I promise I won't pick my boys everyday to win lol I just try to find value not necessarily who will win so I'm very biased towards underdogs
Record: 1-0
Although it may seem scary to go against Arrieta and back Wainwright after last season, I think the Cardinals present the best value tonight. Arrieta certainly had a solid season last year, finishing with a 3.10 ERA, whereby he did not pick up a loss before the month of June, by the beginning of which his ERA was 1.56. Wainwright had a much more intense struggle in the season and was very inconsistent throughout.
However, I look to back the underdog with upside as a value-play and I think this matchup presents a good opportunity. On Sunday I talked about Piscotty returning to his norm, and developing some consistency in accord with his talent, and not continuing to play like he did in the second half of last season, and he had some strong at bats in his first game back. I like Wainwright to return to his norm. Yes, last year his ERA was a disgusting 4.62. But on his career his ERA is 3.17. One consistency last year was also his strong performance at home, where his ERA was 3.20. Wainwright has also been a good bounce-back pitcher in his career. In 2007 his ERA was 3.70, second-highest in his career, and the following year 3.20, in 2012 it was 3.94 and the next year it was 2.94. His third highest ERA was just 3.20. This is a quality pitcher career-wise and home is the perfect place for him to begin bouncing back.
On the flip-side, despite Arrieta’s dominance throughout last season, he struggled in St. Louis. His road ERA last year was 3.59 compared to 2.62 at home and in his one game at Busch he gave up 4 ER on 5 IP. I think the value lies with Wainwright in this rivalry matchup.
Granted: especially if this game is close in the latter part, the Cardinals’ bullpen has clearly showed itself to be a liability. Matheny did not trust his new reliever Cecil enough to put him in the 8th—either for a tired Martinez or instead of Oh, who should have waited to come in the 9th, when he blew the save. Cecil pitched well under 3.00 in his career from 2013-2015 and I believe he is capable of holding in the 8th, should the same situation arise as on Sunday.
Also, Grichuk batted .300 against Arrieta last year and I expect him to keep a hot bat. He can be the x-factor down the stretch.
The value lies with St. Louis, with a Wainwright with upside against an Arrieta with downside. The value lies with St. Louis, with a Wainwright with upside against an Arrieta with downside. I mentioned in my last write-up how the Cards play up to the Cubs' level, now 10-10 in their last 20 vs the champs. I'll take coin-flip odds for a big underdog. Take the home division dog, again.
Record: 1-0
Although it may seem scary to go against Arrieta and back Wainwright after last season, I think the Cardinals present the best value tonight. Arrieta certainly had a solid season last year, finishing with a 3.10 ERA, whereby he did not pick up a loss before the month of June, by the beginning of which his ERA was 1.56. Wainwright had a much more intense struggle in the season and was very inconsistent throughout.
However, I look to back the underdog with upside as a value-play and I think this matchup presents a good opportunity. On Sunday I talked about Piscotty returning to his norm, and developing some consistency in accord with his talent, and not continuing to play like he did in the second half of last season, and he had some strong at bats in his first game back. I like Wainwright to return to his norm. Yes, last year his ERA was a disgusting 4.62. But on his career his ERA is 3.17. One consistency last year was also his strong performance at home, where his ERA was 3.20. Wainwright has also been a good bounce-back pitcher in his career. In 2007 his ERA was 3.70, second-highest in his career, and the following year 3.20, in 2012 it was 3.94 and the next year it was 2.94. His third highest ERA was just 3.20. This is a quality pitcher career-wise and home is the perfect place for him to begin bouncing back.
On the flip-side, despite Arrieta’s dominance throughout last season, he struggled in St. Louis. His road ERA last year was 3.59 compared to 2.62 at home and in his one game at Busch he gave up 4 ER on 5 IP. I think the value lies with Wainwright in this rivalry matchup.
Granted: especially if this game is close in the latter part, the Cardinals’ bullpen has clearly showed itself to be a liability. Matheny did not trust his new reliever Cecil enough to put him in the 8th—either for a tired Martinez or instead of Oh, who should have waited to come in the 9th, when he blew the save. Cecil pitched well under 3.00 in his career from 2013-2015 and I believe he is capable of holding in the 8th, should the same situation arise as on Sunday.
Also, Grichuk batted .300 against Arrieta last year and I expect him to keep a hot bat. He can be the x-factor down the stretch.
The value lies with St. Louis, with a Wainwright with upside against an Arrieta with downside. The value lies with St. Louis, with a Wainwright with upside against an Arrieta with downside. I mentioned in my last write-up how the Cards play up to the Cubs' level, now 10-10 in their last 20 vs the champs. I'll take coin-flip odds for a big underdog. Take the home division dog, again.
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