy (although 5 targets in 3K range is good for me), but still think a 19% target share/11.5 aDOT and practically every down work is my definition of a salary saver we like. Another week without Kamara, and Neal also looks like a value play, his price barely moved, and he is coming off a 20 opp (1 target) game, and that was in a win, the prior 2 weeks he avg'd 5 targets/g, I think he is one of the better 5K options.
DET@LAR
Lions have a bad P/RB matchup.
Rams have a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Goff has a great pressure rate situation, but a meh pass potential. Gibbs~ has a meh rush potential.
Stafford has a good pressure rate situation, and a good pass potential. Kyren~ has a good rush potential.
Lions TTR is T-9th (good).
Rams TTR is 1st (great).
Pace of play is 11th (meh). O/U Rank is 1st (great).
- In 5 games with Campbell taking over play calling duties, Gibbs has hit double digits in all 5, 22+ in 4, and 37+ in 3 of them --- averaging 7 targets/g (never less than 4), and has had 3 straight games around 70% of snaps --- his season high, and maybe career highs in games Montgomery played. That's my long way of saying, idc the matchup, if you can afford him/want him, play him. Since the Laporta/Campbell injury/switch, ASB (taking out week 13) has had a 32.4% target share, with a 10.7 aDOT (he was also more of a possession giy), but that combo of metrics puts him as alpha dog status, and would be a pivot off of Gibbs imo. Williams is fine, he is getting opportunities, but looking at the same window as I did ASB, he has just an 18% target share --- there are a ton of guys in this range that are 20%+, I would stick to him in just larger game stacks. If Kennedy is out (currently Q), TeSlaa can be a salary savor option ---- he hasn't got much targets, but he is on the field a lot. They are all floor price, but as recently as last week they played 3 TEs, non hittiing even 60% of snaps, I'm passing for now.
It is sad to say this, and I know he has TD equity, but we just can't play this new non workshore mentality McVay has. Kyrens L5 weeks has seen him hit a height of 17 opps (3 targets), which was 5 weeks ago lol, but he has had 13 or less carries, and 2 or less targets in 4 straight, we can't pay for a guy almost 7K like that. Puka in like 1 half of football had a 35.5% target share, 13.3 aDOT, and finished with a 7-167-2 stat line.... The numbers over the L3 weeks dont look much different (33.7%/9.3) -- you could TD hunt with Adams, or you can get explosive upside with Puka, give me Puka --- plus there are more likely scenarios where DET sets the pace, which hasn't been the case for much of the last few weeks . Parkinson isn't the near min price option we want, but he still is relatively cheap, the aDOT is trash, but he gets targets, and important ones at that, as he has 7 RZ targets over his L3 alone, he is a good way to get exposure to this offense.
TEN@SFO
Titans have a great P matchup, bad RB matchup.
49ers have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Ward has a good pressure rate situation. Pollard~ has a bad rush potential.
Purdy has a great pass potential. CMC has a bad rush potential.
Titans TTR is 22nd (bad).
49ers TTR is 2nd (great).
Pace of play is 6th. O/U Rank is 5th.
- Pollard had 25 opps last week, but no targets ---- yes he is cheaper, but similar to Henry, he would need 100+ 1+ to really pay off, and I'm not sure we get that week in and week out. Since Ayomanors return, it is still Dike who looks to be Wards guy, he has a 20% target shar/9.4 aDOT, and leads (not by much) in RZ targets too. I'm not in love with most of this side, but as one-offs, in a game that should project a good pass script, I get going here for a salary saver.
Doesn't need to be said, but just incase, nobody has the floor/ceiling combo in fantasy as high as CMC, so if you have conviction/the money, go for it. I just still don't understand Jennings mispricing, and Pearsalls.... they're within $100 of eachother, Jennings needs to be higher, he has a 25% target share since Pearsalls return, with a 10 aDOT and is only 5.2K, I like that. Pearsall however needs to be cheaper, as he is at 11.8%/9.9, and also is down in RZ targets to Jennings (1 to 3). If you want to save on not taking McBride, but still want a top flight TE, here's your stop. He leads the team over the L3 weeks in target share, at 27.7%, and has a good TE aDOT at 8.2, while tied for the team lead in RZ targets as well, I'm fine with him too.
