College Football Bowl Games Best Bets for December 27-30
Oklahoma Sooners vs. Navy Midshipmen
Friday, December 27, 2024 at Amon G. Carter Stadium
Oklahoma's Inferior Motivation
A vital angle for bowl game betting is team motivation.
The odds do not directly reflect the motivation level of competing teams. As a result, betting value in the underdog of a given bowl game will be perceptible when the favored team is expected to lack motivation.
Oklahoma head coach Brent Venables enters this game 0-2 in bowl games.
We saw, last year, what his Sooners are like in a bowl game against a lower-profile team.
They lost by two touchdowns to Arizona.
Oklahoma is a high-profile football program. The Sooners will not be motivated to play in this game, which is a postseason game but not a College Football Playoff game and which comes against a low-profile, service academy team.
Navy, because of its characteristically physical, run-focused approach as part of its option-heavy offense, requires a lot of motivation from its opponent.
Whereas OU will lack this motivation, Navy is going to be excited to face a high-profile team.
Oklahoma's Offensive Deficiencies
Even if Oklahoma were motivated for this game, it is favored by too many points given the deficiencies of its offense.
When considering whether to bet on the favorite, especially when that team is favored by more than a touchdown, you obviously want to have confidence in its ability to score with ease.
But the Sooners bring the 110th-ranked scoring offense into this matchup.
They have suffered this season with the play of their quarterbacks.
Jackson Arnold was Oklahoma's quarterback for the majority of the season.
Sooners fans have complained vociferously about his struggles with decision-making and accuracy.
And yet he was the best quarterback on the team. While he was benched, he also returned to the starting role because the team lacks competent alternatives.
One of those incompetent alternatives will be Michael Hawkins Jr., who has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns.
He will start in this game while Arnold will transfer to Auburn.
Plus, Oklahoma's top two pass-catchers are set to transfer and are accordingly missing from the team's depth chart.
Takeaway
In order to contain Navy's offense, a defense requires physicality, toughness, and other forms of discipline. Oklahoma will lack this discipline.
The Sooners also lack weapons on offense. Navy won't need to score a lot of points in order to cover the spread, but the Midshipmen won't have trouble scoring in this matchup.
Best Bet: Navy +8 at -110 with BetOnline
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs. Vanderbilt Commodores
Friday, December 27, 2024 at 3:30 p.m. ET at Protective Stadium
The Headline
This game inspires viewer enthusiasm because of the strong and exciting play of each team's dual-threat quarterback.
Both Georgia Tech's Haynes King and Vanderbilt's Diego Pavia make a lot of things happen with their arm and with their legs.
King and Pavia will duel and contribute to the "over."
Outlook for Georgia Tech's Defense
The Yellow Jackets' worst defensive performances this season did not unequivocally come in their games against the best quarterbacks that they faced.
Instead of allowing the most points to Cam Ward and Miami, they allowed 34 points to North Carolina, 29 points to NC State, and 31 points to Notre Dame.
In those games, North Carolina's Jacolby Criswell ran for 73 yards on 5.6 YPC and two touchdowns. NC State's CJ Bailey was his team's leading rusher with 83 yards on 9.2 YPC and three touchdowns. Notre Dame's Riley Leonard was almost his team's leading rusher with 51 yards on 5.1 YPC and two touchdowns.
Evidently, mobile quarterbacks thrive against Georgia Tech and help their respective offense score a lot of points when they face the Yellow Jackets.
Outlook for Vanderbilt's Defense
Vanderbilt has likewise shown vulnerability to opposing mobile quarterbacks, such as when Tennessee's quarterback Nico Iamaleava attained his third-highest rushing total of the year in what was his only really solid road performance this season.
The Commodores are especially weak against the pass — they rank 114th in pass defense.
In addition to giving up over 200 rushing yards to South Carolina recently, to give one recent example of the success that both running backs and quarterbacks have against them, they allow quarterbacks to thrive through the air.
King, for Georgia Tech, is an efficient and productive passer who has thrown eleven touchdowns to one interception. He is also more of a runner than someone like Iamaleava.
While Georgia Tech doesn't have the star power at running back or wide receiver that Tennessee does, Vanderbilt's games against teams like South Carolina and Georgia State, who put up 28 and 36 points against the Commodores, respectively, show that such star power is not going to be necessary in this matchup.
At running back for Georgia Tech, Jamal Haynes is averaging 5.3 YPC this season and will do a great job of complementing his dual-threat quarterback.
Takeaway
Both quarterbacks will provide highlight reels in this matchup.
With both teams reaching 30 points in what will be a thriller, the "over" will hit with ease.
Best Bet: Over 51.5 at -110 with BetOnline
Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Missouri Tigers
Monday, December 30, 2024 at 2:30 p.m. ET at Nissan Stadium
Iowa's Key Absence
Iowa will struggle to score in this game because running Kaleb Johnson will not play in this game.
Johnson was the star and the centerpiece of Iowa's offense.
His importance to the success of his team's offense is evident in the influence that his lack of productivity had on Iowa's scoring output.
When he failed to reach 50 rushing yards — as he did against Nebraska and UCLA — then Iowa failed to exceed 17 points.
The Hawkeyes scored seven points against Ohio State when Johnson was only productive very late in the game.
Brady Cook vs. Iowa's Declined Defense
Iowa is not going to cover the short spread in this game, because its offense lacks sufficient firepower and because its defense can't be counted on.
The Hawkeyes might seem to be able to hold Missouri to a low point total when you see the low scores to which they held opponents in their last regular season games.
But they benefitted from facing inefficient, turnover-prone quarterbacks who do not compare with Missouri's Brady Cook.
Even while facing soft challenges on offense, their cornerbacks have struggled. They have allowed a lot more big plays than they did last year. Alarmingly, for example, they conceded 32 points to Michigan State's 126th-ranked scoring offense.
Cook is trying to get drafted. He is efficient and has thrown nine touchdowns to two interceptions.
His leading wide receiver Theo Wease Jr. is playing whereas Iowa's top cornerback Jermari Harris will miss this game.
Takeaway
Iowa lacks the firepower to keep pace with Missouri.
The Hawkeyes will fail to reach 20 points, whereas the Tigers will reach 30 points with their starting quarterback and leading wide receiver set to play against a declined defense.
Best Bet: Missouri -3 at -105 with BetOnline
Oklahoma Sooners vs. Navy Midshipmen
Friday, December 27, 2024 at Amon G. Carter Stadium
Oklahoma's Inferior Motivation
A vital angle for bowl game betting is team motivation.
The odds do not directly reflect the motivation level of competing teams. As a result, betting value in the underdog of a given bowl game will be perceptible when the favored team is expected to lack motivation.
Oklahoma head coach Brent Venables enters this game 0-2 in bowl games.
We saw, last year, what his Sooners are like in a bowl game against a lower-profile team.
They lost by two touchdowns to Arizona.
Oklahoma is a high-profile football program. The Sooners will not be motivated to play in this game, which is a postseason game but not a College Football Playoff game and which comes against a low-profile, service academy team.
Navy, because of its characteristically physical, run-focused approach as part of its option-heavy offense, requires a lot of motivation from its opponent.
Whereas OU will lack this motivation, Navy is going to be excited to face a high-profile team.
Oklahoma's Offensive Deficiencies
Even if Oklahoma were motivated for this game, it is favored by too many points given the deficiencies of its offense.
When considering whether to bet on the favorite, especially when that team is favored by more than a touchdown, you obviously want to have confidence in its ability to score with ease.
But the Sooners bring the 110th-ranked scoring offense into this matchup.
They have suffered this season with the play of their quarterbacks.
Jackson Arnold was Oklahoma's quarterback for the majority of the season.
Sooners fans have complained vociferously about his struggles with decision-making and accuracy.
And yet he was the best quarterback on the team. While he was benched, he also returned to the starting role because the team lacks competent alternatives.
One of those incompetent alternatives will be Michael Hawkins Jr., who has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns.
He will start in this game while Arnold will transfer to Auburn.
Plus, Oklahoma's top two pass-catchers are set to transfer and are accordingly missing from the team's depth chart.
Takeaway
In order to contain Navy's offense, a defense requires physicality, toughness, and other forms of discipline. Oklahoma will lack this discipline.
The Sooners also lack weapons on offense. Navy won't need to score a lot of points in order to cover the spread, but the Midshipmen won't have trouble scoring in this matchup.
Best Bet: Navy +8 at -110 with BetOnline
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs. Vanderbilt Commodores
Friday, December 27, 2024 at 3:30 p.m. ET at Protective Stadium
The Headline
This game inspires viewer enthusiasm because of the strong and exciting play of each team's dual-threat quarterback.
Both Georgia Tech's Haynes King and Vanderbilt's Diego Pavia make a lot of things happen with their arm and with their legs.
King and Pavia will duel and contribute to the "over."
Outlook for Georgia Tech's Defense
The Yellow Jackets' worst defensive performances this season did not unequivocally come in their games against the best quarterbacks that they faced.
Instead of allowing the most points to Cam Ward and Miami, they allowed 34 points to North Carolina, 29 points to NC State, and 31 points to Notre Dame.
In those games, North Carolina's Jacolby Criswell ran for 73 yards on 5.6 YPC and two touchdowns. NC State's CJ Bailey was his team's leading rusher with 83 yards on 9.2 YPC and three touchdowns. Notre Dame's Riley Leonard was almost his team's leading rusher with 51 yards on 5.1 YPC and two touchdowns.
Evidently, mobile quarterbacks thrive against Georgia Tech and help their respective offense score a lot of points when they face the Yellow Jackets.
Outlook for Vanderbilt's Defense
Vanderbilt has likewise shown vulnerability to opposing mobile quarterbacks, such as when Tennessee's quarterback Nico Iamaleava attained his third-highest rushing total of the year in what was his only really solid road performance this season.
The Commodores are especially weak against the pass — they rank 114th in pass defense.
In addition to giving up over 200 rushing yards to South Carolina recently, to give one recent example of the success that both running backs and quarterbacks have against them, they allow quarterbacks to thrive through the air.
King, for Georgia Tech, is an efficient and productive passer who has thrown eleven touchdowns to one interception. He is also more of a runner than someone like Iamaleava.
While Georgia Tech doesn't have the star power at running back or wide receiver that Tennessee does, Vanderbilt's games against teams like South Carolina and Georgia State, who put up 28 and 36 points against the Commodores, respectively, show that such star power is not going to be necessary in this matchup.
At running back for Georgia Tech, Jamal Haynes is averaging 5.3 YPC this season and will do a great job of complementing his dual-threat quarterback.
Takeaway
Both quarterbacks will provide highlight reels in this matchup.
With both teams reaching 30 points in what will be a thriller, the "over" will hit with ease.
Best Bet: Over 51.5 at -110 with BetOnline
Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Missouri Tigers
Monday, December 30, 2024 at 2:30 p.m. ET at Nissan Stadium
Iowa's Key Absence
Iowa will struggle to score in this game because running Kaleb Johnson will not play in this game.
Johnson was the star and the centerpiece of Iowa's offense.
His importance to the success of his team's offense is evident in the influence that his lack of productivity had on Iowa's scoring output.
When he failed to reach 50 rushing yards — as he did against Nebraska and UCLA — then Iowa failed to exceed 17 points.
The Hawkeyes scored seven points against Ohio State when Johnson was only productive very late in the game.
Brady Cook vs. Iowa's Declined Defense
Iowa is not going to cover the short spread in this game, because its offense lacks sufficient firepower and because its defense can't be counted on.
The Hawkeyes might seem to be able to hold Missouri to a low point total when you see the low scores to which they held opponents in their last regular season games.
But they benefitted from facing inefficient, turnover-prone quarterbacks who do not compare with Missouri's Brady Cook.
Even while facing soft challenges on offense, their cornerbacks have struggled. They have allowed a lot more big plays than they did last year. Alarmingly, for example, they conceded 32 points to Michigan State's 126th-ranked scoring offense.
Cook is trying to get drafted. He is efficient and has thrown nine touchdowns to two interceptions.
His leading wide receiver Theo Wease Jr. is playing whereas Iowa's top cornerback Jermari Harris will miss this game.
Takeaway
Iowa lacks the firepower to keep pace with Missouri.
The Hawkeyes will fail to reach 20 points, whereas the Tigers will reach 30 points with their starting quarterback and leading wide receiver set to play against a declined defense.
Best Bet: Missouri -3 at -105 with BetOnline
