DFS/Props Divisional Round Discussion

ScopeY

ScopeY

Pretty much a regular
Week 1: 8-3
Week 2: 14-14
Week 3: 10-9
Week 4: 6-8
Week 5: 2-0
Week 6: 13-11
Week 7: 6-11
Week 8: 14-9
Week 9: 9-7
Week 10: 7-8
Week 11: 4-2
Week 12: 7-10
Week 13: 8-11
Week 14: 12-13
Week 15: 7-8
Week 16: 15-6
Week 17: 15-20
Week 18: 4-8
Week 19 (WW): 9-12

Total: 170-170, 50%

Bad MNF game for me in regards to props, missed a QB pass attempt by 0.5 passes again, they got that lined tight.... we kind of got the script we wanted, but we got it way to late.
 
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Saturday/2 Game Slate

BUF@DEN

Bills have a meh P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Broncos have a great RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Allen has a meh pressure rate situation, but a good pass potential. Cook has a great rush potential.
Nix has a great pressure rate situation, but a meh pass potential. Harvey has a meh rush potential.
Bills TTR is 3rd.
Broncos TTR is 2nd (good).
Pace of play is 4th overall (meh/last). O/U Rank is 1st (but w/in 1 point).

- Cook had 18 opps (3 targets) last week, I like him in tourneys because he can hit HRs, but there's reasons to fade him too, obviously there are scenarios where BUF plays from behind, and maybe we see ty johnson (Assuming he's active), but also we know Allen is a perennial vulture candidate. Speaking of Allen, we could see another 35~ pass attempts and 10+ carries, he obviously has the biggest floor/ceiling combo on the slate, and pairing him with anyone aside from Cook is relatively cheap. Last week Shakir had a 34% target share, and the WRs on this team are even more obliterated than before, I obviously hate his aDOT, but on full PPR sites, it is hard to pass up that kind of volume. I think the rest (Cooks/Coleman/Knox are kept for one-offs or very big onslaught stacks. Kincaid is interesting, but I think I'd rather pivot to other options here, as Knox could be the TD getter, and I like the TEs on the other matchup(s) more.

In 4 of his L5 games, Harvey has hit at least 19 opps (at least 4 targets), so we have a cheap RB who gets the volume, has a PPR floor, and has the best matchup on paper for the entire weekend, the argument against him is just ownership. Looking at that same window for harvey, Sutton has a 25.6% target share, and 12.8 aDOT, nobody else not named Harvey even hits 12% target share, but there were injuries --- so when looking at games where Bryant/Franklin/Sutton were all on the field togethr, Sutton still hits at 23.3%/13.5 aDOT metrics, but Bryant is the other ancillary piece I like the most --- sorry franklin, but he and sutton had 3/4 RZ targets in those 3 games (to Franklins 1), and he beats him in target share too (16.5% to 9.7%). I guess you can TD hunt with Engram, but he had 0 RZ targets in the L3 when the WRs were all healthy --- pass.

SFO@SEA

49ers have a bad P/RB matchup.
Seahawks have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Purdy has a meh pressure rate situation, and a meh pass potential. CMC has a meh rush potential.
Darnold has a great pressure rate situation, and a great pass potential. Walker/Charb has a good rush potential.
49ers TTR is 4th (meh/last).
Seahawks TTR is 1st (good).
Pace of play is 2nd (meh). O/U rank is 2nd (but w/in 1 point).

- Last week CMC had 23 opps (8 targets --- 30%+ target share), he has the highest floor and arguably highest ceiling of any positional player not named JSN/Puka. I am kind annoyed about the whole pearsall still being a Q tag (rightfully so), but it leaves us in limbo until inactive report comes out --- I will mention this is something to take advantage of that normal players won't do (late swaps after tourneys have started), anyways --- If Pearsall is out, Robinson had a big time 27% target share/13.3 aDOT, that is extremely good for a guy in the 4K range still, but obviosuly if Pearsall is out, we have to limit expectations. What we do know is Tonges played almost every snap after Kittle went down, and he ended up with a 12.3 aDOT, which is very good for a TE. Lets not forget week 17, with pearsall in the game too, Tonges finished with a 29% target share, the guy has the highest ceiling among TEs in this small slate, and is a good pivot off Loveland, who may be one of the more popular ones. I like Jennings more if Pearsall is in, but either of those guys are one-offs at best imo.

What the hell do we do with the SEA backfield --- both of these guys hit 20+ opps last week, and 17+ the week prior, each hitting 6 total targets across the two games too. Charb has led in snaps (about 55% to 45%), and he had all the TDs (3 to 0) --- I think you have to picture them playing with a lead to really over expose yourself here, but in tourneys I think Walker gets less ownership, and he is more likely to hit a HR... but I think I will be slightly underweight in both, however I am including both. Over his L4 JSN has an insane 36.5% target share/8.9, no other player even has a 16% target share in that time frame. How serious is Darnolds injury? If there is a path to a SFO controlling the tempo, I think playing Darnold with JSN + another pass catcher could leverage you, as everyone is concerned with it, and he is probably 4th out of 4 in terms of ownership, and maybe 6th/7th out of 8 in full weekend slates. In that same timeframe above, it is actually Kupp who has led in RZ targets, and maybe an additional stacking option --- sorry shaheed, I know he can hit a HR at any time, but he has NOT hit 2 targets in the L3 games, that's insane, maybe I play him in 1 lineup just incase where mass entering. If not Kupp, the only other option is Barner, he consistently had 80 to 90% snap count games, but after the Arroyo to IR injury, he is actually 2nd in target share (15.7%) for this team, and would be my only other consideration, but I will be slightly underweight as I prefer Tonges. PLEASE let the oblique injury be an overreaction that we can leverage.
 
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Sunday/2 Game Slate

HOU@NEP

Texans have a meh P/RB matchup.
Pats have a bad P/RB matchup.
Stroud has a bad pressure rate situation, and a bad pass potential. Marks have a bad rush potential.
Maye has a bad pressure rate situation, but a good pass potential. Stevenson/Henderson have a bad rush potential.
Texans TTR is 4th (meh/last).
Pats TTR is 3rd.
Pace of play is 3rd (meh). O/U Rank is 2nd (meh/last --- but this is an 8 point gap)

- Marks hit 20 opps last week with just 1 target, now this should be a closer contest matchup, or even a positive pass script, so I expect more of a PPR floor, but either way the matchup is tough and Jordan is back. Jordan being back makes me like the Chubb rush yds under (if they provide it) even more, as they were utilizing Jordan much more over the L4~ weeks. When Collins missed week 8, so did Kirk, so I kind of take those metrics with a grain of salt, but Higgins did lead in target share (21%), and almost in aDOT (but still a good 12.1), we do however have week 18 where Collins didn't play and the starters were kind of pulled by half, but not the WRs, and it was Hutchinson that lead in target share, with a massive 32%/9.4 aDOT metrics --- I think most look at Higgins/Kirk, especially after last week, but I may take a position and be overweight Hutchinson in this one. We know Schultz can have spike games, however we know he can have a low floor too, he doesn't really excite me, but his metrics were good enough week 18 too (14.3%/9.25 aDOT) if you want to play him.

Henderson has HR upside, so maybe you can one-off him if mass entering, however he has no PPR floor/safety, he is clearly behind stevenson in the depth chart/RZ, I don't see the reason to risk it imo. Still, Stevenson had just 14 opps last week (4 targets), but with the minimal touches, 0 TDs, he still almost 3x'd this salary. Despite the 0 TDs last week, we know the equity is there, and I think he can be counted, especially if this game is played with a 1~ TD lead. In 4 of his L5 games Maye has been held UNDER 30 pass attempts, the one was in a back and forth game with BAL where he hit 44 attempts.... do we see this as a back and forth game? I don't really. This doesn't concern me for Maye so much, as he has shown that he has a rushing floor (hitting 10 attempts twice in that time frame, and 40+ rush yds 3 times) but it concerns me for his pass catchers. 1) limited volume, 2) unconcentrated targets, 3) probability of playing with a lead/slowing this game down is higher than normal). 9 different players had targets last week (5 WRs/2 TEs/2 RBs), none hit a 20% target share. If I had to pick, I lean to Diggs/Boutte, as I don't turst Chism/Williams, and don't be fooled by Douglas. Henry is who I'd rely on the most, especially if I want to avoid the TEs on this slate, I probably have a lot less of him if playing the full weekend one though. But he T-1st in targets (5/19%), had the TD, but he also had a huge aDOT of 18.2 --- he is my top stacking target or one-off that is not stevenson.

LAR@CHI

Rams have a good P/RB matchup.
Bears have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Stafford has a good pressure rate situation, and a great pass potential. Kyren has a great rush potential.
Caleb has a good pressure rate situation, but a bad pass potential. Swift/Monangai have a good rush potential.
Rams TTR is 1st (good).
Bears TTR is 2nd.
Pace of play is 1st (good). O/U Rank is 1st (but this is an 8 point gap)

- I don't need to repeat this, and you may know already, but Puka and Adams combined for almost a 74% target share, none less than 30% --- that is unbelievable. It was a combined 31 targets, the rest of the WRs totaled 1 target, kyren had 2, and the TEs (Higbee/Parkinson) had 3 each. The weather stinks, so I have my concerns, but in a normal environment you would want to play both of these guys.... my gut says to fade the exposure, and if playing them, go all in on an onslaught stack, that way you actually leverage yourself. Kyren had 15 opps to Corums 13, I do think those numbers go up if they play with a lead/it is not a shootout, but it is hard to trust either. My problem is if I fade the pass catchers, I almost want the RBs to offset it, but I probably only go here in the 2 game slate, and avoid in the full weekend. I wouldn't leave Corum of your list if mass entering though.

Swift and Monangai feels more like Kyren/Corum then Walker/Charb. Swift is definitely more of the lead back, but there is still concerns for both of them, as Swift hasn't hit over 15 opps since week 15 (we are in week 20), and Monangais opp. ceiling is even lower. Similar to Kyren, I may sprinke some in the 2 game slate, but probably avoid in the full weekend. Odunze practiced fully on friday, so I am assuming he plays with that Q tag, which frustrates the WR room still. You just can't play Walker/Zaccheus, don't get cute, and I think we still see 2+ TE sets, So it really is a shuffle of Odunze/Moore/Burden, they are all relatively priced, they all had 6-7 targets last week, with the weather concerns, and how they use Moore as a gadget guy at times, and already having the lowest aDOT of the bunch, I lean Moore over the other 2. Despite the compliment of pass catchers being healthy last week, Loveland backed up his week 18 performance of a 45% target share, with a 33% target share (and 13.9 aDOT), He may be the best one-off candidate on this side of the 2 game slate, and if he gets even 75% of that volume/production, he can still finish as the TE1, but again I'll have less of him on the full weekend slate.
 
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Already on cooks ov 22.5 rec again, he clearly bills top option on the outside yet he continues to be priced like a scrub. Tougher matchup this week but doesn’t much matter to me when a guy getting 5-6 balls a game and I assume a hefty depth of target. He could clear this with one catch but 2 absolutely puts him over.
 
2daBank said:
Already on cooks ov 22.5 rec again, he clearly bills top option on the outside yet he continues to be priced like a scrub. Tougher matchup this week but doesn’t much matter to me when a guy getting 5-6 balls a game and I assume a hefty depth of target. He could clear this with one catch but 2 absolutely puts him over.
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5 targets, which was a 14.3%~ target share (T-2nd on team), with an aDOT of 22.8 ---- so many all it takes is 1 catch ;)
 
ScopeY said:
5 targets, which was a 14.3%~ target share (T-2nd on team), with an aDOT of 22.8 ---- so many all it takes is 1 catch ;)
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Allen just missed him on a deep ball he had a step or 2 also, plus the catch they overturned that I’m still not sure bout. He easily coulda cleared 100, which he did vs a really good eagles secondary. Books not respecting he has clearly emerged as bills top option on outside.
 
templates updated, broke down the pressure rate/pass and run potentials by 1-2,3-4,5-6,7-8 for great/good/meh/bad. Pace of play is compared to all 4 games, rest are by slate comparisons.
 
The problem with Seattle backs is I never freaking know which one gonna be getting the work! I guess the good news is they both smashed their numbers vs Niners last time! with the bye and Walker looking healthy I guess it safe to assume he gonna get 15ish carries? His number only 12.5 tho and 56.5 yards, I swear anytime I try with this backfield I’m wrong on which back to play!! Lean to Walker which probably means charbonnet goes off 🤪😡😡
 
Cook ov 76.5 rush.

I been holding out cause his number been dropping all week but I guess it bottomed at at 74.5, shoulda played there but really don’t think it matters.

This my fav prop this round, I don’t think donks run d is as good as it looks on paper, they are built to rush the passer more so than stop the run imo. Bills oline bullied them in the playoffs last year as cook went for 120 and as a team bills rushed for 210! Don’t think much has changed, donks rush d on paper looks fantastic but look at the teams they have played, not many strong rushing attacks in there, colts the only one I’d say is even comparable to bills and Taylor gashed them for 165. Love that cook wasn’t overworked last week and love playing him after a down week, just the cherry on top this about the lowest number I recall seeing him at this season! This is not like last week where we knew going in it would be in bills best interest to throw on jags, think it completely opposite in this one.
 
Thoughts on Harvey Rushing Ydg? Certainly think Denver will lean on the run today to minimize Nix mistakes and attack Buff weak link on D, though Oliver huge help for Buffalo.
 
Plays so far:

Cooks ov 22.5 rec
Cook ov 76.5 rush

Adding

Franklin ov 20.5 rec, 40+ (+291)
Kincaid ov 36.5 rec
Kincaid td +300
Knox td +450
Cook 90+ rush/td +298


Tonges ov 36.5 rec
Pearsall ov 25.5 rec
Walker ov 79.5 rush+rec
 
Who is going to have that odd ball TD this year ?

There is always a OL / DL catch a TD in the playoffs. Especially w/ Vrabel.

I am looking at Juszczyh rec and TD
 
I like your take on Tonges and Walker in particular. Though I may be inclined to RY for Walker more that RR. Tonges could be sneaky good, has good hands and will get single coverage.
 
Timh said:
I like your take on Tonges and Walker in particular. Though I may be inclined to RY for Walker more that RR. Tonges could be sneaky good, has good hands and will get single coverage.
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I went back and forth on Walker Ry or rr. He probably have to go over his rush yards for me to cash rush/rec anyways, seems like the days he makes an impact in the passing game he usually has a good rushing day also. Just choose rush+rec cause niners not exactly equipped to check backs in passing game and with darnold hurting himself this week might be more inclined to have some easier throws.

Love tonges, he might not be kittle but niners have shown all year when kittle out tonges gonna be every bit involved in the passing game. Gotta think he gets less attention than kittle would and way I see it we getting a huge discount on niners te compared to where kittle number be.
 
With no Ty ray Davis td+850 is nice. Could take one to the house he’s been close


Anyone think jsn is undervalued? Number looks high but all I see is aj brown wide open last week. No way JSN drops those and he’s elite. Only Darnold turning into a pumpkin scares me. I think he smashes over props
 
R. Harvey Rush Attempts O12.5 -126
P. Bryant Rec Yds O32.5 -111
K. Shakir Receptions O5.5 -125
 
Lexington 125 said:
With no Ty ray Davis td+850 is nice. Could take one to the house he’s been close


Anyone think jsn is undervalued? Number looks high but all I see is aj brown wide open last week. No way JSN drops those and he’s elite. Only Darnold turning into a pumpkin scares me. I think he smashes over props
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yeah, really the only question mark is how does darnold actually look/feel if he suits up --- but I like his overs too, feel like I have all year honestly
 
ScopeY said:
R. Harvey Rush Attempts O12.5 -126
P. Bryant Rec Yds O32.5 -111
K. Shakir Receptions O5.5 -125
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Adding for SFO/SEA

S. Darnold Pass Yds O217.5 -113 (if he suits up, I'd think he is healthy, aka, he breaks this --- but I guess I thought Hurts would too)
C. Kupp Receptions O2.5 -138
J. Tonges Rec Yds O36.5 -113 (I like CMC props too but I stick with this for now)
 
Can't believe another injury on a prop player and he was on track to kill it, ruined a bunch of dfs lineups too...ugh
 
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ScopeY said:
3-3 (did get the injury protection via DK, but will still count it as a loss)

For the early game;

X. Hutchinson Rec Yds O30.5 -110 (took 50+ +235, 80+ +900)
X. Hutchinson Receptions O2.5 -134 (took O4.5 +399)
R. Stevenson Receptions O2.5 -118
Click to expand...

You know I love Hutchison, was just coming to post him! He been nails when Nico been out, 5-69 ans 5-84. They just not pricing him correctly as he pretty much slides into Nico spot while everyone else role remains same.
 
Hutchison ov 30.5 rec
Henderson ov 5.5 rec
Henderson ov 34.5 rush
Stevenson ov 20.5 rec

Corum ov 45.5 rush
Odunze ov 34.5 rec
 
Gonna want one of rams te’s just debating whether I want to play them both again? Worked out last week cashing both totals and one getting in endzone. With a 23.5 for Higbee and 20.5 on Parkinson def think they could both get there again.

I like Loveland but his number pretty high. Gotta think odunze be more involved this week and he cashed last it just took til like the last drive of game for him to get involved, however he was wide open on one earlier Caleb just flat out missed the throw and I saw him open a few other times Caleb went elsewhere. Rams corners are def the weakest link so you could make a case for any the bears WRs, I like odunze and think Moore be my second choice but if you told me burden was your guy I wouldn’t argue much.

Already talked bout Hutchison, love his over, he the guy who has slid into the Nico spot when Collins out but I doubt he gets the same attention Nico would.

I think the best way to attack Texans incredible d is with running backs. We have seen a bunch of backs top the 20.5 rec Stevenson at, I just couldn’t resist treveyon at 5.5 and his 34.5 rush, despite Stevenson being the guy Henderson has continued to get dd carries practically every week, you give this kid 10+ rushes I’ll say I like my chances he pops at least one for 15-20 minimum.
 
3-0 on early game, obviously late but playing this one live anyway.

First is

B. Corum Rush Yds O48.5 -120
 
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