DFS/props week 1
- Thread starter 2daBank
- Start date
2daBank
Voice of Reason
As ya can see im high on Allen Robinson, this dude a beast and has just never had a half way decent qb! Now he gets to slide into obj spot opposite of Kupp wjo draws a ton of attention! Gotta think rams look to welcome him in style and just look what obj did in this offense, great value for him to score a td imo.
Im hoping Henderson doesn’t steal lot of touches from Akers but when he was healthy come playoff time he was Mcvey guy! Even when he tried to fumble the playoff game at tampa away Mcvey kept going back to him! New season and now he healthy, I suspect we don’t see many numbers this low on him going forward!
Im hoping Henderson doesn’t steal lot of touches from Akers but when he was healthy come playoff time he was Mcvey guy! Even when he tried to fumble the playoff game at tampa away Mcvey kept going back to him! New season and now he healthy, I suspect we don’t see many numbers this low on him going forward!
2daBank
Voice of Reason
That all I got, wasn’t sure on bills players, Is singletary still their main rb or is cook gonna get that job? Maybe a timeshare? Far as receivers I dunno if Ramsey gonna shadow diggs or not? Just not as confident in bills as I feel like I know the pecking order for the rams.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
No clue honestly. I dunno how many he threw last year, or how many ints bills got, just not something I’ve capped. Seems like he had that stretch where he was throwing a ton but didn’t he get it worked out by playoff? Your guess is better than mine.
survive&advance
Nothing but net MFer!
Davis anytime td +160, Henderson over 6.5 Carries, McKenzie over 22.5, singletary under 15.5 Rec yds are a few I’m on at the top of my head. Got a bunch of others lol
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Sweet, was hoping someone would post some bills stuff, I wasn’t confident in anything on their side.,
I could do without Henderson getting touches tho! Unless it garbage time after Akers hit his numbers! Lol
survive&advance
Nothing but net MFer!
Yea I kinda think they’re gonna spread out carries but who knows
2daBank
Voice of Reason
They might this early. I know Mcvey loves Akers but maybe he will want to take it easy on him early in the year. I just hope it not some dumb shit like pen st did and have a different back every series so none ever got in a grove! Long as Akers gets 12-18 touches I think he go over.
Vapster
Awesome1#1
You're Not The Only One Who Gives Out Easy Winners Brother!!!
ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
Not around Sunday, so some quick thoughts/comments.
I usually generalize DVOA matchups to Great, Good, Meh, Bad (1-8/9-16/17-24/25-32). And
ALY (adjusted line yards)/ASR (adjusted sack rates) matchups as great (top 5), good (6-10), try to avoid (23-27), and bad (28-32).
These numbers will get more accurate/better post week 4~, as there will be more in season metrics.
So the information below is based solely off of 2021, so someone with more knowledge, chime in if someone who qualifies based of last year has had a lot of departures or additions or coaching changes that would give reason for team x not being as bad, or as good as they once were.
This is strictly a main slate discussion (so just 1/4pm's) when it comes to Team total rank (TTR), and O/U Rank (O/UR), but it is full slate for ASR/ALY/DVOA numbers. If theres a ? at the end, its either because of possible injury, or uncertainty in timeshare, or I'm forgetting if its actually him (maybe).
Can't get much into individual plays as I'm short on time, but quick synopsis.
BAL/NYJ
Baltimore is 5th(out of 26) in TTR, and T7th(out of 13) for O/UR
Jets is 23rd in TTR.
Ravens have a great DVOA matchup for P/RB
Jets have a great DVOA matchup for P, bad for RB.
Dobbins has a meh ALY matchup.
Flacco has a meh ASR matchup, and Hall? has a bad ALY matchup (actually the worst)
- Naked Lamar, Lamar + Cheap WR, or Lamar + Andrews, all seem viable. Add any of those 3 options with 1 NYJ WR is smart in big MME tourneys, you guess which one. That's all I'd have. Balty D?
NOS/ATL
Saints are 10th in TTR, and 11th for O/UR
Falcons are 24th in TTR.
Saints have a great DVOA matchup for P/RB.
Falcons have a bad DVOA matchup for P/RB.
Winston has a great ASR matchup.
Mariota has a meh ASR matchup, and Patterson? has a bad ALY matchup.
-Thats a bad team total, and if I remember correctly, saints play at one of the slower paces in the league (will that change with winston?, idk), but I think I'd strictly one-off a saints player at best. Like Kamara or a WR. I'll pass on the falcons for now. Saints D + Kamara?
SFO/CHI
49ers are 12th in TTR, and 13th for O/UR (last).
Bears are 26th (last) in TTR.
SFO has a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
CHI has a meh P matchup, and a bad RB matchup.
Lance has a bad ASR matchup. Mitchell has a good ALY matchup.
Fields has a bad ASR matchup (worst), Montgomery has a bad ALY matchup.
-Mitchell and that's it (you can debate me on deebo maybe). worst O/U, pass on the rest. SFO D?
PIT/CIN
Steelers are 25th in TTR, T-7th in O/UR.
Bengals are 6th in TTR.
PIT has a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
CIN has a great RB matchup, and a bad P matchup.
Trubisky? has a good ASR matchup. Najee has a meh ALY matchup.
Burrow has a bad ASR matchup.
-I'll let others chase the big play wrs, I think mixon can be a good low owned pivot option thats in a good spot with a healthy TT.
PHI/DET
Eagles are 3rd in TTR, 3rd in O/UR
Lions are 16th in TTR
PHI has a great P/RB matchup.
DET has a great P matchup, and a good RB matchup.
Hurts has a good ASR matchup. Sanders? has a great ALY matchup.
Goff has a great ASR matchup.
-This is definitely a stackable game. I don't know if we can trust the eagles backfield yet in regards to who will get the touches/volume, plus Hurts is a stealer of TDs too. But I'm in on naked hurts, hurts + wr(s), hurts +wr/te, with detriot bring backs. I think Goff + Swift + WR (Amon-Ra, or Chark) with a PHI bringback can be a MME lineup too.
NEP/MIA
Pats are 17th in TTR, T-4th in O/UR.
Dolphins are 7th in TTR.
NEP has a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
MIA has a meh RB matchup, and a bad P matchup.
Edmonds has a meh ALY matchup.
- Weird game here, its T-4th in o/u so one-offs here aren't a bad play, but Pats stingy on D, and I think I'd rather take a show on one of Stevenson or Harris and call it a day. But I won't fault you for wanting to take MIA players.
JAC/WAS
Jags are 20th in TTR, T-7th O/UR
Redskins are 14th in TTR
JAC has a great P matchup, bad RB matchup.
WAS has a great P matchup, and good RB matchup.
Gibson has a good ALY matchup.
- We have great P matchups here, but I think I'd avoid going overboard or trying to get cute. I'd rather one-off the wrs, maybe gibson, if you need to fill the last spot of a lineup. As I don't think one of these QBs will be in the winning lineup, but they have a path to succeed here, which means someone pass catcher will have a high scoring game.
CLV/CAR
Browns are 18th in TTR, 12th in O/UR
Panthers are 19th In TTR.
CLV has a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
CAR has a good RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Brissett has a bad ASR matchup, Chubb has a good ALY matchup.
Baker has a bad ASR matchup, CMC has a meh ALY matchup.
-lower end TT's, 2nd lowest O/U, I'm not chasing the CMC price, I'm waiting for Njoku's snap % first. If you want chubb, go ahead.
IND/HOU
Colts are 4th in TTR, 6th in O/UR
Texans are 21st in TTR.
IND has a good P/RB matchup.
HOU has a good RB matchup, and bad P matchup.
Taylor has a great ALY matchup.
Pierce has a bad ALY matchup.
- I think you can confidently play Taylor here. I'm going to go out and say this now, but 1 week, Davis Mills + Collins or Cooks will be a milly maker winner, but I don't think this is the week. I'm not against Taylor + a HOU wr, or one-offing a colts WR.
NYG/TEN
Giants are 22nd in TTR, T-7th in O/UR.
Titans are 8th in TTR.
NYG have a meh P/RB matchup.
TEN has a great RB matchup, and meh P matchup.
Barkley has a bad ALY matchup.
Henry has a great ALY matchup. Tanny has a meh ASR matchup.
- I think you can fire up Henry with confidence, I don't expect his timeshare to take a hit just yet, but we'll see. Faves, good TT, great ALY matchup.
GBP/MIN
Packers are 13th in TTR, T-4th in O/UR.
Vikes are 15th In TTR.
GPB has a great RB matchup, meh P matchup.
MIN has a great RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Jones? has a great ALY matchup.
Cousins has a great ASR matchup.
- Not sure how I want to target this, but a close back and forth game, and a good O/U. If lazard is out, we can get some cheapie WRs with much higher than price usage. Jones or Dillon? Jefferson+Cousins with a cheapie bring back. Idk. I think if you think GPB plays with a lead, i'd go dillon, if behind, jones and/or a cheapie WR.
KCC/ARI
Chiefs are 1st in TTR, 1st in O/UR.
Cards are 11th in TTR.
KCC has a bad P/RB matchup.
ARI has a good P/RB matchup.
Mahomes has a good ASR matchup.
Kyler has a good ASR matchup.
- Hard to not take this game, has its set up to be a shootout. Full avoid or All-in will make or break you one way or another. Having said that, I think I'd rather Kyler + RB and/or WR with a Chiefs bringback like Kelce (or guess on a WR).
LVR/LAC
Raiders are 9th in TTR, 2nd in O/UR.
Chargers are 2nd in TTR, 2nd in O/UR.
LVR has a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
LAC has a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Jacobs has a good ALY matchup.
Herbert has a great ASR matchup.
- I wonder if this will be the lost game of the 2 big 4pmers. I'd rather stack/be all in here than the KCC/ARI game, as the defenses are worse, and we know where the concentration is in this offense (Herbert + Allen and/or Williams, maybe Ekeler, with any bringback, Adams/Renfrow/Waller, Jacobs.)
I usually generalize DVOA matchups to Great, Good, Meh, Bad (1-8/9-16/17-24/25-32). And
ALY (adjusted line yards)/ASR (adjusted sack rates) matchups as great (top 5), good (6-10), try to avoid (23-27), and bad (28-32).
These numbers will get more accurate/better post week 4~, as there will be more in season metrics.
So the information below is based solely off of 2021, so someone with more knowledge, chime in if someone who qualifies based of last year has had a lot of departures or additions or coaching changes that would give reason for team x not being as bad, or as good as they once were.
This is strictly a main slate discussion (so just 1/4pm's) when it comes to Team total rank (TTR), and O/U Rank (O/UR), but it is full slate for ASR/ALY/DVOA numbers. If theres a ? at the end, its either because of possible injury, or uncertainty in timeshare, or I'm forgetting if its actually him (maybe).
Can't get much into individual plays as I'm short on time, but quick synopsis.
BAL/NYJ
Baltimore is 5th(out of 26) in TTR, and T7th(out of 13) for O/UR
Jets is 23rd in TTR.
Ravens have a great DVOA matchup for P/RB
Jets have a great DVOA matchup for P, bad for RB.
Dobbins has a meh ALY matchup.
Flacco has a meh ASR matchup, and Hall? has a bad ALY matchup (actually the worst)
- Naked Lamar, Lamar + Cheap WR, or Lamar + Andrews, all seem viable. Add any of those 3 options with 1 NYJ WR is smart in big MME tourneys, you guess which one. That's all I'd have. Balty D?
NOS/ATL
Saints are 10th in TTR, and 11th for O/UR
Falcons are 24th in TTR.
Saints have a great DVOA matchup for P/RB.
Falcons have a bad DVOA matchup for P/RB.
Winston has a great ASR matchup.
Mariota has a meh ASR matchup, and Patterson? has a bad ALY matchup.
-Thats a bad team total, and if I remember correctly, saints play at one of the slower paces in the league (will that change with winston?, idk), but I think I'd strictly one-off a saints player at best. Like Kamara or a WR. I'll pass on the falcons for now. Saints D + Kamara?
SFO/CHI
49ers are 12th in TTR, and 13th for O/UR (last).
Bears are 26th (last) in TTR.
SFO has a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
CHI has a meh P matchup, and a bad RB matchup.
Lance has a bad ASR matchup. Mitchell has a good ALY matchup.
Fields has a bad ASR matchup (worst), Montgomery has a bad ALY matchup.
-Mitchell and that's it (you can debate me on deebo maybe). worst O/U, pass on the rest. SFO D?
PIT/CIN
Steelers are 25th in TTR, T-7th in O/UR.
Bengals are 6th in TTR.
PIT has a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
CIN has a great RB matchup, and a bad P matchup.
Trubisky? has a good ASR matchup. Najee has a meh ALY matchup.
Burrow has a bad ASR matchup.
-I'll let others chase the big play wrs, I think mixon can be a good low owned pivot option thats in a good spot with a healthy TT.
PHI/DET
Eagles are 3rd in TTR, 3rd in O/UR
Lions are 16th in TTR
PHI has a great P/RB matchup.
DET has a great P matchup, and a good RB matchup.
Hurts has a good ASR matchup. Sanders? has a great ALY matchup.
Goff has a great ASR matchup.
-This is definitely a stackable game. I don't know if we can trust the eagles backfield yet in regards to who will get the touches/volume, plus Hurts is a stealer of TDs too. But I'm in on naked hurts, hurts + wr(s), hurts +wr/te, with detriot bring backs. I think Goff + Swift + WR (Amon-Ra, or Chark) with a PHI bringback can be a MME lineup too.
NEP/MIA
Pats are 17th in TTR, T-4th in O/UR.
Dolphins are 7th in TTR.
NEP has a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
MIA has a meh RB matchup, and a bad P matchup.
Edmonds has a meh ALY matchup.
- Weird game here, its T-4th in o/u so one-offs here aren't a bad play, but Pats stingy on D, and I think I'd rather take a show on one of Stevenson or Harris and call it a day. But I won't fault you for wanting to take MIA players.
JAC/WAS
Jags are 20th in TTR, T-7th O/UR
Redskins are 14th in TTR
JAC has a great P matchup, bad RB matchup.
WAS has a great P matchup, and good RB matchup.
Gibson has a good ALY matchup.
- We have great P matchups here, but I think I'd avoid going overboard or trying to get cute. I'd rather one-off the wrs, maybe gibson, if you need to fill the last spot of a lineup. As I don't think one of these QBs will be in the winning lineup, but they have a path to succeed here, which means someone pass catcher will have a high scoring game.
CLV/CAR
Browns are 18th in TTR, 12th in O/UR
Panthers are 19th In TTR.
CLV has a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
CAR has a good RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Brissett has a bad ASR matchup, Chubb has a good ALY matchup.
Baker has a bad ASR matchup, CMC has a meh ALY matchup.
-lower end TT's, 2nd lowest O/U, I'm not chasing the CMC price, I'm waiting for Njoku's snap % first. If you want chubb, go ahead.
IND/HOU
Colts are 4th in TTR, 6th in O/UR
Texans are 21st in TTR.
IND has a good P/RB matchup.
HOU has a good RB matchup, and bad P matchup.
Taylor has a great ALY matchup.
Pierce has a bad ALY matchup.
- I think you can confidently play Taylor here. I'm going to go out and say this now, but 1 week, Davis Mills + Collins or Cooks will be a milly maker winner, but I don't think this is the week. I'm not against Taylor + a HOU wr, or one-offing a colts WR.
NYG/TEN
Giants are 22nd in TTR, T-7th in O/UR.
Titans are 8th in TTR.
NYG have a meh P/RB matchup.
TEN has a great RB matchup, and meh P matchup.
Barkley has a bad ALY matchup.
Henry has a great ALY matchup. Tanny has a meh ASR matchup.
- I think you can fire up Henry with confidence, I don't expect his timeshare to take a hit just yet, but we'll see. Faves, good TT, great ALY matchup.
GBP/MIN
Packers are 13th in TTR, T-4th in O/UR.
Vikes are 15th In TTR.
GPB has a great RB matchup, meh P matchup.
MIN has a great RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Jones? has a great ALY matchup.
Cousins has a great ASR matchup.
- Not sure how I want to target this, but a close back and forth game, and a good O/U. If lazard is out, we can get some cheapie WRs with much higher than price usage. Jones or Dillon? Jefferson+Cousins with a cheapie bring back. Idk. I think if you think GPB plays with a lead, i'd go dillon, if behind, jones and/or a cheapie WR.
KCC/ARI
Chiefs are 1st in TTR, 1st in O/UR.
Cards are 11th in TTR.
KCC has a bad P/RB matchup.
ARI has a good P/RB matchup.
Mahomes has a good ASR matchup.
Kyler has a good ASR matchup.
- Hard to not take this game, has its set up to be a shootout. Full avoid or All-in will make or break you one way or another. Having said that, I think I'd rather Kyler + RB and/or WR with a Chiefs bringback like Kelce (or guess on a WR).
LVR/LAC
Raiders are 9th in TTR, 2nd in O/UR.
Chargers are 2nd in TTR, 2nd in O/UR.
LVR has a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
LAC has a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Jacobs has a good ALY matchup.
Herbert has a great ASR matchup.
- I wonder if this will be the lost game of the 2 big 4pmers. I'd rather stack/be all in here than the KCC/ARI game, as the defenses are worse, and we know where the concentration is in this offense (Herbert + Allen and/or Williams, maybe Ekeler, with any bringback, Adams/Renfrow/Waller, Jacobs.)
ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
I wont have pace of play until after week 4 (I can do last years, maybe I will next week)
All good.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
So the thing that has killed me the most w early ncaa has been rush yards (and the fact you can’t bet just to score td you gotta play rush or rec td and my rbs caught as many tds they ran in!). A lot the problem is the team hit the rush total, 1 guy did in many cases, but it been the wrong fuvking guy!! That shouldn’t happen as much w nfl but low and behold rams basically didn’t even play Akers! Just 2 plays or so to make sure the bet lost instead of pushed!!! Lesson learned, even tho im much more confident in which backs get the run today im not as confident in how much some these teams gonna run/pass., Td props have been much better so I’m mostly sticking there, except I’ve come up with this theory im playing several backs receiving yards and several qb rushing yards! Lol.
Lexington 125
I cap it all, and I cap it well.
Taylor is gonna shred the Texans. Again. Parlaying anytime td-215 with a couple wagers
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Ah. I feel pretty confident the Steez win even if they have to outscore the cats.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Really? I’m not betting bungals or anything, I kinda leaned Steelers w the points but I don’t think there much chance Harris goes off unless as a wr. Cincy d front is very solid, I think them vs Steelers oline the biggest mismatch in game. If I had to id prob play Steelers team total under 18.5 I think I saw?
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Great stuff as always bro.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Love the swift play.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Almost forgot. Played a incredibly rare under!!
Cooper under 49.5 rec
Love panthers corners and he been known to vanish on the road when things not going his way early! Browns gonna try to run, he might end up on sideline pouting at some point! Wouldn’t be the 1st time! What better way to introduce him to his new team!!
Cooper under 49.5 rec
Love panthers corners and he been known to vanish on the road when things not going his way early! Browns gonna try to run, he might end up on sideline pouting at some point! Wouldn’t be the 1st time! What better way to introduce him to his new team!!
ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
Looks like 1-2 unless we get a quick NYJ td or turnover, the other was the mitchell injury screw job.
4PMs
D. Henry Rush&Rec Yds o111.5 -115
C. Helaire Rush&Rec Yds O62.5 -110
