NBA Picks: Our Best Bets for November 30
Detroit Pistons vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Tuesday, November 30, 2021 at 10 p.m. ET at Moda Center in Portland
Location Matters
The mantra "location, location, location" rings incredibly true when it comes to the quality of Portland's defense.
This is important to note because Portland's most recent streak can easily create the impression that its defense should not be trusted tonight.
While the Trail Blazers have allowed 129, 118, and 125 points in their last three games, respectively, those games all took place away from home.
One should have expected them to allow so many points in those games because they own the NBA's worst defensive rating in road games. These defensive struggles largely explain why Portland is 1-10 ATS on the road.
But the Trail Blazers are 7-3 ATS at home where their defensive rating improves by an incredible amount.
Perhaps it helps them to hear the Oregon faithful or perhaps they are more comfortable in their own venue. Maybe it's a mixture of both.
No matter the cause, they clearly play with increased energy and increased focus at home.
Rim Protection
Accounting for location makes all the difference in an account of Portland's rim protection.
In home games, Portland limits opponents to 56-percent shooting within five feet of the basket.
This statistic means that the Trail Blazers' rim protection is second-best at home. They regularly do a strong job of making scoring near the rim difficult for opponents.
Detroit's Offense
Portland's strong rim protection is a crucial factor for tonight's game because the Piston offense relies heavily on scoring at the basket.
Detroit averages the fifth-most field goal attempts per game within five feet of the basket. The Pistons are rather inefficient in this respect, anyways, but Portland's rim protection at home will make them even less efficient from this distance.
Piston players love driving to the basket. Cade Cunningham, for example, regularly tries to score in this way. Cory Joseph and, of course, Jerami Grant, also accrue many drives per game.
They will struggle to score how they want to in Portland tonight.
Portland Offense vs. Piston Defense
Offensively, Portland primarily intends to shoot threes. The Trail Blazers attempt the sixth-most three-pointers per game.
Defensively, it is easy to underrate the Piston perimeter defense because of the high three-point percentage that opponents achieve against Detroit.
But opposing three-point percentage is a misleading statistic because it does not simply reflect the quality of the team's perimeter defense.
If a team plays tight defense, for example, but allows many threes, then the defense should still get credit for playing tightly. No defense could possibly control what happens when the ball is in the air.
Such is the case for the Piston defense: Detroit has allowed the sixth-highest three-point percentage on tightly defended three-point attempts.
Opponents have been similarly ruthless when they are open or wide open against Detroit's defense.
But the Pistons will lower their opposing three-point percentage over time because they are strong at limiting opponents' good opportunities.
Specifically, they allow the ninth-fewest open three-point attempts and their ability to limit wide open three-point attempts is similarly higher-level.
In general, Piston players are great at running opponents off the three-point line. They allow the fourth-fewest attempts from behind the arc.
Detroit's good perimeter defense will make the Trail Blazer offense uncomfortable and contribute to a low-scoring game.
Best Bet: Pistons/Trail Blazers Under 216 at -108
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Toronto Raptors
Tuesday, November 30, 2021 at 7:30 p.m. ET at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto
Toronto Offense vs. Memphis Defense
It is a very telling sign for this game that, on November 24, Toronto was able to amass 126 points in Memphis.
This fact is important because Memphis' defense is immensely worse on the road where the Grizzlies suffer the second-worst defensive rating.
In road games, Memphis regularly allows teams to do what they want. In Memphis' most recent road games, Utah scored 118 and Minnesota collected 138 points.
Because Toronto, as part of a strong second half, was able to get out in transition in Memphis, one has every reason to expect at least as strong of a transition attack in Toronto.
In general, the Grizzlies are one of the worst teams at limiting PPP (points per possession) in transition. Because Toronto loves to score in transition, it will magnify the Grizzlies' issues with transition defense.
Memphis Offense vs. Toronto Defense
The Grizzlies showed last night, in their 128-101 win over Sacramento, that they can score a lot without Ja Morant.
Their forwards will help put up points and they enjoy strong scoring depth, without Morant, at the guard position.
They still love to attack within five feet of the basket as tough-minded players like Dillon Brooks drive hard to the basket.
Memphis will score comfortably against a Toronto defense that is characteristically deficient inside.
The Raptors have tall players, but not players that match the opponents' tallest players in height.
They lack, moreover, a traditional rim protector. Power forward Pascal Siakam, for example, starts at center at just 6-8.
With towering figures like Steven Adams, Memphis is one of the top offensive rebounding teams, which means it will follow up misses with quick baskets.
But the Grizzlies won't miss often inside because Toronto allows the fourth-highest field goal percentage within five feet of the basket.
Memphis inside scoring and Memphis road defense will help ensure a high-scoring game.
Best Bet: Grizzlies/Raptors Over 219.5 at -110 with Bovada
Detroit Pistons vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Tuesday, November 30, 2021 at 10 p.m. ET at Moda Center in Portland
Location Matters
The mantra "location, location, location" rings incredibly true when it comes to the quality of Portland's defense.
This is important to note because Portland's most recent streak can easily create the impression that its defense should not be trusted tonight.
While the Trail Blazers have allowed 129, 118, and 125 points in their last three games, respectively, those games all took place away from home.
One should have expected them to allow so many points in those games because they own the NBA's worst defensive rating in road games. These defensive struggles largely explain why Portland is 1-10 ATS on the road.
But the Trail Blazers are 7-3 ATS at home where their defensive rating improves by an incredible amount.
Perhaps it helps them to hear the Oregon faithful or perhaps they are more comfortable in their own venue. Maybe it's a mixture of both.
No matter the cause, they clearly play with increased energy and increased focus at home.
Rim Protection
Accounting for location makes all the difference in an account of Portland's rim protection.
In home games, Portland limits opponents to 56-percent shooting within five feet of the basket.
This statistic means that the Trail Blazers' rim protection is second-best at home. They regularly do a strong job of making scoring near the rim difficult for opponents.
Detroit's Offense
Portland's strong rim protection is a crucial factor for tonight's game because the Piston offense relies heavily on scoring at the basket.
Detroit averages the fifth-most field goal attempts per game within five feet of the basket. The Pistons are rather inefficient in this respect, anyways, but Portland's rim protection at home will make them even less efficient from this distance.
Piston players love driving to the basket. Cade Cunningham, for example, regularly tries to score in this way. Cory Joseph and, of course, Jerami Grant, also accrue many drives per game.
They will struggle to score how they want to in Portland tonight.
Portland Offense vs. Piston Defense
Offensively, Portland primarily intends to shoot threes. The Trail Blazers attempt the sixth-most three-pointers per game.
Defensively, it is easy to underrate the Piston perimeter defense because of the high three-point percentage that opponents achieve against Detroit.
But opposing three-point percentage is a misleading statistic because it does not simply reflect the quality of the team's perimeter defense.
If a team plays tight defense, for example, but allows many threes, then the defense should still get credit for playing tightly. No defense could possibly control what happens when the ball is in the air.
Such is the case for the Piston defense: Detroit has allowed the sixth-highest three-point percentage on tightly defended three-point attempts.
Opponents have been similarly ruthless when they are open or wide open against Detroit's defense.
But the Pistons will lower their opposing three-point percentage over time because they are strong at limiting opponents' good opportunities.
Specifically, they allow the ninth-fewest open three-point attempts and their ability to limit wide open three-point attempts is similarly higher-level.
In general, Piston players are great at running opponents off the three-point line. They allow the fourth-fewest attempts from behind the arc.
Detroit's good perimeter defense will make the Trail Blazer offense uncomfortable and contribute to a low-scoring game.
Best Bet: Pistons/Trail Blazers Under 216 at -108
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Toronto Raptors
Tuesday, November 30, 2021 at 7:30 p.m. ET at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto
Toronto Offense vs. Memphis Defense
It is a very telling sign for this game that, on November 24, Toronto was able to amass 126 points in Memphis.
This fact is important because Memphis' defense is immensely worse on the road where the Grizzlies suffer the second-worst defensive rating.
In road games, Memphis regularly allows teams to do what they want. In Memphis' most recent road games, Utah scored 118 and Minnesota collected 138 points.
Because Toronto, as part of a strong second half, was able to get out in transition in Memphis, one has every reason to expect at least as strong of a transition attack in Toronto.
In general, the Grizzlies are one of the worst teams at limiting PPP (points per possession) in transition. Because Toronto loves to score in transition, it will magnify the Grizzlies' issues with transition defense.
Memphis Offense vs. Toronto Defense
The Grizzlies showed last night, in their 128-101 win over Sacramento, that they can score a lot without Ja Morant.
Their forwards will help put up points and they enjoy strong scoring depth, without Morant, at the guard position.
They still love to attack within five feet of the basket as tough-minded players like Dillon Brooks drive hard to the basket.
Memphis will score comfortably against a Toronto defense that is characteristically deficient inside.
The Raptors have tall players, but not players that match the opponents' tallest players in height.
They lack, moreover, a traditional rim protector. Power forward Pascal Siakam, for example, starts at center at just 6-8.
With towering figures like Steven Adams, Memphis is one of the top offensive rebounding teams, which means it will follow up misses with quick baskets.
But the Grizzlies won't miss often inside because Toronto allows the fourth-highest field goal percentage within five feet of the basket.
Memphis inside scoring and Memphis road defense will help ensure a high-scoring game.
Best Bet: Grizzlies/Raptors Over 219.5 at -110 with Bovada
