Cubbies Likely to Make Giants Feel Small in Wrigley Field
The Cubs bounced back from a two-game sweep to hit the run-line against the Giants on Friday. Bettors should know that the Cubs dominating San Francisco at home is nothing new.
San Francisco Giants (24-27) at Chicago Cubs (26-21)
MLB Pick: Cubs RL (-1.5)
The Cubs have pleased their largest crowds by starting 3-0 on Saturday home games. The Giants are also no friends of Wrigley Field where, dating to 2015, they are 2-11.
There is rhyme and reason to the apparent unpredictability of Chicago’s Jose Quintana (5-3, 4.47 ERA). Traditionally, Quintana has relied on a fastball-curve combo whereby he threw the former up and inside and then the latter down. But since 2016, he made his sinker a primary pitch and it has evinced decisive betting significance in 2018.
Initially, he reduced his sinker usage because he allowed a career-high ISO (isolated power; measures extra base hits) against it last year. Now, he’s throwing it more often despite those struggles continuing in April. In May, he reduced the opposing slugging percentage against this pitch from .733 to .370. His statistical improvement has only marginally to do with how he’s throwing his sinker but everything to do with which team he’s pitching against.
In April, he faced five teams who rank in the bottom three in ISO against the sinker thrown by lefties. He did very well against the Brewers twice and Miami through five innings but was hit hard by Colorado and Atlanta who rank in the upper half in the category. The trend has continued in May, where his sinker numbers are better because he has thrown it more frequently against teams that continue to suffer against it. So while he got slammed by Atlanta again in May, which ranks fifth in ISO against the sinker thrown by lefties, he pitched very well against Miami again, which ranks 27th in the category. Against teams who rank in the top 20 in ISO against the sinker from lefties, Quintana is 1-2. He allowed 17 runs in 16.1 innings against those four teams, yielding an FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) over 7.00 each time. Conversely, against teams ranking outside the top 20 in this category, Quintana is 4-1, allowing an FIP under 3.00 in four of those five starts. San Fran ranks 24th in the category and so is doomed against Quintana.
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Chris Stratton (5-3, 4.92 ERA) counters for SF. Stratton throws the four-seamer 60% of the time, but teams have been slamming his favorite pitch. Opponents’ slugging percentage against it is up from .275 in April to .509 in May. Based on the metric SLG-xSLG, (slugging minus expected slugging) the league is actually underachieving against his fastball in May. For example, the average opposing exit velocity against his pitch is up from 90.4 mph in April to 91.3 mph in May because opponents are making stronger contact with it.
Stratton is struggling even against teams who normally hit the fastball poorly. For example, the Reds, Dodgers and Phillies all rank in the bottom 11 in slugging against the fastball yet he averaged five runs allowed in those three starts with an FIP over 5 every time. Cincy and LA slugged over .600 against his fastball. Stratton is allowing a five-percent lower ground ball rate because he’s leaving pitches more frequently up in the zone and in the heart of it but less often in its lowest corners. Opponents are exploiting his weakness of pitch location and the Cubs, who rank 10th in slugging against the fastball and metrically are underachieving against this pitch in Wrigley Field, will also take advantage. At home, Kris Bryant is slugging .680 against the fastball and Javier Baez .926. Both are hitting over .310 in night games.
Overall, 21 of Chicago’s 26 wins have been on the run-line. The pitching match-up also justifies a Cubs RL play.
The Cubs bounced back from a two-game sweep to hit the run-line against the Giants on Friday. Bettors should know that the Cubs dominating San Francisco at home is nothing new.
San Francisco Giants (24-27) at Chicago Cubs (26-21)
MLB Pick: Cubs RL (-1.5)
The Cubs have pleased their largest crowds by starting 3-0 on Saturday home games. The Giants are also no friends of Wrigley Field where, dating to 2015, they are 2-11.
There is rhyme and reason to the apparent unpredictability of Chicago’s Jose Quintana (5-3, 4.47 ERA). Traditionally, Quintana has relied on a fastball-curve combo whereby he threw the former up and inside and then the latter down. But since 2016, he made his sinker a primary pitch and it has evinced decisive betting significance in 2018.
Initially, he reduced his sinker usage because he allowed a career-high ISO (isolated power; measures extra base hits) against it last year. Now, he’s throwing it more often despite those struggles continuing in April. In May, he reduced the opposing slugging percentage against this pitch from .733 to .370. His statistical improvement has only marginally to do with how he’s throwing his sinker but everything to do with which team he’s pitching against.
In April, he faced five teams who rank in the bottom three in ISO against the sinker thrown by lefties. He did very well against the Brewers twice and Miami through five innings but was hit hard by Colorado and Atlanta who rank in the upper half in the category. The trend has continued in May, where his sinker numbers are better because he has thrown it more frequently against teams that continue to suffer against it. So while he got slammed by Atlanta again in May, which ranks fifth in ISO against the sinker thrown by lefties, he pitched very well against Miami again, which ranks 27th in the category. Against teams who rank in the top 20 in ISO against the sinker from lefties, Quintana is 1-2. He allowed 17 runs in 16.1 innings against those four teams, yielding an FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) over 7.00 each time. Conversely, against teams ranking outside the top 20 in this category, Quintana is 4-1, allowing an FIP under 3.00 in four of those five starts. San Fran ranks 24th in the category and so is doomed against Quintana.
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Chris Stratton (5-3, 4.92 ERA) counters for SF. Stratton throws the four-seamer 60% of the time, but teams have been slamming his favorite pitch. Opponents’ slugging percentage against it is up from .275 in April to .509 in May. Based on the metric SLG-xSLG, (slugging minus expected slugging) the league is actually underachieving against his fastball in May. For example, the average opposing exit velocity against his pitch is up from 90.4 mph in April to 91.3 mph in May because opponents are making stronger contact with it.
Stratton is struggling even against teams who normally hit the fastball poorly. For example, the Reds, Dodgers and Phillies all rank in the bottom 11 in slugging against the fastball yet he averaged five runs allowed in those three starts with an FIP over 5 every time. Cincy and LA slugged over .600 against his fastball. Stratton is allowing a five-percent lower ground ball rate because he’s leaving pitches more frequently up in the zone and in the heart of it but less often in its lowest corners. Opponents are exploiting his weakness of pitch location and the Cubs, who rank 10th in slugging against the fastball and metrically are underachieving against this pitch in Wrigley Field, will also take advantage. At home, Kris Bryant is slugging .680 against the fastball and Javier Baez .926. Both are hitting over .310 in night games.
Overall, 21 of Chicago’s 26 wins have been on the run-line. The pitching match-up also justifies a Cubs RL play.
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