MLB Parlay for April 26: A Bet That Pays (+311)
Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves
Tuesday, April 26, 2022 at 7:20 p.m. ET at Truist Park in Atlanta
Marcus Stroman
Cub starter Marcus Stroman undeniably has an ugly ERA, but recall that this is the part of the season where individual performances stand out the strongest.
Because Stroman was blown up in just two starts, his ERA is as high as it is.
Physically, Stroman seems to be just fine. His velocity and pitch movement are what they have always been.
Therefore, he has the potential to bounce back today because he has the physical capacity to do so.
Stroman's individual performances have also been better than they see on the surface.
One underlying statistic that suggests this is Stroman's xFIP. FIP is like ERA but factors out fielding, while xFIP is like FIPbut adjusts for the league-average ratio of fly balls to home runs.
His xFIP in his last game was 1.82 and it is 3.29 on the season. These are great numbers.
I think that Stroman's xFIP has predictive validity because it indicates that he is pitching well. Because he is pitching well, his ERA is bound to improve massively.
After all, he's been yielding an unsustainably high BABIP (batting average of balls in play). A lot more batted balls that he yields will have to start turning into outs.
Stroman's Stuff
Marcus Stroman has always been most well-known for his sinker.
Although it is typically thought of as a pitch that one locates around the batter's knee, he ably locates it throughout different parts of the strike zone.
This year, Stroman shows more potential for success because he is developing his arsenal to possess more variety.
He throws his sinker less, but his split finger, which he does tend to locate low in the strike zone, according to heat maps, and his fastball more often.
These latter two pitches have hardly yielded any hits.
Good Spot
Stroman is in a great position to succeed today because he is 3-0 with a 1.50 ERA in three career starts in Atlanta's ballpark.
To be clear, Atlanta renamed SunTrust. It is now Truist Park. So the name is different, but the ballpark is the same.
Max Fried
Atlanta starter Max Fried does have pretty stats.
But he has also had it easy up to now.
As a left-handed pitcher, he has benefitted from facing teams that rank in the bottom 10 in slugging rate against left-handed pitchers.
Cub Lineup
Unlike the teams that Fried has faced (the Dodgers, Nationals, and Reds), Chicago boasts a strong and successful lineup against left-handed pitching.
The Cubs rank seventh in slugging against lefties.
Look out for Jonathan Villar, Yan Gomes, and Willson Contreras. All three guys slug at least .500 in at least four career at-bats with Fried on the mound.
Cleveland Guardians vs. Los Angeles Angels
Tuesday, April 26, 2022 at 9:38 p.m. ET at Angel Stadium in Anaheim, California
Cold
Cleveland is a cold team right now.
The Guardians have now lost four in a row. During this four-game span, they have mustered a total of seven runs.
There are too many unproductive hitters, as evident in the number of them who are batting below .200 despite producing a significant sample of at-bats.
Patrick Sandoval and Bullpen
Angel starter Patrick Sandoval has yet to allow an earned run.
A variety of quality pitches sustains him in outings, allowing him to remain unpredictable as he faces the same batters multiple times.
Specifically, he throws four pitches with over 15 percent frequency: his sinker, change-up, slider, and curveball.
I like him against Guardian batters because they rank 22nd in slugging against Sandoval's top pitches from lefties.
When he leaves the game, plenty of Angel relievers with strong ERAs are fresh or fresh enough to protect the lead.
Such relievers include Oliver Ortega, Ryan Tepera, and Aaron Loup.
Triston McKenzie
Guardian starter Triston McKenzie does not share Sandoval's variety.
Instead, McKenzie throws his four-seam fastball with 72.7-percent frequency.
Angel batters promise to succeed today because they rank eighth in slugging against this pitch from righties.
In terms of guys not named superstar Mike Trout, look out for Jo Adell, who brings a six-game hit streak into today's game.
Best Bet: Parlay Cubs ML at +150 & Angels ML at -155 at +311 odds with BetOnline
Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves
Tuesday, April 26, 2022 at 7:20 p.m. ET at Truist Park in Atlanta
Marcus Stroman
Cub starter Marcus Stroman undeniably has an ugly ERA, but recall that this is the part of the season where individual performances stand out the strongest.
Because Stroman was blown up in just two starts, his ERA is as high as it is.
Physically, Stroman seems to be just fine. His velocity and pitch movement are what they have always been.
Therefore, he has the potential to bounce back today because he has the physical capacity to do so.
Stroman's individual performances have also been better than they see on the surface.
One underlying statistic that suggests this is Stroman's xFIP. FIP is like ERA but factors out fielding, while xFIP is like FIPbut adjusts for the league-average ratio of fly balls to home runs.
His xFIP in his last game was 1.82 and it is 3.29 on the season. These are great numbers.
I think that Stroman's xFIP has predictive validity because it indicates that he is pitching well. Because he is pitching well, his ERA is bound to improve massively.
After all, he's been yielding an unsustainably high BABIP (batting average of balls in play). A lot more batted balls that he yields will have to start turning into outs.
Stroman's Stuff
Marcus Stroman has always been most well-known for his sinker.
Although it is typically thought of as a pitch that one locates around the batter's knee, he ably locates it throughout different parts of the strike zone.
This year, Stroman shows more potential for success because he is developing his arsenal to possess more variety.
He throws his sinker less, but his split finger, which he does tend to locate low in the strike zone, according to heat maps, and his fastball more often.
These latter two pitches have hardly yielded any hits.
Good Spot
Stroman is in a great position to succeed today because he is 3-0 with a 1.50 ERA in three career starts in Atlanta's ballpark.
To be clear, Atlanta renamed SunTrust. It is now Truist Park. So the name is different, but the ballpark is the same.
Max Fried
Atlanta starter Max Fried does have pretty stats.
But he has also had it easy up to now.
As a left-handed pitcher, he has benefitted from facing teams that rank in the bottom 10 in slugging rate against left-handed pitchers.
Cub Lineup
Unlike the teams that Fried has faced (the Dodgers, Nationals, and Reds), Chicago boasts a strong and successful lineup against left-handed pitching.
The Cubs rank seventh in slugging against lefties.
Look out for Jonathan Villar, Yan Gomes, and Willson Contreras. All three guys slug at least .500 in at least four career at-bats with Fried on the mound.
Cleveland Guardians vs. Los Angeles Angels
Tuesday, April 26, 2022 at 9:38 p.m. ET at Angel Stadium in Anaheim, California
Cold
Cleveland is a cold team right now.
The Guardians have now lost four in a row. During this four-game span, they have mustered a total of seven runs.
There are too many unproductive hitters, as evident in the number of them who are batting below .200 despite producing a significant sample of at-bats.
Patrick Sandoval and Bullpen
Angel starter Patrick Sandoval has yet to allow an earned run.
A variety of quality pitches sustains him in outings, allowing him to remain unpredictable as he faces the same batters multiple times.
Specifically, he throws four pitches with over 15 percent frequency: his sinker, change-up, slider, and curveball.
I like him against Guardian batters because they rank 22nd in slugging against Sandoval's top pitches from lefties.
When he leaves the game, plenty of Angel relievers with strong ERAs are fresh or fresh enough to protect the lead.
Such relievers include Oliver Ortega, Ryan Tepera, and Aaron Loup.
Triston McKenzie
Guardian starter Triston McKenzie does not share Sandoval's variety.
Instead, McKenzie throws his four-seam fastball with 72.7-percent frequency.
Angel batters promise to succeed today because they rank eighth in slugging against this pitch from righties.
In terms of guys not named superstar Mike Trout, look out for Jo Adell, who brings a six-game hit streak into today's game.
Best Bet: Parlay Cubs ML at +150 & Angels ML at -155 at +311 odds with BetOnline
