Sunday/2 Game Slate
NEP@DEN
Pats have a meh P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Broncos have a meh P/RB matchup.
Maye has the worst pressure rate situation (4th), while having the best pass potential (1st). Stevenson~ has the worst rush potential (4th).
Stidham has a meh pressure rate situation (3rd), while having the worst pass potential (4th). Harvey~ has a meh rush potential (3rd).
Pats TTR is 2nd (good).
Broncos TTR is 4th (meh).
Pace of play is 2nd (meh). O/U Rank is 2nd (meh - by 4 points).
- My problem with the NEP pass catchers is that Maye will likely have the least amount of volume amongst all 4 QBs, as he has hit 30+ pass attempts just once since the bye (6 games), and that was in a shootout vs BAL. To add, no WR is hitting a 25% target share, while Diggs probably gets the most volume, he doesn't lead snap counts, and even a 20% target share on 30 pass attempts (being generous) is just 6 targets --- so I see where failures can arise here with what the projected script looks like, and then add in the fact that Hollins is set to return too, it only muddies up the situation more from a DFS perspective. Again, it is just a 2 game slate, so I will have some shares of Diggs/Henry, and maybe a dot of Boutte/Hollins, but the rest are no go's. Stevenson is clearly the lead back, and in any script except a blow out, he should outperform Henderson at a high likelihood, he's playing atleast 60-40% time share, hitting 62% last week, having 20 opps (4 targets --- 4 targets in each of the playoff games). He is probably my favorite play here, but if mass entering, I think you should take some darts at Henderson, as nobody will be playing him, and if he hits just one, you will easily win some money, while there is a path to 2+.
In 2 starts with LVR (2022) Stidham avg'd 21.4 FPs (28 & 14.8) but he had 7 carries in each, and avg'd 42 rush yds (34 & 50). In those games, his WR1 (adams) had a 30.7% target share with a healthy 14.25 aDOT, and his TE1 had a 17%/17 aDOT (Waller), the backfield was targetted 15% of the time (mainly Jacobs). Then in 2023, he had another 2 starts where he looked to not use his legs (8 total rush yards combined), His WR1 still led, just not as well (19.4%/13.3 aDOT), however he didn't really utilize the TE like LVR, which kind of resembles today imo, however, he upped his checkdown game even more, as the RBs had a combined 33% target share (Javonte had 19.4% alone, perine 9.7%, Mcluahglin 4.8%). Few things I take from it, when pressured, he will either scramble or check it down to a back, which we can at least set what could be a good floor for both the QB/PPR back, and that he isn't afraid to chuck it, (9.2 and 8.7 aDOTS in those 2 seasons/4 games, that would put him top 1-5 --- with Stafford/Maye too actually), we can likely fade the TE, and DEN really has 3~ WRs to consider (assuming franklin is out) this gives us ceiling hitting upside for tourneys and what is likely perceived as a most likely team to have a fade on its ownership, does that make sense? That is why I'll be taking a stance and be very overweight here.
LAR@SEA
Rams have a bad P/RB matchup.
Seahawks have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Stafford has a good pressure rate situation (2nd), while having a good pass potential too (2nd). Kyren has the best rush potential (1st).
Darnold has the best pressure rate situation (1st), while having a meh pass potential (3rd). Walker has a good rush potential (2nd).
Rams TTR is 3rd.
Seahawks TTR is 1st (good).
Pace of play is 1st (still meh). O/U Rank is 1st (good - by 4 points).
- I obviously think McVay is great, but I hate that Kyren is back to bellcow, wish he showed me it wildcard weekend, then I wouldn't care, but Corum was still pretty involved for 4+ weeks so I was a little surprised at last weeks numbers. Anyways, if Kyren has 26 opp. upside w/ a 5 target floor, he might be a must play, especially with the truthful risk of Corum actually getting more involved again (aka he may be low owned --- a reason to maybe be overweight Corum too, idk how I feel about that though). Despite liking the RBs, what I said about NEP and Maye, the opposite holds true here. Not only is Stafford likely to have the most pass attempts (he has hit 38+ in 6 straight, all of which include different game scripts), but the offense is also highly concentrated. We love that. In my mind, volume exceeds difficult matchup, and Puka/Adams fit that description as they had a combined 57.5%~ target share across both playoff games, only one other player even hit double digits, Parkinson (12.2%) --- he does have good TD equity, but I can't love every player on this team, however I would consider dart throwing the TE2's (higbee/ferguson) a couple times if mass entering.
In Walkers first start without Charbonnet, which fantasy footballers were hoping for at some point in the regular season, he hit 22 opps (3 targets) and totaled 145 yards, he is kind of close to a must start as well, as how is the opportunity count not likely his floor, and in a bad script/passing script (2+ possession deficit, I am sure he hits 5+ targets. Technically the best matchup/mismatch on paper this weekend is SEA passing O vs LAR passing D, and that begins with JSN. He has a floor/ceiling combo that really only Puka can catch, I don't need to say more, but 10+ targets 100+ yards is practically an average for him in this spot. I think Barner is an interesting pivot at TE as most will be taking a LAR TE, or Henry, but really we are TD hunting here. I think you can play the WR2's (Shaheed/Kupp) how you like. They're both cheap/salary saving options, Kupp is definitely under priced but it is glaring, so his ownership will be high but you need to have the right piece of high ownership to win, and he is a candidate to be the one, he lead in targets last week, even over the L6 weeks of the regular season he led the team in RZ targets. Shaheed makes sense because we've seen his homerun TD hitting potential just last week (punt return), and countless times on the Saints prior years.
