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Dec 26th NBA

SportsNut

Breaking it down briefly
Stunk it up in the NFL but hit Heat and Under yesterday...

Memphis @ Wash

1) Wiz were -2 in memphis and lost 95 -80 when they were really struggling but now they are playing some real good ball. On the flip Mem has improved now that Gasol is back and shaping into form. Arenas was 1 for 12 with 3 pts which doesnt seem possible. Have a feeling a guy like Arenas is well aware of that performance. Weird game Wix get called for 29 fouls send Grizz to the line 36 times and they hit 30.

2) Basically after defeating the Suns you would think Wash short term could be overvalued. Being that Mem is improving and they are 2-14 away it would seem that 7.5 is probably a fair # here...So dont see much value in a side. However with Wash the Over is always worth a look. The Wiz have scored 106 ++ the past 10 games and only 2 home games ATL & NJ did they not break 110 previous to this stretch. Both teams shot alot of three and FTs at high pct..they last 5 starts are skewed with both having 2 OT games. While Mem has a defensive reputation the past 4 games they have allowed 100+ and 98 and 97 the first two Gasol games. Seems like they are scarificng a little defense to gain some offense...Going back last 9 they have allowed at least 100 in 5 and 96 +in the others but this is Wash....

Over 201.5 -114 (XLarge)(203 would be fine)

Leans :

Pistons -6.5 : The Nets just got smoked in MILW catching 4.5 making me feel this is fair. Only knock is DET just win in NJ so revenge?? Kristic lost should be felt here and I would expect a lower scoring game but the total seems tight.

Bulls +1 -105 / Und 189.5 -105 : This time Chi has revenge and despite there record on the road have actually played decent ball. I think expectations early on where just ahead ofhow they were playing...lots of small numbers and road chalk for them...I am thinking this line is tight so depending on movement it should create value. chi defense away has been below avg and Minny scores alot more at home then away...

Bucks +9.5 -106 / Ov 201.5 +100 : Well Milw is hot and SA has failed to cash past 3 at home. Basically its a real high number for a SA hoem game but look at the stats its really about avg...SA offense really picked I up since Ginobili returned...and Bucks Offense is on fire of late.....

Char @ Dallas: Why get involved with Charlotte at this time? Look ahead for Dallas? Maybe team under Char and team over Dallas??

Bos @ Den: You couldnt have two worse teams on 3 + days rest then these two...curious to see a total in the 212 range we could have an Under play....I cant lay points with Den now...

Portland @ Pho : Line seems soft to me since Wash was +10.5. Now Blazers are playing well of late and sound defensively but Suns trashed them already in Port. Look ahead for PHO but this is still a bad team IMO..WIth improved defense the 208 looks real low..might play Ov 208 -120 before I go to sleep..

NO @ SEA: Hornets return to Seattle after losing as 3.5 pt dogs by 20. Sea has swapped Ray Allen for Rashard Lewis recently. BAsically I like how NO has traveled of late in Orl and Miami. Lets face it SA was a bad spot for the yooungsters...Its seems like NO is playing uptempo so an over loosk attractive.

LAC @ Utah : My how things have changed after consecutive 20 pt defetas this season LAC moves from -1 in Utah to +8!! I really dont trust LAC but I wonder did the comeback wake then up. The beat Hou for one erason and that was Ming's injury....LAC hasnt played much defense especiallyon the road and Utah has topped 105 in both meetings. Just wonder if they look ahead to the game @ SA?? They see LAC limping in and own 2 blowout wins already do they take LAC lightily? Would have to lean Ov 198 ...also Utah home aftre long , grueling trip..

Philly @ GS : The Warriors also return home after a long eastern swing where Philly ahs won a pair now. Looks like GS is banged up Ellis , Roberson , Murphy , Pietrus are doubtful..Thinking 7 is alot for a Philly team rounding into form and playing a shorthanded Warior squad...
 
Good thoughts here...tough card though....early I like NO...
 
Just my take on Utah....I don't see them looking past the Clipps. Do I see them blowing them out? Not really, but after a lackluster road trip Sloan will have them ready to play. I'd guess they take care of business and then get their asses handed to them by the Spurs.
 
Thanks Farm , Tim , Austin ( I agree crap card early)and DJ ....BOL!


I dont mean they will over look them in the sense they could lose more have complecancy set in for a team they have crushed twice already. Tough trip , holidays , your playing a team you have killed with atough game ondeck...are they focused enough? Since the line moved it took alot of the value away from Utah in this spot. The flip is who are the Clippers at this point...just a game I am staying away from a side ...

Seems alot of the big Road dogs are getting pounded after the NFL showing this week maybe there is some correlation? GL JPicks
 
Sort of my updated leans :

Philly +6 -106 , ML +207 , Under 102 +107 1st H or Und 206 -107

Hornets +6.5 -110 (played) , ML +220 , Over 188.5 -104

Under 209 +101 Denver

Over 209 -110 Portland (Played)

Bucks +9.5 -109 , ML +409 , Over 201 -110 Spurs (Played)

Bulls +1 -105 (played)

Rockets +8 -105 & ML +345 {TMac is questionable and I would guess he plays}{played}
 
Just don't see why anyone likes the Bulls +1 on the road? I like Minny tonight...
 
majority of the money is on the bulls right now too I guess the public likes the revenge angle but the bulls are horrible on the road I think there 4-10
 
Wow they sure are giving the rockets a ton of points, you would think the rockets would get a little more respect than that, I might have to make that a play also, the Pacers are a good team but in no way have they prooved to be able to dominate a better team.
 
Simply put, the Bulls' are the better team and have been playing better basketball. I would hope they are motivated as they have performed poorly on the road lately and hold a 3-7 mark against the Western Conference. I see this as a no play. But a lean? Bulls!
 
Austintx_05 said:
yeah but no TMAC or Yao

Your jumping the gun with TMac...

he has praticed four straight days with no setbacks and is a gametime decision...I think he goes tonite...thats why I made the play now..
 
Um yeah, no Ming sure does take alot of value out of the play, McGrady questionable sure does make it a scary play. The 8 points sure does look good the Rockets do have some players who are capable of stepping up some, something they didn't have in the past years, play should hold some value, but not worth alot to me. If McGrady is playing I don't think the Pacers should be able to blow out the Rockets, unless if things just go completely wrong.
 
Austintx_05 said:
Just don't see why anyone likes the Bulls +1 on the road? I like Minny tonight...

The Bulls seem to be sabotaged by the yearly circus trip. They played 7 straight away and not just any 7 ...Dal , Hou , SA , LAL , Den , then the easy part Philly and NYK(which by then were probbaly dead)..in about 12 days...most teams would be lucky to grab 2 or even 3 wins in that trip...so 1-6 stinks but 1 and 4 pt losses make you think it wasnt as bad as the overall record indicates. Take their first 3 road games smoke Miami in the Opener but then have a back to back in Orlando and are favored and lose(undervalued to overvalued in a day)...they played in Clev another tough venue(+4).....since the Circus trip only 3 away in No , ATL and NYK...all lower tier teams but they went 2-1 but the hard part is they are always chalk....they have struggled on the road but the have no room for error when they are favored or catching 3 or less...

Where as minny is the exact opposite they have been undervalued and often small dogs(or small favs) at home. Chi cause of their great play at home goes on the road with inflated spreads...this is one of the first times they dont have a fat number.....and Minny has played about 2 good halves of basketball past 5 games...1st H in SA and 2nd H in Indiana.....Eventually Chi will start playing better on the road when the level of competition decreases.....they had won 3 straight away before losing in NY who sort of had tha rallying point after the fight & Chi probably overlooked them having defeated them farly easily twice already this year....

first meeting the Bulls had won 7 straight and possibly could have taken Minny lightily cause of how well they were playing at the time...I am sure CHI knows who broke there streak and they won 5 straight after that and are 13-2 SU past 15. The Western Conference factor is misused cause they were 2-2 at home vs the West including a 1 pt loss vs Sac which they fell apart in the 4th quarter


I dont think the line is off or anything (seems fair looking at everything)and will say that the public is on Chi but the vig went from -105 to -111 so its not such the public darling people think it is otherwise they would have been favored by now....I simply think Minny after not landing AI has some issues and are not playing good ball like when they had won 3 straight before winning in Chi...they were just down 10 at Half to Indy and who knows what happened to Indy in the 2nd H but its not like Minny exactly ran away with that game either....

Thats my stance......
 
Well some may claim that BUlls are the better team, but in sports betting I don' bet like a fan. I bet with the odds. The fact of the matter is, Chicago only getting 1 point on the road is a bad bet.
 
Plays

Memphis + 8 -115 (Medium) ML +282 (Value):

I simply decided to fade all teams off extended road trips who came home on Christmas Eve and Christmas . Washington is also coming off a huge Upset of Pho to boot. I am approaching this as a flat spot for the home team and noting more.

Rockets +8 -105 (XLarge ) ML +345 (Value)

Well hopefully people understand why I decided it was such a great spot to grab Houston early. The game went off the board and came back at -4 which means it appears TMac is a go. So I will now middle some of the spread play and see how it goes. Probably keep half open and half middled. I have to think 4 days of pratice have helped shake some of the rust off and its been less then 2 weeks to begin with...Wait just heard J. O'Neal is Questionable with the FLU .

Bulls +1 -105 (Large)

This to me is one of the rare times Chi travels and is not overvalued. Minny is a very medicore team who is not playing its best ball anymore like it was in the 1st meeting. So very hard IMO for the inferior team to defeat the better time twice ina fairly short span. Bulls 13-2 last 15 including 3-1 away while Minny just snapped a 4 game losing streak. In 13 games away Chi has been chalk 6 times against a tough schedule they have only one 1 occassion been a dog of more then 5 points (8 in SA).

Bucks +9.5 -107 (Large) ML +450(Value)
Over 201 -110 (Large)

All season long the Spurs have struggled at home laying big prices. They have IMO turned into what teh Pistons were last year. Aformer defensive mided squad who opened the offense up , hence the over. Bucks are playing well and riding the train. Like the fact Maurice Willaims played well vs SA last year as did the Bucks.

LA Clippers +7.5 -111 ( Medium) ML +270 (Value)

See my Grizzlies explanation...long trip returning home and tough game on deck vs team they owned so far. Still looking at the total O 198.

Over 209 -110 Portland (Large)

Somewhat concerned by the turnaround Portland has made especially with regards to defensive effort. However they had no success in even stopping them up in Portland earlier. If this happened to get to 211 /212 I might hedge out of some...

Under 209 -110 Denver (Large)

So many missing starts this time around : Pierce , Camby , Carmelo , Miller , JR Smith that was about 125 pts in the 1st meeting so your asking AI in anew situation with less help and some other players to step up and make the difference....

Hornets +6.5 -110 (XLarge ) ML +220 (Value)
Over 188.5 -105 (Medium) holding out...

Basically I think NO was playing well but just ran into n angry SA team. They have shown they can play on the road and SEA didnt exactly coast versus a dead Tor team last outing. Didnt think this should be higher then 5....an over cause look at the uptempo game NO is playing...

Philly +6 -106 (Large) ML +270 (Value)
Under 206 -110 (Medium)

Same as Grizz and LAC , fading a team at home off a long trip. Difference here was I liked this play. They are 5 key injuries Green for Philly and Murphy (out awhile now) , Pietrus (busted nose -Q) , Ellis and ROberson Out...really takes away alot of the GS depth and there unsung hero Monta Ellis. Love Phillys depth and defense of late. Webber looked good last game and they have a real solid core...
 
Austintx_05 said:
Well some may claim that BUlls are the better team, but in sports betting I don' bet like a fan. I bet with the odds. The fact of the matter is, Chicago only getting 1 point on the road is a bad bet.

I dont think its muc of a debate who the better team is. That has nothing to do with liking or disliking Chi here though. Do you bet with the odds or value? I hope you dont think because Chi went 4-9 or whatever that indicates something for the future? Chi laying chalk on teh road is a bad bet anytime they are getting points away is rare. this team was catching only 3 or 4 points in Denver , LAL , Dallas what was Minny versus those teams...

your making way to much of the road record IMO...its about beating the line not the odds...thats just my take I fully agree that taking Chi is risky but I cant see anyone making a great case why Minny is so clearly the better route? If someone can I am all ears.....whats a better bet Chi +1 @ Minny or -5.5 @ MSG? We disagree here but I dont understand anything your saying for being Pro Minny here. Sure Chi has sucked but who has played a tougher road schedule and worse been overvalued an expected to win....
 
I'm extremely suspicious of that Wash total.

By taking season venue avg's, venue avg's last 5, and avg's from last 5 overall for each team then dividing, I get 209.0. Even leaving aside last 5 overall (considering their arguably skewering nature from wash's side of things), I still get 205.7 where this opened much lower.

So I decided to look up something, and this is what I found.

Last 3 games for Wash before Xmas day last season

Away - Over
Away - Over
Away - Over (Win at PHX, last game before Xmas)

Home 26th (total set at 201.0) - 185 pts - Under vs West (LAK)
Home 28th (total set at 212.0) - 203 pts - Under vs West (PHX)

Now, this season...

Away - Over
Away - Over
Away - Over (Win at PHX, last game before Xmas)

Home 26th (total opens 201.5) vs West


The similarities are striking, and it wasnt like Wash wasnt scoring highly prior to xmas last season (211, 226 & 223 totals). After Xmas their scoring collapsed, managing an Under at home with PHX
 
BC... you know what the line "closed" at last year for the game on the 26th? Not sure if you keep track of that info, but I was curious. Obviously the books have some concern about the line as they've been moving it like crazy. 207 now.

That's a good find by you. Hope in means nothing though.
 
Actually strong angle for under in Phoenix. What it boils down to is when Suns shooting percentage drops 2 games in a row last 20 times the next game has been 5-15 under. GL with you on a bunch.
 
BetCrimes1984 said:
JP, no I dont. That 201.0 was its opener vs the Lakers.

I did a bit of digging and a couple of things stood out to me.

Line closed at 202.5 last year so people were on the over similar to this year.

Wizards/Suns total last year on the 23rd was 209. (at least closed there)
this year on the 22nd was 228. (also closing line)

So the Wizards are playing a higher level of offense this year than last and also have one more game off between the Phoenix game and their next home contest.

Memphis is surely a name that keeps many Over bettors with their hands out of their wallets. I think Vegas may have thought they would have kept some action on the Under, but with the line moving I believe they miscalculated.

That's an incredible find with those similarities. I also still say you have about a dozen elves working for you keeping stats in your basement. :)
 
Good stuff , no great stuff guys. I am just trying to finish up the card...before I comment...

I tend to agree with JPicks though that Memphis reputation helped keep the opener lower. However now at 207 and running a god 5 points I am seriously concerned. I simply hate big line moves....
 
Here is the breakdown :

Memphis +8 -115 (Medium) ML +282 (Value)
Over 201.5 -114 Wash (XL) middled Und 208 -110 (Medium)

Props : Miller Und 17.5 +111 (Small) & Over 19.5 -106 Jamison (Small)

Rockets +8 -105 (XL) ML +345 (Value) middle Pacers -3.5 -108 (Small)

Bulls +1 -105 (Large) will middle 1 Unit Wolves ML +107ish(Small)

Over 201 -110 Bucks(Large)
Bucks +9.5 -107 (Large) ML +450 (Value)

Clippers +7.5 -111 (Medium) ML +270 (Value)

Over 209 -110 Suns (Medium) reduced from Large play.

Under 209 -110 Nuggets (Large) now only (Medium)

Hornets +6.5 -110 (XLarge) ML +220 (Value)
Over 188.5 -105 (Medium) but could be more.

Philly +6 -106 (Large) ML +270 (Value)
Under 206 -110 Philly (Medium)

Props Det: Over 21 -114 Rip (Small) & Over 18.5 -134 Billups (Small)

Team Totals :
Over 91 -110 Hornets (Medium)
Under 107 -107 Denver (Small)
Under 106 -112 GS (Small)

!st Q :
ML +183 Mem (Small)L -1.00
ML +124 hou (Small) W +1.24

Added:

Under 187 -110 NJ (Medium)
 
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tuck321 said:
Actually strong angle for under in Phoenix. What it boils down to is when Suns shooting percentage drops 2 games in a row last 20 times the next game has been 5-15 under. GL with you on a bunch.

Thanks tuck. I was weary and cut my play in half as I trust your research. The reason I stayed partially on it is two fold. The 1st meting were Port was defenseless vs them and the fact they were on a big UNDER run before the Wash game hoping they reversed it that day...BOL
 
Changed my mind after seeing Wash stomp Memphis about fading these teams off road trips so I am off of the Clippers....NO PLAY on LAC!
 
3gamblers said:
WAS is damn hot....hope mem can catch them up on the 2Q!

I would take down 15 to 18 to start the 4th Q at this point.....Gilbert Arenas is my hero!!!

Should have taken Over 30 for him and why did I bother middling any of the over....HAd Rasheed over 10 pts Prop in my sights but bailed foolishly!
 
had OVER WAS 204, but went to MEM +7.5 also...damnnnnnnnnn
thinking of late games here...Philly maybe?
 
3gamblers said:
had OVER WAS 204, but went to MEM +7.5 also...damnnnnnnnnn
thinking of late games here...Philly maybe?


I seem to be in the minority here liking Philly so maybe I am missing something. Just think they have to rely heavily on Richardson , Dunleavy and Barnes with the injuries they are battling...like my chances with Webber , Miller , Iguadola , Dalembert , Korver and the rest...

Did really like NO at +6 or better .....
 
well that will make the 2 of us sporty, Philly+6 and NO+5.5, I think MEM is a done deal right now...
 
3gamblers said:
well that will make the 2 of us sporty, Philly+6 and NO+5.5, I think MEM is a done deal right now...

Its sad I had no intention of betting that game cause I didnt like Wiz off the upset and travel . I didnt like Arenas off a 3 pt performance last meeting either..or the fact Wiz lost.....

Done is an understatement! Shit happens...
 
Second Half

Under 103 +101 Washington (Small)

This game is a blowout largely lead by Jamison and Arenas . Now how much 2nd H time will they actually see? I dont see Memphis making a run cause they cut it to to 18-20 and Wash pushed it right back up so they are deflated walking into the locker room.

Also Hedge:

Pacers -1.5 -110 (Small)

Just have alot invested and never like to see a team make even the slightest of runs going into half..
 
1st Quarter

LAC +158 ML (Small)
Over 49 -116 Dallas (Small)

Guess I rather gamble that LA can take 1 Q versus hang the entire game...figure effort should be there at least out of the gate
 
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Here is the breakdown :

Memphis +8 -115 (Medium) L -2.30 ML +282 (Value) -0.25
Over 201.5 -114 Wash (XL) Win +5.00 middled Und 208 -110 (Medium) L-2.20

Props : (2-0 +2.11)
Miller Und 17.5 +111 (Small) Win +1.11 & Over 19.5 -106 Jamison (Small) Win +1.00

Rockets +8 -105 (XL) Win +5.00 ML +345 (Value)L-0.50 middle Pacers -3.5 -108 (Small)W +1.00

Bulls +1 -105 (Large) Loss -4.20 will middle 1 Unit Wolves ML +107(Small)WIn +1.07

Over 201 -110 Bucks(Large) Win +4.00
Bucks +9.5 -107 (Large) Win +4.00 ML +450 (Value) Win +2.25

Clippers +7.5 -111 (Medium) ML +270 (Value) NO PLAY

Over 209 -110 Suns (Small) reduced from Large play.

Under 209 -110 Nuggets (Large) now only (Medium)

Hornets +6.5 -110 (XLarge) ML +220 (Value)
Over 188.5 -105 (Medium)

Philly +6 -106 (Large) ML +270 (Value)
Under 206 -110 Philly (Medium)

Props Det: Over 21 -114 Rip (Small) PUSH & Over 18.5 -134 Billups (Small) L -1.34

Team Totals :
Over 91 -110 Hornets (Medium)
Under 107 -107 Denver (Small)
Under 106 -112 GS (Small)

1st Q :
ML +183 Mem (Small)L -1.00
ML +124 hou (Small) W +1.24

Added:

Under 187 -110 NJ (Medium) Win +2.00

1st Quarters
Under 47 -110 1st Quarter (Medium) Minny / Chicago Win +2.00(scramble to 46!)
Bucks ML +194 1st Q(Small) Loss -1.00 (trailed by 2)
LAC +158 ML (Small) Win +1.68
Over 49 -116 Dallas (Small) WIn +1.00

Second Half :

Under 103 +101 Washington (Small) Win +1.01
Pacers -1.5 -110 (Small) Win +1.00

<!-- / message --><!-- / message --><!-- edit note -->
 
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Second half:

Pistons ML -140 (Small) Loss -1.4
Over 96 -120 (SMall) Win +1.00 this is a hedge on my U187..

Think NJ made a little run and it was thwarted dont think they have many in them..
 
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At the 9:56mark of the 4tn quarter TMac misses both FT's down 7!!!!!!!uhhh

This will ultimately be the play that ended Houston hopes and probably cost me the difference bewteen +7 and -3.25...(plus 1/2 Unit on the Ml @ +3 something)
 
2nd half :

Bulls -4 -108 (Medium)Win +2.00
Spurs -3 -113 (Small) Hedge ...L-1.13 the MIL ML more then made up for it!
 
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