Counselor's Week 1 Pick (and question)
- Thread starter counselor
- Start date
broadwayjoe
May 5Dimes MLB 2nd place
gl counselor...i think i'd have to lean that way as well..
wizardofodd
Resident Newlywed
I had all those stats and my pc got a virus and I lost everything. Yea its pretty high around 84% actually, when the team favored also covers.
Pretty much means that only about 15% of the times does the spread even matter in a game.
Pretty much means that only about 15% of the times does the spread even matter in a game.
Troutman
Calculated Risk Taker
Is that for the history of the NFL? Seems unbelievable that the dogs dont cover.
wizardofodd
Resident Newlywed
Not the entire history in the NFL, but from what I can remember its been above 75% since like 02, when I first started looking into this, but dont quote me on that number. All I can say is that it is a very very high percentage. I didnt track the spread, such at -3 or below, I just kept track of all games.
For example, I got 41 games that had lines on them this weekend in college football. Here was the breakdown on them...
There was 1 push, so we will make that to 40 total games then
Out of 40 games, 35 of those games the spread did not matter. If the fav won, they also covered the spread, and if the dog covered, they also won SU.
So out of 40 games, the spread came into effect in only 5 games, thats only 12.5% of games where that mattered. (hope i did my math correctly)
Not saying this is an easy way of winning games, but picking the SU winner and hoping for them to cover, you have a good chance they will.
They put spreads out there to balance out action. The books will make money no matter what the outcome is in the longrun.
For example, I got 41 games that had lines on them this weekend in college football. Here was the breakdown on them...
There was 1 push, so we will make that to 40 total games then
Out of 40 games, 35 of those games the spread did not matter. If the fav won, they also covered the spread, and if the dog covered, they also won SU.
So out of 40 games, the spread came into effect in only 5 games, thats only 12.5% of games where that mattered. (hope i did my math correctly)
Not saying this is an easy way of winning games, but picking the SU winner and hoping for them to cover, you have a good chance they will.
They put spreads out there to balance out action. The books will make money no matter what the outcome is in the longrun.
counselor
President of Fondy Fanclub
I played this last Sat. well before the shooting. Personally, and b/c it happened early enough in the week, I think it's more motivation than distraction.
spanishshark
Youngest guy on the forum
Good luck on your play :cheers: I had leaned Tenn. but I'm staying away. Hope you nail it.
Troutman
Calculated Risk Taker
Something that I remember from losing 50% of my bankroll opening the first three weeks of last years season is this, and BAR had warned me as well, The favs cover at an alarming rate, no matter what the spread they cover, it seems that Vegas is setting the trap for the public favs. After week three the dogs and the unpopular picks start cashing. With that in mind, this fits that thought process perfectly.
BlitzBandit
Friend of CTG
I would think you'd have to omit New England from that trend.. seeing as to how they are always favored by 50 pts.. hehe.
gl this week bud
gl this week bud
my thoughts exactly
:shake:
MusicCityGambler
Chill Winstonnn!
:cheers::shake: I'm considering doubling my bets on the Titans.
