DFS/Props Superbowl Discussion
- Thread starter ScopeY
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ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
Superbowl Sunday/Showdown Slate
SEA vs NEP
Pats have a bad P/RB matchup.
Seahawks have a meh P/RB matchup.
Both D's have good pressure rate situations.
Pats pass potential is a bit better, seahawks run potential is a bit better --- but it is weird to look at from a 1 game slate, as NEP run D is better, but going up against a better run O if that makes sense.
Pats TTR is normal.
Seahawks TTR is good.
Pace of play is slow (bad --- both teams are in the bottom 5 in terms of pace).
- I think a lot of casual DFS'ers will be entering lineups, and most tend to go for the balanced 3-3 (4-2/2-4) approach of building lineups, I am predominantly going to do mostly 5-1's and 1-5's, with a handful of 4-2's/2-4's. If a team is going to play with a 2+ possession lead, I actually believe it to be the Pats, and being that is the least likely outcome on paper, I am going to use that as leverage/uniqueness as most of the 5-1/4-2 combinations (5/4 NEP players vs 1/2 SEA players).
Anyways, JSN is of course the man with the highest floor/ceiling combo as a positional player, so it will be hard to avoid him, but he rightfully is the highest priced, I will have him, but may be a touch underweight --- he has a 32.7% target share/9.75 aDOT in the playoffs. But when you look at Kupp/Shaheed, they are pretty low priced, and if I am building lineups with a NEP lead expectation, they make sense. Kupp quietly has had a 22.5% target share, with an 8.8 aDOT, which is good for him, on PPR sites, he can easily be the 1/2 part of your lineup. Shaheed strictly for his HR hitting upside, we've seen the special teams TD already this playoffs, but he also has a huge 26.4 aDOT, he is a true <5 or >20 FP player. TE is technically the best matchup on both sides of the ball, but Barner has been non existent since having some bright spots in the regular season, in the playoffs he has just 3 targets (6%, and a 5 aDOT), I am not going to keep him completely off, as I do think he will go low owned, but I am not going overboard here. The only other cheapie I think I like is not Bobo, but Holani, after Charbs injury, he was T-3rd in targets in the championship weekend, at a 12% target share, now I obviously prefer walker, and he probably has the same floor when it comes to receptions, but Holani comes at like 20% of his price, and we have to factor in roster construction. Speaking of Walker, if you are not going JSN, you probably want him, he has hit at least 22 opps in both playoff games (3+ targets in each), and with at least 21+ FPs in each, one being a ceiling game of 38.5 FPs --- the TDs are likely to funnel between 1 of these 2.
Maye has such a solid floor due to his rushing upside, in 2 of his 3 playoff games he has hit 10 rush attempts at at least 65 rushing yards, that's a free TD without a rushing TD or any of his passing stats ---- this makes him a good captain candidate, especially with how spread this offense could be too, making it less likely a standalone player on this offense succeeds over him. If I am looking for a different capt. candidate, there are a couple ways of looking at it. I think Boutte is interesting, he has big play upside (similar to Shaheed), but he actually is much more involved in the offense, and has been #2 in target share this playoffs (20.8%), with a really good aDOT of 17.2. Diggs is fine for PPR sites, he has a 23.6% target share, but his aDOT is the worst of every positional player that isn't a RB, and he isn't cheap. If you go Henry, you are going to need a 2 TD+ performance, which isn't impossible, probably gives you uniqueness, and his middling price as a capt. may be able to get you to jam in more of the higher priced players. Otherwise, I want to look at the RBs, Stevenson obviously has the clear path to 20+ touches, and a decent PPR floor, and if the TDs funnel through the ground, he can absolutely be the optimal capt., but I kind of want to lean into Henderson --- I think nobody goes here, we know he can hit boom plays, he is dirt cheap, and coming off a 3 touch performance ---- Like I said, I personally am building a portion of my lineups with NEP playing with a 2+ lead at some points, and against HOU, he had 14 opps (2 targets), where from late in the 2nd quarter to the end of the game they had a 5 to 12 point lead --- he can let you have all the big dogs, and if he rips one for a big TD, you're going to be near the top of the leaderboard.
SEA vs NEP
Pats have a bad P/RB matchup.
Seahawks have a meh P/RB matchup.
Both D's have good pressure rate situations.
Pats pass potential is a bit better, seahawks run potential is a bit better --- but it is weird to look at from a 1 game slate, as NEP run D is better, but going up against a better run O if that makes sense.
Pats TTR is normal.
Seahawks TTR is good.
Pace of play is slow (bad --- both teams are in the bottom 5 in terms of pace).
- I think a lot of casual DFS'ers will be entering lineups, and most tend to go for the balanced 3-3 (4-2/2-4) approach of building lineups, I am predominantly going to do mostly 5-1's and 1-5's, with a handful of 4-2's/2-4's. If a team is going to play with a 2+ possession lead, I actually believe it to be the Pats, and being that is the least likely outcome on paper, I am going to use that as leverage/uniqueness as most of the 5-1/4-2 combinations (5/4 NEP players vs 1/2 SEA players).
Anyways, JSN is of course the man with the highest floor/ceiling combo as a positional player, so it will be hard to avoid him, but he rightfully is the highest priced, I will have him, but may be a touch underweight --- he has a 32.7% target share/9.75 aDOT in the playoffs. But when you look at Kupp/Shaheed, they are pretty low priced, and if I am building lineups with a NEP lead expectation, they make sense. Kupp quietly has had a 22.5% target share, with an 8.8 aDOT, which is good for him, on PPR sites, he can easily be the 1/2 part of your lineup. Shaheed strictly for his HR hitting upside, we've seen the special teams TD already this playoffs, but he also has a huge 26.4 aDOT, he is a true <5 or >20 FP player. TE is technically the best matchup on both sides of the ball, but Barner has been non existent since having some bright spots in the regular season, in the playoffs he has just 3 targets (6%, and a 5 aDOT), I am not going to keep him completely off, as I do think he will go low owned, but I am not going overboard here. The only other cheapie I think I like is not Bobo, but Holani, after Charbs injury, he was T-3rd in targets in the championship weekend, at a 12% target share, now I obviously prefer walker, and he probably has the same floor when it comes to receptions, but Holani comes at like 20% of his price, and we have to factor in roster construction. Speaking of Walker, if you are not going JSN, you probably want him, he has hit at least 22 opps in both playoff games (3+ targets in each), and with at least 21+ FPs in each, one being a ceiling game of 38.5 FPs --- the TDs are likely to funnel between 1 of these 2.
Maye has such a solid floor due to his rushing upside, in 2 of his 3 playoff games he has hit 10 rush attempts at at least 65 rushing yards, that's a free TD without a rushing TD or any of his passing stats ---- this makes him a good captain candidate, especially with how spread this offense could be too, making it less likely a standalone player on this offense succeeds over him. If I am looking for a different capt. candidate, there are a couple ways of looking at it. I think Boutte is interesting, he has big play upside (similar to Shaheed), but he actually is much more involved in the offense, and has been #2 in target share this playoffs (20.8%), with a really good aDOT of 17.2. Diggs is fine for PPR sites, he has a 23.6% target share, but his aDOT is the worst of every positional player that isn't a RB, and he isn't cheap. If you go Henry, you are going to need a 2 TD+ performance, which isn't impossible, probably gives you uniqueness, and his middling price as a capt. may be able to get you to jam in more of the higher priced players. Otherwise, I want to look at the RBs, Stevenson obviously has the clear path to 20+ touches, and a decent PPR floor, and if the TDs funnel through the ground, he can absolutely be the optimal capt., but I kind of want to lean into Henderson --- I think nobody goes here, we know he can hit boom plays, he is dirt cheap, and coming off a 3 touch performance ---- Like I said, I personally am building a portion of my lineups with NEP playing with a 2+ lead at some points, and against HOU, he had 14 opps (2 targets), where from late in the 2nd quarter to the end of the game they had a 5 to 12 point lead --- he can let you have all the big dogs, and if he rips one for a big TD, you're going to be near the top of the leaderboard.
Last edited:
wiseplayer
Let Me Be Frank With You
Major football withdrawals happening.
Timh
CTG Psychiatrist - Dr. Tim
Super Bowl 60 Betting Notebook
Ben Linsey provides data-driven, contextual betting notes for both sides of the ball for Super Bowl 60 between the New England Patriots and the Seattle Seahawks.
www.pff.com
2daBank
2024 CTG Supporting Donation Member
Played Kupp yards so that lines up. Think I rather play the ov10.5 for Holani rec just to avoid the juice but agree he gets 2-3 catches.
Treyvon has killed me these playoffs, I guess they don’t trust him?
ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
While it seems that way, and they def trust stevenson more, I want it to be because of the weather, and just letting stevenson plow along. The 2 playoff games prior he had at least 9 carries and 25 rushing yards, and that was against HOU/LAC, he just has to beat a 2 YPC avg to hit this imo, and can obviously do it even on 1 play.
2daBank
2024 CTG Supporting Donation Member
little nervous Seattle looks to take maye’s legs away but I did still play his rushing sometime last week, lol. Here what else ive played so far.
Hollins ov 24.5 rec, 50+ rec +350
Henry ov 39.5 rec
Kupp ov 33.5 rec
Holani ov 10.5 rec
Ov 2.5 players to attempt a pass +130
Non qb pass attempt +200
Pats to convert a 4th down -250
Hollins ov 24.5 rec, 50+ rec +350
Henry ov 39.5 rec
Kupp ov 33.5 rec
Holani ov 10.5 rec
Ov 2.5 players to attempt a pass +130
Non qb pass attempt +200
Pats to convert a 4th down -250
ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
3-2 game got out of hand and missed that henderson prop by 0.5, another one 
Finished the year posted at;
Total - 181-182 49.9%
These were strictly props, there where some alt lines that cashed decently (and were commented on), but overall probably down a touch, I'll take it.
I had at least 2 really nice hits in DFS throughout the year that I can be very happy with ---- I know it is not that popular (or at least seems that way) on this site, but for anyone that did it recreationally, or here and there, I hope I was able to provide some insight on how to think about roster construction when it came to bigger tourney style contests.
As another side note, I partook in 8 year long leagues, where I got 2 1sts, 2 2nds, and 1 3rd (made the playoffs in 6 of them), but also had a 12th/12, and a 13th/14. And I did my first guillotine league where I got 1st out of 16 (just skated by some weeks --- wouldn't mind doing this with CTG next year).
Was a fun year, I will be looking for late august again after march madness
Finished the year posted at;
Total - 181-182 49.9%
These were strictly props, there where some alt lines that cashed decently (and were commented on), but overall probably down a touch, I'll take it.
I had at least 2 really nice hits in DFS throughout the year that I can be very happy with ---- I know it is not that popular (or at least seems that way) on this site, but for anyone that did it recreationally, or here and there, I hope I was able to provide some insight on how to think about roster construction when it came to bigger tourney style contests.
As another side note, I partook in 8 year long leagues, where I got 2 1sts, 2 2nds, and 1 3rd (made the playoffs in 6 of them), but also had a 12th/12, and a 13th/14. And I did my first guillotine league where I got 1st out of 16 (just skated by some weeks --- wouldn't mind doing this with CTG next year).
Was a fun year, I will be looking for late august again after march madness
One of the very best threads on the net.3-2 game got out of hand and missed that henderson prop by 0.5, another one
Finished the year posted at;
Total - 181-182 49.9%
These were strictly props, there where some alt lines that cashed decently (and were commented on), but overall probably down a touch, I'll take it.
I had at least 2 really nice hits in DFS throughout the year that I can be very happy with ---- I know it is not that popular (or at least seems that way) on this site, but for anyone that did it recreationally, or here and there, I hope I was able to provide some insight on how to think about roster construction when it came to bigger tourney style contests.
As another side note, I partook in 8 year long leagues, where I got 2 1sts, 2 2nds, and 1 3rd (made the playoffs in 6 of them), but also had a 12th/12, and a 13th/14. And I did my first guillotine league where I got 1st out of 16 (just skated by some weeks --- wouldn't mind doing this with CTG next year).
Was a fun year, I will be looking for late august again after march madness
I think a lot more people use the DFS content than you realize. I know I've linked a few lurkers (read only) to your info.
I do golf DFS and was too wore out by September to try NFL. Maybe next year.