Dallas +10.5 or Kansas City +4.5? Possible Hedge?

[CryptoWhale]

Aight need a little advice from the family here. Over the weekend, played some teasers, did very well, but I have one pending that has an "open" spot to fill that is leftover from a six team 13.5 point teaser.

Here's the situation. Let's say I've got $5k at risk to win $6500 of a six teamer. As of right now, five are winners but I need to fill that last and final sixth spot to cash or lose the $5k.

As of now, thinking either Dallas at +10.5 or Kansas City +4.5. I hate the fact Dallas is on the road, Dak scares me when it comes to pressure, not to mention you've got Brady on the other side who owns Dallas. Now, I can pass on Dallas and take KC at home next weekend against the Jags at +4.5. However, will KC come out flat after the two weeks off? On paper you'd think KC should and would cover fairly easy here at home against Jacksonville. Or do I pass on these two games and look elsewhere such as the other matchups?

Lastly, say I take Dallas +10.5 tonight for the final spot. Wise to hedge Tampa +2.5 for $5k? Best case and absolute best case would be Tampa wins by 3-10 points which means the Dallas +10.5 covers and I get extremely lucky hitting both. Worse case Dallas wins by 3+ or Tampa wins by 11+ and one of the wagers wins and the other loses.

Looking for your thoughts and advice on the best possible move here. Thank you all for the input.

Also here are the other lines available at the moment.

 

[twinkie13]

I’m not this best at this but I’d be pretty comfortable with Dallas +10.5

KC would be the most popular answer I’d guess

 

[B.A.R.]

Of those ..

KC
Over in buffalo
Over in Philly
Dallas

 

[CryptoWhale]

I’m not this best at this but I’d be pretty comfortable with Dallas +10.5

Of those ..

KC
Over in buffalo
Over in Philly
Dallas

Thank you both. Would I be wise to hedge regardless of where I go with this last wager?

 

[B.A.R.]

Thank you both. Would I be wise to hedge regardless of where I go with this last wager?

Ride or collide.

 

[CryptoWhale]

Ride or collide.

You degen! Lol.

Really just looking to maximize the most here.

 

[jedi ninja]

Cin +18 or NYG +20.5 seem like really good ones too if you decide to pass on Dallas.

 

[CryptoWhale]

Cin +18 or NYG +20.5 seem like really good ones too if you decide to pass on Dallas.

I mean the way the wildcard weekend went, with the exception of the 49'ers/Hawks game, anything on the board would seem safe as all the games came down to one possession.

 

[KJ]

For me, start with who you think can win the game. I think KC will win, don't think Dallas will but those are just opinions of course

Wouldn't do it any other way if you think both lose, gotta scrub the number and keep it simple imo

Roughly 88% of teams who win the game cover in NFL

 

[cubsker]

No one can tell you if you should hedge or not. It's -EV to hedge, so hedging is merely what risk is acceptable to you. There may be EG considerations, but if you're betting 6 team teasers, then that's probably not all that relevant.

 

[KJ]

No one can tell you if you should hedge or not. It's -EV to hedge, so hedging is merely what risk is acceptable to you. There may be EG considerations, but if you're betting 6 team teasers, then that's probably not all that relevant.

Older I get, the more it rings true

Hedging means you really didn't like your wager in the first place

 

[KJ]

There are very good people here who do the trading market, find them and feed off them

I'm not one, I like this as an escape but there are several guys here who treat it (successfully) like an options market

 

[CryptoWhale]

There are very good people here who do the trading market, find them and feed off them

I'm not one, I like this as an escape but there are several guys here who treat it (successfully) like an options market

Haha where do you think I was coming from on this idea. I day trade crypto and FX.

 

[Zeke]

Yeah those 13 pt teasers on sides or overs were gold this weekend. Buffalo had me sweating a bit though.