NFL Week 15 Parlay (+264): High-Scoring Games in Jacksonville and Los Angeles
Best Bet: Parlay Cowboys/Jaguars Over 48 at -110 & Titans/Chargers Over 46.5 at -110 at +264 odds with BetOnline
Dallas Cowboys vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, December 18, 2022 at 1 p.m. ET at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville
Good Wide Receivers vs. Jaguar Pass Defense
When I wrote about my expectation for Dallas to win, I discussed my heavily reliance on Dallas' pass offense.
This reliance is, in particular, predicated on what I take to be the superb outlook to CeeDee Lamb.
To see why I like Lamb, consider Jacksonville's games against Detroit, Indianapolis, and Las Vegas.
Each team's leading wide receiver put up massive stats in those games: Detroit's Amon-Ra St. Brown caught 11 passes for 114 yards; the Colts' Michael Pittman caught 13 passes for 134 yards (he didn't play in his team's other game against Jacksonville); Raider Davante Adams amassed 10 receptions 146 receiving yards.
Viewed together, their three teams averaged around 30 points against the Jaguar defense largely because of the uniquely positive output of their best wide receiver.
What unites those three wide receivers, further, is that they are statistically top-level.
Each one ranks top 10 in receptions this season.
I like Lamb because he fits into that category: he ranks 10thin receptions right now.
Jaguar defensive backs cannot handle high-quality wide receivers. So, Lamb, too, will prove too much for them.
Trevor Lawrence's Outlook
In my discussion of this game, I emphasized Dallas' pass rush.
The Cowboys' elite pass rush does give them an edge with decisive implications for the spread.
But what will happen on all those pass attempts in which Jaguar quarterback Trevor Lawrence stays upright?
Dallas is missing two of its top three cornerbacks to injury, which Jacksonville can take advantage of with the duo of Zay Jones and Christian Kirk.
Both wide receivers rank top-15 in the NFL in receptions while Kirk is also more of a big-play threat who has a nose for the end zone.
As does Dallas, Jacksonville has the running back personnel to keep the opponent honest.
Both pass attacks enjoy sufficient support to generate a high combined scoring output in this contest.
Tennessee Titans vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Sunday, December 18, 2022 at 4:25 p.m. ET at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California
King Henry
Derrick Henry looked like his usual, dominant self last week.
He amassed 121 rushing yards and a touchdown on 17 carries.
Henry ran the ball so few times because the Jaguars generated a strong lead and big leads characteristically make it undesirable for the opponent to run the ball.
The Titan star repeatedly beasted the Jaguar defense, using his immense combination of speed and physicality to prove too difficult to tackle.
Charger Run Defense
Under its current head coach, L.A. is well-known for attaching negligible priority to run defense.
This negligible priority facilitates the following statistical reality: the Chargers rank 28that limiting the opponent's rushing yards per game.
How many better running backs are there to take advantage of their weakness in run defending than the NFL's second-leading rusher?
So far, Henry has 1,199 rushing yards.
Titan Injuries
Three defensive backs are, at best, limited in practice.
Four more are already on injured reserve.
Now, injuries are common, and, at this point in the season, they affect every unit, and it's generally not worth thinking much about.
But the Titan secondary is uniquely depleted.
Titan Pass Defense
Even when Tennessee's secondary was healthier, the unit struggled against the pass.
These struggles are evident in the following stat: Tennessee ranks 31stat limiting opposing pass yards.
Further debilitated by injuries to key pass rushers, such as Denico Autry, the Titan pass defense is especially vulnerable on the road.
Justin Herbert's Outlook
Rising star Justin Herbert is well-equipped to exploit Tennessee's defensive weakness.
Herbert, the NFL's second-leading passer, benefits from finally having his top wide receivers healthy.
The mismatches in the secondary will result in immense scoring from the Charger pass attack.
Parlay Verdict
Both Cowboy/Jaguar and Titan/Charger games will be high-scoring ones in which all four offenses can feel comfortable doing what they want to do.
Aside from the big-play threat posed by Derrick Henry, these teams will primarily rely on strong wide receivers facing outmatched secondaries to pass their way into high-scoring outputs.
Best Bet: Parlay Cowboys/Jaguars Over 48 at -110 & Titans/Chargers Over 46.5 at -110 at +264 odds with BetOnline
Dallas Cowboys vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, December 18, 2022 at 1 p.m. ET at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville
Good Wide Receivers vs. Jaguar Pass Defense
When I wrote about my expectation for Dallas to win, I discussed my heavily reliance on Dallas' pass offense.
This reliance is, in particular, predicated on what I take to be the superb outlook to CeeDee Lamb.
To see why I like Lamb, consider Jacksonville's games against Detroit, Indianapolis, and Las Vegas.
Each team's leading wide receiver put up massive stats in those games: Detroit's Amon-Ra St. Brown caught 11 passes for 114 yards; the Colts' Michael Pittman caught 13 passes for 134 yards (he didn't play in his team's other game against Jacksonville); Raider Davante Adams amassed 10 receptions 146 receiving yards.
Viewed together, their three teams averaged around 30 points against the Jaguar defense largely because of the uniquely positive output of their best wide receiver.
What unites those three wide receivers, further, is that they are statistically top-level.
Each one ranks top 10 in receptions this season.
I like Lamb because he fits into that category: he ranks 10thin receptions right now.
Jaguar defensive backs cannot handle high-quality wide receivers. So, Lamb, too, will prove too much for them.
Trevor Lawrence's Outlook
In my discussion of this game, I emphasized Dallas' pass rush.
The Cowboys' elite pass rush does give them an edge with decisive implications for the spread.
But what will happen on all those pass attempts in which Jaguar quarterback Trevor Lawrence stays upright?
Dallas is missing two of its top three cornerbacks to injury, which Jacksonville can take advantage of with the duo of Zay Jones and Christian Kirk.
Both wide receivers rank top-15 in the NFL in receptions while Kirk is also more of a big-play threat who has a nose for the end zone.
As does Dallas, Jacksonville has the running back personnel to keep the opponent honest.
Both pass attacks enjoy sufficient support to generate a high combined scoring output in this contest.
Tennessee Titans vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Sunday, December 18, 2022 at 4:25 p.m. ET at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California
King Henry
Derrick Henry looked like his usual, dominant self last week.
He amassed 121 rushing yards and a touchdown on 17 carries.
Henry ran the ball so few times because the Jaguars generated a strong lead and big leads characteristically make it undesirable for the opponent to run the ball.
The Titan star repeatedly beasted the Jaguar defense, using his immense combination of speed and physicality to prove too difficult to tackle.
Charger Run Defense
Under its current head coach, L.A. is well-known for attaching negligible priority to run defense.
This negligible priority facilitates the following statistical reality: the Chargers rank 28that limiting the opponent's rushing yards per game.
How many better running backs are there to take advantage of their weakness in run defending than the NFL's second-leading rusher?
So far, Henry has 1,199 rushing yards.
Titan Injuries
Three defensive backs are, at best, limited in practice.
Four more are already on injured reserve.
Now, injuries are common, and, at this point in the season, they affect every unit, and it's generally not worth thinking much about.
But the Titan secondary is uniquely depleted.
Titan Pass Defense
Even when Tennessee's secondary was healthier, the unit struggled against the pass.
These struggles are evident in the following stat: Tennessee ranks 31stat limiting opposing pass yards.
Further debilitated by injuries to key pass rushers, such as Denico Autry, the Titan pass defense is especially vulnerable on the road.
Justin Herbert's Outlook
Rising star Justin Herbert is well-equipped to exploit Tennessee's defensive weakness.
Herbert, the NFL's second-leading passer, benefits from finally having his top wide receivers healthy.
The mismatches in the secondary will result in immense scoring from the Charger pass attack.
Parlay Verdict
Both Cowboy/Jaguar and Titan/Charger games will be high-scoring ones in which all four offenses can feel comfortable doing what they want to do.
Aside from the big-play threat posed by Derrick Henry, these teams will primarily rely on strong wide receivers facing outmatched secondaries to pass their way into high-scoring outputs.
