Cowboys vs. Jaguars NFL Week 15 Betting Preview: Cowboy Offense to Overwhelm Jaguar Defense
Dallas Cowboys vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, December 18, 2022 at 1 p.m. ET at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville
Best Bet: Cowboys -4.5 at -112 with BetOnline
Dallas' Pass Rush
It might be hard to fathom that Dallas owns an elite pass rush, because in recent years the Cowboy pass rush has been anything but elite.
But the fact that, last year, Dallas ranked fifth in pass pressure rate should have indicated the high potential of the Cowboy pass rush.
This year, the Cowboys are doing more than just regularly pressuring the quarterback.
Overall, they rank first in sack rate.
Tactics
A paradigmatic question for defenses is how to apply pressure to the quarterback without rendering one's defensive backs too vulnerable.
Cowboy defensive coordinator Dan Quinn's solution has proved innovative.
Instead of blitzing a lot, Quinn has resolved to employ a lot of stunts, which are a way of confusing opposing offensive linemen by having defensive linemen alter their responsibilities and paths toward the opposing quarterback.
Personnel
Of course, it also helps that the Cowboys have elite pass-rushing personnel.
Micah Parsons is elite off the edge and leads the team with 12 sacks.
Dorance Armstrong has filled in admirably for the departed Randy Gregory. Armstrong has eight sacks.
Former All-Pro and Pro Bowl selection DeMarcus Lawrence and Dante Fowler have six and five sacks, respectively.
Jacksonville Pass Protection
Don't be fooled by Jacksonville's strong ranking in pass protection.
As we saw with Dallas' pass rush last year, pass rush and pass protection quality can be difficult to discern statistically because sacks are hard to achieve and pressure is not paid as much attention to despite being indicative of quality.
Last week was a good example of Jaguar quarterback Trevor Lawrence avoiding sacks in a way that made his offensive line look way better than it is.
Lawrence will often roll out and use his mobility to stay upright.
His mobility does not alter the fact that Jaguar offensive linemen are generally struggling outside of the vastly improved former highly-rated draft prospect Jawaan Taylor.
Anyhow, Lawrence's mobility has often failed to suffice against the league's better pass rushes.
He has been sacked 13 times in three games against the top-seven pass rushes (as measured by sack rate) that he has encountered so far.
Cowboy Cornerbacks
One might suggest that Dallas' pass defense is still in trouble, despite its pass rush, because of the beleaguered state of its cornerback group.
But as long as interception machine Trevon Diggs plays, the Cowboy cornerback group will remain just fine.
Diggs is listed as 'questionable' with a thumb injury. It looks to me that he'll play.
With him still playing, top wide receivers have struggled to perform against Dallas.
Colt Michael Pittman and star Viking Justin Jefferson barely did anything against the Cowboys -- together, they combined for 49 receiving yards in their respective losses to Dallas.
Dallas' pass defense is more than fine right now.
Dallas' Run Defense
Local Cowboy fans like to express panic about Dallas' run defense quality.
While nightmares of past playoff catastrophes haunt them, the run defense was only a problem in a harsh stretch earlier in the season against Chicago and Green Bay.
But since then, the Cowboys have stymied the likes of Colt running back Jonathan Taylor and others.
Most recently, Houston ran for 114 yards on 37 carries while relying on Dallas' problems with mobile quarterbacks.
While I alluded to Lawrence's mobility, he entered last week's game as 'questionable' with a toe injury and ran for all of seven yards.
Lawrence's running ability should not be relied upon to help his team's rush attack on Sunday.
But neither should the play of Travis Etienne, the running back who barely exceeded 50 rushing yards once in his last four games.
Dallas Pass Protection
Cowboy skeptics may worry about Dallas' pass protection since its starting right tackle is injured.
But Cowboy tackles are in a great position against Jacksonville's inefficacious pass rushing combo off the edges.
Josh Allen and Travon Walker both had a sack last week, although neither player had achieved a sack since October.
Consistency is a problem for both youngsters, and Walker is anyhow listed as 'questionable' with an ankle injury.
Cowboy Pass Attack Outlook
Quarterback Dak Prescott's outlook on Sunday is extremely positive.
Jaguar defensive backs have struggled monumentally against higher-level wide receivers.
They faced Davante Adams, Pittman, and Amon-Ra St. Brown.
All three wide receivers eclipsed 110 yards receiving against the Jaguar defense.
What unites those wide receivers is that they rank top-10 in receptions.
Dallas' top wide receiver CeeDee Lamb is primed to thrive on Sunday because he, too, ranks top-10 in receptions.
Jacksonville, moreover, lacks depth at cornerback -- this is very much a position of need for the team going forward.
Their lack of depth allowed guys like DJ Chark to thrive while St. Brown put up even larger numbers.
Moreover, Jacksonville allows the third-most receiving yards to tight ends and is thus highly vulnerable to the pass-catching prowess of tight end Dalton Schultz, who is coming off an 87-yard effort against Houston.
Of course, Prescott benefits from the support of a viable one-two punch at running back that features two starting-caliber guys.
The Verdict
Expect Dallas to overwhelm Jacksonville and its insufficient secondary.
The Cowboys offer too much at the pass-catching positions, whereas Jacksonville does not offer enough to offset the effects of Dallas' elite pass rush.
For the above reasons, expect a double-digit Cowboy win.
Dallas Cowboys vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, December 18, 2022 at 1 p.m. ET at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville
Best Bet: Cowboys -4.5 at -112 with BetOnline
Dallas' Pass Rush
It might be hard to fathom that Dallas owns an elite pass rush, because in recent years the Cowboy pass rush has been anything but elite.
But the fact that, last year, Dallas ranked fifth in pass pressure rate should have indicated the high potential of the Cowboy pass rush.
This year, the Cowboys are doing more than just regularly pressuring the quarterback.
Overall, they rank first in sack rate.
Tactics
A paradigmatic question for defenses is how to apply pressure to the quarterback without rendering one's defensive backs too vulnerable.
Cowboy defensive coordinator Dan Quinn's solution has proved innovative.
Instead of blitzing a lot, Quinn has resolved to employ a lot of stunts, which are a way of confusing opposing offensive linemen by having defensive linemen alter their responsibilities and paths toward the opposing quarterback.
Personnel
Of course, it also helps that the Cowboys have elite pass-rushing personnel.
Micah Parsons is elite off the edge and leads the team with 12 sacks.
Dorance Armstrong has filled in admirably for the departed Randy Gregory. Armstrong has eight sacks.
Former All-Pro and Pro Bowl selection DeMarcus Lawrence and Dante Fowler have six and five sacks, respectively.
Jacksonville Pass Protection
Don't be fooled by Jacksonville's strong ranking in pass protection.
As we saw with Dallas' pass rush last year, pass rush and pass protection quality can be difficult to discern statistically because sacks are hard to achieve and pressure is not paid as much attention to despite being indicative of quality.
Last week was a good example of Jaguar quarterback Trevor Lawrence avoiding sacks in a way that made his offensive line look way better than it is.
Lawrence will often roll out and use his mobility to stay upright.
His mobility does not alter the fact that Jaguar offensive linemen are generally struggling outside of the vastly improved former highly-rated draft prospect Jawaan Taylor.
Anyhow, Lawrence's mobility has often failed to suffice against the league's better pass rushes.
He has been sacked 13 times in three games against the top-seven pass rushes (as measured by sack rate) that he has encountered so far.
Cowboy Cornerbacks
One might suggest that Dallas' pass defense is still in trouble, despite its pass rush, because of the beleaguered state of its cornerback group.
But as long as interception machine Trevon Diggs plays, the Cowboy cornerback group will remain just fine.
Diggs is listed as 'questionable' with a thumb injury. It looks to me that he'll play.
With him still playing, top wide receivers have struggled to perform against Dallas.
Colt Michael Pittman and star Viking Justin Jefferson barely did anything against the Cowboys -- together, they combined for 49 receiving yards in their respective losses to Dallas.
Dallas' pass defense is more than fine right now.
Dallas' Run Defense
Local Cowboy fans like to express panic about Dallas' run defense quality.
While nightmares of past playoff catastrophes haunt them, the run defense was only a problem in a harsh stretch earlier in the season against Chicago and Green Bay.
But since then, the Cowboys have stymied the likes of Colt running back Jonathan Taylor and others.
Most recently, Houston ran for 114 yards on 37 carries while relying on Dallas' problems with mobile quarterbacks.
While I alluded to Lawrence's mobility, he entered last week's game as 'questionable' with a toe injury and ran for all of seven yards.
Lawrence's running ability should not be relied upon to help his team's rush attack on Sunday.
But neither should the play of Travis Etienne, the running back who barely exceeded 50 rushing yards once in his last four games.
Dallas Pass Protection
Cowboy skeptics may worry about Dallas' pass protection since its starting right tackle is injured.
But Cowboy tackles are in a great position against Jacksonville's inefficacious pass rushing combo off the edges.
Josh Allen and Travon Walker both had a sack last week, although neither player had achieved a sack since October.
Consistency is a problem for both youngsters, and Walker is anyhow listed as 'questionable' with an ankle injury.
Cowboy Pass Attack Outlook
Quarterback Dak Prescott's outlook on Sunday is extremely positive.
Jaguar defensive backs have struggled monumentally against higher-level wide receivers.
They faced Davante Adams, Pittman, and Amon-Ra St. Brown.
All three wide receivers eclipsed 110 yards receiving against the Jaguar defense.
What unites those wide receivers is that they rank top-10 in receptions.
Dallas' top wide receiver CeeDee Lamb is primed to thrive on Sunday because he, too, ranks top-10 in receptions.
Jacksonville, moreover, lacks depth at cornerback -- this is very much a position of need for the team going forward.
Their lack of depth allowed guys like DJ Chark to thrive while St. Brown put up even larger numbers.
Moreover, Jacksonville allows the third-most receiving yards to tight ends and is thus highly vulnerable to the pass-catching prowess of tight end Dalton Schultz, who is coming off an 87-yard effort against Houston.
Of course, Prescott benefits from the support of a viable one-two punch at running back that features two starting-caliber guys.
The Verdict
Expect Dallas to overwhelm Jacksonville and its insufficient secondary.
The Cowboys offer too much at the pass-catching positions, whereas Jacksonville does not offer enough to offset the effects of Dallas' elite pass rush.
For the above reasons, expect a double-digit Cowboy win.
