Bet This MLB Parlay at (+183) on Wednesday
Detroit Tigers vs. Boston Red Sox
Wednesday, June 22, 2022 at 7:10 p.m. ET at Fenway Park in Boston
Who Pitches for Detroit?
Detroit starts Tarik Skubal whose awesome pitching stats indicate the success that he's enjoyed, overall, this season
The key word is "overall."
While it may be tempting to rely on Skubal because of his superb ERA, one must remember that ERA is a season-long statistic, and it is a long season.
Skubal's ERA misleads one as to how he is performing at this moment.
He seems to have hit a wall as he has allowed a total of nine earned runs in his last two starts.
After surrendering four earned runs in four innings against Toronto, he allowed five earned runs in five innings against Texas.
He collected the loss in both games.
Skubal vs. Red Sox Batters
It makes particularly good sense to expect Skubal to suffer tonight because he matches up poorly with Red Sox batters.
Skubal, a lefty, primarily throws a slider, fastball, sinker, and changeup.
These pitches make up just over 92 percent of his arsenal.
Boston ranks eighth in slugging against these pitches from lefties.
Among others, look out for Xander Bogaerts who is batting .392 and slugging .549 against lefties.
Who Starts for Boston?
The Red Sox start Michael Wacha tonight who is an auto-play in Boston..
This season, he has yielded three earned runs in 26.1 innings at home.
In Boston, opponents are hitting .185 and slugging .283 against Wacha.
Yielding +5.1 units for his backers, he is by far Boston's most profitable pitcher overall on the season, largely due to his strong performances at home.
Wacha promises to thrive tonight because the Tigers rank dead-last in slugging against what are his two favorite pitches by far, his fastball and changeup, from righties.
The Red Sox are being criminally underpriced thanks to their slow start to this season and thanks to Skubal's early-season achievements.
Tonight presents an excellent opportunity to catch Boston at a price that is too cheap.
Cleveland Guardians vs. Minnesota Twins
Wednesday, June 22, 2022 at 7:40 p.m. ET at Target Field in Minnesota
Who Starts for Cleveland?
Cleveland starts Triston McKenzie.
In his last start against the Twins, McKenzie was very fortunate to allow three runs in seven innings.
His strong ERA in that start masks his awful 6.56 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) which reflects how poorly he actually performed in that start.
McKenzie benefitted in that start from yielding a BABIP (batting average of balls in play) that was absurdly low given the awful job he did of preventing batters from making hard contact with his pitches.
Plus, he benefitted from a strand rate that could hardly have been higher.
McKenzie vs. Twin Batters
One should expect the Twins to perform superbly against McKenzie tonight because he is clearly a finesse pitcher --- he doesn't throw hard at all -- with extremely marked fly ball tendencies.
Based on BA and slugging rate, the Twins are at their best against fly ball pitchers as opposed to ground ball ones and are easily at their best against finesse pitchers as opposed to power ones.
Plus, the Twins rank fifth in slugging against his favorite pitches from righties.
Who Starts for Minnesota?
The Twins start Sonny Gray who is an auto play right now.
They have won the last six games in which he started, his strong performances being the biggest reason why.
Gray has allowed a sub-two FIP in each of his last four starts.
During this four-game span, he has allowed a combined total of three earned runs.
Gray vs. Guardian Batters
He is sure to prolong his excellent form against a Guardian squad that ranks below average in slugging against his favorite pitches from righties.
For example, expect little from Jose Ramirez.
Ramirez is tremendously important to Cleveland's lineup.
However, he is no match for Gray.
Against Gray, he is slugging .296 in 27 career at-bats.
Best Bet: Parlay Red Sox ML at -148 & Twins ML at -145 at +183 odds with BetOnline
Detroit Tigers vs. Boston Red Sox
Wednesday, June 22, 2022 at 7:10 p.m. ET at Fenway Park in Boston
Who Pitches for Detroit?
Detroit starts Tarik Skubal whose awesome pitching stats indicate the success that he's enjoyed, overall, this season
The key word is "overall."
While it may be tempting to rely on Skubal because of his superb ERA, one must remember that ERA is a season-long statistic, and it is a long season.
Skubal's ERA misleads one as to how he is performing at this moment.
He seems to have hit a wall as he has allowed a total of nine earned runs in his last two starts.
After surrendering four earned runs in four innings against Toronto, he allowed five earned runs in five innings against Texas.
He collected the loss in both games.
Skubal vs. Red Sox Batters
It makes particularly good sense to expect Skubal to suffer tonight because he matches up poorly with Red Sox batters.
Skubal, a lefty, primarily throws a slider, fastball, sinker, and changeup.
These pitches make up just over 92 percent of his arsenal.
Boston ranks eighth in slugging against these pitches from lefties.
Among others, look out for Xander Bogaerts who is batting .392 and slugging .549 against lefties.
Who Starts for Boston?
The Red Sox start Michael Wacha tonight who is an auto-play in Boston..
This season, he has yielded three earned runs in 26.1 innings at home.
In Boston, opponents are hitting .185 and slugging .283 against Wacha.
Yielding +5.1 units for his backers, he is by far Boston's most profitable pitcher overall on the season, largely due to his strong performances at home.
Wacha promises to thrive tonight because the Tigers rank dead-last in slugging against what are his two favorite pitches by far, his fastball and changeup, from righties.
The Red Sox are being criminally underpriced thanks to their slow start to this season and thanks to Skubal's early-season achievements.
Tonight presents an excellent opportunity to catch Boston at a price that is too cheap.
Cleveland Guardians vs. Minnesota Twins
Wednesday, June 22, 2022 at 7:40 p.m. ET at Target Field in Minnesota
Who Starts for Cleveland?
Cleveland starts Triston McKenzie.
In his last start against the Twins, McKenzie was very fortunate to allow three runs in seven innings.
His strong ERA in that start masks his awful 6.56 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) which reflects how poorly he actually performed in that start.
McKenzie benefitted in that start from yielding a BABIP (batting average of balls in play) that was absurdly low given the awful job he did of preventing batters from making hard contact with his pitches.
Plus, he benefitted from a strand rate that could hardly have been higher.
McKenzie vs. Twin Batters
One should expect the Twins to perform superbly against McKenzie tonight because he is clearly a finesse pitcher --- he doesn't throw hard at all -- with extremely marked fly ball tendencies.
Based on BA and slugging rate, the Twins are at their best against fly ball pitchers as opposed to ground ball ones and are easily at their best against finesse pitchers as opposed to power ones.
Plus, the Twins rank fifth in slugging against his favorite pitches from righties.
Who Starts for Minnesota?
The Twins start Sonny Gray who is an auto play right now.
They have won the last six games in which he started, his strong performances being the biggest reason why.
Gray has allowed a sub-two FIP in each of his last four starts.
During this four-game span, he has allowed a combined total of three earned runs.
Gray vs. Guardian Batters
He is sure to prolong his excellent form against a Guardian squad that ranks below average in slugging against his favorite pitches from righties.
For example, expect little from Jose Ramirez.
Ramirez is tremendously important to Cleveland's lineup.
However, he is no match for Gray.
Against Gray, he is slugging .296 in 27 career at-bats.
Best Bet: Parlay Red Sox ML at -148 & Twins ML at -145 at +183 odds with BetOnline
