Sunday 1PMs/Main Slate
NYG@WAS
Giants have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
Commanders have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Russ has a meh pressure rate situation, and a meh pass potential.
Daniels has a meh pressure rate situation, but a great pass potential. Ekeler? has a great rush potential.
Giants TTR is 21st (meh).
Commanders TTR is 2nd (good).
Pace of play is T-6th. O/U Rank is 6th.
- should start by saying, you can convince me of anything for a DFS tourney and I will understand it. Having said that, Russ being 5K, which is practically the stone minimum for a starting QB screams valuable to me, especially in a matchup where they are 6 point dogs, and Washington plays at a quick pace. I do think Tracy seems cheap, and imo should get the bulk of the work week 1, but I don't want to waste the RB spot in what could be a timeshare, and where they are an underdog. Russ isn't afraid of the long ball, and if you are debating him i'd pair him with slayton, who led last year in aDOT, maybe Hyatt if you want. Nabers is the true giant you can play across multiple lineups/game stacks.
Everyone and their mothers may be on Croskey Merrit and the floor price of 4K, I am not chasing it, imo Ekeler is still the lead back, and obviously has the 3rd down work, and it is very possible Rodriquez is the goalline back (and may very well outproduce croskey with a TD+, i'd rather zig to rodriguez if going here while others zag to croskey). I would have liked brown without gallup in but he is still rehabing that knee and we wont know his usage, same with the fill ins of lane/mccaffrey, imo go naked daniels, or stack him with mclaurin, don't really want deebo. Probably won't play him but if Ertz has his role of last year, he may be the cheapest of the year at 4.1K.
CIN@CLV
Bengals have a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Browns have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
Burrow has a bad pressure rate situation, but a great pass potential. Brown has a bad rush potential.
Flacco has a bad pass potential.
Bengals TTR is 1st (great)
Browns TTR is 16th.
Pace of play is 3rd (good). O/U Rank is T-1st (good).
- When it comes to cincy this week it is about do I want to fade or ride with the ownership, they have slate breaking upside, so if mass entering, include them. I personally will be underweight and will be holding my breath when checking box scores/red zone updates. Having send that, fire up the big 3 as you please (chase/higgins/brown).
I am probably avoiding this timeshare this week, ford is expected to handle the bulk, but I don't trust either of them for a ton of production (atleast not yet). Now if you look up the WR3 in cleveland, you're not even going to know who he is.... this makes me like one of either Jeudy or Tillman, a lot, especially tillman at 4.4K, his 4 game stretch at the end of last year before injury he averaged 10 targets a game, never seeing less than 8, no WR should be this cheap in that situation.
PIT@NYJ
Steelers have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Jets have a good RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Fields has a bad pressure rate situation, and a meh pass potential.
Steelers TTR is 17th.
Jets TTR is 23rd (meh).
Pace of play is 8th. O/U Rank is 12th (last).
- apparently this game won't be a total washout anymore, but we are still in an environment with the lowest O/U of the slate, and by more than a FG difference from 2nd to last.... I don't want to play this backfield, but I think there is 0 reason to take Kaleb, as he is more expensive and Warren should be the lead back, only way I'd have it. If you think any of these WRs (including Metcalf) sees 8+ targets, then I have no problem as a one-off if you feel that way, I am most likely passing, and we probably see a ton of 2 TE sets with Joonu/Frier.
I think you can always play a naked fields and live with the repercussions, even pairing with any of the WR2s gives you a very cheap stack. I think hall can pay of his price, but if this is a true timeshare, this may be the most expensive he gets, and I want a bargain, not this.
ARI@NOS
Cardinals have a great RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Saints have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
Kyler has a great pressure rate situation, and a good pass potential. Conner has a great rush potential.
Kamara has a good rush potential.
Cards TTR is T-4th (good).
Saints TTR is 22nd (meh).
Pace of play is 4th. O/U Rank is T-7th.
- Every ARI player is cheap in general, and they are in a juicy matchup, your decision to ride or fade ownership.
Similar to ARI statement above, Kamara looks cheap, especially on PPR formats --- personally think Olave may get 12+ targets and will have him sprinkled throughout lineups.
MIA@IND
Dolphins have a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Colts have a meh P/RB matchup.
Achane has a bad rush potential.
Jones has a good pressure rate situation, but a meh pass potential. Taylor has a meh rush potential.
Dolphins TTR is T-11th.
Colts TTR is 8th (good).
Pace of play is T-6th. O/U Rank is T-1st (good).
- I don't want people forgetting how great this offense was when Tua/hill/waddle/achane were all healthy ---- I will have a couple of team/game stacks because they had slate breaking upside, oh and no joonu this year.
Do we ride the Warren hype train, or take a wait and see approach? I think he is a fine bring back but the hype is already priced in. Not saying it is right or wrong, but when he is getting 100%~ of snaps in preseason with first team, may want to get on it ahead of time. I still prefer pittman over downs until proven otherwise, he always was priced similarly and always had better underlying metrics but lets see if Jones changing things this year. There is nobody behind Taylor, and he may see 90%+ of snaps.
TBB@ATL
Bucs have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Falcons have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Baker has a great pressure rate situation, and a great pass potential. Bucky has a good rush potential.
Penix has a good pressure rate situation.
Bucs TTR is T-4th (good).
Falcons TTR is T-13th.
Pace of play is 10th (meh). O/U Rank is T-1st (good).
- these 2 teams were some of the worst against the pass this year, and again, it is all about deciding if you want to be overweight or underweight the field. I think Egbuka, although screaming value, I will be underweight, and hope that Evans is the right pivot for tourneys. I am all about London though. The backs are expensive, I still have to believe R. White has a decent role, as bucky had over a 57% snap count in games they both played in just once (although it was week 18 last year), still, I am fading it for week 1 until proven otherwise.
LVR@NEP
Raiders have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Patriots have a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Geno has a great pressure rate situation. Jeanty has a meh rush potential.
Maye has a meh pressure rate situation. Henderson? has a meh rush potential.
Raiders TTR is T-19th.
Pats TTR is T-9th (good).
Pace of play is 5th. O/U Rank is T-7th.
- This is probably the most weather factor game of the slate, making me lean away from the QBs, but I know footing hinders the D more than the O, so if mass entering, maybe take a shot with Maye + a pass catcher. Henderson is cheap, but I'd rather wait to see what this backfield looks like before cementing him --- I will note if he is more of the bellcow, he will not be 5.5K for long, so I understand going here if you want. Jeanty i'm 5050 on.
CAR@JAC
Panthers have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Jags have a great P/RB matchup.
Young has a good pressure rate situation, and a great pass potential. Hubbard has a good rush potential.
Lawrence has a good pressure rate situation, and a good pass potential. Etienne? has a great rush potential.
Panthers TTR is 15th.
Jags TTR is T-4th (good).
Pace of play is 1st (good). O/U Rank is 5th (good).
- like ATL/TBB somehow we got almost the 4 worst teams against the pass playing each other. I love how young ended the season, and will have me some McMillan, I was a Da. Moore dart thrower at the end of last year, but he looks to be the WR4, I think in tourneys if you pivot to Legette it could pay off some too. People shouldn't forget that Hubbard had a handful of games of 30+ opps, 3 of his last 6 games he hit or went over that number, he is only 6K, and maybe people overlook him for the passing options.
My year longs want Etienne to be the guy, he is cheap this week, but I want to see the utilization, last year he had 1 game over 53% of snaps after their bye (7 games). Bigsby had barely any PPR value last year, and unless etienne is hurt, or he becomes the de facto, I won't have him. Give me BTJ/Hunter/Strange, even in tourneys where mass entering, I can see a reason for Brown.
Sunday 4PMs/Main Slate (cont.)
TEN@DEN
Titans have a bad P/RB matchup.
Broncos have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Ward has a bad pressure rate situation, and a bad pass potential. Pollard has a bad rush potential.
Nix has a great pressure rate situation, and a good pass potential.
Titans TTR is 24th (meh/last)
Broncos TTR is 3rd (good).
Pace of play is T-13th (meh). O/U Rank is 11th (meh).
- If Cam Ward is that dude, go ahead and get on him now, as it will be a great leverage play off the popular DEN D this week, but I'm not doing it myself. Pollard should see 20+ opps with his eyes closed this week, and can be considered. I do think the pass catchers are cheap as well, I'll be underweight, but Ridley, even Lockett, shouldn't be 5K/4K respectively.
I know last year Sutton shined, but really this offense was very balanced, and they brought in Engram, I really don't know who the scorer will be. We don't know the timeshare split between the backfield. They have a high team implied total, so I am inclined to mainly play a naked Nix actually.
SFO@SEA
49ers have a meh P/RB matchup.
Seahawks have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
Darnold has a meh pressure rate situation. Walker has a good rush potential.
49ers TTR is T-11th.
Seahawks TTR is 18th.
Pace of play is 12th (meh). O/U Rank is T-7th.
- If CMC is playing, you can play him. You will only be upset with an ingame injury, otherwise he has slate breaking upside. Simialr to TEN, but on a better offense, no top WR should be at 5K or less. Jennings/Pearsall are both 4.9/4.5K respectively and can be played in game stacks or one-offs (i will be underweight though). I think a lot of people will pay up to bowers (which I think is a mistake) or mcbride, but I love Kittle this week, no more deebo, no more aiyuk, and the healthiest he may be all year haha. I will be overweight.
We don't know what this offense will look like with the walker/charb split time, but they are cheap, and if you have conviction, go for it. The TEs were never using in years past, but they are almost punt priced, and they may be a little bit more of a focus than their like 2 total targets a game last year (made this up, but it felt that way). You can obviously go with Kupp if you'd like, he is cheap too, but so is JSN, and I will be overweight him.
DET@GBP
Lions have a good RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Packers have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Gibbs~ has a good rush potential.
Love has a meh pass potential.
Lions TTR is T-13th.
Packers TTR is T-4th (good).
Pace of play is T-13th (meh). O/U Rank is T-1st (good).
- Gibbs is a consideration on every slate at all times. I think LaPorta could be an interesting pivot from the higher priced TEs, as his ownership will probably be very low, especially with his down year last year. I may regretfully not have much of him though.
It is week 1, and the pricing is always out of whack because of how early these tourneys open/drop --- Of course golden is a great value, the argument goes back to wanting to fade the ownership here, or pivoting to his counter parts --- Doubs? or one of reed/wicks especially if the other doesn't suit up.
HOU@LAR
Texans have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Rams have a bad P/RB matchup.
Stroud has a meh pressure rate situation, but a good pass potential.
Stafford? has a bad pressure rate situation, and a bad pass potential. Kyren has a meh rush potential.
Texans TTR is T-19th.
Rams TTR is T-9th (good).
Pace of play is 11th (meh). O/U Rank is T-7th.
- Is Chubb going to get overlooked? I don't trust marks/pierce to handle much work, maybe I am wrong, but at 5.2K and a path to 20+ opps on an offense that can move the ball, I think he is worthy of a roster spot in some lineups. There is no WRs left on this team, Collins might end up as the WR1 for the week with the volume he may get. Doesn't mean you can dart throw higgins/noel either though.
People can't forget the bellcow that Kyren is, he may be severely underowned this week, and if he gets 85%+ of snaps, he could easily lead that category this week, and then you'll probably never see him at or below 6.5K again. Nacua is great, and there are broken values on this slate to make it easy to fit him in, but I think I'd rather have Adams at 1.5K cheaper.
I’m really hoping he just vibes more w Penix, I feel like at end of last year he appeared more passionate than before, I just can’t get off the talent, dude could be one the best te’s in league if he cared too. And if he actually puts it together these numbers crazy low!!
. Little higher than I hoped but it easy to see why and I just don’t think the saints are very good. I do think Marvin Harrison jr prob gets more consistently involved but Trey still the guy murry trust when they need a 1st down, I expect cardinals move the chains early and often so this makes sense to me.