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Denver Nuggets vs. Boston Celtics
Tuesday, February 16, 2021 at 7 p.m. ET at TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts
Denver’s Injuries
Three different Denver starters have been ruled ‘out’ for tonight’s contest.
Those three are: Paul Millsap, Will Barton, and Gary Harris.
Moreover, Monte Morris regularly sees a lot of minutes at point guard. But the effective sixth man will also miss tonight’s game.
Of the seven Nugget players who average a double-digit point total, four will be absent.
But there are a few bright spots particularly on the defensive side of the ball.
With Denver’s various injuries at its guard position, Facundo Campazzo is seeing more playing time.
Campazzo does not typically contribute a lot of scoring. But he’s cultivating a reputation for being a pesky defender, a pest on defense, which is why his defensive rating is a solid 101.3.
The same things can be said for JaMychal Green and RJ Hampton.
Neither player is a starter because each one is limited offensively. Neither player is an efficient scorer.
But Green is a tough, stout defender inside. As measured by opposing PPP (points per possession), he’s elite at guarding the pick-and-roll ball-handler action, which Boston runs a lot of.
Hampton also carries a reputation for being a strong on-ball defender. His on-ball defense allows him to have a stronger defensive rating than Barton and Harris.
Opposing Point Guards
While Boston continues to miss Marcus Smart, it still has the personnel keep opposing point guards in check.
One example is Wizard point guard Russell Westbrook, who prioritizes his personal stats over his team’s success.
In the Celtics’ last game, they limited Westbrook to his worst offensive performance in February as Westbrook was 6-for-19 on the floor.
Credit goes to the on-ball defense of Kemba Walker, whose ability to keep Jamal Murray in check tonight will be crucial given Denver’s overall lack of scoring options.
In various games, like against Philadelphia, Boston has invested more double-teams in the post in order to contain the opponent’s star center.
I imagine that the Celtics will often double-team Nikola Jokic in order to force a bunch of backups and rather defensive-minded players to score enough points.
Key Celtic Players
While I favor the defensive abilities of the Nugget players who will see more playing time, these defensively-minded players won’t be on the court all the time and they’ll have more responsibility and less support through depth than they’re able to handle.
Overall, Denver is missing five players who would occupy the shooting guard or small forward positions.
The Celtics will have the edge in tonight’s contest because their two top scorers occupy both of these positions.
While Jaylen Brown averages 26 points per game, Jayson Tatum averages 25.6.
Brown is an efficient shooter — his three-point conversion rate is 40.9 — who grows more effective off the bounce.
Tatum, though also an efficient shooter and comfortable in the mid-range game, is more active at the rim and from behind the arc, where players tend to score more successfully.
His versatility explains why he is tasked with creating more in Boston’s offense be it in isolation plays or off a screen.
Brown and Tatum are also known for being strong perimeter defenders who possess good defensive ratings.
Tatum is versatile on defense, allowing him to switch one-through-four and to help contain high-level ball-handlers like Atlanta’s Trae Young.
Brown displays the same versatility. Being able to switch helps keep the opponent from using a screen to procure an open look from three.
This versatility and prowess along the perimeter are important against a Denver team that, lately, has been attempting about as many three-pointers as any other team.
The Celtics rank eighth in limiting opposing three-point percentage.
Trends
Tonight’s situation specifically favors Boston.
The Celtics are 5-0 ATS when returning home for their first game off of a road trip.
They are also 4-1 ATS on the first game of a back-to-back-.
The Verdict
Denver’s loss in scoring production, its recent reliance on three-point shooting, Boston’s perimeter defense, and Boston’s ability to keep opposing point guards in check will keep the scoring low.
Boston’s advantage in health will moreover allow the likes of Brown and Tatum to also establish an edge offensively.
Best Bet: Parlay Celtics ATS & Under (Odds TBA)
Denver Nuggets vs. Boston Celtics
Tuesday, February 16, 2021 at 7 p.m. ET at TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts
Denver’s Injuries
Three different Denver starters have been ruled ‘out’ for tonight’s contest.
Those three are: Paul Millsap, Will Barton, and Gary Harris.
Moreover, Monte Morris regularly sees a lot of minutes at point guard. But the effective sixth man will also miss tonight’s game.
Of the seven Nugget players who average a double-digit point total, four will be absent.
But there are a few bright spots particularly on the defensive side of the ball.
With Denver’s various injuries at its guard position, Facundo Campazzo is seeing more playing time.
Campazzo does not typically contribute a lot of scoring. But he’s cultivating a reputation for being a pesky defender, a pest on defense, which is why his defensive rating is a solid 101.3.
The same things can be said for JaMychal Green and RJ Hampton.
Neither player is a starter because each one is limited offensively. Neither player is an efficient scorer.
But Green is a tough, stout defender inside. As measured by opposing PPP (points per possession), he’s elite at guarding the pick-and-roll ball-handler action, which Boston runs a lot of.
Hampton also carries a reputation for being a strong on-ball defender. His on-ball defense allows him to have a stronger defensive rating than Barton and Harris.
Opposing Point Guards
While Boston continues to miss Marcus Smart, it still has the personnel keep opposing point guards in check.
One example is Wizard point guard Russell Westbrook, who prioritizes his personal stats over his team’s success.
In the Celtics’ last game, they limited Westbrook to his worst offensive performance in February as Westbrook was 6-for-19 on the floor.
Credit goes to the on-ball defense of Kemba Walker, whose ability to keep Jamal Murray in check tonight will be crucial given Denver’s overall lack of scoring options.
In various games, like against Philadelphia, Boston has invested more double-teams in the post in order to contain the opponent’s star center.
I imagine that the Celtics will often double-team Nikola Jokic in order to force a bunch of backups and rather defensive-minded players to score enough points.
Key Celtic Players
While I favor the defensive abilities of the Nugget players who will see more playing time, these defensively-minded players won’t be on the court all the time and they’ll have more responsibility and less support through depth than they’re able to handle.
Overall, Denver is missing five players who would occupy the shooting guard or small forward positions.
The Celtics will have the edge in tonight’s contest because their two top scorers occupy both of these positions.
While Jaylen Brown averages 26 points per game, Jayson Tatum averages 25.6.
Brown is an efficient shooter — his three-point conversion rate is 40.9 — who grows more effective off the bounce.
Tatum, though also an efficient shooter and comfortable in the mid-range game, is more active at the rim and from behind the arc, where players tend to score more successfully.
His versatility explains why he is tasked with creating more in Boston’s offense be it in isolation plays or off a screen.
Brown and Tatum are also known for being strong perimeter defenders who possess good defensive ratings.
Tatum is versatile on defense, allowing him to switch one-through-four and to help contain high-level ball-handlers like Atlanta’s Trae Young.
Brown displays the same versatility. Being able to switch helps keep the opponent from using a screen to procure an open look from three.
This versatility and prowess along the perimeter are important against a Denver team that, lately, has been attempting about as many three-pointers as any other team.
The Celtics rank eighth in limiting opposing three-point percentage.
Trends
Tonight’s situation specifically favors Boston.
The Celtics are 5-0 ATS when returning home for their first game off of a road trip.
They are also 4-1 ATS on the first game of a back-to-back-.
The Verdict
Denver’s loss in scoring production, its recent reliance on three-point shooting, Boston’s perimeter defense, and Boston’s ability to keep opposing point guards in check will keep the scoring low.
Boston’s advantage in health will moreover allow the likes of Brown and Tatum to also establish an edge offensively.
Best Bet: Parlay Celtics ATS & Under (Odds TBA)
He would have been very helpful defending Jokic I think.
