Cubs vs. Dodgers Sunday Night Baseball Preview and Best Bet
Chicago Cubs vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Sunday, June 27, 2021 at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles
Adbert Alzolay
Since Cub starter Adbert Alzolay is not as famous as his Dodger counterpart tonight, I will describe him a bit.
Alzolay is a righty who throws mostly a slider. Overall, he throws a slider, fastball, and sinker with 94.4 percent frequency.
What separates his slider from other sliders is the degree of horizontal movement that it possesses. Alzolay's slider breaks laterally to a uniquely high degree.
Especially when he locates this pitch well -- meaning towards the edge of the strike zone or not too far outside the strike zone -- he often induces the batter to swing at it and miss.
Because he throws this pitch often, he can accumulate a nice amount of strikeouts, often amounting to an average of nine or more strikeouts per nine innings.
The problem with Alzolay is his consistency on a pitch-by-pitch basis. He'll have nice moments but then allow himself to be completely vulnerable.
His vulnerability is a product mostly of location. Heat maps show that he often leaves his slider in the middle of the plate.
This is undesirable -- typically, pitchers want to locate their slider low and away from the batter.
His slider is not good enough to withstand bad location. The same can be said for his other primary pitches.
Largely because of inconsistent location. Alzolay allows 1.73 home runs per nine innings.
Alzolay vs. Dodger Batters
Currently, Alzolay is suffering poor form. He's allowed a combined total of seven runs in his past two starts, which amounted to 7.2 innings in total.
As one would expect, home runs have been even more of a problem. His opponents belted a combined total of three homers in those last two starts.
This -- recently exaggerated -- tendency to allow homers is problematic against an L.A. lineup that ranks fifth at home in launching 1.47 homers per game.
Moreover, Dodger batters match up well with Alzolay. They rank fifth in slugging against his three primary pitches from right-handed batters.
Look out, among others, for Max Muncy, who is 1-for-2 with a homer in his career against Alzolay and recently hit another homer.
Clayton Kershaw vs. Cub Batters
I dislike Dodger starter Clayton Kershaw tonight because he is facing the Cubs.
Out of all the teams that he's faced throughout his long career, his fourth-worst ERA comes against the Cubs.
Active Cub batters hit Kershaw well. In a combined total of 79 at-bats, they're hitting .253 and slugging .532 against him.
Four different Chicago batters have, in at least eight at-bats, slugging rates of over .700 in their career against Kershaw.
So look out for Javier Baez, Willson Contreras, Anthony Rizzo, and Kris Bryant.
These guys will help bring the first five innings over the posted total.
Chicago's Full-Game Advantage
The Cubs are heavy underdogs in this one simply as a result of the great respect that oddsmakers accord Kershaw.
Yet for his backers, Kershaw has been a losing bet this season.
I think his team will lose tonight because Chicago owns a full-game match-up edge in the bullpen.
Ryan Tepera, Andrew Chafin, and Craig Kimbrel are all fresh for the Cubs. Tepera owns a 2.43 ERA, Chafin's is 1.64, and Kimbrel's 0.59.
The plethora of solid relievers in Chicago helps explain why the Cubs tend to close out a long series so well.
This season, the Cubs are 5-0 in the final game of a four-game series.
In contrast, the Dodger bullpen doesn't have nearly the same combination of depth and quality as Chicago's.
L.A.'s bullpen ERA is 1.05 higher than Chicago's.
The Verdict
Both starting pitchers are slated to struggle tonight -- Chicago's because of his bad form and because he matches up poorly with L.A's lineup and the Dodgers' because Cub batters hit him very well.
In the end, the value lies with Chicago as an underdog because Kershaw doesn't have an edge on his Cub counterpart and because the Cubs own the stronger and deeper bullpen with which to close out a four-game series.
For the above reasons, invest in the first-half over and, because the price is so attractive for getting an extra run, the Cub full-game run-line.
Best Bet: First-Half Over 4 at -120 with Bovada & Cubs +1.5 at -118 with Heritage
Chicago Cubs vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Sunday, June 27, 2021 at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles
Adbert Alzolay
Since Cub starter Adbert Alzolay is not as famous as his Dodger counterpart tonight, I will describe him a bit.
Alzolay is a righty who throws mostly a slider. Overall, he throws a slider, fastball, and sinker with 94.4 percent frequency.
What separates his slider from other sliders is the degree of horizontal movement that it possesses. Alzolay's slider breaks laterally to a uniquely high degree.
Especially when he locates this pitch well -- meaning towards the edge of the strike zone or not too far outside the strike zone -- he often induces the batter to swing at it and miss.
Because he throws this pitch often, he can accumulate a nice amount of strikeouts, often amounting to an average of nine or more strikeouts per nine innings.
The problem with Alzolay is his consistency on a pitch-by-pitch basis. He'll have nice moments but then allow himself to be completely vulnerable.
His vulnerability is a product mostly of location. Heat maps show that he often leaves his slider in the middle of the plate.
This is undesirable -- typically, pitchers want to locate their slider low and away from the batter.
His slider is not good enough to withstand bad location. The same can be said for his other primary pitches.
Largely because of inconsistent location. Alzolay allows 1.73 home runs per nine innings.
Alzolay vs. Dodger Batters
Currently, Alzolay is suffering poor form. He's allowed a combined total of seven runs in his past two starts, which amounted to 7.2 innings in total.
As one would expect, home runs have been even more of a problem. His opponents belted a combined total of three homers in those last two starts.
This -- recently exaggerated -- tendency to allow homers is problematic against an L.A. lineup that ranks fifth at home in launching 1.47 homers per game.
Moreover, Dodger batters match up well with Alzolay. They rank fifth in slugging against his three primary pitches from right-handed batters.
Look out, among others, for Max Muncy, who is 1-for-2 with a homer in his career against Alzolay and recently hit another homer.
Clayton Kershaw vs. Cub Batters
I dislike Dodger starter Clayton Kershaw tonight because he is facing the Cubs.
Out of all the teams that he's faced throughout his long career, his fourth-worst ERA comes against the Cubs.
Active Cub batters hit Kershaw well. In a combined total of 79 at-bats, they're hitting .253 and slugging .532 against him.
Four different Chicago batters have, in at least eight at-bats, slugging rates of over .700 in their career against Kershaw.
So look out for Javier Baez, Willson Contreras, Anthony Rizzo, and Kris Bryant.
These guys will help bring the first five innings over the posted total.
Chicago's Full-Game Advantage
The Cubs are heavy underdogs in this one simply as a result of the great respect that oddsmakers accord Kershaw.
Yet for his backers, Kershaw has been a losing bet this season.
I think his team will lose tonight because Chicago owns a full-game match-up edge in the bullpen.
Ryan Tepera, Andrew Chafin, and Craig Kimbrel are all fresh for the Cubs. Tepera owns a 2.43 ERA, Chafin's is 1.64, and Kimbrel's 0.59.
The plethora of solid relievers in Chicago helps explain why the Cubs tend to close out a long series so well.
This season, the Cubs are 5-0 in the final game of a four-game series.
In contrast, the Dodger bullpen doesn't have nearly the same combination of depth and quality as Chicago's.
L.A.'s bullpen ERA is 1.05 higher than Chicago's.
The Verdict
Both starting pitchers are slated to struggle tonight -- Chicago's because of his bad form and because he matches up poorly with L.A's lineup and the Dodgers' because Cub batters hit him very well.
In the end, the value lies with Chicago as an underdog because Kershaw doesn't have an edge on his Cub counterpart and because the Cubs own the stronger and deeper bullpen with which to close out a four-game series.
For the above reasons, invest in the first-half over and, because the price is so attractive for getting an extra run, the Cub full-game run-line.
Best Bet: First-Half Over 4 at -120 with Bovada & Cubs +1.5 at -118 with Heritage
