Should You Bet On D'Andre Swift To Thrive In Detroit?
D’Andre Swift: Over or Under 625 Rushing Yards
Doubt Number One: Playing Time
One reason why skeptics may choose the „under“ is that the Lions already have a starting running back in Kerryon Johnson.
Kerryon’s biggest problem is arguably staying on the field. He’s missed 14 games in his first two seasons combined.
Injuries have followed him throughout his entire playing career — even in high school.
Production-wise, Kerryon lacks sufficient effectivity in two respects. Last year, he was inefficient, managing only 3.6 YPC.
Moreover, Kerryon misses big-play ability. Last season, only five percent of his runs netted 15 or more yards.
96 percent of running backs who attempted at least 20 percent of their team’s runs finished with a higher percentage.
Doubt Number Two: Offensive Line
While available run-blocking metrics show Detroit’s run-blocking to be approximately middle-of-the-road, the Lions will improve in this respect.
The main reason for Detroit’s poor run-blocking was that they ranked 30th in running to the right side.
Right tackle Rick Wagner was one of the league’s worst run-blockers. But he’s gone now. And the upgrade is considerable.
Former Eagle Halapoulivaati Vaitai will make an immediate impact as Wagner’s replacement.
Detroit wanted Vaitai specifically for his run-blocking ability as PFF graded him very highly in this respect.
The Lions will probably continue to rotate at guard while they already own two of the top run-blockers per PFF at left tackle and center.
By all accounts, Detroit improved in run-blocking towards the end of the season even as defenses keyed in on the run with quarterback Matt Stafford injured.
Why Detroit Explicitly Needs Swift
If Lion games had ended after the third quarter, the team would be 7-6-1.
But the Lions, who finished 3-12-1, kept blowing leads.
On the surface, the passing defense carries a lot of blame. It got killed especially in the later portions of games.
One big way to help the defense is to give it more rest. And that’s where Swift comes in.
Detroit needs Swift to prolong drives in order to secure and extend leads late in games.
With Stafford healthy, Detroit had, statistically speaking, one of the league’s better offenses.
He already learned to thrive under new offensive coordinator Derrell Bevell as he was on pace for approximately 5,000 passing yards.
With Stafford — his back, specifically — healed and Detroit’s pass-catching crew in tact, the Lions’ pass attack will distract defenses from paying more attention to their ground game.
What Swift Brings To Detroit: Scouting Report
Swift had an extremely successful career at Georgia that led many experts to rank him as the top running back in the draft.
For starters, unlike Kerryon Johnson, Detroit can count on Swift to stay on the field.
Despite playing in the notoriously physical SEC, Swift did not miss a single game in his three-year career.
He averaged over six YPC in each season.
One trait is his elusiveness. It makes him hard to bring down, such that he does not lose yards behind the line of scrimmage and he extends gains on the ground.
Go to 59 seconds in the following video:
An Auburn defender meets Swift behind the line of scrimmage.
However, Swift spots this defender and is able to spin away from him.
Auburn’s defender does not even touch him and Swift turns a would-be loss into a first down.
Now go to 2:28 in the same video above.
You see how lethal Swift is in open space because his movement is extremely fluid.
In this play, he plants his right leg in order to move the Auburn defender in the same direction.
He then shifts to his original running path in order to blow past the same Auburn defender.
This elusiveness and shiftiness will allow him to accumulate the big sort of chunk plays that Kerryon did not achieve last season.
Now go to 40 seconds in the same video.
Swift begins going in one direction. Note how Swift’s initial route attracts Auburn's #35.
Then, Swift notices a crease on the right side of the line and then utilizes his shiftiness to change direction.
Because he had started in one direction before quickly shifting to another, Swift takes that Auburn defender out of the play.
At 1:38 in the following video, you see that Swift also contains a power component to his running style.
He is also difficult to bring down because of his strength, particularly in his lower body. This trait makes him more effective between the tackles.
Wrap-Up
If Swift isn’t the clear-cut number one back because Kerryon continues justifying his injury-prone label, then he will be by merit.
Swift will make an instant impact because he is extremely elusive, quick, shifty, and strong.
Supported by a balanced offense with Stafford who will demand defenses’ attention, Detroit has someone who will help satisfy a repeated need to protect late leads.
Best Bet: D’Andre Swift Over 625 Rushing Yards (-120) with BetOnline
D’Andre Swift: Over or Under 625 Rushing Yards
Doubt Number One: Playing Time
One reason why skeptics may choose the „under“ is that the Lions already have a starting running back in Kerryon Johnson.
Kerryon’s biggest problem is arguably staying on the field. He’s missed 14 games in his first two seasons combined.
Injuries have followed him throughout his entire playing career — even in high school.
Production-wise, Kerryon lacks sufficient effectivity in two respects. Last year, he was inefficient, managing only 3.6 YPC.
Moreover, Kerryon misses big-play ability. Last season, only five percent of his runs netted 15 or more yards.
96 percent of running backs who attempted at least 20 percent of their team’s runs finished with a higher percentage.
Doubt Number Two: Offensive Line
While available run-blocking metrics show Detroit’s run-blocking to be approximately middle-of-the-road, the Lions will improve in this respect.
The main reason for Detroit’s poor run-blocking was that they ranked 30th in running to the right side.
Right tackle Rick Wagner was one of the league’s worst run-blockers. But he’s gone now. And the upgrade is considerable.
Former Eagle Halapoulivaati Vaitai will make an immediate impact as Wagner’s replacement.
Detroit wanted Vaitai specifically for his run-blocking ability as PFF graded him very highly in this respect.
The Lions will probably continue to rotate at guard while they already own two of the top run-blockers per PFF at left tackle and center.
By all accounts, Detroit improved in run-blocking towards the end of the season even as defenses keyed in on the run with quarterback Matt Stafford injured.
Why Detroit Explicitly Needs Swift
If Lion games had ended after the third quarter, the team would be 7-6-1.
But the Lions, who finished 3-12-1, kept blowing leads.
On the surface, the passing defense carries a lot of blame. It got killed especially in the later portions of games.
One big way to help the defense is to give it more rest. And that’s where Swift comes in.
Detroit needs Swift to prolong drives in order to secure and extend leads late in games.
With Stafford healthy, Detroit had, statistically speaking, one of the league’s better offenses.
He already learned to thrive under new offensive coordinator Derrell Bevell as he was on pace for approximately 5,000 passing yards.
With Stafford — his back, specifically — healed and Detroit’s pass-catching crew in tact, the Lions’ pass attack will distract defenses from paying more attention to their ground game.
What Swift Brings To Detroit: Scouting Report
Swift had an extremely successful career at Georgia that led many experts to rank him as the top running back in the draft.
For starters, unlike Kerryon Johnson, Detroit can count on Swift to stay on the field.
Despite playing in the notoriously physical SEC, Swift did not miss a single game in his three-year career.
He averaged over six YPC in each season.
One trait is his elusiveness. It makes him hard to bring down, such that he does not lose yards behind the line of scrimmage and he extends gains on the ground.
Go to 59 seconds in the following video:
An Auburn defender meets Swift behind the line of scrimmage.
However, Swift spots this defender and is able to spin away from him.
Auburn’s defender does not even touch him and Swift turns a would-be loss into a first down.
Now go to 2:28 in the same video above.
You see how lethal Swift is in open space because his movement is extremely fluid.
In this play, he plants his right leg in order to move the Auburn defender in the same direction.
He then shifts to his original running path in order to blow past the same Auburn defender.
This elusiveness and shiftiness will allow him to accumulate the big sort of chunk plays that Kerryon did not achieve last season.
Now go to 40 seconds in the same video.
Swift begins going in one direction. Note how Swift’s initial route attracts Auburn's #35.
Then, Swift notices a crease on the right side of the line and then utilizes his shiftiness to change direction.
Because he had started in one direction before quickly shifting to another, Swift takes that Auburn defender out of the play.
At 1:38 in the following video, you see that Swift also contains a power component to his running style.
He is also difficult to bring down because of his strength, particularly in his lower body. This trait makes him more effective between the tackles.
Wrap-Up
If Swift isn’t the clear-cut number one back because Kerryon continues justifying his injury-prone label, then he will be by merit.
Swift will make an instant impact because he is extremely elusive, quick, shifty, and strong.
Supported by a balanced offense with Stafford who will demand defenses’ attention, Detroit has someone who will help satisfy a repeated need to protect late leads.
Best Bet: D’Andre Swift Over 625 Rushing Yards (-120) with BetOnline
