Cubs +140 NL pennant
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signalcaller
Guest
gotta like getting the best team in the NL at that price. Love the play Hunt.
Throwback420
Diehard L.A. fan
like it hunt.... saw that earlier and kinda though tthey were cheap as well as i kinda expected -120ish
was also thinking about playing cubs @ +140.... and phills @ +290..... as i really dont see either two losing their series.
then if they meet would have the opportunity to hedge one way or another and seal a nice profit..... or just leave it and have + money on both sides for a small profit
GL bro
was also thinking about playing cubs @ +140.... and phills @ +290..... as i really dont see either two losing their series.
then if they meet would have the opportunity to hedge one way or another and seal a nice profit..... or just leave it and have + money on both sides for a small profit
GL bro
ljc_267
Mister NSFW
Kind of reminds me of the World Series run a couple years back. :smiley_acbe:
BetCrimes1984
CTG Big Brother
courtesy of Peter Gammons
Rays are 21-1 when drawing a home crowd of 30,000+ this year. Should be over that for all home games in the playoffs.
Rays are 21-1 when drawing a home crowd of 30,000+ this year. Should be over that for all home games in the playoffs.
LJ- I just think the other teams are on another playing field...Sox pitching scares no one.,,never know though..that's why i'm not messing with AL.
BC...interesting stat, but playoffs are a whole different ballgame...Drays remind me of my Tigs in 06 though...no fear.
BC...interesting stat, but playoffs are a whole different ballgame...Drays remind me of my Tigs in 06 though...no fear.
ljc_267
Mister NSFW
you never know
brewer
Fan Club of any and everyone good!
You would expect anything better from a Detroit fan?
Vapster
Awesome1#1
MusicCityGambler
Chill Winstonnn!
I don't like the matchups for the Cubs. The Dodgers are going to be very tough in a five game set, and the Phillies match up very well with the Cubs. The Cubs are the best team in the NL but I'd want +200 to bet on them.
BOL.:shake:
BOL.:shake:
BetCrimes1984
CTG Big Brother
I don't like LA at all.
Sure their pitching has looked great against NL Weak opposition (didnt look so good, with Manny present, going 0-7 SU on a road stretch through Philly & Washington - ie the other side of the country, where Chicago is basically situated relative to LA - conceding at least 5 runs in 6 of those games), but pitching is half the story.
Minus Manny - getting walked almost every AB - and what do you have left?
Kent, the king of double-plays? (LA, with Manny present, is 2-12 SU the last 14 meaningful games Kent has appeared in (2 RBIs in 53 ABs). Torre is going to feel obliged to incl. this stiff in LA's lineups)
Garciaparra, the prince of double-plays? (.241 since July 23rd, OBP .305, slugging .285)
Loney, Either, Martin & Kemp are going to hit LA's way to victory, with all of 17 p.s. ABs combined amongst themselves?
The only way the Cubs lose is if they beat themselves, imo.
Sure their pitching has looked great against NL Weak opposition (didnt look so good, with Manny present, going 0-7 SU on a road stretch through Philly & Washington - ie the other side of the country, where Chicago is basically situated relative to LA - conceding at least 5 runs in 6 of those games), but pitching is half the story.
Minus Manny - getting walked almost every AB - and what do you have left?
Kent, the king of double-plays? (LA, with Manny present, is 2-12 SU the last 14 meaningful games Kent has appeared in (2 RBIs in 53 ABs). Torre is going to feel obliged to incl. this stiff in LA's lineups)
Garciaparra, the prince of double-plays? (.241 since July 23rd, OBP .305, slugging .285)
Loney, Either, Martin & Kemp are going to hit LA's way to victory, with all of 17 p.s. ABs combined amongst themselves?
The only way the Cubs lose is if they beat themselves, imo.
sportjunky
Follower of tha truddhist philosophy
doesn't look like kent will play a major role for the team, other than as a pinch hitter.
This article is from 10 days ago when they activated him
This article is from 10 days ago when they activated him
“Pinch hitting. That’s it,” manager Joe Torre said before the Dodgers played the San Francisco Giants. “He asked me what I had envisioned for him. I told him to be ready to pinch hit. There isn’t anything more for him to do. Maybe instructional league after the season.”
the key for the dodgers is gonna be furcal. played for the first time since early may this weekend. he's playing for a contract and he's a beast so i'm not sure what to expect. the dodgers rely on a bunch of young players but they've been rollin for a while now and confidence is high. also, fwiw, kuroda shut the cubbies out at home earlier this year.
$$CMoney$$
Don of Sepcon
:whip:
I know bro...just a gut feel more than anything..no evidence.
Btw fellas..MLB is my first love and hope to be back in April in full force.
I respect the hell out of MLB cappers, and no offense to other sports but MLB cappers are a different breed..in a good way...just requires serious research and time.
Btw fellas..MLB is my first love and hope to be back in April in full force.
I respect the hell out of MLB cappers, and no offense to other sports but MLB cappers are a different breed..in a good way...just requires serious research and time.
BetCrimes1984
CTG Big Brother
Good info about Kent, thou Nomar is actually worse batting wise.
As for LA winning, makes perfect sense a team should have confidence from winning consistently - but winning against who?
In their last 24 meaningful games of the season (minus last series vs SFN), LA went 15-5 SU vs NL Weak teams, and 3-1 SU against Pittsburgh (not the greatest of non-NL Weak opponents to face, to be sure).
In their prior 27 games (dating from Manny's arrival), they went 4-6 SU vs NL Weak teams and 7-10 SU vs non-NL Weak teams.
So in other words, "all" LA has done to overhaul Arizona for a playoff spot is play good baseball against NL Weak opponents (19-11 SU), of whom only AZ could muster a record better than .457 (at 82-80, AZ had the worst record of any +.500 team in the majors), but otherwise stumbled and bumbled against non-NL Weak teams (10-11 SU).
Now, it can be observed that Colorado did exactly the same thing down the stretch last season: beat up a bunch of NL Weak teams, yet they ended up making the WS - so why can't LA? why should playing a bunch of stiffs penalise LA where it (seemingly) didn't Colorado?
(1) Colorado's 1st break was that they came up against a team with a toothless pitching staff in the short divisional series round (Philachokia), and so totaled an avg of 6.33 runs/game in a sweep while their opponent's offense (that team's supposed strength) in turn choked. Hands up those who think the Cubs have a toothless pitching staff about to concede 6.33 runs/game, and an offense that will choke behind it (which is arguably what will need to happen on the Cubs part for LA to win this series).
(2) Colorado's 2nd break was they met a fellow NL Weak team in the NLCS (Arizona). LA has no such luxury of possibly meeting another NL Weak team at anytime in these playoffs.
And how did catching these breaks ultimately serve Colorado? They left the Rockies underprepared for the buzzsaw that hit them in the form of the Red Sox. LA, unlike Colorado, isn't waiting 3 series before they meet their buzzsaw, their buzzsaw is upon them right now. My question is, as Colorado's weak ass fixture list left them unprepared for Boston, why isn't LA's weak assed fixture list going to leave them similarly unprepared here? And how ever much Boston was a better buzzsaw than the Cubs presently are, Colorado is similarly viewable as better than this LA team (remember, the Rockies headed into that WS where they didn't have HFA 15-3 SU their last 18 meaningful road games: LA is only 9-9 SU their last 18 meaningful road games headed into this series where they lack HFA. The Cubs have the NL's best home record from the last 5 seasons).
cliff notes: LA has beaten up a bunch of bums as preparation (and their road record still sucks as a consequence), while the Cubs have a phenomenal home record by NL standards.
Again from my pov, if the Cubs lose it's only because they beat themselves. Cubs play like they have been = goodnight, LA.
Throwback420
Diehard L.A. fan
Lowe and Billingsley are no joke.
Throwback420
Diehard L.A. fan
lol :shake:
absolutely...I called that in spring training...I shoulda locked up money and took it.
BetCrimes1984
CTG Big Brother
As a Red Sox fan, you can't believe how fortunate I felt when (1) the Yankees didnt wrap up the 04 ALCS in Lowe's home start (in fact, if the Yankees hadnt led the series 3-0 entering that game and therefore been arrogant about facing him as a "no-name', he would've lost the series for the Sox starting in any other fixture), and that (2) Lowe pitched vs the Cards in that subsequent WS with the Sox having an unassailable 3-0 series lead (cause if it had been 2-1 or worse, he'd have lost).
Throwback420
Diehard L.A. fan
brewer
Fan Club of any and everyone good!
11-1 in postseason ...'an_horse'
sportjunky
Follower of tha truddhist philosophy
yah the strange thing about kent is he was tearin it up in august but cooled off and once he was out of the lineup the team started peaking, so maybe there was a chemistry issue there. the guy is a known ahole, but talking shit about vin scully is a line that should never be crossed. im not sure who will play second. dewitt is the best defensive player and he's a lefty, so i was expecting him to get the start, but now that you mention nomar, he might just be the guy torre rolls with.
no doubt level of competition helped, as you showed, the sept schedule was soft. but at the same time, they faced haren and webb twice each and knocked em both around each time. the season was actually saved at the end of august, off of a 6 straight losses to the phils and nats, the dodgers were tanking just in time for a weekend set at arizona. they lost the first game, and went into the saturday-sunday matchup with haren & webb on deck, down 3 games and the season basically on the line. to the surprise of everyone, they pulled both games out and catapulted themselves back into the race. that weekend showed the team could rise to the occasion.
interesting thing about the series is with lowe opening, the dodgers have the second most proficient groundball pitcher scheduled for two starts (potentially) at wrigley (saw a stat on TV a while back with Webb waaaay out in front with a 3-1 ratio, i think lowe was around 1.5 to 1).
i agree the cubs are the better team but i just don't see the dodgers being that outclassed. with saito and furcal back they're at full strength for the first time all season.
i do know this much, the over in game 4 looks good. hopefully we'll have some solid pitching duels with the studs on the mound with the bats just waiting to break out by the time game 4 rolls around :cheers:
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BetCrimes1984
CTG Big Brother
The problem with viewing the Cubs is, no matter how good they currently are in any here-&-now, everything about them goes through the prism of this conditioning:
Its post season time, Cubs teams find a way to fuck up when it comes to post season play.
Coming up to 100 years of futility, this conditioning hasn't had anything happen to defy it, certainly not in any of our living memories. So who can say they would expect the Cubs to play the seamless ball that up until now they have been playing throughout the NL section of the playoffs before they'd expect them to make it (probably terminally) hard on themselves somewhere and in some way?
For example, no matter what the stats say, Lilley is a multi-team reject who can be a head case, the Big-Z will blow goats with no warning, Harden has a suspect dead arm at this point & Dempster is really no-one's ace... there, their whole starting staff can be written off in seconds, lol.
LA has Manny's aura around itself, Philly has a dangerous row of homer hitters who get to hit in a bandbox, and Milwaukee has the feel-good story going (26 years out in the wilderness over & done with). The Cubs have only a mountain of negativity.
BetCrimes1984
CTG Big Brother
was I behind the times - no Kuo for LA? huge loss.
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While true, you can't discount the Cubs offense. There is a lot of firepower on that team. :cheers:
BetCrimes1984
CTG Big Brother
NLDS - Dodgers versus Cubs
The following table compares the 2008 seasons of the Dodgers and Cubs, opponents in the NLDS.
<TABLE border=1><CAPTION>NL Ranks</CAPTION><TBODY><TR><TH>2008</TH><TH>Dodgers</TH><TH>Cubs</TH></TR><TR><TD>Runs/Game</TD><TD align=right>4.32 (13th)</TD><TD align=right>5.31 (1st)</TD></TR><TR><TD>Batting Avg.</TD><TD align=right>.264 (5th)</TD><TD align=right>.278 (2nd)</TD></TR><TR><TD>On-Base Average</TD><TD align=right>.333 (6th)</TD><TD align=right>.354 (1st)</TD></TR><TR><TD>/Slugging Pct.</TD><TD align=right>.399 (13th)</TD><TD align=right>.443 (1st)</TD></TR><TR><TD>ERA</TD><TD align=right>3.68 (1st)</TD><TD align=right>3.87 (3rd)</TD></TR><TR><TD>Strikeouts/9 IP</TD><TD align=right>7.4 (5th)</TD><TD align=right>7.8 (1st)</TD></TR><TR><TD>Walks/9 IP</TD><TD align=right>3.0 (2nd)</TD><TD align=right>3.4 (7th)</TD></TR><TR><TD>HR/200 IP</TD><TD align=right>17.0 (1st)</TD><TD align=right>22.1 (6th)</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
The Cubs led the majors if run difference, outscoring their opponents by 184 runs. The Dodgers came in 13th in the majors with a +52. Four teams that failed to make the playoffs finished ahead of Los Angeles, including the Mets and Cardinals. This is one of those unfair years.
Of course, the offense above looks at the whole year, and the Dodgers improved once they acquired Manny Ramirez. Starting August 1, 2008, the Cubs still led the NL with 5.29 runs per game. The Dodgers scored 4.63, 0.3 runs over their 2008 average. That was good for 7th in the NL. So while Manny did improve the team's scoring, he only moved them to the middle of the pack. (Note that the highest scoring team in the majors since the Manny trade is the Boston Red Sox, 5.79 runs per game.)
That leaves the Cubs as the superior offensive team. The Cubs get on base and hit for power extremely well; those are the two things an offense should do well. On top of that, they hit for average. A pitching staff that doesn't walk batters, such as the Dodgers, must still contend with a team that can bang out base hits on balls in the strike zone. The Cubs multidimensional offense is simply difficult to pitch around. If a staff shows a weakness, Chicago can exploit that opening.
The Cubs also trot out a Lake Woebegone offense, where all the batters are above average. In the 1-8 slots, the lowest composite OBA is .342, from the leadoff spot. The Dodgers first five slots are good, but there's a huge falloff from 6-8. Basically, the Cubs sport only one easy out in the lineup, the pitcher, while the Dodgers send out four.
Chicago's staff nearly matches the Dodgers in terms of ERA. The Cubs pitchers, with their high strikeout totals, keep balls in play low. That prevents hits. In terms of BA allowed, Cubs opponents hit just .242 to .251 for the teams facing the Dodgers. Those are the two best marks in the National League.
Not surprisingly, the Cubs won the season series, but it was closer than the record indicates:
<TABLE border=1><CAPTION>Head to Head</CAPTION><TBODY><TR><TH>2008</TH><TH>Dodgers</TH><TH>Cubs</TH></TR><TR><TD>Wins</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>5</TD></TR><TR><TD>Runs/Game</TD><TD align=right>2.57</TD><TD align=right>2.71</TD></TR><TR><TD>Walks</TD><TD align=right>23</TD><TD align=right>21</TD></TR><TR><TD>Home Runs</TD><TD align=right>4</TD><TD align=right>6</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
In May, the Dodgers lost three games at Wrigley, scoring one run in each game. They then split a four game series with the Cubs in June on the west coast. Five of the games were decided by two runs or less, and the Cubs took all five. The loss of Hong-Chih Kuo for the series won't do anything to improve those outcomes.
The Dodgers pitch very well against righties, and that may be an advantage over the Cubs. Most of the big boppers on the team, Soraino, Lee, Ramirez and Soto are all righties. Indeed, those four did not hit well against the Dodgers this season.
With comparable pitching staff and a much better Chicago offense, my nod goes to the Cubs in the Series. I rate them at about a 65% chance of defeating the Dodgers.
Cubs batters vs. Dodgers, 2008.
Dodgers batters vs. Cubs, 2008.
Cubs pitchers vs. Dodgers, 2008.
Dodgers pitchers vs. Cubs, 2008.
The following table compares the 2008 seasons of the Dodgers and Cubs, opponents in the NLDS.
<TABLE border=1><CAPTION>NL Ranks</CAPTION><TBODY><TR><TH>2008</TH><TH>Dodgers</TH><TH>Cubs</TH></TR><TR><TD>Runs/Game</TD><TD align=right>4.32 (13th)</TD><TD align=right>5.31 (1st)</TD></TR><TR><TD>Batting Avg.</TD><TD align=right>.264 (5th)</TD><TD align=right>.278 (2nd)</TD></TR><TR><TD>On-Base Average</TD><TD align=right>.333 (6th)</TD><TD align=right>.354 (1st)</TD></TR><TR><TD>/Slugging Pct.</TD><TD align=right>.399 (13th)</TD><TD align=right>.443 (1st)</TD></TR><TR><TD>ERA</TD><TD align=right>3.68 (1st)</TD><TD align=right>3.87 (3rd)</TD></TR><TR><TD>Strikeouts/9 IP</TD><TD align=right>7.4 (5th)</TD><TD align=right>7.8 (1st)</TD></TR><TR><TD>Walks/9 IP</TD><TD align=right>3.0 (2nd)</TD><TD align=right>3.4 (7th)</TD></TR><TR><TD>HR/200 IP</TD><TD align=right>17.0 (1st)</TD><TD align=right>22.1 (6th)</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
The Cubs led the majors if run difference, outscoring their opponents by 184 runs. The Dodgers came in 13th in the majors with a +52. Four teams that failed to make the playoffs finished ahead of Los Angeles, including the Mets and Cardinals. This is one of those unfair years.
Of course, the offense above looks at the whole year, and the Dodgers improved once they acquired Manny Ramirez. Starting August 1, 2008, the Cubs still led the NL with 5.29 runs per game. The Dodgers scored 4.63, 0.3 runs over their 2008 average. That was good for 7th in the NL. So while Manny did improve the team's scoring, he only moved them to the middle of the pack. (Note that the highest scoring team in the majors since the Manny trade is the Boston Red Sox, 5.79 runs per game.)
That leaves the Cubs as the superior offensive team. The Cubs get on base and hit for power extremely well; those are the two things an offense should do well. On top of that, they hit for average. A pitching staff that doesn't walk batters, such as the Dodgers, must still contend with a team that can bang out base hits on balls in the strike zone. The Cubs multidimensional offense is simply difficult to pitch around. If a staff shows a weakness, Chicago can exploit that opening.
The Cubs also trot out a Lake Woebegone offense, where all the batters are above average. In the 1-8 slots, the lowest composite OBA is .342, from the leadoff spot. The Dodgers first five slots are good, but there's a huge falloff from 6-8. Basically, the Cubs sport only one easy out in the lineup, the pitcher, while the Dodgers send out four.
Chicago's staff nearly matches the Dodgers in terms of ERA. The Cubs pitchers, with their high strikeout totals, keep balls in play low. That prevents hits. In terms of BA allowed, Cubs opponents hit just .242 to .251 for the teams facing the Dodgers. Those are the two best marks in the National League.
Not surprisingly, the Cubs won the season series, but it was closer than the record indicates:
<TABLE border=1><CAPTION>Head to Head</CAPTION><TBODY><TR><TH>2008</TH><TH>Dodgers</TH><TH>Cubs</TH></TR><TR><TD>Wins</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>5</TD></TR><TR><TD>Runs/Game</TD><TD align=right>2.57</TD><TD align=right>2.71</TD></TR><TR><TD>Walks</TD><TD align=right>23</TD><TD align=right>21</TD></TR><TR><TD>Home Runs</TD><TD align=right>4</TD><TD align=right>6</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
In May, the Dodgers lost three games at Wrigley, scoring one run in each game. They then split a four game series with the Cubs in June on the west coast. Five of the games were decided by two runs or less, and the Cubs took all five. The loss of Hong-Chih Kuo for the series won't do anything to improve those outcomes.
The Dodgers pitch very well against righties, and that may be an advantage over the Cubs. Most of the big boppers on the team, Soraino, Lee, Ramirez and Soto are all righties. Indeed, those four did not hit well against the Dodgers this season.
With comparable pitching staff and a much better Chicago offense, my nod goes to the Cubs in the Series. I rate them at about a 65% chance of defeating the Dodgers.
Cubs batters vs. Dodgers, 2008.
Dodgers batters vs. Cubs, 2008.
Cubs pitchers vs. Dodgers, 2008.
Dodgers pitchers vs. Cubs, 2008.
Throwback420
Diehard L.A. fan
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