Sunday 1PMs/Main Slate
ARI@TBB
Cards have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Bucs have a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Brissett has a bad pressure rate situation. Benson? has a bad rush potential.
Cards TTR is 12th.
Bucs TTR is T-7th (good).
Pace of play is T-9th (meh). O/U Rank is T-2nd.
- I'll start by saying M. Carter is only 4.2K, last week he 2x'd+ this only 8 opps (3 targets)...... and if Benson/Demercado are out again, and Bam Knight, who is Q, was inefficient last week, I think he only sees his opportunities scale higher this week. 1 TD and he is beyond optimal, but even 12 opps (4 targets), and he should exceed value, I'll keep him on my tourney list. If MHJ is in, we haven't seen a true Mi. Wilson improved share w/ MHJ yet, do I think one can/will succeed? Yes... but I think I'll fade it unless I see ownership very low on them. The one tried and true option is McBride, he is averaging 11.16 targets/g with Jacoby (never fewer than 9), and averaging 1 TD a game to, 8-80-1 seems like a weekly floor for him, at a position where production is hard to come by.
I am going with the assumption that Teddy is stating --- in a short 1 half sample size, Egbuka had a 28.5% target share with Teddy, and who I liked at first glance was Otton and his 21% target share, but I was hoping to see a 3K price range on him, so I'll temper my expectations. The other twist in the arm is Bucky, I assume he won't be all systems go, and he is priced as if he was his old self (7K), I don't think I want to try up my salary with the higher probability of less expected touches -- if that makes sense.
JAC@TEN
Jags have a great P/RB matchup.
Titans have a meh P/RB matchup.
Lawrence has a great pressure rate situation. Etienne~ has a good rush potential.
Ward has a bad pass potential. Pollard~ has a bad rush potential.
Jags TTR is T-5th (good).
Titans TTR is 15th (meh).
Pace of play is 8th (meh). O/U Rank is 5th (meh).
- Etienne has consistently hovered around the 20~ opps mark, with an ok PPR floor, and people are finally starting to notice --- my concern is not only that, but he is also priced at 6.5K now, not the beloved the 5K range, and he's had some pretty failed performances this year. What I have more interest in is the passing game --- we just saw Ward have some success for TEN, and if he has some knew confidence/figured some NFL things out, maybe we can get a bit of a higher scoring game, and Trevor has back arguably his healthiest offense --- BTJ/Strange, Meyers, and Parker filling in for Hunter. I will be doing some game stacks in this one.
I recommend Ward last week, and if you stacked him with Dike, it paid you. His price only went up $100, despite 5x'ing+ this salary. He has shown a bit of a rushing floor post bye (avg'ing 35 yards/g), and also averaging 39.5 attempts/g ---- one was a positive pass script, one was completely neutral, but still they are dogs, and imo, we can expect 36+ pass attempts again. I hope Ayomanor, and even Okonwko are out, because it will rise these floors, but either way I will be playing Dike, and/or Helm, which is almost stone min, with Ward. Pass at RB, although I'll point out that both are now below 5K, which idk if I've ever seen for starting RBs that aren't newly a starter because of injury/benching, so I guess I could see a reason to go here, but I'm sticking to the passing attack.
SFO@CLV
49ers have a bad P/RB matchup.
Browns have a great P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Purdy has a meh pressure rate situation. CMC has a bad rush potential.
Sanders has a meh pass potential. Judkins has a meh rush potential.
49ers TTR is 10th.
Browns TTR is 18th (bad).
Pace of play is 1st (good). O/U Rank is 10th (bad/last).
- I wish the weather was a bit better, because I was actually excited to take a look at this one, but I think it plays a bit ugly, a touch like the phi/chi game on Friday. Sanders is still to cheap, but I think they really on the ground game on both sides/dink and dunks, and we saw in the RZ they used Judkins as wildcat, which lowers his ceiling/floor a touch more. The matchup is tough for SF, Kittle isn't cheap, Pearsall is to expensive, I can see taking a shot with Jennings at that price, but there are much better situations I am sure. Imo, CMC needs 10+ targets to hit value this week, and he could absolutely do it, I think if mass entering I'll include him in a lineup or two just incase, and strictly because I think a majority of the market will be fading.
Sanders either threw the ball to Fannin/Sampson at or below the line of scrimmage, or bombed it 20+ yards to tillman/jeudy/bond ---- I don't think the latter will be happening.... and I think they play this game a bit closer than the odds think. Fannin isn't badly priced, and he is coming off a 33% target share, so I don't mind one-offing, but atleast as of now, I think i'd rather go down to helm in that TEN game above. Judkins I have interest in. He actually had 0 targets last week, which we don't like on PPR formats, but the fact that every RZ possession could be him handling the ball gives him massive equity, and I could also see 20+ opps this time around.
LAR@CAR
Rams have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Panthers have a bad P/RB matchup.
Stafford has a bad pressure rate situation, but a great pass potential. Kyren has a good rush potential.
Young has a bad pass potential. Dowdle~ has a meh rush potential.
Rams TTR is 1st (great).
Panthers TTR is 17th (meh).
Pace of play is 6th. O/U Rank is T-2nd.
- I like Kyren, but he isn't the 80%+ snap count guy anymore, actually hasn't been a 70%+ snap count guy since the bye (4+ games), and he doesn't have much of a PPR floor (1.5 avg over his L4), if he doesn't score a TD, he is struggling to 2x this salary. While the matchup is nice, I also feel like the Rams are very comfortable throwing in short redzone situations, as Stafford/Adams (not even counting Nacua) are probably the best in the league at it. The only negative is they come expensive --- but they have the best TTR, and the pace/environment aren't bad, and you can make an argument that a matchup vs CAR could scare suitors away too. For tourneys, you have to take a shot.... the offense is so concentrated, Adams/Puka make up over 50% of the target share, and other plays on this team struggle to even get to a 10% number.
We saw the first truly negative game script since Dowdles take over, and he played his lowest snap%, and finished with just 10 opps ---- this is a higher possibility with this team as opposed to a team that will play as a favorite.... so I have my doubts paying 6.9K for this, as he has just 2.5x+ this once in his L6.... The good thing is, the bringback options on the passing side feel like there is value. McMillan is just 6.1K but has alpha like numbers at 28.7% target share/11.26 aDOT, and can be considered. While I think you can take stabs on Coker, Legette is just mispriced, and not far enough away from Cokers pricing... he has a better target share, 15%, and almost doubles his aDOT at 13.3, we probably need salary relief if playing LAR passing attack, and this is one way to get it.
HOU@IND
Texans have a meh P/RB matchup.
Colts have a bad P/RB matchup.
Stroud? has a good pressure rate situation.
D. Jones has a great pressure rate situation, but a meh pass potential.
Texans TTR is 13th.
Colts TTR is T-5th (good).
Pace of play is 12th (meh). O/U Rank is T-2nd.
- over the L3 games, Marks has really became the de facto #1 option, and he is stuck around 18~ opps/g, but my bigger concern was his 1.33 target average, we want to see that 20 opp potential with a PPR floor when looking for a RB in the 5K range. Now those L3 games coincides with Mills starting at QB... we have stroud back, and in the last 2 games with Stroud, where he was attempting to show that he could be the starter, he did have 4 and 5 targets --- I think he is a viable option. You could argue Collins feels a touch expensive, and he was semi disappointing on the year with Stroud --- I will be underweight. In the 3 games with Collins/Kirk/Higgins/Schultz and Stroud, Kirk had a 17% target share/10 aDOT ---- now that Higgins has jumped Kirk in the depth chart, I have some interest in those metrics while in the 3K range. The only other guy I'd consider is Schultz, but I probably reserve that for game stacks at best.
We have 2 single digit games of Taylors alternated between 2 40+ point games of Taylors.... what do we do with him? I mentioned earlier how I think most people fade CMC, will that mean they jump to Taylor? Idk.... but imo it feels like even a 25 point game kind of disappoints you, and it takes a 100+,1+ with 4+ catches to even get to that area. My initial lean is to fade again. I know the O/U is good, but the matchup feels tough, in neutral to positive rush scripts he hovers around 30 pass attempts, and 4 of there plays hover around 17.5-22.5 target share --- that's about a ceiling of 7 targets. Imo Warren/Pittman are to expensive for that (especially considering they have single digit aDOTs). I think Pierce would only be my one-off/mini stack option (unless you want to pay up for Taylor).
ATL@NYJ
Falcons have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Jets have a great RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Cousins has a good pressure rate situation.
Taylor? has a bad pressure rate situation, and a bad pass potential.
Falcons TTR is 11th.
Jets TTR is 14th (meh).
Pace of play is 5th. O/U Rank is 9th (bad).
- Cousins had a neutral to positive run script, and he still 3x'd+ this salary without getting to 200 passing yards, and only having 23 pass attempts... and now he is up against a depleted NYJ D, and cheap stacking options with London out again.... I think he is considerable in tourneys. The real question is can jets keep it competitive, or at the least force ATL to hurry up a bit/pass. Because while these options are cheap, Cousins only had 23 pass attempts, so there are avenues to failure. Looking at last week, Pitts had a 25% target share with a 12 aDOT --- now picture a 36+ pass attempt game, iif we get that out of a TE at 4K, we take that all day. Mooney or Sills both have some value too if stacking --- Mooney had a big 23 aDOT, and Sills had a 15% target share at almost floor price.
Taylor provided AD Mitchell with a big time 27% target share, with a big time 26 aDOT --- that's nutty, and deserves consideration while close to min price as well, if yo uwant to pivot to Metchie, that's fine, I think in tourneys that is understandable. I do prefer other TEs, but you can do worse than 19%/5 aDOT at a cheap price too, but we can't like all the Jets, and we didn't even get to Hall. Hall is getting plenty of snaps (70%+ L3), and is coming off a 20 opp (4 target) game with Taylor --- we usually love that at the 5K range, and he is right at 6K.
NOS@MIA
Saints have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Dolphins have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Shough has a bad pressure rate situation, but a good pass potential. Neal? has a meh rush potential.
Tua has a good pressure rate situation.
Saints TTR is 16th (meh).
Dolphins TTR is T-7th (good).
Pace of play is 2nd (good). O/U Rank is T-6th (meh).
- Do we trust Neal? I am concerned that he won't be the bellcow we want, as he was practically forced to do that last week and now they have adjusted their depth... also Taysom last week at 10 carries (although just 17 yards) --- if he even gets that type of opportunity again, he could be a steal at 2.7K (close to stone min) --- I think if mass entering I'll approach it both ways. With Shough and no Shaheed, Olave has a 30.5% target share/13.9 aDOT, which are great metrics for 6K range, but the matchup is tough, and the clear advantage is on the ground --- plus part of me thinks we see more taysom, and that will generally hurt the passing options, I'm going to pass. Juwan is to expensive for me.
Tua looks steal worth at 4.9K, but he is coming off B2B games with just 20 pass attempts, and they are home faves --- IF we think NOS can keep the pace, then I would hammer it, otherwise full fade. Waddle/Achane made up 60%+ of the total targets in those games, and if we do think NOS keeps pace, then you love the concentration, and they would be my stacking options. If Waller is out, Dulchich needs to be mentioned, he is at the floor price and has had a 19.5% target share L2.
Sunday 4PMs/Main Slate (Cont.)
MIN@SEA
Vikings have a bad P/RB matchup.
Seahawks have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Wentz? has a meh pressure rate situation, and a bad pass potential. Jones~ has a bad rush potential.
Darnold has a great pass potential.
Vikes TTR is 20th (bad/last).
Seahawks TTR is 2nd (good).
Pace of play is T-9th (meh). O/U Rank is T-6th (meh).
- I'll never talk anyone vaulted into a starting role and being the floor price, with a bit of unknown --- that's Brosmer for you, SEA will be by far the most popular D (rightfully so), but if you want leverage go ahead and try Brosmer. I can see Jones getting to 20+ opps with a PPR floor, so maybe as a one-off if projecting dump offs, can be an option in 5K range. I wantto like JJ, he's starting to get cheap, and maybe new QBs will hone into one guy and force feed it, but I obviously have more worries with this entire offense. I guess same could be said about addison/hock ---- I am fully avoiding unless taking a stab at Brosmer.
SEA may sleep walk through this game, but we felt the same way about last week, and JSN still put up 40 FPs on just 10 targets. Since the acquisition of Shaheed, JSN has a 35.5% target share, and a 12.75 aDOT (which practically matches his season avg). Kupp/Shaheed could be one-off pivots just incase the early flow goes through them over JSN or HR upside hits early in the game but I won't have much. Walker almost gets his first 20 opp game since week 4, and you think as big faves he would get there again, and he finishes with 15 total.... at 5.3K I still like him, especially with a SEA D pairing (if mass entering, and doing that, please make sure to do 1 charb) but I'm not going to be overweight.
LVR@LAC
Raiders have a good RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Chargers have a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Geno? has a bad pressure rate situation, and a bad pass potential. Jeanty has a meh rush potential.
Herbert has a meh pressure rate situation, but a good pass potential. Hampton? has a good rush potential.
Raiders TTR is 19th (bad)
Chargers TTR is 3rd (good).
Pace of play is T-15th (bad/last). O/U Rank is T-6th (meh).
- Jeanty is coming off B2B 8 target games, and hit 25 opps last week, this was in a losing game, and he still hit 80%+ of snaps, he should be higher than 6.4K.... while I want to avoid Tucker/Lockett, and Bowers feels a bit expensive, Mayer is out for this game, which should see this guys as every down players this week, and all ships rise. I will most likely be on just Bowers if going this direcetion, as he feels like he is in no mans land and will be under owned --- but again I prefer Jeanty the most.
We get another crack at Vidal, but he hasn't had a PPR floor, the matchup is tough, and I think we prefer the passing options here. The problem is none of these guys really stand out, over the L3 4 of their players make up 80%~ of the targets, and they are all between 19 and 21.5% target share (16 to 18 total targets btw the 4), and they all had aDOTs of 7 to 9.25.... I'm off Gadsden because of his price, and me liking other TEs, but I won't blame you for going there.... the rest are a toss up, I lean QJ for his big play ability, Ladd for his higher range of outcomes, and Allen for his reliability... pick your poison, but I lean I lean Ladd/Qj >>> Allen/Gadsden.
BUF@PIT
Bills have a great RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Steelers have a great RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Allen has a great pressure rate situation. Cook has a great rush potential.
Rodgers? has a great pressure rate situation, but a meh pass potential. Warren~ has a great rush potential.
Bills TTR is 4th (good).
Steelers TTR is 9th.
Pace of play is T-15th (bad/last). O/U Rank is 1st (good).
- He has a good offense, he actually has shown a consistent PPR floor for first time since the first 4 weeks of season, as it looked to be nonexistent going into Wk10.... but he is typically capped around 20 opps, and he is high 7K, I just can't justify it. We know Allen has, by far, the best floor/ceiling combo of the QBs in this slate, the problem is do we play him naked? since Kincaid went down over the L2, 12 different players had targets, and nobody was at or above a 15% target hare except Shakir (21%) and his terrible 2.7 aDOT. ALL of his options are cheap (coleman 3.5K --- if he suits up --- and he is more expensive than cooks/davis/shavers), so you can easily stack him, but if you pick wrong, you will be going against someone who picked right, so if not going naked, maybe thorw in a few different lineups with different recepients.
Gainwell has really eaten to Warrens production, especially the PPR floor we liked, I know the matchup is nice enough to see a 100+ on the ground, but I don't want to pay 6K+ for it, I'd rather take my chances with Gainwell, especially if you see them playing from a deficit. Metcalf is really the only WR to consider. Over his L3, he has a 26.5% target share/11 aDOT, and he is in the 5K range, we like that even through 6K honestly --- we just need to pick him in games where we think the overall pass volume will be high, as there is potential for the opposite with this team...
. Who knows how long baker can go which what scares me bout Bucs or id love them. As is I’d think Godwin underneath be a good way to keep baker from taking hits.
. Like the idea of attempts, I was wavering with his rush total but agree the attempts should for sure be there.
