Cubs vs. Cardinals Sunday Night Baseball Preview and Best Bet
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Sunday, May 23, 2021 at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Busch Stadium in St. Louis
Zach Davies
Cub starter Zach Davies is suffering his career-worst season in terms of ERA and FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding).
This season, his strikeout rate is at an all-time low relative to his other MLB seasons. He’s also walking more batters per nine innings than he ever did in any other season.
He primarily throws a sinker and a change-up. Both pitches account for 86 percent of his arsenal.
Both pitches are getting hit hard. Opposing batters hit .329 and slug .457 against his sinker. They hit .319 and slug .464 against his change-up.
His average sinker velocity is down relative to what it was last year.
While, in his last start, his average sinker velocity finally exceeded last year’s (by .1 mph), it still yielded a .429 BA.
So velocity is hardly Davies’ only problem. I suspect that location is an additional, possibly more meaningful culprit.
Heat maps show that Davies is frequently leaving his sinker in more hittable parts of the strike zone, that is, in the middle parts of the plate.
In previous years, when his sinker yielded a lower BA plus a lower slugging rate, he did a much better job of keeping this pitch in the lower parts of the strike zone.
As for his change-up, it has less horizontal movement this year and is therefore less elusive. He also lacks an effective, higher-velocity pitch that he can play his change-up off of.
Besides individual pitch quality, lack of variety must be another issue for Davies.
Starting pitchers tend to try to develop an effective third pitch because they want to last more innings without the opposing lineup figuring them out.
But opposing lineups produce higher slugging rates against Davies when they see him more times in a single game.
Davies is easier to figure out because he relies so heavily on two pitches.
Davies vs. Cardinal Batters
Because he used to play for Milwaukee — and so pitched in the same division — Davies has seen Cardinal batters a lot.
He also faced current Cardinal batters as they played for fellow NL clubs.
Four Cardinal batters have faced Davies in 10 or more at-bats.
All four of those batters — Matt Carpenter, Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt, and Yadier Molina -- hit over .300 and slug over .700 against Davies.
In games where the Cardinals have produced a significant run total, they tended to get a lot out of the middle of their lineup.
When they amassed eight runs on Wednesday against Pittsburgh, for example, Goldschmidt went 3-for-5 and Arenado added a hit.
Expect both guys to combine for similarly strong numbers tonight.
Harrison Bader is also 3-for-3 with a homer in his career against Davies.
Only Tommy Edman doesn’t hit Davies well.
But Edman has been solid this week, upping his BA by .12 and his slugging rate by .11.
So his good form could compensate for his poor history against Davies, which is a history anyhow composed of just a tiny data sample.
Three Reasons To Like Wainwright
I like Cardinal starter Adam Wainwright tonight for three reasons.
One, he has been great in bounce-back situations.
He has allowed three earned runs or more in three different outings.
In the start following each such poor performance, he allowed one or zero earned runs.
Two, he is at his best at home. While he is yielding negative betting units overall, he is producing a profit (+1.1 units) in his home starts.
Three, only one Cub player (Ian Happ) really hits him well, historically speaking, in a significant number of at-bats.
Willson Contreras has twice as many strikeouts as hits against Wainwright.
Anthony Rizzo is hitting .233 in his career against the Cardinal veteran.
In more recent history, his worst starts against the Cubs came either very late in the season or at Wrigley Field.
Verdict
Given Davies’ overall struggles and his bad history against Cardinal batters, especially the middle of the order, expect the Cardinals to produce a lot of runs.
Expect a strong performance from Wainwright given his bounce-back tendency and his history especially earlier in the season at home against Cub batters.
The Cardinal bullpen was stretched out yesterday as starter Miles Mikolas only offered four innings in a one-run game.
With St. Louis’ top relievers lacking freshness, it would be best to confine yourself to a first-half money-line play on the Cardinals.
If you don’t like the chalk, simply take the first-half run-line instead of the first-half money-line.
Best Bet: Cardinals First-Half ML at -145 with Bovada
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Sunday, May 23, 2021 at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Busch Stadium in St. Louis
Zach Davies
Cub starter Zach Davies is suffering his career-worst season in terms of ERA and FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding).
This season, his strikeout rate is at an all-time low relative to his other MLB seasons. He’s also walking more batters per nine innings than he ever did in any other season.
He primarily throws a sinker and a change-up. Both pitches account for 86 percent of his arsenal.
Both pitches are getting hit hard. Opposing batters hit .329 and slug .457 against his sinker. They hit .319 and slug .464 against his change-up.
His average sinker velocity is down relative to what it was last year.
While, in his last start, his average sinker velocity finally exceeded last year’s (by .1 mph), it still yielded a .429 BA.
So velocity is hardly Davies’ only problem. I suspect that location is an additional, possibly more meaningful culprit.
Heat maps show that Davies is frequently leaving his sinker in more hittable parts of the strike zone, that is, in the middle parts of the plate.
In previous years, when his sinker yielded a lower BA plus a lower slugging rate, he did a much better job of keeping this pitch in the lower parts of the strike zone.
As for his change-up, it has less horizontal movement this year and is therefore less elusive. He also lacks an effective, higher-velocity pitch that he can play his change-up off of.
Besides individual pitch quality, lack of variety must be another issue for Davies.
Starting pitchers tend to try to develop an effective third pitch because they want to last more innings without the opposing lineup figuring them out.
But opposing lineups produce higher slugging rates against Davies when they see him more times in a single game.
Davies is easier to figure out because he relies so heavily on two pitches.
Davies vs. Cardinal Batters
Because he used to play for Milwaukee — and so pitched in the same division — Davies has seen Cardinal batters a lot.
He also faced current Cardinal batters as they played for fellow NL clubs.
Four Cardinal batters have faced Davies in 10 or more at-bats.
All four of those batters — Matt Carpenter, Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt, and Yadier Molina -- hit over .300 and slug over .700 against Davies.
In games where the Cardinals have produced a significant run total, they tended to get a lot out of the middle of their lineup.
When they amassed eight runs on Wednesday against Pittsburgh, for example, Goldschmidt went 3-for-5 and Arenado added a hit.
Expect both guys to combine for similarly strong numbers tonight.
Harrison Bader is also 3-for-3 with a homer in his career against Davies.
Only Tommy Edman doesn’t hit Davies well.
But Edman has been solid this week, upping his BA by .12 and his slugging rate by .11.
So his good form could compensate for his poor history against Davies, which is a history anyhow composed of just a tiny data sample.
Three Reasons To Like Wainwright
I like Cardinal starter Adam Wainwright tonight for three reasons.
One, he has been great in bounce-back situations.
He has allowed three earned runs or more in three different outings.
In the start following each such poor performance, he allowed one or zero earned runs.
Two, he is at his best at home. While he is yielding negative betting units overall, he is producing a profit (+1.1 units) in his home starts.
Three, only one Cub player (Ian Happ) really hits him well, historically speaking, in a significant number of at-bats.
Willson Contreras has twice as many strikeouts as hits against Wainwright.
Anthony Rizzo is hitting .233 in his career against the Cardinal veteran.
In more recent history, his worst starts against the Cubs came either very late in the season or at Wrigley Field.
Verdict
Given Davies’ overall struggles and his bad history against Cardinal batters, especially the middle of the order, expect the Cardinals to produce a lot of runs.
Expect a strong performance from Wainwright given his bounce-back tendency and his history especially earlier in the season at home against Cub batters.
The Cardinal bullpen was stretched out yesterday as starter Miles Mikolas only offered four innings in a one-run game.
With St. Louis’ top relievers lacking freshness, it would be best to confine yourself to a first-half money-line play on the Cardinals.
If you don’t like the chalk, simply take the first-half run-line instead of the first-half money-line.
Best Bet: Cardinals First-Half ML at -145 with Bovada
