daily lines...

redbearde

Pretty much a regular
Gentlemen, since lines tend to come out the afternoon the day before the games, I suggest we get our discussions going then......we could discuss before the lines get out of hand.

All in favor, please post a bit earlier for ignorant lumps like me...

:smiley_acbe:
 
Lines from Bet365


Was +5.5 -105 Over 145.5 -110
Ny -5.5 -115 Under 145.5 -110


Sea -3.0 -105 Over 156.5 -110
Chi +3.0 -115 Under 156.5 -110


Moneylines are OTB


I am already on the New York Liberty -5.5 -115
 
<TABLE cellSpacing=2 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Tue 6/12</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>601</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Washington Mystics</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> +5.5 1.935 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> 3.150 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> OVER 145 1.901 <TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> 04:00 PM</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>602</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>New York Liberty <TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> -5.5 1.971 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> 1.426 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> UNDER 145 2.01 </TD><TR bgColor=#d0d0d0><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> Tue 6/12</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>603</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Seattle Storm</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> -2.5 1.909 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> 1.725 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> OVER 156.5 1.952 <TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#d0d0d0><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> 05:00 PM</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>604</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Chicago Sky <TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> +2.5 2.000 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> 2.280 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> UNDER 156.5 1.952 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Lines from Pinny
 
looking at the lines, I got nothing... I had figured -5.5 for New York (actual is -5.5) and -2 for Seattle (actual is -2.5)... looking at momentum and emotion factors, this is still tough...

you figure New York coming home after a brutal loss to Indiana would be a plus for them, but right now I still can't get a good read from Washington. They kept up with Indiana last game and only lost by 5.. not to mention they played hard til the end of the game outscoring Indiana in the 3rd and 4th quarters. They were way behind and had alot of catching up to do, but still.. they had their shots at the end.... and for some reason, I still can't get into this NY bandwagon. They definitely have talent with Erin, Cathrine, and Ashley.. hell even Jessica is looking good for a rook. But I still have those bad vibes for this one. Alana Beard has got her shit together right now... probably won't mess with it.


as for the other game, I'd like to say Seattle is coming in with a hot hand and at 3-3, they need to keep their momentum going.. but Chicago has a helluva thing going as well. They seem to be in a good rhythm and are also looking to get over the .500 mark. I'm thinking I may go with Seattle here only because of their experience in these types of games with meaning. They usually slack off when they shouldn't but also turn it up when they should. Chicago will be rough at home though. Candice is looking fucking solid right now. But LJ should still be LJ... lots to look at here.
 
but if you really want to talk about things early, I been looking at the stuff for Wednesday... I figure my lines early so I don't get any influence from the actual lines... For example.. I had Sacramento -8 @ Houston, so the -5.5 made me jump early on them before it moved... but these are just my figures, so don't jump all over me... lol...

I have to wait for the Seattle and Washington games today before I can calculate their Wednesday games, but as for the other two games:

I calculated Connecticut at -5 at minny..... Connecticut (as red mentioned) has looked improved and I'm starting to see it a bit more... they are talented as hell, but they have not been playing like it til lately.. and they gave Detroit a helluva run. All of their 5 starters are capable of double digits, so I don't see them having difficulties covering this kind of spread @ Minnesota. The Lynx have been too dependent on Augustus... when she's off.. they're off. Still gotta wait for the line, but Connecticut looks interesting here... as long as the spread is not too much higher.

As for the Houston @ LA game... well, I have that at -10 for the Sparks at home, but I may need to adjust a point or two now that Holdsclaw has retired. Thing is, Cooper is a helluva coach and at home, even without Holdsclaw, they should be able to hold their ground.
 
Maybe after the Lynx big win at Phoenix the connecticut line won't be too outrageous. I dunno about Augustus, but the Lynx sure have been dependent on sucking ass instead of playing ball. Turnovers, missed jumpers...no defense......except for Phoenix, they've been terrible in every game.

and if you've been having trouble getting a handle on the Mystics, let me help.

They traded away Chastity Melvin.
Their terrible coach resigned.

They're 0-7 against:

Connecticut (home)
Sacramento (home)
New York (away)
Detroit (away)
Chicago (home)
Indiana (home and away)

That's ATS, too, with the 1 exception of hanging with Indiana.

Mystics are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
Mystics are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
Mystics are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss.
Mystics are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. Eastern Conference.
Mystics are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
Mystics are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 3 or more days rest.

Mystics are looking extremely raggedy.

:shake:
 
Maybe after the Lynx big win at Phoenix the connecticut line won't be too outrageous.

I don't think that big win @ Phoenix convinced anybody... the line was still +13 @ LA and +10.5 @ Seattle following that win...

and of the three, Seattle is where they got the most respect line-wise and they blew it. Seattle held Augustus to a season low 13 pts... and that did it for that team. Connecticut played like crap for an entire half against Houston and for an entire first quarter against Detroit. If they come out firing right out of the gate, then it should be goodnight Minnesota.... otherwise, it could be another doozy.
 
I happily look for another doozy. ...unless of course the line is appropriately extreme...in which case I won't be playing tomorrow...
 
so if the line comes out for Connecticut between -4 and -6... who would you play?... if you play it.

I think you were right saying Connecticut is looking good... The talent is picking up and they're getting comfortable again... I don't know about top 3, but I can see them being top 5 by the end of the season if, and only if, they get themselves in gear... which seems possible right now...

on another note... the Sky team is pissing me off.. I'm looking at todays' games still... and damn... I just don't know when they are going to show. I wanna take Seattle tonight, but after tonights' game on the road @ Chicago, they play Indiana on the road tomorrow night... so I hope they are not focussing on that game just yet.
 
I would play the Sun at -4 without a doubt. At -6 I'll have to think about it, and in no event would I play the Lynx.

;)
 
I calculated Connecticut at -5 at minny.....

As for the Houston @ LA game... well, I have that at -10 for the Sparks at home,


looks like both are right on with no value for me...

Not including adjustments (if needed) for tonights games, I currently have Seattle +4 (came out +5.5) @ Indiana...


and

Phoenix -2.5 (came out -3.5) @ Washington..

If washington wins, I'll leave things as is... if they lose (depending how bad), then I can see the extra point (-3.5).
 
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