Cowboys vs. Giants Thursday Night Football Picks: This Year's Giants Team Is Different
Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants
Thursday, September 26, 2024 at 8:15 p.m. ET at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford
Dallas So Far This Season
After three weeks, it is hard to look at Dallas and to like what you see from this year's team.
The Cowboys did win their season opener, but the score presents a misleading impression of how well they actually performed -- the yardage disparity suggests a much closer game.
In that season opener, Dallas dominated a Cleveland offense whose offensive line was decimated by injury.
Afterward, Dallas got two home games and lost both of them: the Saints won in a blow out and Baltimore was likewise blowing out Dallas before the Cowboys came back to make the score appear closer.
Last year, the Cowboys were 8-0 at home. They earned a reputation for being particularly dominant at home.
So, it is concerning to see them lose both of their home games so far.
Not The Same Dallas Team
Dallas' 0-2 record at home creates a strong sense that this year's Cowboys team is not nearly as strong as last year's.
Going into the season, many indeed expected Dallas to decline.
Personnel and coaching staff losses created this expectation.
On offense, Dallas lost running back Tony Pollard, making its rush attack now one of the least productive ones in terms of rushing yards per game.
On defense, the Cowboys lost their defensive coordinator, who, among other things, helped Dallas accumulate interceptions and limit opposing offensive yards.
In terms of defensive personnel, they lost key defensive linemen, whose absence now enfeebles both the pass rush and run defense.
Dallas lacks the personnel to regain its previous level of defensive quality, thanks to guys like youngster Mazi Smith failing to develop — Smith is proving to be a total bust, as his PFF grades indicate.
The Cowboys now rank 13 spots lower in total defense than they did last season.
The History Argument
The key takeaway, given the above information, is this: the best argument for Dallas on Thursday is its historical dominance against the Giants; but this argument goes out the window when we realize that this year's Dallas team is much different — in a bad way — compared to the Cowboys in the past.
My argument will be that Dallas relied, last year, on its weapons in the passing game and on the incompetence of New York's offensive line in order to cover the spread against the Giants and that the Cowboys will not be able to rely on either of these things on Thursday.
CeeDee Lamb and Brandin Cooks
Last year, CeeDee Lamb dominated the Giants, his tremendous productivity constituting a significant reason for Dallas' success against them.
This year, however, he is averaging about 30 fewer yards per game.
To explain his decline, we need to consider another regressed wide receiver, Brandin Cooks.
Cooks' productivity has been pedestrian thus far. He is really struggling. Through three games, he is averaging 25 yards per game.
Cooks, though, is supposed to be the number two wide receiver.
Remember that Dallas no longer has Amari Cooper or Michael Gallup, who is anyhow not what he was before his injury.
The Cowboys lack a threatening number two wide receiver, which allows defenses to lock in on Lamb.
In Dallas' second blowout win against the Giants last year, Cooks was also very productive. But, given his form, it is unreasonable to expect him or Lamb to pose a meaningful threat to New York's defense.
New York's Offensive Line
When Dallas first beat the Giants last year, the Cowboys relied on the complete incompetence of New York's offensive line.
The Giants' offensive line was historically bad last year.
It was the worst that PFF had ever graded.
In terms of pass protection, it ranked dead-last by a clear margin, allowing a sack on over 14 percent of its quarterback drop-backs.
New York's rush attack was likewise negatively impacted, as the G-Men were relatively inefficient on the ground.
In Week 1 of last season, Dallas mustered 265 total yards of offense but won the game 40-0, because it scored two non-offensive touchdowns, amassed seven sacks, and forced three turnovers.
Largely thanks to its offensive line, New York was inept offensively.
This year, the Giants have reduced their sack percentage by about 50 percent. Their pass attack is consequently able to be more productive, as is their rush attack.
New York's Impressive Win Over Cleveland
The Giants' most recent win in Cleveland impresses me because the Browns were a team that would have crushed last year's version of the Giants.
Cleveland has one of the best pass rushes.
But the Giants allowed sacks at a negligible rate in their win in Cleveland.
Aided by their pass rush, the Browns had the second-best pass defense last year, ranking three spots ahead of Dallas.
Quarterback Daniel Jones, though, outperformed both Dak Prescott — who faced the Browns in Week 1 — and Trevor Lawrence — who faced the Browns in Week 2.
Finishing last Sunday's game with 236 passing yards, a 70 percent completion rate, and two touchdowns to zero interceptions, Jones is able to showcase his talents now that he has competent pass protection.
New York's Stronger Pass Attack
Jones, this year, also benefits from the addition of rookie wide receiver Malik Nabers, whose excellent route-running and superb ability to separate himself from defenders makes him a favorable target for Jones to rely on.
When folks think of trusting Dallas' offense, they think of relying foremost on CeeDee. But Nabers has been objectively more productive.
Nabers has a good supporting cast, as well, comprising developing early-round draft picks, such as Wan'Dale Robinson.
While Dallas' wide receivers are bigger-named guys, we have to consider objectively who is more productive.
The Giants benefit from the play-calling of Brian Daboll, who decided this year to assume this duty.
His success as a play-caller will come as no surprise to those who recall how strong Buffalo's offense was under his leadership. In 2020, PFF listed him as the NFL's second-best play-caller.
Against a strongly declined Dallas pass defense that just allowed Lamar Jackson to have his best passing performance of the season by far, New York's well-tested pass attack should be expected to thrive.
Outlook for New York's Rush Attack
In addition to a declined Dallas pass defense, we'll also see a regressed Cowboys run defense.
Dallas ranks outside the top 20 in run defense.
The Giants, on offense, in addition to benefitting from their improved offensive line, are loving the addition of Devin Singletary at running back.
Singletary would have scored two touchdowns last week in Cleveland, but he stopped at the one-yard line so that New York could run out the clock with its 21-15 lead intact.
This year, Singletary is rejuvenating his career with a 4.7 YPC total, which is his highest since his rookie season in 2019.
Running backs are dominating Dallas' defense, with Derrick Henry most recently gashing it for 151 yards, which is 67 more rushing yards than he had gained in any game this season.
Singletary will build on Henry's success this year against Dallas, as well as that of Alvin Kamara and Kamara's backup Jamaal Williams.
Outlook for New York's Defense
The Giants' season-long defense stats are negatively skewed by the fact that their season-opener was against a Minnesota team that is looking top-caliber, as evident in Minnesota's dominant win over Houston last week.
In any case, Dallas' offense will be their second-easiest test, as measured by total offense.
Before shutting down the Browns, New York limited what has been a surprisingly dangerous Commanders offense to seven field goals.
New York's defense will establish control with its line.
The defensive line of New York helps its defense rank sixth in sack percentage, whereas Dallas' pass protection has been statistically mediocre so far.
Former first-round selections, including Dexter Lawrence, Brian Burns and Kayvon Thibodeaux, stack the Giants' uniquely strong defensive line. Last year, this trio combined for 24 sacks.
To trust an offense against the Giants' defense, you'll want that offense to have a strong rush attack, because defending the run has been New York's weakness on defense.
But the Cowboys, now minus Pollard, rank 26th in rush offense.
Their pass attack, with their regressed wide receivers, will fail to be productive against New York's defense, given the latter's pass-rushing prowess, which allows the Giants to make opposing quarterbacks so uncomfortable.
Takeaway
Dallas has declined this year significantly on both offense and defense, which, in addition to New York's improvement as a team, allows the matchup to shift in New York's favor.
We're trying to consider who has the edge in this matchup, and my argument is a mixture of pointing to ways in which the Giants are much better this year than oddsmakers seem to think and to the areas where people would normally think that Dallas would be better until they realize how disappointing the Cowboys have been.
The Cowboys do not pose a threat on the ground and, through the air, will be limited by New York's pass rush.
On offense, supported by their excellent play-calling, their breadth of high-performing talent, and the new weaknesses of Dallas' defense against both the pass and the run, the Giants will feature the balanced attack that Dallas' offense will lack.
Expect New York to find it much easier to score than Dallas.
Best Bet: Giants +4.5 at -110 with BetOnline
Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants
Thursday, September 26, 2024 at 8:15 p.m. ET at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford
Dallas So Far This Season
After three weeks, it is hard to look at Dallas and to like what you see from this year's team.
The Cowboys did win their season opener, but the score presents a misleading impression of how well they actually performed -- the yardage disparity suggests a much closer game.
In that season opener, Dallas dominated a Cleveland offense whose offensive line was decimated by injury.
Afterward, Dallas got two home games and lost both of them: the Saints won in a blow out and Baltimore was likewise blowing out Dallas before the Cowboys came back to make the score appear closer.
Last year, the Cowboys were 8-0 at home. They earned a reputation for being particularly dominant at home.
So, it is concerning to see them lose both of their home games so far.
Not The Same Dallas Team
Dallas' 0-2 record at home creates a strong sense that this year's Cowboys team is not nearly as strong as last year's.
Going into the season, many indeed expected Dallas to decline.
Personnel and coaching staff losses created this expectation.
On offense, Dallas lost running back Tony Pollard, making its rush attack now one of the least productive ones in terms of rushing yards per game.
On defense, the Cowboys lost their defensive coordinator, who, among other things, helped Dallas accumulate interceptions and limit opposing offensive yards.
In terms of defensive personnel, they lost key defensive linemen, whose absence now enfeebles both the pass rush and run defense.
Dallas lacks the personnel to regain its previous level of defensive quality, thanks to guys like youngster Mazi Smith failing to develop — Smith is proving to be a total bust, as his PFF grades indicate.
The Cowboys now rank 13 spots lower in total defense than they did last season.
The History Argument
The key takeaway, given the above information, is this: the best argument for Dallas on Thursday is its historical dominance against the Giants; but this argument goes out the window when we realize that this year's Dallas team is much different — in a bad way — compared to the Cowboys in the past.
My argument will be that Dallas relied, last year, on its weapons in the passing game and on the incompetence of New York's offensive line in order to cover the spread against the Giants and that the Cowboys will not be able to rely on either of these things on Thursday.
CeeDee Lamb and Brandin Cooks
Last year, CeeDee Lamb dominated the Giants, his tremendous productivity constituting a significant reason for Dallas' success against them.
This year, however, he is averaging about 30 fewer yards per game.
To explain his decline, we need to consider another regressed wide receiver, Brandin Cooks.
Cooks' productivity has been pedestrian thus far. He is really struggling. Through three games, he is averaging 25 yards per game.
Cooks, though, is supposed to be the number two wide receiver.
Remember that Dallas no longer has Amari Cooper or Michael Gallup, who is anyhow not what he was before his injury.
The Cowboys lack a threatening number two wide receiver, which allows defenses to lock in on Lamb.
In Dallas' second blowout win against the Giants last year, Cooks was also very productive. But, given his form, it is unreasonable to expect him or Lamb to pose a meaningful threat to New York's defense.
New York's Offensive Line
When Dallas first beat the Giants last year, the Cowboys relied on the complete incompetence of New York's offensive line.
The Giants' offensive line was historically bad last year.
It was the worst that PFF had ever graded.
In terms of pass protection, it ranked dead-last by a clear margin, allowing a sack on over 14 percent of its quarterback drop-backs.
New York's rush attack was likewise negatively impacted, as the G-Men were relatively inefficient on the ground.
In Week 1 of last season, Dallas mustered 265 total yards of offense but won the game 40-0, because it scored two non-offensive touchdowns, amassed seven sacks, and forced three turnovers.
Largely thanks to its offensive line, New York was inept offensively.
This year, the Giants have reduced their sack percentage by about 50 percent. Their pass attack is consequently able to be more productive, as is their rush attack.
New York's Impressive Win Over Cleveland
The Giants' most recent win in Cleveland impresses me because the Browns were a team that would have crushed last year's version of the Giants.
Cleveland has one of the best pass rushes.
But the Giants allowed sacks at a negligible rate in their win in Cleveland.
Aided by their pass rush, the Browns had the second-best pass defense last year, ranking three spots ahead of Dallas.
Quarterback Daniel Jones, though, outperformed both Dak Prescott — who faced the Browns in Week 1 — and Trevor Lawrence — who faced the Browns in Week 2.
Finishing last Sunday's game with 236 passing yards, a 70 percent completion rate, and two touchdowns to zero interceptions, Jones is able to showcase his talents now that he has competent pass protection.
New York's Stronger Pass Attack
Jones, this year, also benefits from the addition of rookie wide receiver Malik Nabers, whose excellent route-running and superb ability to separate himself from defenders makes him a favorable target for Jones to rely on.
When folks think of trusting Dallas' offense, they think of relying foremost on CeeDee. But Nabers has been objectively more productive.
Nabers has a good supporting cast, as well, comprising developing early-round draft picks, such as Wan'Dale Robinson.
While Dallas' wide receivers are bigger-named guys, we have to consider objectively who is more productive.
The Giants benefit from the play-calling of Brian Daboll, who decided this year to assume this duty.
His success as a play-caller will come as no surprise to those who recall how strong Buffalo's offense was under his leadership. In 2020, PFF listed him as the NFL's second-best play-caller.
Against a strongly declined Dallas pass defense that just allowed Lamar Jackson to have his best passing performance of the season by far, New York's well-tested pass attack should be expected to thrive.
Outlook for New York's Rush Attack
In addition to a declined Dallas pass defense, we'll also see a regressed Cowboys run defense.
Dallas ranks outside the top 20 in run defense.
The Giants, on offense, in addition to benefitting from their improved offensive line, are loving the addition of Devin Singletary at running back.
Singletary would have scored two touchdowns last week in Cleveland, but he stopped at the one-yard line so that New York could run out the clock with its 21-15 lead intact.
This year, Singletary is rejuvenating his career with a 4.7 YPC total, which is his highest since his rookie season in 2019.
Running backs are dominating Dallas' defense, with Derrick Henry most recently gashing it for 151 yards, which is 67 more rushing yards than he had gained in any game this season.
Singletary will build on Henry's success this year against Dallas, as well as that of Alvin Kamara and Kamara's backup Jamaal Williams.
Outlook for New York's Defense
The Giants' season-long defense stats are negatively skewed by the fact that their season-opener was against a Minnesota team that is looking top-caliber, as evident in Minnesota's dominant win over Houston last week.
In any case, Dallas' offense will be their second-easiest test, as measured by total offense.
Before shutting down the Browns, New York limited what has been a surprisingly dangerous Commanders offense to seven field goals.
New York's defense will establish control with its line.
The defensive line of New York helps its defense rank sixth in sack percentage, whereas Dallas' pass protection has been statistically mediocre so far.
Former first-round selections, including Dexter Lawrence, Brian Burns and Kayvon Thibodeaux, stack the Giants' uniquely strong defensive line. Last year, this trio combined for 24 sacks.
To trust an offense against the Giants' defense, you'll want that offense to have a strong rush attack, because defending the run has been New York's weakness on defense.
But the Cowboys, now minus Pollard, rank 26th in rush offense.
Their pass attack, with their regressed wide receivers, will fail to be productive against New York's defense, given the latter's pass-rushing prowess, which allows the Giants to make opposing quarterbacks so uncomfortable.
Takeaway
Dallas has declined this year significantly on both offense and defense, which, in addition to New York's improvement as a team, allows the matchup to shift in New York's favor.
We're trying to consider who has the edge in this matchup, and my argument is a mixture of pointing to ways in which the Giants are much better this year than oddsmakers seem to think and to the areas where people would normally think that Dallas would be better until they realize how disappointing the Cowboys have been.
The Cowboys do not pose a threat on the ground and, through the air, will be limited by New York's pass rush.
On offense, supported by their excellent play-calling, their breadth of high-performing talent, and the new weaknesses of Dallas' defense against both the pass and the run, the Giants will feature the balanced attack that Dallas' offense will lack.
Expect New York to find it much easier to score than Dallas.
Best Bet: Giants +4.5 at -110 with BetOnline
