Cash In On Sunday Night Snoozer Between Cubs And Pirates
Chicago Cubs (65-58) at Pittsburgh (51-71)
When: 7 p.m. ET (ESPN)
MLB Pick: Under
Chicago's Jose Quintana (10-7, 4.11 ERA) shows strong form, having yielded two runs or fewer in each of his last three starts, despite facing some of baseball's stronger lineups like Philadelphia and Oakland. He's hardly been touchable, wracking up 26 strikeouts to one walk during this span.
What makes Quintana successful is that he knows what his best pitches are and emphasizes precisely these when runners enter scoring position. Against lefties, his sinker usage goes up from 49% overall to 67% with RISP. During this three-game span in August, both righties and lefties have one hit combined in 54 tries against his sinker. Quintana's sinker is effective with its strong lateral movement, which he commands for a higher strike rate, and its rare ability to often nail the upper parts of the strike zone, whereas one usually thinks of the sinker as a low-placed ground ball-inducing pitch.
Against righties, Quintana's curveball usage spikes from 27% overall to 38% with RISP. With the change of pace that it creates relative to other pitches, the curveball is a classic weapon against opposite-handed batters and they're hitting .177 against Quintana's curveball in August. It's difficult to hit with its funky movement produced by very distinct release points. He can occasionally elevate his curveball, but over 50% of its strikes land in the bottom row of the strike zone.
Quintana is in a great spot today because he boasts a 2.63 ERA in four career starts in Pittsburgh's PNC Park. Active Pirate batters bat .212 and slug .271 in 85 at-bats against Quintana. Starling Marte, for example, is 3-for-20 (.150) with seven strikeouts.
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Pittsburgh's Mitch Keller (1-1, 7.94 ERA) is a relatively unknown quantity who's made four professional starts. After a rough beginning, he's settled in, having allowed three runs in his past two starts combined. His ERA is very misleading as he's been the victim of bad luck evidenced by an unsustainably high .455 opposing BABIP (batting average of balls in play). His FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) is a solid 3.34.
Keller leans heavily on his fastball. But it's a good pitch, ranking in the 88th percentile in velocity and 90th in spin. It's very rare for a pitcher's fastball to rank in such a high percentile in both categories -- other pitchers who throw such a high-spin heater include some of baseball's best pitchers like Justin Verlander. Keller's fastball also has some nice tail and he likes to elevate it or place it in the bottom row of the strike zone.
When Keller runs into trouble, he amplifies his curveball usage, which is smart because opponents bat .143 against his curveball. This pitch, which he places with 57.5 percent frequency in the lowest row of the zone, plays well off his fastball by changing the batter's eye level. It also keeps him off balance by averaging 14 fewer mph than his fastball.
While it's nice to know that, in the second half of the season, Chicago ranks below-average in slugging against the fastball, the main reason I dislike Cub batters is situational. Chicago has all of four road wins in the second half of the season. After each one, they scored two, one, zero, and two runs, respectively. Expect little from Javier Baez, for example, who hits .325 at home, but .75 less on the road.
Chicago Cubs (65-58) at Pittsburgh (51-71)
When: 7 p.m. ET (ESPN)
MLB Pick: Under
Chicago's Jose Quintana (10-7, 4.11 ERA) shows strong form, having yielded two runs or fewer in each of his last three starts, despite facing some of baseball's stronger lineups like Philadelphia and Oakland. He's hardly been touchable, wracking up 26 strikeouts to one walk during this span.
What makes Quintana successful is that he knows what his best pitches are and emphasizes precisely these when runners enter scoring position. Against lefties, his sinker usage goes up from 49% overall to 67% with RISP. During this three-game span in August, both righties and lefties have one hit combined in 54 tries against his sinker. Quintana's sinker is effective with its strong lateral movement, which he commands for a higher strike rate, and its rare ability to often nail the upper parts of the strike zone, whereas one usually thinks of the sinker as a low-placed ground ball-inducing pitch.
Against righties, Quintana's curveball usage spikes from 27% overall to 38% with RISP. With the change of pace that it creates relative to other pitches, the curveball is a classic weapon against opposite-handed batters and they're hitting .177 against Quintana's curveball in August. It's difficult to hit with its funky movement produced by very distinct release points. He can occasionally elevate his curveball, but over 50% of its strikes land in the bottom row of the strike zone.
Quintana is in a great spot today because he boasts a 2.63 ERA in four career starts in Pittsburgh's PNC Park. Active Pirate batters bat .212 and slug .271 in 85 at-bats against Quintana. Starling Marte, for example, is 3-for-20 (.150) with seven strikeouts.
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Pittsburgh's Mitch Keller (1-1, 7.94 ERA) is a relatively unknown quantity who's made four professional starts. After a rough beginning, he's settled in, having allowed three runs in his past two starts combined. His ERA is very misleading as he's been the victim of bad luck evidenced by an unsustainably high .455 opposing BABIP (batting average of balls in play). His FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) is a solid 3.34.
Keller leans heavily on his fastball. But it's a good pitch, ranking in the 88th percentile in velocity and 90th in spin. It's very rare for a pitcher's fastball to rank in such a high percentile in both categories -- other pitchers who throw such a high-spin heater include some of baseball's best pitchers like Justin Verlander. Keller's fastball also has some nice tail and he likes to elevate it or place it in the bottom row of the strike zone.
When Keller runs into trouble, he amplifies his curveball usage, which is smart because opponents bat .143 against his curveball. This pitch, which he places with 57.5 percent frequency in the lowest row of the zone, plays well off his fastball by changing the batter's eye level. It also keeps him off balance by averaging 14 fewer mph than his fastball.
While it's nice to know that, in the second half of the season, Chicago ranks below-average in slugging against the fastball, the main reason I dislike Cub batters is situational. Chicago has all of four road wins in the second half of the season. After each one, they scored two, one, zero, and two runs, respectively. Expect little from Javier Baez, for example, who hits .325 at home, but .75 less on the road.
