Degen Dave's MLB Picks

[DegenDave]

Started keeping track of my plays on twitter in June. I run a model on MLB that shows me where the line/total should be and it shows me where there is value on a side and total.

Record: 85-83-3 (+11.6 units)

07/29/2014 Card:

MARINERS +100
PHILLIES -120
TWINS +175
BREWERS +150
COL/CHC Over 7.5
BOS/TOR Under 9
MIA/WSH Over 7
OAK/HOU Under 8
NYY/LAD +150
OAK/LAD +140



all plays are 1 unit unless otherwise stated. Dogs i risk 1 unit (i.e. Min +175 1 U to win 1.75 U) Favs i risk the juice to win 1 unit (i.e. Phi -120, 1.2u to win 1 U)


Feel free to give me a follow on twitter: iamadegen

I usually provide some reasoning or statistics behind my plays or what the model spits out.

For instance:
KC should be -150/-160, MIN +130/+140. Great value on MIN +175.. not necessarily saying there gonna win, obviously i hope they do, but there is value here on MIN.


BOL

 

[a86r]

GL Dave!

 

[The Capping Genius]

good luck

 

[DegenDave]

thank you fellas! I've been following cappers on here for a while (i.e. MrGameHunter) thought id try it out for myself and see how i do.

PHI -120

In 9 GS away from Home Hamels: 3-3 1.93 ERA 60.2 IP 61K/20 BB .229 BAA
Last 3 times Phillies have lost a game before Hamels pitched:

vs MIL W 6 2/3 1 ER 7 Ks
vs ATL W 7 IP 1 ER 9Ks
vs SF W 8 IP 1 ER 10Ks
total: 3-0 21 2/3 IP 3 ER (1.24 ERA) 26 Ks

PHI is a tough team to back with all the trade talk and poor play, but Hamels is the one guy that you can rely on for PHI

SEA +100

line should be SEA -130/-140, Cle +120

Value here on Iwakuma who is strong on the road in 6 GS: 4-0 3.18 ERA
SEA is also one of the better teams on the road with a 28-20 record. CLE is playing well and also very good at home (29-19) so somethings got to give, but ill take the value on Iwakuma vs Bauer


CHC/COL Over 7.5

Kinda shocked that the total is this low. Edwin Jackson has got to be the worst Free Agent signing in recent memory.

Jackson at Home: in 10 GS 4-4 5.53 ERA in 55.1 IP 62 H .288 BAA (somehow numbers are even worse on the road) CarGo is 7/9 2 2b 1 3b 1BB and 6 RBI vs Edwin

De La Rosa may be Colorado's only reliable pitcher, however he is only good in Colorado at Coors field (weird right?)
De La Rosa Away from Coors: in 10 GS 4-4 52 IP 49 H .252 BAA
Cubs rank among the best hitting teams vs LHP

MIL +150
I have MIL as a -120 FAV here. I know TB is the hottest team in the league right now and its hard to go against them, but MIL is no slouch of a team. Despite Garza's start against WAS 2 starts ago, Garza has been in really good form and with the potent lineup behind him its hard to not like MIL +150 here.

sorry if thats a bit lengthy, just trying to show you guys what i look at for my reasoning behind my picks. Hope this info can somewhat help you make some decisions today.

BOL everybody!

 

[DegenDave]

2 adds:
OAK/HOU Under 8
Doug Eddings is the Home plate umpire. Games with Easy E behind the plate are 15-5 to the under

WSH/MIA Over 7
Nationals are 14-2 to the Over in the last 16 NL East divisional road games
Strasburg's last 9 starts vs MIA are 8-1 to the Over with an average of 11 runs per game
Strasburg has bad numbers on the road 1-6 5.09 ERA

 

[play ball]

sorry if thats a bit lengthy, just trying to show you guys what i look at for my reasoning behind my picks. Hope this info can somewhat help you make some decisions today.

BOL everybody!

I am one who appreciates the write ups. They are not lengthy to me. Perfect for helping me cap the game.

BOL with your plays and welcome to CTG.

 

[bloodhound]

I wish everyone could post some thoughts when time permitts

Welcome and GL

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Welcome aboard, DD. BOL tonight & with the ongoing task of retaining your sanity in the face of that manifestation in reality known as bullpens.

 

[cashflowmatters]

Nice looking card, welcome & gl on the action