Record: 1-2
Really tough loss to swallow yesterday. I can't believe that Matheny brought in Cecil to face those difficult Cubs lefties. Why not Siegrist? Why trust a pitcher who had such a horrible season last season in a tight game against the Champs? I think putting in Cecil was a bad decision by Matheny and I really think that we should have been able to hold onto that 4-1 lead. So I am in the negative here with my write-ups, but we move on...
The Reds bring on another rookie to the mound today to fill in the gap in their rotation opened by injuries. The Phillies knocked their last rookie pitcher out after three innings and I don't except Garrett to be of any higher quality. Nor do I expect the Reds' bullpen to be able to bring the same game-saving performance as against Philly in back to back games.
Garrett, however, one could argue, presents some match-up difficulties for the Cards. The Cards, last season, were one of the worst teams against left-handed pitchers, and Garrett is a southpaw. Last year, their OPS was .777 vs righties, but just .742 against lefties. This was the fourth-largest differential in the MLB. They have, however, taken steps to improve that. One player who really struggled against lefties was Matt Holliday. His OPS vs righties was .333 but vs lefties it was .297. He is happily gone from the team. Dexter Fowler is new to the team and last year he hit .293 BA vs lefties versus just .270 against righties. So the Cards have improved their lineup in preparation for southpaws. They are also not likely to see much quality in Garrett, as his manager decided to put even Davis before him in the rotation. So I think the Cards can hit Garrett.
Leake, however, raises some concerns of his own. He struggled in games against his former team, but he also had a down-year overall, along with most of the rest of the rotation, with a 4.69 ERA. Leake performed relatively well last year against lefties but righties hit him for over .300 and they're a large part of the Reds' success against him. In the past 5 years, the best ERA that Leake has mustered on opening day was 4.50. He is not one to start strong, regardless of the opposing lineup. Given the Reds' familiarity with Leake and Leake's struggles against right-handed batters and on opening day, I think the Reds can continue to enjoy success against him.
I hope to not see the worst parts of the Cards' bullpen today--Cecil, who just got shelled by the Cubs, and Broxton, who had played in the game before. And against an overworked Reds bullpen I hope that the Cardinals can actually enjoy an advantage in the latter part of the game. I think the Reds' disadvantage in the bullpen and in their rotation--especially if their starter gets knocked out of the game early again-- combined with the Cards' superior offensive talent (I don't think the Reds have much outside of Votto in the way of consistent hitting)--should suffice to overwhelm the Reds at home.
The Cardinals' price is expensive. I think that they finally get their offense going against a pitcher who is making his major league debut. I don't think it'll take the experienced Cards batters long to figure out Garrett. Laying such juice to back the Cards is imo not smart, not when Leake is on the mound. While Leake did have a relatively promising spring training, with a 3.81 ERA, his ERA in Spring Training was even better in 2016--and we know how that season ended up for him.
I am backing the Cardinals to win by -1.5. It may not make sense to do this given my unwillingness to lay the juice for them to win. But we are talking about value. I have the Cardinals ML in a parlay and I have them -1.5. I think with these plays we get the most bang for our buck.
Really tough loss to swallow yesterday. I can't believe that Matheny brought in Cecil to face those difficult Cubs lefties. Why not Siegrist? Why trust a pitcher who had such a horrible season last season in a tight game against the Champs? I think putting in Cecil was a bad decision by Matheny and I really think that we should have been able to hold onto that 4-1 lead. So I am in the negative here with my write-ups, but we move on...
The Reds bring on another rookie to the mound today to fill in the gap in their rotation opened by injuries. The Phillies knocked their last rookie pitcher out after three innings and I don't except Garrett to be of any higher quality. Nor do I expect the Reds' bullpen to be able to bring the same game-saving performance as against Philly in back to back games.
Garrett, however, one could argue, presents some match-up difficulties for the Cards. The Cards, last season, were one of the worst teams against left-handed pitchers, and Garrett is a southpaw. Last year, their OPS was .777 vs righties, but just .742 against lefties. This was the fourth-largest differential in the MLB. They have, however, taken steps to improve that. One player who really struggled against lefties was Matt Holliday. His OPS vs righties was .333 but vs lefties it was .297. He is happily gone from the team. Dexter Fowler is new to the team and last year he hit .293 BA vs lefties versus just .270 against righties. So the Cards have improved their lineup in preparation for southpaws. They are also not likely to see much quality in Garrett, as his manager decided to put even Davis before him in the rotation. So I think the Cards can hit Garrett.
Leake, however, raises some concerns of his own. He struggled in games against his former team, but he also had a down-year overall, along with most of the rest of the rotation, with a 4.69 ERA. Leake performed relatively well last year against lefties but righties hit him for over .300 and they're a large part of the Reds' success against him. In the past 5 years, the best ERA that Leake has mustered on opening day was 4.50. He is not one to start strong, regardless of the opposing lineup. Given the Reds' familiarity with Leake and Leake's struggles against right-handed batters and on opening day, I think the Reds can continue to enjoy success against him.
I hope to not see the worst parts of the Cards' bullpen today--Cecil, who just got shelled by the Cubs, and Broxton, who had played in the game before. And against an overworked Reds bullpen I hope that the Cardinals can actually enjoy an advantage in the latter part of the game. I think the Reds' disadvantage in the bullpen and in their rotation--especially if their starter gets knocked out of the game early again-- combined with the Cards' superior offensive talent (I don't think the Reds have much outside of Votto in the way of consistent hitting)--should suffice to overwhelm the Reds at home.
The Cardinals' price is expensive. I think that they finally get their offense going against a pitcher who is making his major league debut. I don't think it'll take the experienced Cards batters long to figure out Garrett. Laying such juice to back the Cards is imo not smart, not when Leake is on the mound. While Leake did have a relatively promising spring training, with a 3.81 ERA, his ERA in Spring Training was even better in 2016--and we know how that season ended up for him.
I am backing the Cardinals to win by -1.5. It may not make sense to do this given my unwillingness to lay the juice for them to win. But we are talking about value. I have the Cardinals ML in a parlay and I have them -1.5. I think with these plays we get the most bang for our buck.
