Daily Preseason Topic

S

Schrute

Assistant __ ___ Regional Mod
Gonna try to create a discussion topic a few times a week just to create some stir around here. No need to wait til mid august to turn this into the best CFB forum on the web

So topic #1...how do you use the turnover margin from the previous year to make your current PRs or do you even take that into account?

For me it's something I am tracking and taking notes on. Particularly I like to account for fumbles lost as a percentage of overall fumbles bc that's more luck based. However I'm not really sure if it's something I could or should use to adjust PRs. Even though it's mostly luck and there is likely to be regression toward the mean I don't necessarily know that it should affect the PRs. I have given some thought to adjusting by no more than half a point based on previous years turnover luck and then considering another mid season adjustment but it seems like overkill
 
It's so hard to predict turnovers and who's gonna do what they did last year. Some guys get better, some stay the same and some get worse. That's hard to cap. I thought rule #1 is you can't cap turnovers? But I'd imagine the most genuine thing to do is predict exactly what happened last year to happen again and adjust after the season starts when it comes to turnovers. Doesn't matter whether someone new comes in or it's the same players. There is no right answer I don't think.
 
Carolina Guy said:
It's so hard to predict turnovers and who's gonna do what they did last year. Some guys get better, some stay the same and some get worse. That's hard to cap. I thought rule #1 is you can't cap turnovers? But I'd imagine the most genuine thing to do is predict exactly what happened last year to happen again and adjust after the season starts when it comes to turnovers. Doesn't matter whether someone new comes in or it's the same players. There is no right answer I don't think.
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Agree with this 100%. Turnovers are nothing more than luck really. Some teams are better at created the "luck" to get the turnovers, but at the end of the day it's really just luck when it comes to them.
 
God doesn't use turnovers for or against to help rank teams in PR, just players talent or lack of.
 
Ok so preseason daily topic one seems to have met a solid consensus. Would still be interested to hear what Silky,VK, Gar, Bemiss, pstone and other PR guys do
 
Schrute said:
Ok so preseason daily topic one seems to have met a solid consensus. Would still be interested to hear what Silky,VK, Gar, Bemiss, pstone and other PR guys do
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Point linde in tha direction of this topic also jim

:shake:
 
Yeah man. Heading to different beach next week but next week all work. Finished with B10 this AM
 
I use turnovers from previous year only to examine how lucky or inefficient/efficient a team was. I think it's a high luck stat that skill plays only a small part in. So I'll look 1st at outliers like a team that passes a ton but has a very low int %. Then I examine what type off passing off this is. I'd expect low INTs from a team that uses a bunch of screens & hitches, but if I see a team that uses pro style passing tree & dropbacks with a low int % that would tend to indicate efficiency. I go deeper than this but long story short I'll use previous year turnovers as a way of describing some efficiency things a lil further, but not to make any concrete determination.


I am always very interested in the passes defensed stat and as a % of total pass att. A defense that gets it's hands on a ton of passes is of some import to me.
 
Thanks for the post Silky. Exactly the kind of stuff I was hoping to see. I record the information but not exactly sure if or how I can use it as a capping advantage
 
Turnovers and turnover margin can only be used in a general way to suggest how a certain team will perform in that area over a given length of time (just long enough to regress to whatever their mean is. We expect Alabama to be better in the turnover department over time than Easter Michigan.) They can't be used in individual game matchup scenarios, which is the primary type of handicapping analysis I do.

As an aside Dwight, I'm strongly considering not doing PRs this year. I've tried them the last two years and had little luck, just not my thing. I think my ability to understand college football through art is as strong or stronger than my ability to understand it through science. Lot of effort with little reward. I'm not naive enough to think that 2 years is enough time to fine tune or perfect the approach. Maybe I've already cracked the code and the sample of two year's results is just too small to tell, but at the end of the day I don't think its my thing.
 
I think it's hard to quantify either way, but I would say fumbles are much more random than interceptions. I don't necessarily quantify it so to speak, but I take it into consideration when looking at a head to head matchup. An offense prone to interceptions is probably indicative of poor QB play, a defense with a lot of interceptions is probably indicative of a good pass rush and/or secondary.

You obviously have to be mindful of small sample sizes and it can change from year to year, but I've found it useful from say midseason on within an individual season.
 
The way I do my PR's, I don't necessarily account for them directly.

I think the value in looking at turnovers is determining:

1. Were high or low turnover rates and/or margin caused by something?
-Offensive style/defensive style
-Bad QB play/good qb play
-Bad team that falls behind a lot
-Good team that played from the lead a lot
-Strength of schedule
-or luck?

For example .... say an average running based team plays a difficult schedule or a matchup difficult schedule ( VS good rush defenses ) and they fall behind in games a lot and are forced to throw ( which they can't do ) .... that team commits turnovers at a rate higher than they otherwise would with all other factors being equal. Fast forward a year and the same team plays a schedule of weak run defenses .... they will play from the lead more and fall far behind less ... and not be forced to try to be something they are not. That will get reflected in turnovers.

I like to look at key turnovers vs meaningless ones if I have the time to look at such things too. A team turns the ball over 6 times in a game they lose 45-3 but were +4 the rest of the season ... their turnover margin was -2 but they were actually an ok team as far as turnovers go. Or ... a team turned the ball over at key moments or received gifts from opponents at key moments in a game, this is often a MAJOR factor in a few select teams who would otherwise have won/lost two or three games they did the opposite in.

Turnovers are part of the game, some teams are better at creating them or managing them on offense ... but trying to cap it for a single game isn't worth much of your time.

I just sort of throw it into the good or bad luck category for a given teams previous season to help me properly understand how good they actually were the year before. Hard to do without getting into the minutia of what situations each turnover actually occurred in.
 
A lot of your bad bets that win or good bets that lose will rest on whether that fumble of an odd shaped ball bounces out of bounds or up into the hands of a defender in stride...
 
TheGarfather said:
Turnovers and turnover margin can only be used in a general way to suggest how a certain team will perform in that area over a given length of time (just long enough to regress to whatever their mean is. We expect Alabama to be better in the turnover department over time than Easter Michigan.) They can't be used in individual game matchup scenarios, which is the primary type of handicapping analysis I do.

As an aside Dwight, I'm strongly considering not doing PRs this year. I've tried them the last two years and had little luck, just not my thing. I think my ability to understand college football through art is as strong or stronger than my ability to understand it through science. Lot of effort with little reward. I'm not naive enough to think that 2 years is enough time to fine tune or perfect the approach. Maybe I've already cracked the code and the sample of two year's results is just too small to tell, but at the end of the day I don't think its my thing.
Click to expand...

This is worth it's on thread and I couldn't agree more with you.
 
Yeah, I'm totally with Gar & CG on the bolded point above. I certainly look at numbers but don't go through the painstaking number crunching that some of the guys here do. I just don't have the time, and while I do this as an investment and take it seriously, it isn't my livelihood. I pick my spots and look for opportunities. The numbers guys do the same thing but I'd be awfully frustrated if I put in the time it takes to do all of this and ended up around the Mendoza line at the end of the year.
 
M.O.T said:
I think it's hard to quantify either way, but I would say fumbles are much more random than interceptions. I don't necessarily quantify it so to speak, but I take it into consideration when looking at a head to head matchup. An offense prone to interceptions is probably indicative of poor QB play, a defense with a lot of interceptions is probably indicative of a good pass rush and/or secondary.

You obviously have to be mindful of small sample sizes and it can change from year to year, but I've found it useful from say midseason on within an individual season.
Click to expand...
Good to see you MOT

Yea, aome teams are prone to INTs(QBs I should say) and some teams just find the ball

I think you can use TOs in certain games/situations...not PRs tho
 
tru said:
Bar, anyone else any idea when BM should be droppin official week 1 lines?
Click to expand...

I don't have the exact dates tracked anymopre but 7-8 years ago it was in the late-20's of July, I believe. Then they all got cute and waited till just before say Aug 10th one year and other years have been first couple days of August.
 
scdoggy said:
Yeah, I'm totally with Gar & CG on the bolded point above. I certainly look at numbers but don't go through the painstaking number crunching that some of the guys here do. I just don't have the time, and while I do this as an investment and take it seriously, it isn't my livelihood. I pick my spots and look for opportunities. The numbers guys do the same thing but I'd be awfully frustrated if I put in the time it takes to do all of this and ended up around the Mendoza line at the end of the year.
Click to expand...


U say say ur don't have tha time but if u break it down it's not that bad. 30mins each day once Steele drops, a month later ur where were basically at now. That's basically 14 total hours, so basically over an hour for each conference. Well preped, and ahead of tha game.
 
B.A.R. said:
I don't have the exact dates tracked anymopre but 7-8 years ago it was in the late-20's of July, I believe. Then they all got cute and waited till just before say Aug 10th one year and other years have been first couple days of August.
Click to expand...

:shake:
 
tru said:
U say say ur don't have tha time but if u break it down it's not that bad. 30mins each day once Steele drops, a month later ur where were basically at now. That's basically 14 total hours, so basically over an hour for each conference. Well preped, and ahead of tha game.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I probably do put in the time - I should have said I'm not as mathematical as some when it comes to capping. I've spent over 14 hours on this shit already. I'd rather look for spots/matchups than grind away at the numbers the way some do.
 
scdoggy said:
Yeah, I probably do put in the time - I should have said I'm not as mathematical as some when it comes to capping. I've spent over 14 hours on this shit already. I'd rather look for spots/matchups than grind away at the numbers the way some do.
Click to expand...


:shake:

GL this season honky
 
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