Dec 31 NBA

SF_capper

CTG addict
Plays:
Philadelphia -3- 3.15 units to win 2.8636 w
1st H Philly -2 -105- 1.025 to win .9762 w
Orlando -6- 1.05 units to win .9545 w
Denver -3- 2.1 to win 1.909 w
Houston -8- 2.1 to win 1.909 l
1st H Houston -4.5 -115- 3.22 to win 2.8003 w
Oklahoma City Thunder ML +110- .95 to win 1.045 w
so far today:
6-1
+8.4486



ytd:
10-5
-1.1092

-rant:wow thats ugly. losing Sac yesterday by 1 pt really hurts. I could've had 1.5 when it opened, but I waited on injury information, and dammit it jumped. either way, I bet -3 thinking its just pick the winner- :hang:. If the Clips wouldve fouled at the end with couple ticks left down 2 and I knocked down the FTs, I'd be 11-4 +5ish units grrr.

fade the clippers: Well my fade the CLippers train continues here. Nice to see the starters log heavy minutes, Baron's back is hurting, and yes this team still has no inside scoring presence (besides the legendary paul davis)

why sixers will try: This is the sixers only shot to get a W on this roadie. having lost twice already, and play at dallas and at SA upcoming. They know it, all their newspaper writers know it, and the coaching staff knows it. They can't afford a 9 game losing streak which is what they'll have if they lose this one very likely. Only winnable game for 2 weeks and you know they'll try to get it down.

scheduling: Clippers on a b2b 3/4. It was home to dallas, up to Sac, back down to LA tonight, and likely off to phoenix 2m, to go back home the day after, to head to texas the day after that.

Matchups: Baron and Miller are both PGs that like to abuse weaker PGs. Neither will really have that edge here. Eric gordon seems to found a little hot streak, but green is a decent defender and EG off 38+ minute night. Iguodala vs thornton- seems AI found his stride at SF again and itll be tough for any1 to stop him. I have a hunch the clips will move Al to PF where he can match up with Thad, but I don't know who that leaves at the 3 (fred jones?) Paul davis vs any1 in the league- have to go with big man here. after the fucker went 18 pts, 10-10 from the line on me- I'll give him his props. Camby/Dalembert- hopefully dalembert has the length to keep camby off the Oboards. bench- shortened philly bench way ahead of shortened clipper bench thanx to lu williams. Rebounding should have a midmatch here, although I don't like camby there grabbin everything. helps to have camby off 39 minutes

negatives: this is the only shot for the clips to get a W in a long while: Phoenix, detroit, dallas, SA, New Orleans, Phoenix, atlanta is their upcoming schedule. so similiar to philly in that if they dont win this one, they're in for hell. However, philly had this game circled as really their only realistic shot, while Clips may be a bit down from losing today. The end of the 4th quarter they weren't able to do anything offensively: "the injury-plagued Clippers were even more inept down the stretch, failing to score in the last 3:03 while losing their fourth straight game."

also, if you're a "value player", this is shit value. philly as a 3 pt road fave should be a fade automatically, but eh, love the spot too much.

Overall, I see a close game til the 4th Q, where I see Philly running away with it with the Clips tired legs, so would not advise 1st H play
 
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waiting for indicators of when to play Houston and Houston 1st H

things set up nicely for this one

Why houston will try hard: Houston off embarassing ass loss to Washington, altho it was likely off the hangover from the utah W. Last home game before a 5 game mostly eastern road trip. Newspapers show the players and adelman calling the 1st H vs wash (which I bet against- woot) their worst half of ball- I think they'll try to right the ship this 1st H.

Why Milwaukee may not care as much: Milwaukee came to this short little texas 2 trip hoping to steal one- they got their wish. Huge win for them over SA, although the SA game will have taken a lot out of them- both emotionally and physically. If they're down early, like I think they will be, I can see them mailing it in early to get home, happy with a little 1-1 texas two-trip. Skiles may even rest them early: what I read regarding their tough schedule: "We're trying to strategically get days of rest in there knowing that throughout the whole month of January, it really doesn't let up," said Skiles. "We have a back-to-back every weekend in the month. We're doing some in and outs and 20 games in 33 days. That's a tough schedule. It's just something we have to keep an eye on and keep putting in strategically some days of rest."

Matchups: Houston huge edge: Redd and jefferson will be watched by the two best one on one defenders in the league in artest and battier. Houston will be able to dominate teams that depend on their 2/3 guards to score which is exactly is what milwaukee is. Bogut will struggle with Yao on him. Yao is pissed off from his 4-15 shooting night and said he's dissapointed, so will look for this game to redeem himself. No b2b, so don't need to worry about Tmac. ALston/Brooks is a great 1/2 to negate a not 100% ridnour/sessions.

Schedule: alreadfy mentioned houston's last home game before road trip and will look to get the W. Milwaukee on a b2b and will be content going home 1-1 on the trip. Did not mention that Milwaukee starters played 45 apiece, and have many games coming up they can easily win

Line view: I'm amazed at the lines Milwaukee is getting. Overvalued to detroit, and I feel 8 is too few here. don't like to lay big numbers, but Houston is the better team that will be more motivated for the W. I'll lay it, just need to think of when. Obviously want the best line, not sure if I should wait it out and go to sleep, or play a unit on -8.5 now before I sleep, and see wassup when I wake up
 
other games thoughts:

Denver @ Toronto
wow thats a lot of flying there. Oakland to Toronto, and Atlanta to Toronto. wow. Maybe denver off a loss with less, altho still a lot, of flight time. ALso, I was amazed when I saw the reports of O'neal missing the majority of the warrior game because of the flu. LOL, Jermaine O'Neal did not leave the game because of the flu- he was playing decently, banged knees with someone, and limped off the court- to not return again. He missed because of his surgically repaired knee getting hit- I doubt the flu did it. that said I'd expect him to miss, but thats just speculation on my part


Jersey @ detroit
man I'm sick of fading detroit. Got killed twice with big wagers in a row. I partly blame myself for wrongly rating them, but at the same time, I still think when Rip comes back this team will struggle. they've been doing well with a more traditional lineup with amir at PF. when rip comes back, plays the 3 moving Tay to the 4, I think it really hurts their defense and rebounding. Doubt STuckey can contain Carter, and man it never hurts taking Jersey on the road- fuckin jokes. Maybe they really want that brooklyn gym to construct. lean Jersey, but may lay off to avoid fading detroit again

GS @ OKC
lean GS, but won't play it. dont trust GS winning 2 in a row, okc with revnge but eh.
 
added Orlando -6

Why Orlando wants it: Orlando off a tough loss where no one really played too well. I'd imagine they'd want to get back on the winning track with a W here

Why Chicago may not try as hard: Chicago off a W, and have only won b2b games twice this yr- so 2-11 SU off a W. A typical trend for young teams as they enjoy the W a bit too much. Also, maybe a lookahead to Cleveland

Matchups- huge for Orlando- Chicago struggles against teams with size. No one on that squad can guard a big man. Aaron Gray? Noah? ok Dwight should have a field day. with no deng and no gooden, this is an entirely guard oriented team that'll depend on the 3- "live by the 3- you'll die by the 3" Chicago shot 11-24 from 3 last game which is why they won. I don't see it continuing. If Gooden is in, he can't abuse Shard, and cant keep up with him. If its tyrus, then Shard has a huge advantage. Turk owns whoever will try. Bogans/Pietrus are decent defenders for the Hughes/Gordon combo, so hopefully they'll limit them. Jameer is steppin up bigtime, and off a bad game may have the dge over drose.

schedule: chicago bad from the road trip, come home, and gotta fly out to cleveland 2m.

bad line at -6, but considering the injuries for chicago and the spot, I'll play it.
Like Orlando
 
Good Luck SF.....Thought I read something a week ago about how bad the Bulls are on B2B.
 
Bulls are 5-4 su and ats b-b this year and 3-1 su and ats at home. They suck after an upset win. Have to leave in a few minutes on a short trip. Bee back in 2 days. GL
 
Thanks guys
tuck-good call. didn't wake up on time to see it, but we got it cash
kook-I'm looking at it right now so far this is what I got:

Pity Houston's beat writers. The Rockets' injury report is an hour-to-hour headache. Small forward Shane Battier will not return for at least the next six matches and Tracy McGrady is taking the Shaquille O'Neal proactive approach to his health. He said he'll sit out one of any back-to-back sets the Rockets play.
T-Mac will play tonight and so will teammate Ron Artest.

so looks like no battier, but artest and mcgrady in. no battier is a lot bigger than it seems, as that leaves tmac defending redd/jefferson
 
Good stuff bro ..like that Philly logic and wonder if LAC is "down" after losing that game @ Sac ...may add Philly ..GL
 
WOW what bitch

look at the spreads feeling ok, see Houston -10, Denver -1.5, Houston 1st H -4.5 -110

wait about 10 minutes looking at stuff and new lines: Denver -3?! and Houston 1st H -4.5 -115

Denver -3- 2.1 to win 1.909
Houston -8- 2.1 to win 1.909
1st H Houston -4.5 -115- 2.15 to win 1.8696
 
im having a ahard time thinking whether I like Houston 1st H better or FG -8 more. 2 units on each seems ok, but Im leanin to adding 1 more but cant choose which one. I really think Houston will improve their play starting early and come out gunning, but at the same time I think in the 2nd H the b2b will come to haunt milwaukee and they may just give way in the 4th if it gets out of hand. bleh

also nice in denver to see Nene in and Oneal out.

man all my 2 units, I wamnt to upgrade... restraint...
 
nice got the houston 1st H in despite HORRIBLE outside shooting. hopefully it improves in the 2nd H

fadin the homers here

Oklahoma City Thunder ML +110- .95 to win 1.045
 
i just think GS gonna look past this game and past this team. probably shouldve gone 1st H, but its ok as I expect OKC to grab an early lead then turn into a tighter game with OKC winning at the end
 
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