Fondybadger
CTG Partner
Who will cover? Will the final be over or under?
Also use this thread to discuss the game and give reasoning.
Also use this thread to discuss the game and give reasoning.
CTG Consensus - Thursday Oct. 5th - FSU/NCST & TCU/UTAH discussion
- Thread starter Fondybadger
- Start date
redbearde
Pretty much a regular
I put this in my week6 thread, but I guess I ca put it here, too.
Florida St @ NCSU
NCSU +10.5 and +410
Okay, this is a revenge spot for FSU. FSU beat all hell out of Troy St (in the 2h) and Rice (all day). Against semblances of defense, FSU has had a helluva time this year. This Rice team let houston pound them all over the field for 3 quarters too...including let them come back for the victory. My point here is that Florida St isn't the vaunted DEATH KNELL of an automatic L that they used to be. NCSU has the pieces for a decent defense. They've not done so well thus far this year, but I think there's been some improvement defensively, and I know there's some talent there...even losing the D-line to the NFL, there's still some threats there that have moved in, and I still think BC is a better team, especially in the trenches, and competing with the Eagles tells me that NCSU has done something to improve.
So here comes the yearly Super Bowl for the Wolfpack. This is the game where NC State tries to get national recognition. It's a lose-lose situation for FSU. If the noles win, well, they should...especially given how shitty NCSU has played thus far. But if the noles lose, the perception is like how NC State fans felt after the Akron loss. "HOW could THAT happen....?" It's extremely important to NC State to beat FSU. It's like how Memphis would look at beating Tennessee. It doesn't happen often (once for memphis), and when it does, it's an overachievement that the Wolfpack looks back on with love and affection. It washes away the stain of losing to (ick)Akorn [even though Akron was the much better team] at home.
So FSU has little to gain by a win, a lot to lose with a loss, NC state has a lot to gain by a win, not so much to lose by a loss (who expected them to win anyway except redbearde the retard?), and so the Wolfpack comes in without the pressure the noles must be feeling. Expectations are high, the revenge factor might just play a part for the noles, and basically, I think the mindset situation really favors the wolfpack.
Statistically, up until Rice, FSU hasn't run the ball for shit - they even had trouble with Troy rushing for only 83 yards on 28 rushes. Don't tell me about Miami's sick defense. I haven't seen it since week 1 when they held FSU's rushing offense to Limp Dick, but the Noles barely got it up against Troy St. I'm still pissed at myself for drinking the Canes' koolaid last week instead of taking the dog like I should have. NCSU's defense is capable, though we haven't seen them shut down the run quite like I think they can, as i said above, I think NCSU is getting better...notably in the game versus BC. FSU may have gotten better stats lately, but against Rice, I can't say the team has gotten better yet.
FSU versus Rice is irrelavent just like Marcus Stone's big win against App St. pfft.
Against Clemson, the Noles managed a whopping 124 yards rushing on 38 rushes. Do the math. This is terrible. Granted, Clemson is better than NCSU in every way I can think of, but this is the template Chuck will use to prepare the wolfpack for this game, and NC State has a kicking game...the Noles had 226 yards of total offense. Let me repeat that: THE FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES had 226 yards of total offense for a game.
I'll say it again. Tommy Bowden and Chuck Amato, for whatever reason, know how to beat Old Man Bowden.
I haven't even mentioned FSU's fumble probs yet. 7, that's SEVEN fumbles against Troy St and they lost 3. 4 fumbles against Clemson, and they lost 2. WHOOPSY! Hey, NCSU may have found the team that can outfumble them...
This is one of those spots where the simple wisdom says that FSU is the better team and should/will beat NCSU by 2 TDs or more. But this FSU team hasn't done that against anyone of consequence. Week 1 looked good for the noles, but since then, Miami has had the worst year they've had in a long fucking time...Might we see a 4 or 5 loss team from the U???? So then is this REALLY such an impressive victory for FSU? I think not.
On the NC State side, Daniel Evans will be at home for his second start. He got broken in harshly against BC but managed a late 4th Quarter game-winning drive. Not only can he pass and get lucky sometimes, he takes advantage of the luck and GETS THE WIN. This as opposed to Stone who always seemed to manage to throw good luck away and depend on that NFL defense NCSU had last year. I don't want to overstate the kid's benefit because he is young and is about to get the hell beat out of him by a talented FSU defense. But Evans came into the southern Miss game late and though he threw a pick, he completed 8 of 11 attempts...and I figured hey, maybe he has accuracy. Maybe Marcus Stone can spell that, but he never could manage to perform it...I still didn't think the pack could manage a victory in Week 4. He was 16-33 for 166 yards, a TD, and a pick, but with a semblance of a passing threat, the Wolfpack's running game has a CHANCE. Against the purportedly tough BC D-line, the Pack ran for 143 yards on 22 rushes. 6.5 ypc!!!! AND...no fumbles for the wolfpack. IN A WHOLE GAME. AM-ZING!
On the other side, NC State allowed 175 yards on 41 rushes. 4.3ypc ain't terrible, but again, this BC O-line is supposed to be big, tough, and asskicking.
For the Wolfpack to win this FSU game, NCSU will have to not turn the ball over, contain the noles' running game, and make for damn sure to pound the ball themselves. This means another fumble-free performance. It means improving on te 3-13 3rd down conversion rate. It means Evans throwing for 20-33 instead of 16-33. It means no picks. This is all possible. Even if the pack does cough it up or Evans throws a pick, an apparent fumble-prone FSU might just return the favor. The pack will have to run the ball 30 times, at least, instead of this 22 rushes shit.
The most important aspect of this game, in my mind, though, is the experience of the last few years where we have seen Amato-coached teams compete well with FSU, and the wolfpack even beat them IN TALLAHASSEE last year. This is not the FSU team that raped NCSU in Philip Rivers' first year. It's a young team, and NCSU is more than capable of winning.
Again, FSU should be favored. This is no a situation where the line is wrong or something. But I got a bit over 400 last year IN florida st's hometown, and now I get over 400 at Carter-Finley? Well...okay. THANKS!
I'm also playing the spread as I think the above comments are correct;it'll be a low-scoring game, NC State will have a chance or 5 to win, and I honestly think they likely will convert that. ...........as long as Evans throws for 60% accuracy with no picks, the running backs don't fumble, and the O-line manages some good blocking, this is a great situation to cash in on a somewhat over-rated FSU team.
I think this line should be more like FSU -4.5 (just over a TD minus HF), and I will take my perceived 35-40% chance to win and my +410 line, and I'll do the Happy Dance.
Florida St @ NCSU
NCSU +10.5 and +410
Okay, this is a revenge spot for FSU. FSU beat all hell out of Troy St (in the 2h) and Rice (all day). Against semblances of defense, FSU has had a helluva time this year. This Rice team let houston pound them all over the field for 3 quarters too...including let them come back for the victory. My point here is that Florida St isn't the vaunted DEATH KNELL of an automatic L that they used to be. NCSU has the pieces for a decent defense. They've not done so well thus far this year, but I think there's been some improvement defensively, and I know there's some talent there...even losing the D-line to the NFL, there's still some threats there that have moved in, and I still think BC is a better team, especially in the trenches, and competing with the Eagles tells me that NCSU has done something to improve.
So here comes the yearly Super Bowl for the Wolfpack. This is the game where NC State tries to get national recognition. It's a lose-lose situation for FSU. If the noles win, well, they should...especially given how shitty NCSU has played thus far. But if the noles lose, the perception is like how NC State fans felt after the Akron loss. "HOW could THAT happen....?" It's extremely important to NC State to beat FSU. It's like how Memphis would look at beating Tennessee. It doesn't happen often (once for memphis), and when it does, it's an overachievement that the Wolfpack looks back on with love and affection. It washes away the stain of losing to (ick)Akorn [even though Akron was the much better team] at home.
So FSU has little to gain by a win, a lot to lose with a loss, NC state has a lot to gain by a win, not so much to lose by a loss (who expected them to win anyway except redbearde the retard?), and so the Wolfpack comes in without the pressure the noles must be feeling. Expectations are high, the revenge factor might just play a part for the noles, and basically, I think the mindset situation really favors the wolfpack.
Statistically, up until Rice, FSU hasn't run the ball for shit - they even had trouble with Troy rushing for only 83 yards on 28 rushes. Don't tell me about Miami's sick defense. I haven't seen it since week 1 when they held FSU's rushing offense to Limp Dick, but the Noles barely got it up against Troy St. I'm still pissed at myself for drinking the Canes' koolaid last week instead of taking the dog like I should have. NCSU's defense is capable, though we haven't seen them shut down the run quite like I think they can, as i said above, I think NCSU is getting better...notably in the game versus BC. FSU may have gotten better stats lately, but against Rice, I can't say the team has gotten better yet.
FSU versus Rice is irrelavent just like Marcus Stone's big win against App St. pfft.
Against Clemson, the Noles managed a whopping 124 yards rushing on 38 rushes. Do the math. This is terrible. Granted, Clemson is better than NCSU in every way I can think of, but this is the template Chuck will use to prepare the wolfpack for this game, and NC State has a kicking game...the Noles had 226 yards of total offense. Let me repeat that: THE FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES had 226 yards of total offense for a game.
I'll say it again. Tommy Bowden and Chuck Amato, for whatever reason, know how to beat Old Man Bowden.
I haven't even mentioned FSU's fumble probs yet. 7, that's SEVEN fumbles against Troy St and they lost 3. 4 fumbles against Clemson, and they lost 2. WHOOPSY! Hey, NCSU may have found the team that can outfumble them...
This is one of those spots where the simple wisdom says that FSU is the better team and should/will beat NCSU by 2 TDs or more. But this FSU team hasn't done that against anyone of consequence. Week 1 looked good for the noles, but since then, Miami has had the worst year they've had in a long fucking time...Might we see a 4 or 5 loss team from the U???? So then is this REALLY such an impressive victory for FSU? I think not.
On the NC State side, Daniel Evans will be at home for his second start. He got broken in harshly against BC but managed a late 4th Quarter game-winning drive. Not only can he pass and get lucky sometimes, he takes advantage of the luck and GETS THE WIN. This as opposed to Stone who always seemed to manage to throw good luck away and depend on that NFL defense NCSU had last year. I don't want to overstate the kid's benefit because he is young and is about to get the hell beat out of him by a talented FSU defense. But Evans came into the southern Miss game late and though he threw a pick, he completed 8 of 11 attempts...and I figured hey, maybe he has accuracy. Maybe Marcus Stone can spell that, but he never could manage to perform it...I still didn't think the pack could manage a victory in Week 4. He was 16-33 for 166 yards, a TD, and a pick, but with a semblance of a passing threat, the Wolfpack's running game has a CHANCE. Against the purportedly tough BC D-line, the Pack ran for 143 yards on 22 rushes. 6.5 ypc!!!! AND...no fumbles for the wolfpack. IN A WHOLE GAME. AM-ZING!
On the other side, NC State allowed 175 yards on 41 rushes. 4.3ypc ain't terrible, but again, this BC O-line is supposed to be big, tough, and asskicking.
For the Wolfpack to win this FSU game, NCSU will have to not turn the ball over, contain the noles' running game, and make for damn sure to pound the ball themselves. This means another fumble-free performance. It means improving on te 3-13 3rd down conversion rate. It means Evans throwing for 20-33 instead of 16-33. It means no picks. This is all possible. Even if the pack does cough it up or Evans throws a pick, an apparent fumble-prone FSU might just return the favor. The pack will have to run the ball 30 times, at least, instead of this 22 rushes shit.
The most important aspect of this game, in my mind, though, is the experience of the last few years where we have seen Amato-coached teams compete well with FSU, and the wolfpack even beat them IN TALLAHASSEE last year. This is not the FSU team that raped NCSU in Philip Rivers' first year. It's a young team, and NCSU is more than capable of winning.
Again, FSU should be favored. This is no a situation where the line is wrong or something. But I got a bit over 400 last year IN florida st's hometown, and now I get over 400 at Carter-Finley? Well...okay. THANKS!
I'm also playing the spread as I think the above comments are correct;it'll be a low-scoring game, NC State will have a chance or 5 to win, and I honestly think they likely will convert that. ...........as long as Evans throws for 60% accuracy with no picks, the running backs don't fumble, and the O-line manages some good blocking, this is a great situation to cash in on a somewhat over-rated FSU team.
I think this line should be more like FSU -4.5 (just over a TD minus HF), and I will take my perceived 35-40% chance to win and my +410 line, and I'll do the Happy Dance.
S
scourge
Guest
TCU should be +3 -120
Frank Costanza
Co-Inventor of the Man's Bra
Aaron Brown is out tonite for TCU . Lonta Hobbs is back but no one really knows how healthy he is.
JumpOnBoard
CTG Partner
def a typo on that TCU/Utes line....adjusted correctly now...
Croc69wheat
Bubble Boy
Need the home team in the NC State Game....and a shit ton of points would be good in the Utah Game
New to Forum...thanks for the help over the years
New to the forum guys...Been following many of you from covers, then BTB...and finally found you all here. Fondy, Rex, Jump, pags....you've been a great help over the years....thanks to all of you.
My question is, being a newbie & all....why the sudden line move on TCU game when 79% of public is still on the road team?
Thanks in advance.
Hunter
PS I'll try not to be ignorant about things I am less knowledgeable than the rest of you.:shake:
New to the forum guys...Been following many of you from covers, then BTB...and finally found you all here. Fondy, Rex, Jump, pags....you've been a great help over the years....thanks to all of you.
My question is, being a newbie & all....why the sudden line move on TCU game when 79% of public is still on the road team?
Thanks in advance.
Hunter
PS I'll try not to be ignorant about things I am less knowledgeable than the rest of you.:shake:
Fondybadger
CTG Partner
Welcome to the site Hunter - as for the line movements - someone put some big money on them... aka "smart money"
Also Hunter...when the line was TCU -2 at open the injuries became known after. Thats also a big part of this line movement.
Fellas, Covers has a article today(front page..wink wink) about "Sharp" movement on Utah...thats all I need to know.
Horn Frogs to the bank..lol
Fellas, Covers has a article today(front page..wink wink) about "Sharp" movement on Utah...thats all I need to know.
Horn Frogs to the bank..lol
Hunter, lemme add that the value on Utah is pretty much gone. I want to use last nights game as an example. That line opened UCF -1 ..and closed at 3 or 3.5 in favor of Marshall. The guys that hit Marshall when it was +1 got the push last night and almost had the win. Guys that got in too late on Marshall -3 never had a chance.
Its always on a game by game basis though
Its always on a game by game basis though
E.T.G.
One of trus baby mommas
I think I have TCU PK but anyway this is worth reading..
Weather
Forecasts are calling for thunderstorms in Raleigh, N.C. on Thursday, with a 60 percent chance of precipitation during the day and an 80 percent chance of precipitation at game time. One to three millimeters of rain is expected.
Wind is expected to travel west-northwest between 4-9 mph with the game time temperature expected to be in the mid-70s (Fahrenheit), while maximum humidity will be 90 percent. If much rain does fall on Carter-Finley Stadium, the grass surface could become soggy and affect footing on the field.
Weather
Forecasts are calling for thunderstorms in Raleigh, N.C. on Thursday, with a 60 percent chance of precipitation during the day and an 80 percent chance of precipitation at game time. One to three millimeters of rain is expected.
Wind is expected to travel west-northwest between 4-9 mph with the game time temperature expected to be in the mid-70s (Fahrenheit), while maximum humidity will be 90 percent. If much rain does fall on Carter-Finley Stadium, the grass surface could become soggy and affect footing on the field.
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S
scourge
Guest
Utah is 1-5 ATS as Home Favorites last 2 years
everythingthatsgreen said:
Who put that out, the BBC?? How much is a millimeter, or 1/1000 of a meter, which is a little over a yard. Damn, I hope my dicks longer than that. Guess I better go get it checked. It's gotta be at least 257 millimeters. Going to the store to get me a millimeter stick, and toss out the ole yard stick I used to measure things with.
By the way, FSU -9.5 and TCU +3. FSU def to hold NCSt down. The off can then surly get 10 extra. With Utah wins over SDSU & Utah St & No. AZ, not impressed. With losses to UCLA & Boise, impressed. TCU at least the caliber of Bruins & Smurfers, so will gladly take the pts.
GLTY'all. jimmyd.
