Cubs vs. Pirates: Top MLB Bets
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Tuesday, September 1, 2020 at 7:05 p.m. ET at PNC Park in Pittsburgh
Chad Kuhl’s Approaching Statistical Misfortune
Pittsburgh starter Chad Kuhl (1-1, 2.52 ERA) seems to be pitching much better than he is in reality.
His low ERA masks a 5.45 FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) and 4.98 xFIP (like FIP, but adjusts for league-average ratio of fly balls to home runs).
He has benefitted massively from stranding 100 percent of opposing baserunners thus far. This strand rate is statistically unsustainable.
Likewise, he is yielding a .180 BABIP (batting average of balls in play), which in itself is statistically unsustainable.
His opposing BABIP must seem especially unlikely to continue being so low when you look at how much hard contact he is yielding. Opponents create hard contact with over 40 percent of his pitches.
Chad Kuhl’s Unimpressive Season
Besides striking out fewer batters and walking more of them per nine innings than he did last year, Kuhl also has a recognizable problem with home runs. He has given up a combined total of five in the past four games.
Three of the four teams that hit homers against Kuhl rank outside the top 10 in home runs per game. Chicago, however, ranks eighth in the category.
Part of the reason why Kuhl is so hittable is that he often doesn’t locate his pitches well.
Pitching charts show that a high percentage of his stuff finds the more middle spots of the strike zone.
This poor locational tendency may be exacerbated by an unusual tendency to emphasize his slider also against opposite-handed batters. In finding pitches to emphasize, Kuhl simply doesn’t have a lot to choose from.
Kuhl vs Cubs Batters
Individually, Kuhl performs especially poorly against lefties. He yields a 5.99 FIP when facing them.
This detail is relevant because the Cubs boast multiple redoubtable lefties.
In particular, Jason Heyward and Anthony Rizzo dominate Kuhl.
The former bats .500 and slugs .750 in 16 at-bats. The latter hits .350 and slugs. 850 in 20 at-bats.
Collectively, active Cub batters hit .325 and slug .578 in 83 at-bats against Kuhl.
Jon Lester
Like Kuhl, Jon Lester (2-1, 4.55 ERA) has been getting hit hard. The difference is that Lester’s ERA more accurately reflects how poorly he is truly pitching.
Currently, Lester is yielding hard contact at a 46 percent rate.
Above all, he is struggling with his fastball and curveball. Opponents slug .557 against the former and .857 against the latter.
Both pitches make up a sizable portion — 40 percent — of his arsenal. So many pitches that he throws in a given evening will be lower-quality and superbly hittable.
While almost nine percent of his fastball strikes land right down the middle, it doesn’t really matter for him where he locates his curveball.
Righties see this pitch especially well — they are hitting .500 and slugging 1.000 against it — and they are seeing it more often than left-handed batters.
If you also factor in Lester’s change-up — which is yielding a .261 BA — then over half of his pitches are proving to be very hittable.
Lester vs Pirates Batters
While a couple individual Pirate batters deflate the active team’s overall numbers against Lester, there are several who look very promising tonight.
Jacob Stallings is 2-for-3 (.667) against Lester with a double. He is batting over .380 this season both at home and against lefties.
When facing Lester, Adam Frazier is 6-for-14 (.429) and boasts a .571 slugging rate that equals that of Erik Gonzalez. Kevin Newman is 7-for-18 (.429) with a double and a homer (.611 slugging rate).
As a team, Pittsburgh stands to hit Lester well because it ranks eighth in batting .276 against lefties.
So far this season, over 60 percent of Pirate home games and of Pirate games facing a left-handed starter result in an „over."
Full-Game Bet
With both bullpens ranking in the bottom 10 in ERA — each team’s bullpen is yielding an ERA over 5.00 — the full-game „over“ makes for a strong bet.
The Verdict
Chad Kuhl is overrated right now as he’s benefitted from statistical pieces of fortune.
While his BABIP and strand rates are sure to worsen for him no matter who he plays, the Cubs present a particularly difficult match-up for him.
On the other side, Lester has also been getting hit hard because he doesn’t have many quality pitches to offer right now.
As a lefty, he is especially vulnerable against Pittsburgh’s lineup.
Take advantage of both starters struggling with a first-half wager on the „over.“ But because both teams additionally have awful bullpen play, also invest in a full-game „over“ play.
I recommend devoting a half-unit to the first-five „over“ in addition to your half-unit to the full-game „over."
Best Bet: First-Five „over“ and Full-Game „over“ 9 runs (-105) with 5Dimes
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Tuesday, September 1, 2020 at 7:05 p.m. ET at PNC Park in Pittsburgh
Chad Kuhl’s Approaching Statistical Misfortune
Pittsburgh starter Chad Kuhl (1-1, 2.52 ERA) seems to be pitching much better than he is in reality.
His low ERA masks a 5.45 FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) and 4.98 xFIP (like FIP, but adjusts for league-average ratio of fly balls to home runs).
He has benefitted massively from stranding 100 percent of opposing baserunners thus far. This strand rate is statistically unsustainable.
Likewise, he is yielding a .180 BABIP (batting average of balls in play), which in itself is statistically unsustainable.
His opposing BABIP must seem especially unlikely to continue being so low when you look at how much hard contact he is yielding. Opponents create hard contact with over 40 percent of his pitches.
Chad Kuhl’s Unimpressive Season
Besides striking out fewer batters and walking more of them per nine innings than he did last year, Kuhl also has a recognizable problem with home runs. He has given up a combined total of five in the past four games.
Three of the four teams that hit homers against Kuhl rank outside the top 10 in home runs per game. Chicago, however, ranks eighth in the category.
Part of the reason why Kuhl is so hittable is that he often doesn’t locate his pitches well.
Pitching charts show that a high percentage of his stuff finds the more middle spots of the strike zone.
This poor locational tendency may be exacerbated by an unusual tendency to emphasize his slider also against opposite-handed batters. In finding pitches to emphasize, Kuhl simply doesn’t have a lot to choose from.
Kuhl vs Cubs Batters
Individually, Kuhl performs especially poorly against lefties. He yields a 5.99 FIP when facing them.
This detail is relevant because the Cubs boast multiple redoubtable lefties.
In particular, Jason Heyward and Anthony Rizzo dominate Kuhl.
The former bats .500 and slugs .750 in 16 at-bats. The latter hits .350 and slugs. 850 in 20 at-bats.
Collectively, active Cub batters hit .325 and slug .578 in 83 at-bats against Kuhl.
Jon Lester
Like Kuhl, Jon Lester (2-1, 4.55 ERA) has been getting hit hard. The difference is that Lester’s ERA more accurately reflects how poorly he is truly pitching.
Currently, Lester is yielding hard contact at a 46 percent rate.
Above all, he is struggling with his fastball and curveball. Opponents slug .557 against the former and .857 against the latter.
Both pitches make up a sizable portion — 40 percent — of his arsenal. So many pitches that he throws in a given evening will be lower-quality and superbly hittable.
While almost nine percent of his fastball strikes land right down the middle, it doesn’t really matter for him where he locates his curveball.
Righties see this pitch especially well — they are hitting .500 and slugging 1.000 against it — and they are seeing it more often than left-handed batters.
If you also factor in Lester’s change-up — which is yielding a .261 BA — then over half of his pitches are proving to be very hittable.
Lester vs Pirates Batters
While a couple individual Pirate batters deflate the active team’s overall numbers against Lester, there are several who look very promising tonight.
Jacob Stallings is 2-for-3 (.667) against Lester with a double. He is batting over .380 this season both at home and against lefties.
When facing Lester, Adam Frazier is 6-for-14 (.429) and boasts a .571 slugging rate that equals that of Erik Gonzalez. Kevin Newman is 7-for-18 (.429) with a double and a homer (.611 slugging rate).
As a team, Pittsburgh stands to hit Lester well because it ranks eighth in batting .276 against lefties.
So far this season, over 60 percent of Pirate home games and of Pirate games facing a left-handed starter result in an „over."
Full-Game Bet
With both bullpens ranking in the bottom 10 in ERA — each team’s bullpen is yielding an ERA over 5.00 — the full-game „over“ makes for a strong bet.
The Verdict
Chad Kuhl is overrated right now as he’s benefitted from statistical pieces of fortune.
While his BABIP and strand rates are sure to worsen for him no matter who he plays, the Cubs present a particularly difficult match-up for him.
On the other side, Lester has also been getting hit hard because he doesn’t have many quality pitches to offer right now.
As a lefty, he is especially vulnerable against Pittsburgh’s lineup.
Take advantage of both starters struggling with a first-half wager on the „over.“ But because both teams additionally have awful bullpen play, also invest in a full-game „over“ play.
I recommend devoting a half-unit to the first-five „over“ in addition to your half-unit to the full-game „over."
Best Bet: First-Five „over“ and Full-Game „over“ 9 runs (-105) with 5Dimes
