Detroit Is Not Afraid Of Arizona's New Offense
Week 1: Detroit at Arizona
When: 4:25 p.m. ET (FOX)
NFL Pick: Lions ATS
Odds
Eminem's hometown team opened as two-point favorites and the spread currently sits at Detroit -2.5. Money-line bettors could lay a reasonable -145 at most books to back Detroit. The Lions look to win and cover in Arizona for a second consecutive season. Last year, they beat an Arizona team that was led by current Dolphin quarterback Josh Rosen 17-3.
Arizona's New Offense Shouldn't Scare Detroit
The fact that this match-up takes place in Week 1 favors Detroit. Arizona's offense played vanilla during the preseason because Coach Kingsbury wanted to reveal as little as possible. But Lions defensive coordinator Paul Pasqualoni has plenty of experience against the Air Raid concept. He knows what sort of formations to expect. The four wide receiver sets and tempo won't surprise him.
Instead, Week 1 is a tough spot for Arizona because the Cardinals will try, for the first time, to transition seamlessly from practicing their offense to executing it at full speed in a game.
Detroit's Run Defense Is One Of The League's Best
Kyler Murray should expect little help from his run game. David Johnson will try to run behind an offensive line that, last year, ranked 25th in adjusted line yards, which is basically a metric that measures the offensive line's effectivity.
Some reasons to expect continuity include Justin Pugh having to switch from last year's right guard position to left guard although injuries kept him sidelined for much of August. His replacement at right guard, J.R. Sweezy, played left guard last year for Seattle. PFF ranked him towards the bottom of the league in run-blocking and he's also prone to holding penalties. These players contribute to PFF ranking Arizona's o-line third-to-last.
This new group of blockers faces a massive test in Detroit's front seven. Since Damon Harrison arrived to Detroit in Week 8 last season, the Lions have allowed 56 rush yards per game. Detroit's linebacking crew remains almost constant. It was one of the surest tackling groups based on stats like fewest number of opposing yards allowed after the catch.
Kyler Murray Won't Get Much Protection
Murray, then, will have to carry the bulk of Arizona's new offense on his shoulder. Again, the offensive line is an issue as it ranked seventh-to-last in adjusted sack rate allowed and additions like J.R. Sweezy, who's the 60th-worst guard over the past three years in rate of pressures allowed, offer minimal hope for improvement.
Detroit's linebackers are among those who look to feast upon Murray. Devon Kennard and Jarrad Davis found success on a historical level last year as they became the Detroit's first set of linebackers to accrue at least six sacks in a season. Overall, Lion linebackers proved to be historically good as they combined for 17 sacks last season, the most that they combined for since 1993. Part of the credit, certainly, goes to Coach Patricia's scheming ability.
Patricia will help Jahlani Tavai serve as Davis' backup and prove that his selection as a third-round pick wasn't a reach. Tavai enjoys ideal size and athleticism and showed in preseason play among other things his ability to quickly get off blocks to pursue opposing ball-carriers.
Pugh and Sweezy have much to worry about because new signing Trey Flowers and Harrison ranked among league leaders last season when lined up against a guard. Typically, Flowers controls the edge well and fellow new signing and two-time Pro Bowler Mike Daniels adds depth to a defensive line that's already stacked with talent. Murray should worry about facing pressure after how rattled and overall poor he looked when trying to handle Oakland's pressure in the preseason.
Arizona's Passing Game Struggles
When Murray isn't on the ground and even when he gets time to go through his progressions, he'll have to contend with one of the league's most underrated and top-notch lockdown corners in Darius Slay. The former two-time Pro Bowler and all-pro selection allowed the third-lowest catch rate last season and his interception numbers should rise again. He could go head-to-head with elite wide receivers like Davante Adams. So an aging Larry Fitzgerald or anyone else will pose no problem for him.
People are wrong to say that Detroit's secondary experiences a significant drop-off after Slay. Detroit boasts two reliable cornerbacks who can defend the slot, which is where Arizona's second-best receiver, Christian Kirk, was drafted to play. Justin Coleman was one of the highest-ranked corners last year both overall and in the slot with numbers actually comparable with Slay's. Jamal Agnew is also healthy again for Detroit and he, too, represents a significant upgrade over Nevin Lawson at this spot.
Detroit's Offense Has A Clear Edge
While Murray and Johnson fail to find much rhythm, Detroit's offense is salivating to face an Arizona run defense that ranked dead-last last year. Arizona's top choices to improve its run defense either got arrested or is a third-round draft pick with a very raw skill set. The injury news favors Detroit here as starting linebacker Haason Reddick could miss at least significant game action, which would put Arizona level with Detroit in terms of number of injured starting linebackers (Davis has a high ankle sprain).
Moreover, the Lions get an injury break in form of a healthy Frank Ragnow, who was the top-graded center in college. His ability to play center allows his fellow offensive linemen to play at their usual positions, whereas Arizona's offensive line features some position switches and easily lacks the same level of continuity and chemistry.
So look out for Kerryon Johnson, one of the top running backs last year in forced missed tackles, yards after contact, percentage of carries for a touchdown or first down, and the list goes on.
This is also a rare opportunity to like Detroit's passing game with Arizona missing its top two corners, Patrick Peterson and Robert Alford, and having a crisis at the position.
Conclusion
Detroit will shut down Arizona's untested and unexperienced offense with its superiority in the trenches, its front seven, and an underrated secondary. On offense, the Lions can ride Kerryon Johnson while finding balance in their passing game against Arizona's significantly absent secondary.
Week 1: Detroit at Arizona
When: 4:25 p.m. ET (FOX)
NFL Pick: Lions ATS
Odds
Eminem's hometown team opened as two-point favorites and the spread currently sits at Detroit -2.5. Money-line bettors could lay a reasonable -145 at most books to back Detroit. The Lions look to win and cover in Arizona for a second consecutive season. Last year, they beat an Arizona team that was led by current Dolphin quarterback Josh Rosen 17-3.
Arizona's New Offense Shouldn't Scare Detroit
The fact that this match-up takes place in Week 1 favors Detroit. Arizona's offense played vanilla during the preseason because Coach Kingsbury wanted to reveal as little as possible. But Lions defensive coordinator Paul Pasqualoni has plenty of experience against the Air Raid concept. He knows what sort of formations to expect. The four wide receiver sets and tempo won't surprise him.
Instead, Week 1 is a tough spot for Arizona because the Cardinals will try, for the first time, to transition seamlessly from practicing their offense to executing it at full speed in a game.
Detroit's Run Defense Is One Of The League's Best
Kyler Murray should expect little help from his run game. David Johnson will try to run behind an offensive line that, last year, ranked 25th in adjusted line yards, which is basically a metric that measures the offensive line's effectivity.
Some reasons to expect continuity include Justin Pugh having to switch from last year's right guard position to left guard although injuries kept him sidelined for much of August. His replacement at right guard, J.R. Sweezy, played left guard last year for Seattle. PFF ranked him towards the bottom of the league in run-blocking and he's also prone to holding penalties. These players contribute to PFF ranking Arizona's o-line third-to-last.
This new group of blockers faces a massive test in Detroit's front seven. Since Damon Harrison arrived to Detroit in Week 8 last season, the Lions have allowed 56 rush yards per game. Detroit's linebacking crew remains almost constant. It was one of the surest tackling groups based on stats like fewest number of opposing yards allowed after the catch.
Kyler Murray Won't Get Much Protection
Murray, then, will have to carry the bulk of Arizona's new offense on his shoulder. Again, the offensive line is an issue as it ranked seventh-to-last in adjusted sack rate allowed and additions like J.R. Sweezy, who's the 60th-worst guard over the past three years in rate of pressures allowed, offer minimal hope for improvement.
Detroit's linebackers are among those who look to feast upon Murray. Devon Kennard and Jarrad Davis found success on a historical level last year as they became the Detroit's first set of linebackers to accrue at least six sacks in a season. Overall, Lion linebackers proved to be historically good as they combined for 17 sacks last season, the most that they combined for since 1993. Part of the credit, certainly, goes to Coach Patricia's scheming ability.
Patricia will help Jahlani Tavai serve as Davis' backup and prove that his selection as a third-round pick wasn't a reach. Tavai enjoys ideal size and athleticism and showed in preseason play among other things his ability to quickly get off blocks to pursue opposing ball-carriers.
Pugh and Sweezy have much to worry about because new signing Trey Flowers and Harrison ranked among league leaders last season when lined up against a guard. Typically, Flowers controls the edge well and fellow new signing and two-time Pro Bowler Mike Daniels adds depth to a defensive line that's already stacked with talent. Murray should worry about facing pressure after how rattled and overall poor he looked when trying to handle Oakland's pressure in the preseason.
Arizona's Passing Game Struggles
When Murray isn't on the ground and even when he gets time to go through his progressions, he'll have to contend with one of the league's most underrated and top-notch lockdown corners in Darius Slay. The former two-time Pro Bowler and all-pro selection allowed the third-lowest catch rate last season and his interception numbers should rise again. He could go head-to-head with elite wide receivers like Davante Adams. So an aging Larry Fitzgerald or anyone else will pose no problem for him.
People are wrong to say that Detroit's secondary experiences a significant drop-off after Slay. Detroit boasts two reliable cornerbacks who can defend the slot, which is where Arizona's second-best receiver, Christian Kirk, was drafted to play. Justin Coleman was one of the highest-ranked corners last year both overall and in the slot with numbers actually comparable with Slay's. Jamal Agnew is also healthy again for Detroit and he, too, represents a significant upgrade over Nevin Lawson at this spot.
Detroit's Offense Has A Clear Edge
While Murray and Johnson fail to find much rhythm, Detroit's offense is salivating to face an Arizona run defense that ranked dead-last last year. Arizona's top choices to improve its run defense either got arrested or is a third-round draft pick with a very raw skill set. The injury news favors Detroit here as starting linebacker Haason Reddick could miss at least significant game action, which would put Arizona level with Detroit in terms of number of injured starting linebackers (Davis has a high ankle sprain).
Moreover, the Lions get an injury break in form of a healthy Frank Ragnow, who was the top-graded center in college. His ability to play center allows his fellow offensive linemen to play at their usual positions, whereas Arizona's offensive line features some position switches and easily lacks the same level of continuity and chemistry.
So look out for Kerryon Johnson, one of the top running backs last year in forced missed tackles, yards after contact, percentage of carries for a touchdown or first down, and the list goes on.
This is also a rare opportunity to like Detroit's passing game with Arizona missing its top two corners, Patrick Peterson and Robert Alford, and having a crisis at the position.
Conclusion
Detroit will shut down Arizona's untested and unexperienced offense with its superiority in the trenches, its front seven, and an underrated secondary. On offense, the Lions can ride Kerryon Johnson while finding balance in their passing game against Arizona's significantly absent secondary.
