Bet On This Cross-Sport Parlay ( ) For The Weekend
Best Bet: Bills -13.5 at -110 with BetOnline & Seminoles ATS
Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills
Sunday, January 15, 2023 at 1 p.m. ET at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York
Choosing a Favorite
There are three big favorites on this NFL Wildcard Weekend.
They are Cincinnati, San Francisco, and Buffalo.
It is tempting in general to bet on heavy favorites because it is generally easy to see heavy favorites are favored so heavily.
But it seems like common sense from a logical bettor's perspective that not all of these heavy favorites will cover the spread.
So I just want to preface my argument by saying that I think Baltimore can utilize its characteristic inclination to run the ball and its star-laden defense to muck-up and stay close in its game against Cincinnati,
As for the 49er game, only four rookie quarterbacks have ever beaten a veteran in their first playoff game.
While Brock Purdy has been exceedingly impressive for the 49ers, he is about to find out that the playoffs feature a whole different environment than the regular season.
I am not saying that the 49ers will lose, but there is a good reason why rookie quarterbacks historically have these struggles in the playoffs.
So it seems rather possible that Seattle can cover the spread.
For reasons that I will explain, Buffalo is the best big favorite to include in your parlays.
Miami's Starting Quarterback
Miami's offense will be severely limited, which will entail that Buffalo won't have to score too many points in order to cover the spread.
Due to injuries to their better quarterbacks, the Dolphins will perforce start their third-string quarterback, Skylar Thompson.
Thompson is a rookie out of Kansas State.
Throughout his career at K-State, he often struggled to be efficient and generally to be either a reliable downfield passer or who could accrue a lot more touchdowns than interceptions.
Given his lack of passing prowess as a college quarterback, it was always obvious that he would struggle in the NFL.
Hence, he was not supposed to start, but he has had to.
Against the Patriots, he completed 12 of 21 pass attempts for all of 104 yards and a touchdown and interception.
In his one and only career start until now, he completed 20 of 31 pass attempts for just 152 yards against the Jets.
With a safety at the end, Miami scored 11 points in that game.
More Problems
Thompson may not be fully mobile with his ankle issue, although he did log a full practice.
More alarming is the fact that three starting Dolphin offensive linemen -- Liam Eichenberg, Terron Armstead, and Brandon Shell -- failed to practice on Thursday.
So, if the fact that Thompson, a subpar rookie, is starting isn't enough of a disaster, consider also the banged-up Dolphin offensive line.
Buffalo is such a desirable favorite because its opponent will struggle to reach a double-digit point total against any opponent.
Josh Allen
The difference in quarterback quality between these two teams is immense.
Bill quarterback Josh Allen ranks seventh in passing yards, second in passing touchdowns, and second in quarterback rating.
In terms of touchdown-to-interception ratio, Miami is actually his favorite opponent.
In two games against the Dolphins, he's thrown six touchdowns and zero interceptions.
After accruing a season-high 400 passing yards in the first meeting, a 21-19 loss in which Buffalo more than doubled Miami's total yardage, Allen threw for 304 and four touchdowns in his team's 32-29 defeat of the Dolphins.
Buffalo can evidently move the ball against Miami's defense.
Reaching 30 points -- which Buffalo is all the more likely to do since Buffalo's opponent will have greater struggles sustaining drives and keeping its defense off the field -- will entail that the Bills comfortably cover the spread.
Virginia Cavaliers vs. Florida State Seminoles
Saturday, January 14, 2023 at 4 p.m. ET at Donald L. Tucker Center in Tallahassee
Key ATS Trends
Virginia is not just struggling to cover the spread in general -- its offensive firepower in the beginning of the season still has oddsmakers overrating it, to the effect that Virginia is suffering a 2-9 ATS run.
The Cavaliers also regularly struggle to cover the spread against Florida State.
While they were undefeated, they battled the Seminoles in what was an immensely tight affair.
Despite being at home and being favored by 17,5 points Virginia struggled to win by five points.
So, the other key trend is that the Seminoles enjoy a 3-0 ATS run against Virginia.
Explanation
Virginia regularly struggles to deal with the Seminoles because of their length -- Florida State is always unusually well-sized and physical -- and their versatility.
The Cavaliers' mover-blocker offense relies on setting screens to free up guys for shot attempts.
But Florida State does not allow these screens to produce the desired effect because it switches one-through-five and uses its excellent length to contest shot attempts.
On offense, especially with two guys converting over 40 percent of their three-point attempts, the Seminoles are relatively efficient from deep, which is important because Virginia is vulnerable to opposing three-point shooters.
The Cavaliers struggle to limit opposing three-point efficiency because their pack-line defense tries to induce opponents to attempt more three-pointers.
Best Bet: Bills -13.5 at -110 with BetOnline & Seminoles ATS
Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills
Sunday, January 15, 2023 at 1 p.m. ET at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York
Choosing a Favorite
There are three big favorites on this NFL Wildcard Weekend.
They are Cincinnati, San Francisco, and Buffalo.
It is tempting in general to bet on heavy favorites because it is generally easy to see heavy favorites are favored so heavily.
But it seems like common sense from a logical bettor's perspective that not all of these heavy favorites will cover the spread.
So I just want to preface my argument by saying that I think Baltimore can utilize its characteristic inclination to run the ball and its star-laden defense to muck-up and stay close in its game against Cincinnati,
As for the 49er game, only four rookie quarterbacks have ever beaten a veteran in their first playoff game.
While Brock Purdy has been exceedingly impressive for the 49ers, he is about to find out that the playoffs feature a whole different environment than the regular season.
I am not saying that the 49ers will lose, but there is a good reason why rookie quarterbacks historically have these struggles in the playoffs.
So it seems rather possible that Seattle can cover the spread.
For reasons that I will explain, Buffalo is the best big favorite to include in your parlays.
Miami's Starting Quarterback
Miami's offense will be severely limited, which will entail that Buffalo won't have to score too many points in order to cover the spread.
Due to injuries to their better quarterbacks, the Dolphins will perforce start their third-string quarterback, Skylar Thompson.
Thompson is a rookie out of Kansas State.
Throughout his career at K-State, he often struggled to be efficient and generally to be either a reliable downfield passer or who could accrue a lot more touchdowns than interceptions.
Given his lack of passing prowess as a college quarterback, it was always obvious that he would struggle in the NFL.
Hence, he was not supposed to start, but he has had to.
Against the Patriots, he completed 12 of 21 pass attempts for all of 104 yards and a touchdown and interception.
In his one and only career start until now, he completed 20 of 31 pass attempts for just 152 yards against the Jets.
With a safety at the end, Miami scored 11 points in that game.
More Problems
Thompson may not be fully mobile with his ankle issue, although he did log a full practice.
More alarming is the fact that three starting Dolphin offensive linemen -- Liam Eichenberg, Terron Armstead, and Brandon Shell -- failed to practice on Thursday.
So, if the fact that Thompson, a subpar rookie, is starting isn't enough of a disaster, consider also the banged-up Dolphin offensive line.
Buffalo is such a desirable favorite because its opponent will struggle to reach a double-digit point total against any opponent.
Josh Allen
The difference in quarterback quality between these two teams is immense.
Bill quarterback Josh Allen ranks seventh in passing yards, second in passing touchdowns, and second in quarterback rating.
In terms of touchdown-to-interception ratio, Miami is actually his favorite opponent.
In two games against the Dolphins, he's thrown six touchdowns and zero interceptions.
After accruing a season-high 400 passing yards in the first meeting, a 21-19 loss in which Buffalo more than doubled Miami's total yardage, Allen threw for 304 and four touchdowns in his team's 32-29 defeat of the Dolphins.
Buffalo can evidently move the ball against Miami's defense.
Reaching 30 points -- which Buffalo is all the more likely to do since Buffalo's opponent will have greater struggles sustaining drives and keeping its defense off the field -- will entail that the Bills comfortably cover the spread.
Virginia Cavaliers vs. Florida State Seminoles
Saturday, January 14, 2023 at 4 p.m. ET at Donald L. Tucker Center in Tallahassee
Key ATS Trends
Virginia is not just struggling to cover the spread in general -- its offensive firepower in the beginning of the season still has oddsmakers overrating it, to the effect that Virginia is suffering a 2-9 ATS run.
The Cavaliers also regularly struggle to cover the spread against Florida State.
While they were undefeated, they battled the Seminoles in what was an immensely tight affair.
Despite being at home and being favored by 17,5 points Virginia struggled to win by five points.
So, the other key trend is that the Seminoles enjoy a 3-0 ATS run against Virginia.
Explanation
Virginia regularly struggles to deal with the Seminoles because of their length -- Florida State is always unusually well-sized and physical -- and their versatility.
The Cavaliers' mover-blocker offense relies on setting screens to free up guys for shot attempts.
But Florida State does not allow these screens to produce the desired effect because it switches one-through-five and uses its excellent length to contest shot attempts.
On offense, especially with two guys converting over 40 percent of their three-point attempts, the Seminoles are relatively efficient from deep, which is important because Virginia is vulnerable to opposing three-point shooters.
The Cavaliers struggle to limit opposing three-point efficiency because their pack-line defense tries to induce opponents to attempt more three-pointers.
