MLB Parlay Picks of the Day
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Wednesday, June 30, 2021 at 2:10 p.m. ET at Miller Park in Milwaukee
Jake Arrieta
There are several reasons why you shouldn't let Cub starter Jake Arrieta's ERA deter you from playing the "under" in this game.
What's more telling than his ERA is the 12-3 "under" record in his games this year.
Oddsmakers consistently accord Arrieta too little respect by attaching too high of an over/under in the games that he's starting.
Arrieta vs. Brewer Batters
Moreover, Arrieta typically dominates Brewer batters.
For all of his other flaws this year, he's allowed four earned runs in 11 innings against Milwaukee this season.
Active Brewer batters have mustered one home run against him in 106 career at-bats.
In those at-bats, they are hitting .226 and slugging .311 against him.
Corbin Burnes
Whereas Arrieta dominates the Brewers, Burnes dominates everybody including the Cubs.
His FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) has been under 3.00 in literally every start this season.
While leaning especially on his cutter, all of his pitches are contributing to his high strikeout rate.
While able to attack the strike zone, he doesn't make many mistakes in terms of location, as evident in his low walk and home run allowed rates.
Burnes vs. Cub Batters
In his one start against the Cubs this season, Burnes allowed two hits and zero earned runs.
This start is consistent with his performance against the Cubs in prior seasons.
Active Cub hitters are batting .158 and slugging .351 against him in a combined total of 57 at-bats.
They may have to try to hit him without Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo, both of whom are listed as 'questionable' for this game.
Daytime
The time of this game -- it takes place in the afternoon -- also contributes to an "under" play.
The "under" is hitting 67.6-percent of the time in Cub day games and in 71.4-percent of Burnes' day starts.
New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves
Wednesday, June 30, 2021 at 7:20 p.m. ET in Truist Park in Atlanta
Max Fried
Brave starter Max Fried is fully fit again after suffering a blister. Now that he's had some extra rest, he is completely fresh.
In his career, when coming off of 6+ days of rest, his ERA is at its lowest as opposed to when he gets fewer days of rest.
Fried vs. Met Batters
Throughout this season, the Mets have struggled to hit left-handed pitchers.
Currently, they rank 28th in slugging .363 against southpaws.
So Fried's numbers against active Met batters must be unsurprising.
In 85 career at-bats, they are hitting .188 and slugging .329 against Fried.
David Peterson
Met starter David Peterson's high season-long ERA fails to reflect his current strong form.
He has allowed one earned run or fewer in each of his last three starts.
Peterson vs. Brave Batters
In his one start against Atlanta this year, Peterson suffered tough luck in the sense that he yielded a .385 BABIP (batting average of balls in play) against the Braves despite doing a great job of limiting hard contact.
Peterson will flourish today against a Brave lineup that is ice cold, having scored over three runs one time since June 18.
In that one exception, Atlanta scored four runs.
Since that date, June 18, Brave batters are slugging .243 against Peterson's favorite four pitches from lefties.
Expect little from slugger Freddie Freeman, who is already batting .222 in nine career at-bats facing Peterson.
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox
Wednesday, June 30, 2021 at 8:10 p.m. ET at Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago
Bailey Ober
Many pitchers primarily throw a fastball that is merely serviceable.
Young Twin starter Bailey Ober throws one that yields a .302 slugging rate even though he throws it nearly 60-percent of the time.
His fastball benefits from his ability to locate it as he often places it along the borders of the strike zone.
Ober vs. White Sox Batters
Ober is underrated today because of his high ERA.
But I like him today because his problems have come primarily from left-handed batters.
Conversely, Ober yields a .156 BA and .267 slugging rate against right-handed batters.
The White Sox will suffer tonight for owning a righty-heavy lineup that may also miss Yoan Moncada, a rare switch-hitter in the lineup who owns more power versus righty pitchers, but is enduring shoulder discomfort.
Dylan Cease vs. Twin Batters
White Sox starter Dylan Cease relies primarily on his fastball. He mostly throws a high-velo fastball plus a slider.
Minnesota matches up well with him because it ranks third in slugging .510 against the 94-98 mph fastball from righties and it ranks third in slugging .459 against the fastball and slider from righties.
Plus, the Twins have been hitting well, lately, having amassed six or more runs in each of their last three games.
They're likely to perpetuate their positive form against Cease, who they boast a .372 BA and .535 slugging rate against in 43 career at-bats.
Look out for Jorge Polanco, who is 4-for-9 (.444) with a double and a homer in his career against Cease.
Best Bet: Parlay Cubs/Brewers First-Half Under, Mets/Braves First-Half Under 4.5 at -115, and Twins First-Half +100 at Bovada (Odds TBA)
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Wednesday, June 30, 2021 at 2:10 p.m. ET at Miller Park in Milwaukee
Jake Arrieta
There are several reasons why you shouldn't let Cub starter Jake Arrieta's ERA deter you from playing the "under" in this game.
What's more telling than his ERA is the 12-3 "under" record in his games this year.
Oddsmakers consistently accord Arrieta too little respect by attaching too high of an over/under in the games that he's starting.
Arrieta vs. Brewer Batters
Moreover, Arrieta typically dominates Brewer batters.
For all of his other flaws this year, he's allowed four earned runs in 11 innings against Milwaukee this season.
Active Brewer batters have mustered one home run against him in 106 career at-bats.
In those at-bats, they are hitting .226 and slugging .311 against him.
Corbin Burnes
Whereas Arrieta dominates the Brewers, Burnes dominates everybody including the Cubs.
His FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) has been under 3.00 in literally every start this season.
While leaning especially on his cutter, all of his pitches are contributing to his high strikeout rate.
While able to attack the strike zone, he doesn't make many mistakes in terms of location, as evident in his low walk and home run allowed rates.
Burnes vs. Cub Batters
In his one start against the Cubs this season, Burnes allowed two hits and zero earned runs.
This start is consistent with his performance against the Cubs in prior seasons.
Active Cub hitters are batting .158 and slugging .351 against him in a combined total of 57 at-bats.
They may have to try to hit him without Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo, both of whom are listed as 'questionable' for this game.
Daytime
The time of this game -- it takes place in the afternoon -- also contributes to an "under" play.
The "under" is hitting 67.6-percent of the time in Cub day games and in 71.4-percent of Burnes' day starts.
New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves
Wednesday, June 30, 2021 at 7:20 p.m. ET in Truist Park in Atlanta
Max Fried
Brave starter Max Fried is fully fit again after suffering a blister. Now that he's had some extra rest, he is completely fresh.
In his career, when coming off of 6+ days of rest, his ERA is at its lowest as opposed to when he gets fewer days of rest.
Fried vs. Met Batters
Throughout this season, the Mets have struggled to hit left-handed pitchers.
Currently, they rank 28th in slugging .363 against southpaws.
So Fried's numbers against active Met batters must be unsurprising.
In 85 career at-bats, they are hitting .188 and slugging .329 against Fried.
David Peterson
Met starter David Peterson's high season-long ERA fails to reflect his current strong form.
He has allowed one earned run or fewer in each of his last three starts.
Peterson vs. Brave Batters
In his one start against Atlanta this year, Peterson suffered tough luck in the sense that he yielded a .385 BABIP (batting average of balls in play) against the Braves despite doing a great job of limiting hard contact.
Peterson will flourish today against a Brave lineup that is ice cold, having scored over three runs one time since June 18.
In that one exception, Atlanta scored four runs.
Since that date, June 18, Brave batters are slugging .243 against Peterson's favorite four pitches from lefties.
Expect little from slugger Freddie Freeman, who is already batting .222 in nine career at-bats facing Peterson.
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox
Wednesday, June 30, 2021 at 8:10 p.m. ET at Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago
Bailey Ober
Many pitchers primarily throw a fastball that is merely serviceable.
Young Twin starter Bailey Ober throws one that yields a .302 slugging rate even though he throws it nearly 60-percent of the time.
His fastball benefits from his ability to locate it as he often places it along the borders of the strike zone.
Ober vs. White Sox Batters
Ober is underrated today because of his high ERA.
But I like him today because his problems have come primarily from left-handed batters.
Conversely, Ober yields a .156 BA and .267 slugging rate against right-handed batters.
The White Sox will suffer tonight for owning a righty-heavy lineup that may also miss Yoan Moncada, a rare switch-hitter in the lineup who owns more power versus righty pitchers, but is enduring shoulder discomfort.
Dylan Cease vs. Twin Batters
White Sox starter Dylan Cease relies primarily on his fastball. He mostly throws a high-velo fastball plus a slider.
Minnesota matches up well with him because it ranks third in slugging .510 against the 94-98 mph fastball from righties and it ranks third in slugging .459 against the fastball and slider from righties.
Plus, the Twins have been hitting well, lately, having amassed six or more runs in each of their last three games.
They're likely to perpetuate their positive form against Cease, who they boast a .372 BA and .535 slugging rate against in 43 career at-bats.
Look out for Jorge Polanco, who is 4-for-9 (.444) with a double and a homer in his career against Cease.
Best Bet: Parlay Cubs/Brewers First-Half Under, Mets/Braves First-Half Under 4.5 at -115, and Twins First-Half +100 at Bovada (Odds TBA)
