Cubs Will Cry for Mama Bear After Facing Reds Thursday
The NL Central-leading Cubs host the Reds on Thursday at 8:05 ET on the MLB Network. Do the Cubs need this more? Yes. Will that matter? No.
Thursday, 8:05 ET (MLB Network)
MLB Pick: Reds RL
One of the worst reasons for placing a bet that I notice is betting on a team that „needs“ to win more. If you were to follow this reasoning with the Cubs, for instance, you’d have lost big because in three series with non-playoff contenders Pittsburgh and San Diego in August, they only managed a split, including two losses when favored by more than -150. Even if a team is more motivated, it can buckle under pressure, the other team can play looser and have more fun, and many other psychological events can transpire that we as bettors (as opposed to mind-readers) cannot possibly predict.
Cincinnati’s Anthony DeSclafani (6-3, 4.12 ERA) has recently been one of bookmakers’ best kept secrets. The Reds won in each of his last four starts—he earned the win in two of them—and they yielded +5.1 units in the process thanks especially to a win at +180 in Washington. DeSclafani is profitable on the road, where he yields +3.9 units. He also yields +5.3 units as an underdog.
DeSclafani shows great form lately, conceding two runs in his last three starts (21.2 innings). His FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) was under 3.05 in each of those starts, although they came against playoff contenders with mostly high slugging rates against his pitches from righties: San Francisco, Arizona, and Washington. During his streak, he’s achieved an 8:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio and yielded in each start a hard contact rate at least 10 percent below his season average.
He relies on a fastball-sinker-slider combo. He relies on each pitch with between 25 and 33 percent frequency. He mixes up his pitches well especially with two strikes, where he can lean on five different pitches with at least 10 percent frequency. His sinker and slider are most effective, which is why he amps up their usage with runners in scoring position. Opponents bat .247 against his sinker and .176 against his slider. His sinker is elusive with its horizontal movement. His slider lacks vertical movement, so that it slides more tightly and doesn’t hang up in the plate so that the batter can track it more easily. Opponents tend to crush his stuff when he leaves it in the middle. But their slugging numbers are infinitesimal against his pitches on the outer parts of the zone, which he’s been nailing so often lately.
The Cubs match up poorly with DeSclafani. They rank 13th in slugging against his three primary pitches from righties. The Cubs are batting .225 against DeSclafani in 80 career at-bats. Anthony Rizzo is 2-for-22 lifetime against him. The Cubs’ RL is 0-4 and ML 1-3 in their last four home openers. All three losses were by at least five runs.
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Chicago’s Cole Hamels (8-9, 4.00 ERA) shows good form, but his recent results are superficial. His last four opponents rank in the bottom half in slugging against lefties.
The lefty Hamels relies on five different pitches with between 14 and 24 percent frequency. In the month before his transition to Chicago, Hamels was getting slammed with double-digit ERA’s on a regular basis. All of his pitches were impacted, so their opposing slugging numbers remain high. Since then, nothing significant has changed about the velocity, movement, or location of his pitches. Only the opponents have changed. He hasn’t faced a team like Oakland, which ranks sixth in slugging against lefties and produced seven runs against him in his final start for Texas.
The Reds rank seventh, one spot behind the A’s, in slugging against lefties. They’re 5-0 so far in August against lefties, scoring at least six runs in each of those wins. Also, like the Tigers who slammed Hamels in July before he could finish an inning, the Reds specialize against lefties, yielding +8 units against them. Watch for Eugenio Suarez, who slugs .702 against lefties. Jose Peraza is slugging .800 in his last seven days.
The NL Central-leading Cubs host the Reds on Thursday at 8:05 ET on the MLB Network. Do the Cubs need this more? Yes. Will that matter? No.
Thursday, 8:05 ET (MLB Network)
MLB Pick: Reds RL
One of the worst reasons for placing a bet that I notice is betting on a team that „needs“ to win more. If you were to follow this reasoning with the Cubs, for instance, you’d have lost big because in three series with non-playoff contenders Pittsburgh and San Diego in August, they only managed a split, including two losses when favored by more than -150. Even if a team is more motivated, it can buckle under pressure, the other team can play looser and have more fun, and many other psychological events can transpire that we as bettors (as opposed to mind-readers) cannot possibly predict.
Cincinnati’s Anthony DeSclafani (6-3, 4.12 ERA) has recently been one of bookmakers’ best kept secrets. The Reds won in each of his last four starts—he earned the win in two of them—and they yielded +5.1 units in the process thanks especially to a win at +180 in Washington. DeSclafani is profitable on the road, where he yields +3.9 units. He also yields +5.3 units as an underdog.
DeSclafani shows great form lately, conceding two runs in his last three starts (21.2 innings). His FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) was under 3.05 in each of those starts, although they came against playoff contenders with mostly high slugging rates against his pitches from righties: San Francisco, Arizona, and Washington. During his streak, he’s achieved an 8:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio and yielded in each start a hard contact rate at least 10 percent below his season average.
He relies on a fastball-sinker-slider combo. He relies on each pitch with between 25 and 33 percent frequency. He mixes up his pitches well especially with two strikes, where he can lean on five different pitches with at least 10 percent frequency. His sinker and slider are most effective, which is why he amps up their usage with runners in scoring position. Opponents bat .247 against his sinker and .176 against his slider. His sinker is elusive with its horizontal movement. His slider lacks vertical movement, so that it slides more tightly and doesn’t hang up in the plate so that the batter can track it more easily. Opponents tend to crush his stuff when he leaves it in the middle. But their slugging numbers are infinitesimal against his pitches on the outer parts of the zone, which he’s been nailing so often lately.
The Cubs match up poorly with DeSclafani. They rank 13th in slugging against his three primary pitches from righties. The Cubs are batting .225 against DeSclafani in 80 career at-bats. Anthony Rizzo is 2-for-22 lifetime against him. The Cubs’ RL is 0-4 and ML 1-3 in their last four home openers. All three losses were by at least five runs.
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Chicago’s Cole Hamels (8-9, 4.00 ERA) shows good form, but his recent results are superficial. His last four opponents rank in the bottom half in slugging against lefties.
The lefty Hamels relies on five different pitches with between 14 and 24 percent frequency. In the month before his transition to Chicago, Hamels was getting slammed with double-digit ERA’s on a regular basis. All of his pitches were impacted, so their opposing slugging numbers remain high. Since then, nothing significant has changed about the velocity, movement, or location of his pitches. Only the opponents have changed. He hasn’t faced a team like Oakland, which ranks sixth in slugging against lefties and produced seven runs against him in his final start for Texas.
The Reds rank seventh, one spot behind the A’s, in slugging against lefties. They’re 5-0 so far in August against lefties, scoring at least six runs in each of those wins. Also, like the Tigers who slammed Hamels in July before he could finish an inning, the Reds specialize against lefties, yielding +8 units against them. Watch for Eugenio Suarez, who slugs .702 against lefties. Jose Peraza is slugging .800 in his last seven days.
