Sunday 1PMs/Main Slate
GBP@CHI
Packers have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Bears have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Love has a meh pass potential. Jacobs has a great rush potential.
Williams has a great pressure rate situation, but bad pass potential. Swift has a meh rush potential.
Packers TTR is 9th.
Bears TTR is T-20th (meh).
Pace of play is 6th. O/U Rank is 10th (meh).
- Packers offense is in a weird spot, none of the pass catchers are to expensive, nor are they cheap, but they are in a tough matchup, with a projected negative pass script, and on any given sunday any of them can pop off... I'm avoiding it, but if mass entering tourneys, maybe consider a love stack with a pass catcher or 2 as nobody will be doing it. Jacobs is the man I am interested in most, I am concerned he saw almost a season low 55% of snaps, and I know he has a quad injury pop up, but the extra week off, and a positive script, I can easily see a path to 24+ opps, and can be paired with GBP D. Passing at TE.
The bears for one-offs seem kind of interesting. Starting with Swift, its nice to see even in 2+ possession deficits he is still in the 66%~ range of snaps. I don't like in 2 of 3 games since BYE he only had 0 and 1 target, but the other he had 6, and on the season he's averaging 3.33~, he gives a nice floor, and with a TD I do feel like he can be optimal, and who knows how the offense will be designed now. Moore has gotten to the price where you can't really consider Allen/Odunze (as the gap in price probably should be greater), 6K is cheap for a player of his caliber, and I don't hate the idea --- again nobody will be playing bears players imo. Passing at TE for now.
JAC@DET
Jags have a bad P/RB matchup.
Lions have a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
M. Jones has a bad pressure rate situation (grain of salt), and bad pass potential.
Goff has a good pressure rate situation, and great pass potential. Gibbs/Montgom have a great rush potential.
Jags TTR is T-20th (meh).
Lions TTR is 1st (great).
Pace of play is 9th. O/U Rank is 3rd (good).
- Whenever a QB is around this 5K floor~ price range, you can always make an argument to me to play him in tourneys, and Jones at 4.9K fits that. In his first full game, Engram had a 38% target share, with an ok 6.6 aDOT, I mentioned last week how Henry had spike games with Jones w/ NEP, and I think Engram is still primed to have a breakout --- another example of someone I think nobody will reallly be playing, he is an interesting tourney play. Gab had a 19% target share with a massive 22 aDOT, I'd use him as a dart throw. Passing on Thomas he is to expensive compared to Gabe. I have some interest in Etienne, he had a 68% snap share with Bigsby getting hurt mid game, I think we could have a chance at 75%+, but I also thought he'd be at a discount in the 5K range, and they semi propped him up into 6K, I still think he is a safe play, but not sure if I like it as much anymore.
DET is tricky, they'll be high owned, for good reason as they are TTR 1, and have an insane matchup on paper. But the premo guys are expensive, and there are multiple guys that can breakout. Of course I will have pieces here, not sure how I want to play it though. Montgomery in 5 games since the bye has had 1 game with 20 opps, in the other 4 he didn't get over 14... I think the script favors him but without a TD, 6.5K will dud you, especially since he is susceptibly to 1 target games (4 of them in 9 games). Gibbs is definitely the lead back in neutral to positive pass script games, but nobody is really believe that'll happen this week, he's obviously explosive, but even a 21 point game doesn't 3x' this salary, my gut says to fade the ownership here as well. We've consistently seen why we target pass catchers vs the jags this year. In the 7 games ASB/Jame-O played together they have, a 29.5% target share/7.3 aDOT, and 18% target share/15.6 aDOT --- w/ Laporta and his 11.5% targets, all ships shall rise.. I think both are viable, I lean the cheaper price/hr upside in williams. Wright is interesting at 3.3K, he had 5 targets week 3 when laporta was in and out with his ankle injury.
LAR@NEP
Rams have a great RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Pats have a great P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Stafford has a bad pressure rate situation.
Maye has a bad pressure rate situation, and a meh pass potential. Stevenson has a meh rush potential.
Rams TTR is 5th (good).
Pats TTR is 18th (meh).
Pace of play is 5th. O/U Rank is T-8th.
- Somebody in this thread will be on/mention Kyren
, but the guy is a bellcow plays 90%+~ of snaps, he is guaranteed 20+ opps, and has shown some nice PPR floor this year, in his last 3 he's averaging 5.33 targets/g. Last week was really the first full week the 3 WRs on LAR played together all year and Nacua garnered a 32% target share/9.36 aDOT --- I know it is a tiny sample size, but we can't play Kupp if this is the case and they are priced practically the same (Kupp actually $200 more). I wish Robinson was cheaper but he plays a lot and has HR potential, so I get it as a dart if mass entering, otherwise pass.... Allen needs to be considered as one of the punt/salary saver TE's, he is floor priced at 2.5K, and played 80% of snaps last week, bye bye parkinson.
I am not in love with playing Stevenson, but his priced has gone down a touch, you don't see RBs at 6.1K~ area that have 20+ opp potential, 70%+ snap share, with a ppr floor built in, you can definitely do worse. I know they led last week, but no WR on the pats had over a 45% snap count except Boutte, who was at 97% (96% week prior), this guy is the de facto WR1 for the pats and he is only 3.5K (1.2K cheaper than douglas....), with Maye he has a massive 19.6 aDOT, he is a good play in tourneys imo. While I like other TEs, you have to put some respect on Henry and his 21.5% target share with Maye/7.8 aDOT, which is good for TEs, I'll say it for another Pat, you can certainly do worse.
CLV@NOS
Browns have a great P/RB matchup.
Saints have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Winston has a meh pass potential. Chubb has a good rush potential.
Carr has a bad pressure rate situation.
Browns TTR is 14th.
Saints TTR is T-10th.
Pace of play is 4th. O/U Rank is 5th.
- In Winstons 2 games, he has throw atleast 41 pass attempts, the pace/total in this game are deceptively high. The hard part is nailing who will succeed.... for 10 target projections, they all are arguably cheap, while jeudy/tillman are closer to 100%~, Moore is still 70% plus and all 3 have target shares of 22 to 24% (19 to 21 total targets) so I'd play who will be lower owned if going here, and that is Jeudy.... to knock on moore, Toney is expected to suit up too, probably effects him the most. I can't trust the backfield, in fords first game back, he actually played more than chubb, neither hit 50%.
The WRs here are cheap, what stinks is no WR hit over 55% of snaps last week, they are doing 2 to 3 TE sets, they have FB in with Kamara, I don't know if I want to pray and dart throw here when other WR values are there too, maybe game stacking in multiple entry makes sense, but thats it for me --- no WR even had a 10%+ target share in the last 2 weeks..... Kamara on the other hand hit over 80% of snaps last week, in the last 2 games he's averaging 7.5 targets a game, the guy has an incredible floor/ceiling combo every week on full PPR sites.
MIN@TEN
Vikings have a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Titans have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Darnold has a great pressure rate situation, and a good pass potential. Jones has a meh rush potential.
Levis has a bad pass potential. Pollard has a bad rush potential.
Vikes TTR is T-10th.
Titans TTR is 22nd (bad/last).
Pace of play is 14th (bad/last). O/U Rank is 11th (bad/last). ---- noticing a pattern with TEN?
- At best I'll be one-offing this game, we have the slowest/lowest pace/overunder. Jones is a fine option he has 70%+ snap count potential, and 20+ opp potential, but he is a hair from 7K, and there are backs around him that just grade out much better. He is expensive, and in a perceived tough match, and honestly, Jefferson feels like he has had a quiet season, but in his last 5 games with Addison back, he has a really good 29.5% target share, and 11.3 aDOT, and in 3 of his last 4 games he has 21+ point bombed, in a tournament, I wouldn't be afraid to one-off this where mass-entering, as we know he has slate breaking potential we haven't seen yet. Addison may hit a HR shot with his bigger 14.5 aDOT, but the 14% target share in his 5 games hasn't been something to write home about, and in the last 2 games with Hock back, his aDOT has fallen to 10.4, which gives us more concern. I probably won't have him, but they didn't budge hockenson's price after his 9 target game, and has a good TE aDOT of 8.4 since returning --- I want to be mindful not to go overboard in this game but if you have conviction, I won't blame you.
We can't touch this backfield until we get some more data, Pollard is priced as if spears isn't back, and he saw a decent dip in snaps, but maybe that's because they were down 2+ possessions, not sure yet, so we pass. Levis has had 1 game with Ridley + no Hopkins, and Ridley had the best WR metric we may see all season --- which honestly still echoes his year as a whole --- he had an insane 39% target share and an insane 16.5 aDOT, that's bonkers. 2 of these games were with Rudolph but in his 3 games with no hopkins, the metrics are still 36.5%/13.7. He is always viable imo. Not interested in the rest, Ikhine does play a lot, and is 3.6K, he is a fine punt option but I'll pass fr now.
LVR@MIA
Raiders have a good P/RB matchup.
Dolphins have a great P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Minshew? has a meh pass potential. Mattison? has a bad rush potential.
Tua has a good pressure rate situation. Achane has a meh rush potential.
Raiders TTR is 19th (meh).
Dolphins TTR is 3rd (good).
Pace of play is T-7th. O/U Rank is T-6th.
- They're cheap! but we can't trust this backfield... nobody hit 50% last week, White, who had 6 carries and played just 11% of snaps had the TD, and Abdullah led in snaps despite Mattison being the starter. Meyers 2 week return he has had a 30.5% target share/8 aDOT, that is worthy of consideration if it continues, he won't be priced in the 5K range for long, plus he played nearly every snap last week. Tucker has HR hit potential but we want him to be more of a punt in the 3K option, so pass at 4K range. Bowers has double digit target potential, but we are paying a premium for a TE that's aDOT has been in the 5's with meyers back, I don't love it when you see the options around him (kelce is just $500 more...).
I want to believe in Hill but he still is priced so high, and even in the 3 games since Tua's return, he only has a 20% target share (with 11 aDOT), I know he has it in him, and I will use a game stack with a lineup because of the potential, but I think underweight is the only real option. Waddle is so much cheaper and htey've almost been thae same (about 1 less target a game), Him in the 5K area seems more reasonable. Achane is who we want, he hit 70% of snaps, we see him at the goalline and in his last 3 starts with Tua, he has had no less than 5 targets (averaging 7/g), yes please.
BAL@PIT
Ravens have a mad P/RB matchup.
Steelers have a meh P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Lamar has a good pass potential. Henry has a good rush potential.
R. Wilson has a bad pressure rate situation, but a good pass potential. Najee? has a bad rush potential.
Ravens TTR is 4th (good).
Steelers TTR is 12th.
Pace of play is 12th (meh). O/U Rank is 2nd (good).
- Rinse and repeat, but Henry has now had 6 straight games of 1 target or less, and it almost feels like he needs 2 TDs now to pay off this salary --- I know he is a slate breaker but I'll let others chase in this matchup. We just can't trust Diontae until we see it. I know he's been a non factor, but in his 2 games, Bateman/Flowers each have a 24% target share, and Bateman has the better aDOT at 9.2 vs 7.8, he is much cheaper and would be where I go if attacking this (I probably won't but the O/U is good enough to do so). With Likely back, we are back to throwing a dart at TE of which will succeed, I'll pass. Maybe a naked Lamar is the way.
Warren is expect to play, neither back last week hit 50% of snaps, and yes Najee had 21 opps, but 0 of them were targets... now in tourneys if you wanted to convince me that PIT will be playing from behind again, and Warren will see 16~ opps/2+ targets, I can see a sub 1% ownership play on him at 5K price range, but I'll pass for now. Don't be conned into Mike Williams until we see his routes/snaps go up (he ran like 8? routes, and had an 11% snap share last week). Pickens not to long ago (about 3 weeks ago) was priced in the 5K range, we finally see him at 7K, but he still grades out well... he is in an elite matchup, has a 26.5% targetr share/15.7 aDOT with Wilson too. IF Jefferson is a no go, I'll have interest in Austin in the 3K range. Pass at TE, but Washington over Freiermuth when considering prices.
IND@NYJ
Colts have a great RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Jets have a meh P/RB matchup.
Richardson has a great pressure rate situation, but a bad pass potential.
Rodgers has a good pass potential. Hall has a bad rush potential.
Colts TTR is 17th.
Jets TTR is 7th (good).
Pace of play is 3rd (good). O/U Rank is T-8th.
- Taylor is interesting because the players around him (CMC/Kamara/Kyren/Bjan/Gibbs/Achane/Etc) will arguably be higher owned, and his matchup is as good as any. He's coming off a 25 opp game/4 targets, and has 80%+ snap count potential. Now if you think they finally let Richardson run again, maybe there's an argument for less TD equity but I'd still have shares of him. Richardson is a tourney consideration play, it obviosuly can be bad, but we've seen his ceilings, and at low 5K, it's the cheapest he has ever been. In the 3 games with the healthy WRs and Richardson, Pittman has had a 22.5% target share/16.4 aDOT --- he is cheaper than Downs, but has the best metrics. I'd like to say pierce is the HR hitter, and he can do it, but he used to be 3k, then 4k, at 5K, we can't trust him as there are better value options below him, but I do want to note he had a 20 aDOT with richardson, and that was with a 15% target share, so its not like its 1 bomb a game. Pass at TE.
While Hall hasn't shown us a big game in awhile, he's still hitting 80%+ of snaps, and his YPC have been much better in his last 3 (over 5), he has a PPR floor (not less than 3 once this year), and again, also feels like a guy being slept on... in tourneys I think he is very viable. Adams/Wilson are practically the same player in terms of metrics and pricing, adams a bit more target share, but a bit lower aDOT --- it failed last week, but it means people are giving up, I think I'd still do 1 Rodgers + Wilson/Adams stack, or Rodgers + Hall + Wilson or Adams stack --- the underlying metrics are there for this to pop-off despite it not. Pass at TE.
Sunday 4PMs/Main Slate (Cont.)
SEA@SFO
Seahawks have a great RB matchup, bad P matchup.
49ers have a good P/RB matchup.
Geno has a meh pressure rate situation. Walker has a good rush potential.
Purdy has a good pressure rate situation, and a great pass potential. CMC has a great rush potential.
Seahawks TTR is 15th.
49ers TTR is 2nd (great).
Pace of play is T-7th. O/U Rank is 1st (good).
- Walker saw a season high 76% of snaps, and had 28opps (3 targets) to go with it... the matchup is technically better too, and if he even sees 25+ opps, he needs to be considered. Until proven otherwise, JSN is to expensive when all WRs are in play he has had the worst aDOT AND Target share. I don't really like clicking Locketts name either, but 19.5%/10.6 aren't terrible for 5K --- and while Metcalfs aDOT is good at 14.3, his target share seems low at 21% when looking at people priced around him, but I will note SEA's pass volume has been high all year, so a 21% target share means more than someone elses 25%+ and we are talking about the best O/U game of the slate, with a projected positive pass script, so I get the need to play a pass catcher.
CMC immediately back to his usual self, playing nearly 90% of snaps, and had 20 opps (7! targets), he had 0 setbacks, fire him up if you want. J. Jennings is GROSSly mispriced. He has had 2 games this year where 1 of deebo or aiyuk didn't play and he finished with a 36.5% target share/10 aDOT, he also led the WRs in those games in snap count, and he is in the 5K range... this is not even considering that Kittle is unlikely to play. IMO it is perfect game stack/onslaught stack as the production should be concentrated.
ATL@DEN
Falcons have a bad P/RB matchup.
Broncos have a good P/RB matchup.
Cousins has a meh pressure rate situation, and meh pass potential. Bi. Robinson has a good rush potential.
Nix has a great pressure rate situation.
Falcons TTR is 16th.
Broncos TTR is 8th (good).
Pace of play is 2nd (good). O/U Rank is T-6th.
- Bijan has an insnale floor, seeing no less than 4 targets in every game but 2 (and still had 2/3 targets in them) he is script proof unless playing with a big lead which I don't see happening. The pass catchers here are all good, and should see enough volume to warrant consideration, the matchup is tough though, and I'd probably dart throw Rayray if I go here, as he will be the least popular but is also the cheapest and really has potential to have a game where he leads in FPs.
I will absolutely have a Nix to Sutton stack. Sutton quietly has really good season long stats that includes his 0 catch game --- 25% target/13.2 aDOT and he's still priced in the 5K range in a really good matchup. The other 4 WRs reanged from 22 to 66% of snaps last week (even tighter the week prior), if mass mass entering, I'd take a shot on Franklin for a HR hit. Can we trust Payton? Estime saw a team high 45% of snaps at RB last week, my problem is he is only 4.5K so it's an easy click, however he will be severely high owned, do we think he gets over 50%? Is 50% even worth it for a back who had 0 targets, I actually think fading is very smart for now/this week especially.
KCC@BUF
Chiefs have a great RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Bills have a bad P/RB matchup.
Mahomes has a good pass potential.
Chiefs TTR is 13th.
Bills TTR is 6th (good).
Pace of play is 11th (meh). O/U Rank is 4th.
- Hunt had 10! targets last week --- if this is a product of playing from behind/opposing secondary being good, can't that happen this week too? There are to many backs I like but I can see myself regretting not playing him enough. No WR is really worth it minus hopkins but even in his 2 full~ starts he only has a 17% target share/7.4 aDOT, but it does come with 3 RZ targets, and I still believe his numbers should only rise so he may be cheap at 5.7K. Kelce is insane, maybe thats a product of Hopkins coming to town, but the last 2 weeks he has a massive 34% target share, and 5 RZ targets... 2.5/g!, Kelce used to be priced 7K+ and maybe that time will be comign soon, but at 6.3K he is arguably GROSSly mispriced too.
You can almost always convince me to take anyone in a tournament as cook plays for a good team, and has a 20+ opp potential, but he seems to be capped at 55% of snaps, and is in an extremely tough matchup, and I like so many backs this week, pass again. Last year when Knox was out, Kincaid shined, and maybe we see that out of knox, but even if he is mediorce, he is way to cheap not to consider. I don't really like Shakir at his price, and we don't really have numbers for cooper yet, but with no coleman/kincaid, if he suits up I have interest, if he doesnt, Samuel is an interesting PPR play as he is close to floor price and had a 23% target share last week (and the best aDOT of all the main players minus Hollins)
r throwing the ball!! 
---- I will note though I do remember seeing Barmore (DT) for Pats may be returning, could help settle some of that issue
