ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
We have a 2 two game slates... I'll try to keep comments to those thoughts/slates, but if you're playing a full weekend slate adjust accordingly.
Similar to last week, but slightly tweaked... I want to make note, that for PrROE and Pass&Run potential I will break them into 4 quadrants, so top 2 (great), 3-4 (good), 5-6 (meh) bottom 2 (bad). So it is not necessarily that they have a bad pass potential, but when compared to the rest, they are ranked 7th or 8th out of 8....The DVOA matchups are still broken into quadrants of all 32 teams (like the entire year) --- if you want me to note the FPs given up to the specific positions (ie. what quadrant) I can add that too.
Saturday 2 Game Slate
HOU/BAL
Texans have a bad P/RB matchup.
Ravens have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Stroud has a meh pressure rate situation, and a bad pass potential. Singletary has a bad run potential.
Lamar has a meh pressure rate situation, but a great pass potential. Gus bus?~ has a good run potential.
Texans TTR is 8th overall (4th/4 for slate - meh)
Ravens TTR is 3rd overall (2nd/4 for slate - great)
Pace of play is 2nd overall (1st of the 2). O/U Rank is 4th overall (2nd by almost a TD for slate).
- Injuries - HOU - On D, 4th week w/o S Ward (73%). DE Anderson (63%) is Q/didn't practice. Otherwise they have like 30 Q players. On O, no WR Brown (or Dell), and Woods/Metchie are Q.
- BAL - On D, CB Humphrey (80%+) is out. On O, WR/TE Duvernay/Andrews may be coming back from IR.
As much as I love what Stroud has done, he arguably has the worst matchup of the slate, the worst TT, and is priced similarly to Mahomes/Purdy.... I really don't think you can play him, but if you have conviction in what you saw vs CLV, be my guest (despite this being a road game with not the most ideal conditions). Last week Singletary played 72% of snaps (most among all backs), I don't see him falling below 70%, and maybe a negative run script will generate more PPR value, He is significantly cheaper than most backs on this slate, and he could easily see 20+ touches, I wouldn't go overboard, but don't keep him out of your pool. When considering last weeks target share/% of teams air yards, Collins is 1B (to St. Brown's 1A) for best performance. He had a 32% target share, with a big 15.14 aDOT, my biggest problem is his pricing, and the players around him, i'll have a touch of him just incase, but not a lot.. if we need salary relief Metchie makes a ton of sense. He players the most snaps (76%, no other WR aside from Collins was over 44%), he is just 3.4K, and finished with a 13.5%/9.67 aDOT, those are fine, and you'd have to assume Strouds pass volume will only be higher than last weeks. While Schultz had a big aDOT last week, he didn't even get to a 10% target share, and there's other guys with better metrics right around him (likely/Kincaid, maybe all the way up to kittle, or down to musgrave/otton), I'll hard pass.
Gus Bus's ppr value is practically 0, and his price has jumped to 5.9K... you can get a better workhorse for 200 more in montgomery, or 400/500/600 more in cook/pacheco/white --- not saying he can't but if he doesn't go for 2+ TDs, he will not be close to optimal. Oh and we don't know what Cook's role will be... pass. I think Hill is interesting.. if you want to build a script with a competitive game/BAL trailing, Hill can be valuable on PPR formats.. if mass entering, I may add him in 1 or 2 lineups. In the 3 semi competitive games post the bye week (weeks 14-16 -- vs all playoff teams), Flowers ended up with a 26% target share/8.12 aDOT.. he is one of the cheaper WR1s on this slight, so I do think he makes sense... I'll still be slightly underweight though, because I kind of like OBJ. While not as great, he comes at a cheaper price tag, and in that timeframe he solidified himself more as the WR2 deep threat on this team, as he posted a 16.5% target share, but a massive 18.44 aDOT... he is one of the few HR threats on this slate --- but I don't want to go overboard for 2 reasons.. one, the wind gusts to get to 30mph, interrupting some deep balls, and bateman has the same capabailities (despite being a poorer version of him).... I'm saying these things because I'll probably have underweight pieces of the main 2 (Flowers/OBJ), and a dot of bateman. Likely just finds TDs, and this may be the last week there is no Andrews... I probably will pass on most lineups, as I like other options, but it wouldn't shock me to see him outperform relative to his position mates. I will note in that same 3 week span he had an ok target share of 17.5%, and a good enough aDOT of 7.88.
GBP/SFO
Packers have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
49ers have a great P/RB matchup.
Love has a good pressure rate situation, but a meh pass potential. Jones has a meh run potential.
Purdy has a good pressure rate situation, and a great pass potential. CMC has a great run potential.
Packers TTR is 7th overall (3rd/4 for slate)
49ers TTR is 1st overall (1st/4 for slate - great)
Pace of play is 4th overall (meh) (2nd of the 2). O/U Rank is 1st overall (1st by almost a TD for slate - good).
- Injuries - GBP - On D, S Ford (77%) is out for 4th week, LB Enagbare (41%) is out. CB/LB Alexander(100%+)/McDuffie(58%+) are Q. On O, RB Dillon is Q.
- SFO - On D, S Odum may be making his return. DE Ferrell (43%) is out. LB Greenlaw (89%) is Q to return from a 1 week hiatus.
I want to start by saying love is a sneaky tourney play, he is priced between Purdy/Goff/Baker, who I think the majority of people will all go to them first, and his stacking partners are all super cheap. He has the best projected pass script of the slate, and it is the best weather game of the 3 outdoor ones. Don't forget about him. Watson comes into the game without an injury designation, but last week he was limited to just 41% of snaps, and had 1 target... now if that was because of the semi blowout/reinjury risk, that's fine.. but I still would use him as just a dart throw in 1 or 2 lineups max. I do have big interest in Doubs. He played the game high 70% of snaps, but had a 28.5% target share with a great 16 aDOT, that's monster number upside. If Watson role slightly increase, it has me off Wicks/Melton --- melton is at least cheap, but wicks is technically a depth WR priced where Reed is... just go reed then... You know... I made a comment about Kraft over Musgrave last week, because in musgraves return to end the season the snaps were 90% Kraft, 15% Musgrave. It still felt like the right play as the snaps were 80%/27% last week, in krafts favor, but they have the same target share, and Musgraves aDOT destroyed krafts, 10 to 2.33... I do think for tourneys, maybe dart throwing kraft could still make sense, but I don't know if I'd do it... and I don't want musgrave until we see a snap count higher than 27%.... Jones played 63% of snaps last week (I hope someone listened to me!) I still think he is a fine play.. but the matchup is a lot tougher, I am more in on Love, Dillons return could mean a new vulture candidate, and he's priced as the RB2 in a slate where we need cheapies, as we probably want to fit in CMC... I don't hate the idea of playing him, but I'll naturally be underweight because of those reasons.
CMC is really the only remaining NFL back in the league that may play 100% of snaps... in PPR formats he never put up less than 13 points (really 14...) and was held under 20 just 4 times... 9 of his 16 games he finished as a top 5 RB for the week... in a limited field, he is far and away the best option, and I will make it a priority to put him in at least 80%+ of lineups. Despite this, I think a couple Purdy stacks can still work... and looking at Aiyuk/Samuels in the 8 games post the bye, Deebo has led in target share, 25% to 22.5%, but Aiyuk womps in in aDOT, 13.06 to 6.22. He is cheaper, probably lower owned, and has bigger upside imo... I'll have some shares of both, but I lean more to Aiyuk. Kittle has quietly been good too, in the 8 game stretch he has a 21.5% target share, with a really good 9,98 aDOT, he can easily finish as the TE1, While he is my lean on the 2 game slate, I will be underweight on the 4 game. There are to many better options at the price of the WR3's Jennings/Bell, pass.
Sunday 2 Game Slate
TBB/DET
Bucs have a meh P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Lions have a meh P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Baker has a great pressure rate situation, but a meh pass potential. White has a bad run potential.
Goff has a great pressure rate situation, and a good pass potential. Montgomery/Gibbs have a good run potential.
Bucs TTR is 6th overall (4th/4 for slate)
Lions TTR is 2nd overall (1st/4 for slate - great)
Pace of play is 1st overall (1st of the 2). O/U Rank is 2nd overall (1st by 2 points for slate - good).
- Injuries - TBB - Healthy.
- DET - On O, no WR Raymond/TE Mitchell, TE LaPorta is Q.
We have 2 pass funnel defenses, playing in the fastest pace game of the weekend, and the only one that is indoors. We need to target this game in some manner in a vast majority of lineups. 1 way to get different is maybe to consider White... the guy is probably #2 in workhorse capabilities of the slate, and in a tough matchup last week he still finsihed with 21 total opps (3 targets) but his stat line looks bad due to 1, no TD, and 2, just 1 catch, not to mention, this is the lowest he has been priced since week 13. Since Week 14, this Godwin vs Evans dual has actually flipped a bit.. Yes Evans still has slate breaking upside, but in those last 5 games of the season, Godwin has a 29% target share/9,87 aDOT, to Evans 21.5% target share/11.97 aDOT, and Godwin is cheaper. This doesn't mean I don't want Evans, he graded out much better last week despite the worse stat line... as he finished with a 20% target share and a massive 19.14 aDOT... I think either can be played, I lean Godwin in more lineups though. Moore outsnapped Palmer for the first time last week, but I am not chasing it.. if punting/one-offing in a lineup where mass entering, I'd go palmer over any of the other ancillary WRs here. FINALLY OTTON.... we've been saying for practically the whole year that this guy plays a ton of snaps (94% last week), runs a ton of routes per dropback (2nd among TEs on this 8 team slate), BUT he just wasn't seeing the targets... well last week he had a huge 31.5% target share, with just a 5.45 aDOT...his price didn't move to much, so it doesn't feel like a ton of chasing, but he is definitely the best cheap TE option, it is more of an ownership discussion.. do you pivot to one of GBs, or hope for another knox TD? idk yet...
I know it wouldn't shock me to see a Montgomery 2+ TD game... but his PPR value is just gone since coming back from injury/Gibbs role expansion. In those 10 games, he has hit over 2 targets twice (both 3 targets), and under 2 targets half of the time... can we find 2/3/4/5/600 for either of Cook/Pacheco/White/Gibbs/Jones?, Yes. Now last week DET led by 1 to 2 possessions after the first score throughout the entirety of the game, Montgomery did lead the backfield because of it with just a 54% target share (15 opps, 1 target), and this stuck Gibbs to just a 34% target share, which is scary... but even in that limited snap share, which I think is worst case scenario, he finished with 12 opps (4 targets), giving him a better statline than Montgomery. I will have Gibbs --- I don't think he's a must, as DET can easily play with a lead again, but he can definitely have a huge game. Raymond is out again, which is huge for us DFS'ers. I want to mention 2 things... St. Brown is a beast, and you made need to roster him, as he had a 34.5% target share, with a 7 aDOT, but REYNOLDS must not be slept on.... the guy was almost just as good, as he had a 27% target share, with a 9,71 aDOT... the 2 of them combined for almost 95% of the teams total air yards (sorry Jam-O). Considering St. Brown is more than double Reynolds price, I will be playing a lot of Josh, and as a hedge, a tiny fraction of Jam. Williams just incase it breaks me. The snap counts of the 3 last week with ASB/Reynolds/Williams - 93%/86%/70%, don't go to Green/DPJ. LaPorta did return from injury and play 80% of snaps, but his target share was just 11.5%, and even worse, his aDOT was a TERRIBLE 1.33.... I can't trust his massive price with that kind of concern... hard pass.
KCC/BUF
Chiefs have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Bills have a great RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Mahomes has a bad pressure rate situation, and a bad pass potential. Pacheco has a meh run potential.
Allen has a bad pressure rate situation, but a good pass potential. Cook has a great run potential.
Chiefs TTR is 5th overall (3rd/4 for slate)
Bills TTR is 4th overall (2nd/4 for slate - good)
Pace of play is 3rd overall (meh) (2nd of the 2). O/U Rank is 3rd overall (2nd by 2 points for slate).
- Injuries - KCC - On D, DT Nnadi (46%) is out. On O, still no WR/RB Moore/McKinnon, and WRs Ross/Toney are Q.
- BUF - On D, CB Benford (91%), S Rapp (100%~) are out. CBs/LB Douglas(94%)/Johnson(89%)/Bernard(93%) are all Q. On O, no WR Davis.
Pacheco is a hard player to pass up on this week, I'll be normal weight on him.. he hit 70% of snaps last week, and finished with 25 opps (1 target)... I don't expect the game to by a KCC blowout, and even if his opps drops to 20-24, I'm sure his targets will rise with no mckinnon still, and aside from CMC, he may have one of the better matchups. Rice had a HUGE 35.5% target share, but a terrible 5.58 aDOT, when you are the WR1 for one of the best (if not, the best) QBs in the league, you can be considered at anytime. He is the only WR that has really solidified his place on this roster, and the weather for this week, while not great, is better than what they dealt with last week in KC. I do think this WR2s are worth a dart throw in some lineups, Watson, while having a bad aDOT compared to his regular season, still finished at 9.5, and was the only other WR over 41% of snaps (68%)... I think he is the most reliable and who I lean, but if you have conviction with MVS/Hardman, be my guest. Kelce had a huge target share of 29.5% last week, and his priced dropped to 6K.... any WR with that kind of target share (which we've seen him be able to do in the past) would be at a floor of 7K imo, Oh, and he did this while KCC led throughout... would it shock anyone to see KC trail for some/most of this game? No... and that would only bolster his stat line.
Allen (and Lamar) can always be considered because they generate most of this offense, as they have bigger rushing upside than anyone else on this slate (as well as rush TD equity too). It is part of the reason why Cook is kind of my least favorite of this dogs in his price range, but I will say, he still finished with 22 opps (4 targets) last week, which is really a good floor/ceiling combo... and if he falls in the endzone/takes away a TD from Allen, it could be the pivot needed. I'm indifferent on him. In our only game this year without Gabe Diggs had a big 30% target share, with a meh aDOT of 7.11... he is an alpha. We know he has a tough matchup on paper, and we know he has been bad to end the year, we know he is expensive relative to the other alphas on the list (cllins/evans/aiyuk/etc), but if this keeps his ownership down, I will jump again at the chance of getting an explosive game out of him. I think Shakir/Sherfield could obviously have a good game, but I really like the other cheaper options more than them... they did split time last week though, and sherfield could arguably go unowned/who I would take a dart throw on if I had too. I think it needs to be mentioned that Kincaid looked like Allens #2 option without gab last week, and not only did he turn it into a 20% target share, but a massive 14.17 aDOT too, which had to be his highest of the season, I will be playing him the most at this price range, with a shot of kittle, and maybe a dot of likely... otherwise I'm going to Kelce or down to Otton (maybe Kraft(musgrave)/dart throw Knox).
Similar to last week, but slightly tweaked... I want to make note, that for PrROE and Pass&Run potential I will break them into 4 quadrants, so top 2 (great), 3-4 (good), 5-6 (meh) bottom 2 (bad). So it is not necessarily that they have a bad pass potential, but when compared to the rest, they are ranked 7th or 8th out of 8....The DVOA matchups are still broken into quadrants of all 32 teams (like the entire year) --- if you want me to note the FPs given up to the specific positions (ie. what quadrant) I can add that too.
Saturday 2 Game Slate
HOU/BAL
Texans have a bad P/RB matchup.
Ravens have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Stroud has a meh pressure rate situation, and a bad pass potential. Singletary has a bad run potential.
Lamar has a meh pressure rate situation, but a great pass potential. Gus bus?~ has a good run potential.
Texans TTR is 8th overall (4th/4 for slate - meh)
Ravens TTR is 3rd overall (2nd/4 for slate - great)
Pace of play is 2nd overall (1st of the 2). O/U Rank is 4th overall (2nd by almost a TD for slate).
- Injuries - HOU - On D, 4th week w/o S Ward (73%). DE Anderson (63%) is Q/didn't practice. Otherwise they have like 30 Q players. On O, no WR Brown (or Dell), and Woods/Metchie are Q.
- BAL - On D, CB Humphrey (80%+) is out. On O, WR/TE Duvernay/Andrews may be coming back from IR.
As much as I love what Stroud has done, he arguably has the worst matchup of the slate, the worst TT, and is priced similarly to Mahomes/Purdy.... I really don't think you can play him, but if you have conviction in what you saw vs CLV, be my guest (despite this being a road game with not the most ideal conditions). Last week Singletary played 72% of snaps (most among all backs), I don't see him falling below 70%, and maybe a negative run script will generate more PPR value, He is significantly cheaper than most backs on this slate, and he could easily see 20+ touches, I wouldn't go overboard, but don't keep him out of your pool. When considering last weeks target share/% of teams air yards, Collins is 1B (to St. Brown's 1A) for best performance. He had a 32% target share, with a big 15.14 aDOT, my biggest problem is his pricing, and the players around him, i'll have a touch of him just incase, but not a lot.. if we need salary relief Metchie makes a ton of sense. He players the most snaps (76%, no other WR aside from Collins was over 44%), he is just 3.4K, and finished with a 13.5%/9.67 aDOT, those are fine, and you'd have to assume Strouds pass volume will only be higher than last weeks. While Schultz had a big aDOT last week, he didn't even get to a 10% target share, and there's other guys with better metrics right around him (likely/Kincaid, maybe all the way up to kittle, or down to musgrave/otton), I'll hard pass.
Gus Bus's ppr value is practically 0, and his price has jumped to 5.9K... you can get a better workhorse for 200 more in montgomery, or 400/500/600 more in cook/pacheco/white --- not saying he can't but if he doesn't go for 2+ TDs, he will not be close to optimal. Oh and we don't know what Cook's role will be... pass. I think Hill is interesting.. if you want to build a script with a competitive game/BAL trailing, Hill can be valuable on PPR formats.. if mass entering, I may add him in 1 or 2 lineups. In the 3 semi competitive games post the bye week (weeks 14-16 -- vs all playoff teams), Flowers ended up with a 26% target share/8.12 aDOT.. he is one of the cheaper WR1s on this slight, so I do think he makes sense... I'll still be slightly underweight though, because I kind of like OBJ. While not as great, he comes at a cheaper price tag, and in that timeframe he solidified himself more as the WR2 deep threat on this team, as he posted a 16.5% target share, but a massive 18.44 aDOT... he is one of the few HR threats on this slate --- but I don't want to go overboard for 2 reasons.. one, the wind gusts to get to 30mph, interrupting some deep balls, and bateman has the same capabailities (despite being a poorer version of him).... I'm saying these things because I'll probably have underweight pieces of the main 2 (Flowers/OBJ), and a dot of bateman. Likely just finds TDs, and this may be the last week there is no Andrews... I probably will pass on most lineups, as I like other options, but it wouldn't shock me to see him outperform relative to his position mates. I will note in that same 3 week span he had an ok target share of 17.5%, and a good enough aDOT of 7.88.
GBP/SFO
Packers have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
49ers have a great P/RB matchup.
Love has a good pressure rate situation, but a meh pass potential. Jones has a meh run potential.
Purdy has a good pressure rate situation, and a great pass potential. CMC has a great run potential.
Packers TTR is 7th overall (3rd/4 for slate)
49ers TTR is 1st overall (1st/4 for slate - great)
Pace of play is 4th overall (meh) (2nd of the 2). O/U Rank is 1st overall (1st by almost a TD for slate - good).
- Injuries - GBP - On D, S Ford (77%) is out for 4th week, LB Enagbare (41%) is out. CB/LB Alexander(100%+)/McDuffie(58%+) are Q. On O, RB Dillon is Q.
- SFO - On D, S Odum may be making his return. DE Ferrell (43%) is out. LB Greenlaw (89%) is Q to return from a 1 week hiatus.
I want to start by saying love is a sneaky tourney play, he is priced between Purdy/Goff/Baker, who I think the majority of people will all go to them first, and his stacking partners are all super cheap. He has the best projected pass script of the slate, and it is the best weather game of the 3 outdoor ones. Don't forget about him. Watson comes into the game without an injury designation, but last week he was limited to just 41% of snaps, and had 1 target... now if that was because of the semi blowout/reinjury risk, that's fine.. but I still would use him as just a dart throw in 1 or 2 lineups max. I do have big interest in Doubs. He played the game high 70% of snaps, but had a 28.5% target share with a great 16 aDOT, that's monster number upside. If Watson role slightly increase, it has me off Wicks/Melton --- melton is at least cheap, but wicks is technically a depth WR priced where Reed is... just go reed then... You know... I made a comment about Kraft over Musgrave last week, because in musgraves return to end the season the snaps were 90% Kraft, 15% Musgrave. It still felt like the right play as the snaps were 80%/27% last week, in krafts favor, but they have the same target share, and Musgraves aDOT destroyed krafts, 10 to 2.33... I do think for tourneys, maybe dart throwing kraft could still make sense, but I don't know if I'd do it... and I don't want musgrave until we see a snap count higher than 27%.... Jones played 63% of snaps last week (I hope someone listened to me!) I still think he is a fine play.. but the matchup is a lot tougher, I am more in on Love, Dillons return could mean a new vulture candidate, and he's priced as the RB2 in a slate where we need cheapies, as we probably want to fit in CMC... I don't hate the idea of playing him, but I'll naturally be underweight because of those reasons.
CMC is really the only remaining NFL back in the league that may play 100% of snaps... in PPR formats he never put up less than 13 points (really 14...) and was held under 20 just 4 times... 9 of his 16 games he finished as a top 5 RB for the week... in a limited field, he is far and away the best option, and I will make it a priority to put him in at least 80%+ of lineups. Despite this, I think a couple Purdy stacks can still work... and looking at Aiyuk/Samuels in the 8 games post the bye, Deebo has led in target share, 25% to 22.5%, but Aiyuk womps in in aDOT, 13.06 to 6.22. He is cheaper, probably lower owned, and has bigger upside imo... I'll have some shares of both, but I lean more to Aiyuk. Kittle has quietly been good too, in the 8 game stretch he has a 21.5% target share, with a really good 9,98 aDOT, he can easily finish as the TE1, While he is my lean on the 2 game slate, I will be underweight on the 4 game. There are to many better options at the price of the WR3's Jennings/Bell, pass.
Sunday 2 Game Slate
TBB/DET
Bucs have a meh P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Lions have a meh P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Baker has a great pressure rate situation, but a meh pass potential. White has a bad run potential.
Goff has a great pressure rate situation, and a good pass potential. Montgomery/Gibbs have a good run potential.
Bucs TTR is 6th overall (4th/4 for slate)
Lions TTR is 2nd overall (1st/4 for slate - great)
Pace of play is 1st overall (1st of the 2). O/U Rank is 2nd overall (1st by 2 points for slate - good).
- Injuries - TBB - Healthy.
- DET - On O, no WR Raymond/TE Mitchell, TE LaPorta is Q.
We have 2 pass funnel defenses, playing in the fastest pace game of the weekend, and the only one that is indoors. We need to target this game in some manner in a vast majority of lineups. 1 way to get different is maybe to consider White... the guy is probably #2 in workhorse capabilities of the slate, and in a tough matchup last week he still finsihed with 21 total opps (3 targets) but his stat line looks bad due to 1, no TD, and 2, just 1 catch, not to mention, this is the lowest he has been priced since week 13. Since Week 14, this Godwin vs Evans dual has actually flipped a bit.. Yes Evans still has slate breaking upside, but in those last 5 games of the season, Godwin has a 29% target share/9,87 aDOT, to Evans 21.5% target share/11.97 aDOT, and Godwin is cheaper. This doesn't mean I don't want Evans, he graded out much better last week despite the worse stat line... as he finished with a 20% target share and a massive 19.14 aDOT... I think either can be played, I lean Godwin in more lineups though. Moore outsnapped Palmer for the first time last week, but I am not chasing it.. if punting/one-offing in a lineup where mass entering, I'd go palmer over any of the other ancillary WRs here. FINALLY OTTON.... we've been saying for practically the whole year that this guy plays a ton of snaps (94% last week), runs a ton of routes per dropback (2nd among TEs on this 8 team slate), BUT he just wasn't seeing the targets... well last week he had a huge 31.5% target share, with just a 5.45 aDOT...his price didn't move to much, so it doesn't feel like a ton of chasing, but he is definitely the best cheap TE option, it is more of an ownership discussion.. do you pivot to one of GBs, or hope for another knox TD? idk yet...
I know it wouldn't shock me to see a Montgomery 2+ TD game... but his PPR value is just gone since coming back from injury/Gibbs role expansion. In those 10 games, he has hit over 2 targets twice (both 3 targets), and under 2 targets half of the time... can we find 2/3/4/5/600 for either of Cook/Pacheco/White/Gibbs/Jones?, Yes. Now last week DET led by 1 to 2 possessions after the first score throughout the entirety of the game, Montgomery did lead the backfield because of it with just a 54% target share (15 opps, 1 target), and this stuck Gibbs to just a 34% target share, which is scary... but even in that limited snap share, which I think is worst case scenario, he finished with 12 opps (4 targets), giving him a better statline than Montgomery. I will have Gibbs --- I don't think he's a must, as DET can easily play with a lead again, but he can definitely have a huge game. Raymond is out again, which is huge for us DFS'ers. I want to mention 2 things... St. Brown is a beast, and you made need to roster him, as he had a 34.5% target share, with a 7 aDOT, but REYNOLDS must not be slept on.... the guy was almost just as good, as he had a 27% target share, with a 9,71 aDOT... the 2 of them combined for almost 95% of the teams total air yards (sorry Jam-O). Considering St. Brown is more than double Reynolds price, I will be playing a lot of Josh, and as a hedge, a tiny fraction of Jam. Williams just incase it breaks me. The snap counts of the 3 last week with ASB/Reynolds/Williams - 93%/86%/70%, don't go to Green/DPJ. LaPorta did return from injury and play 80% of snaps, but his target share was just 11.5%, and even worse, his aDOT was a TERRIBLE 1.33.... I can't trust his massive price with that kind of concern... hard pass.
KCC/BUF
Chiefs have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Bills have a great RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Mahomes has a bad pressure rate situation, and a bad pass potential. Pacheco has a meh run potential.
Allen has a bad pressure rate situation, but a good pass potential. Cook has a great run potential.
Chiefs TTR is 5th overall (3rd/4 for slate)
Bills TTR is 4th overall (2nd/4 for slate - good)
Pace of play is 3rd overall (meh) (2nd of the 2). O/U Rank is 3rd overall (2nd by 2 points for slate).
- Injuries - KCC - On D, DT Nnadi (46%) is out. On O, still no WR/RB Moore/McKinnon, and WRs Ross/Toney are Q.
- BUF - On D, CB Benford (91%), S Rapp (100%~) are out. CBs/LB Douglas(94%)/Johnson(89%)/Bernard(93%) are all Q. On O, no WR Davis.
Pacheco is a hard player to pass up on this week, I'll be normal weight on him.. he hit 70% of snaps last week, and finished with 25 opps (1 target)... I don't expect the game to by a KCC blowout, and even if his opps drops to 20-24, I'm sure his targets will rise with no mckinnon still, and aside from CMC, he may have one of the better matchups. Rice had a HUGE 35.5% target share, but a terrible 5.58 aDOT, when you are the WR1 for one of the best (if not, the best) QBs in the league, you can be considered at anytime. He is the only WR that has really solidified his place on this roster, and the weather for this week, while not great, is better than what they dealt with last week in KC. I do think this WR2s are worth a dart throw in some lineups, Watson, while having a bad aDOT compared to his regular season, still finished at 9.5, and was the only other WR over 41% of snaps (68%)... I think he is the most reliable and who I lean, but if you have conviction with MVS/Hardman, be my guest. Kelce had a huge target share of 29.5% last week, and his priced dropped to 6K.... any WR with that kind of target share (which we've seen him be able to do in the past) would be at a floor of 7K imo, Oh, and he did this while KCC led throughout... would it shock anyone to see KC trail for some/most of this game? No... and that would only bolster his stat line.
Allen (and Lamar) can always be considered because they generate most of this offense, as they have bigger rushing upside than anyone else on this slate (as well as rush TD equity too). It is part of the reason why Cook is kind of my least favorite of this dogs in his price range, but I will say, he still finished with 22 opps (4 targets) last week, which is really a good floor/ceiling combo... and if he falls in the endzone/takes away a TD from Allen, it could be the pivot needed. I'm indifferent on him. In our only game this year without Gabe Diggs had a big 30% target share, with a meh aDOT of 7.11... he is an alpha. We know he has a tough matchup on paper, and we know he has been bad to end the year, we know he is expensive relative to the other alphas on the list (cllins/evans/aiyuk/etc), but if this keeps his ownership down, I will jump again at the chance of getting an explosive game out of him. I think Shakir/Sherfield could obviously have a good game, but I really like the other cheaper options more than them... they did split time last week though, and sherfield could arguably go unowned/who I would take a dart throw on if I had too. I think it needs to be mentioned that Kincaid looked like Allens #2 option without gab last week, and not only did he turn it into a 20% target share, but a massive 14.17 aDOT too, which had to be his highest of the season, I will be playing him the most at this price range, with a shot of kittle, and maybe a dot of likely... otherwise I'm going to Kelce or down to Otton (maybe Kraft(musgrave)/dart throw Knox).
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